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Friday, February 7, 2020

Hock Lian Seng - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
08/02/19 Lim & Tan Hock Lian Seng 0.33 0 Buy on weakness

Stock calls for 7 February 2020

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/07/20 OCBC A-Reit 3.3 3.59 Buy
02/07/20 DBS Vickers Ascendas India Trust 1.65 1.85 Buy
02/07/20 UOB Kay Hian DBS 25.7 28.65 Buy
02/07/20 DMG & Partners Delfi 0.96 1.68 Buy DCF
02/07/20 DBS Vickers Jumbo 0.335 0.38 Buy PER23x FY20
02/07/20 CIMB Manulife US Reit 1.07 1.13 Add DDM
02/07/20 Kim Eng Manulife US Reit 1.07 1.15 Buy DDM
02/07/20 DBS Vickers Sembcorp Industries 2.16 2.2 Hold
02/07/20 Citi Research Sembcorp Industries 2.16 2.8 Buy
02/07/20 OCBC Sembcorp Industries 2.16 2.13 Hold
02/07/20 UOB Kay Hian Sembcorp Industries 2.16 2.17 Hold Buy @ $2.05
02/07/20 Lim & Tan Sembcorp Industries 2.16 0 Hold
02/07/20 DMG & Partners Sembcorp Industries 2.16 2.68 Buy Sum of parts, PER10x FY20

Singapore has exported coronavirus to the UK.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/third-uk-coronavirus-patient-quarantine-214100995.html

Singapore is famous for the wrong reason again.  SG has exported coronavirus to the UK.

It looks like SG is fast becoming a transmission hub because SG has exported coronavirus to Malaysia, South Korea, and the UK.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/02/the-regional-countries-are-starting-to.html

Thursday, February 6, 2020

The US is digging its own grave!

https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-administration-denying-more-tariff-exemption-requests-11580736641

There is no doubt that China cannot fulfill its obligations under the Phase 1 deal.

The US is having a myopic view by not extending tariff exemption to US firms procuring China products.  Why?

This denial will cause US prices to go up and create inflation when the economy is not doing well.  Stagflation is a very difficult issue to resolve.  The US is digging its own grave because it wants to reduce China's imports deliberately.  The US firms have no choice but to increase prices or shift out for their own survival.

MIT: Recession is coming!

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/05/70percent-chance-of-recession-in-next-six-months-study-from-mit-and-state-street-finds.html

Why are we not surprised that a recession will be coming?

We've stated back in 2019 that March 2020 would be the end of a good period.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/12/the-recession-constellation-are.html

China has acknowledged that it cannot fulfill the US-China phase 1 deal.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/china-likely-considering-disaster-clause-060457370.html

Just as we projected in April 2019, China is unable to fulfill the US-China phase 1 deal now.  Even without the virus outbreak, China also couldn't fulfill the deal because the set targets were unrealistic.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/01/many-analysts-are-casting-doubts-on.html

Therefore, US exports to China won't increase significantly for the next few months.  It will be a blessing for the US if China doesn't reduce US imports due to poor local consumption.

Ho Bee - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/26/19 Lim & Tan Ho Bee 2.51 0 Buy
03/28/19 UOB Kay Hian Ho Bee 2.5 2.79 Buy RNAV (30% discount)
04/01/19 Lim & Tan Ho Bee 2.52 0 Buy
06/28/19 UOB Kay Hian Ho Bee 2.38 2.79 Buy
11/19/19 Lim & Tan Ho Bee 2.34 0 Buy

HMI - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/23/19 phillip HMI 0.540 0.77 Buy
02/13/19 UOB Kay Hian HMI 0.535 0.73 Buy DCF
02/14/19 phillip HMI 0.550 0.77 Buy DCF
05/14/19 Kim Eng HMI 0.540 0.68 Buy DCF, PER27x FY20
05/15/19 phillip HMI 0.530 0.73 Buy DCF
05/15/19 CIMB HMI 0.530 0.68 Add DCF
05/15/19 UOB Kay Hian HMI 0.530 0.73 Buy DCF
05/16/19 Kim Eng HMI 0.545 0.66 Buy DCF
06/18/19 UOB Kay Hian HMI 0.635 0.73 Buy DCF
07/08/19 UOB Kay Hian HMI 0.660 0.73 Accept offer offer at $0.73
07/08/19 Kim Eng HMI 0.660 0.66 Hold DCF, accept offer at $0.73
07/08/19 CIMB HMI 0.660 0.68 Add offer at $0.73
07/09/19 phillip HMI 0.720 0.73 Accept offer offer at $0.73
08/20/19 Lim & Tan HMI 0.720 0.73 Accept offer offer at $0.73
08/21/19 Kim Eng HMI 0.720 0.73 Hold offer at $0.73

Hi-P - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/08/19 Kim Eng Hi-P 0.965 0.68 Sell PB0.8x
02/22/19 DBS Vickers Hi-P 1.05 1.12 Hold PER10x FY19
02/25/19 Kim Eng Hi-P 1.14 1.22 Hold PB1.5x
03/13/19 Lim & Tan Hi-P 1.75 0 Avoid overvalued
04/09/19 Kim Eng Hi-P 1.63 1.22 Sell PB1.5x FY19
05/06/19 DBS Vickers Hi-P 1.44 1.41 Hold PER12x FY19
05/06/19 Kim Eng Hi-P 1.44 1.22 Sell PB1.5x FY19
06/11/19 Kim Eng Hi-P 1.29 1.22 Hold PB1.5x FY19
07/19/19 DBS Vickers Hi-P 1.43 1.41 Hold PER12x FY19
08/05/19 DBS Vickers Hi-P 1.34 1.32 Hold PER12x FY20
10/10/19 Kim Eng Hi-P 1.19 1.21 Hold PB1.5x FY19
11/01/19 DBS Vickers Hi-P 1.44 1.39 Hold
11/01/19 Kim Eng Hi-P 1.44 1.34 Sell PB1.5x FY20

Stock calls for 6 February 2020

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/06/20 Tayrona Clearbridge 0.139 0.41 Overweight
02/06/20 DBS Vickers Comfortdelgro 2.14 2.45 Buy DCF, PER18.1x FY20
02/06/20 UOB Kay Hian First Resources 1.78 2.1 Buy
02/06/20 DMG & Partners Manulife US Reit 1.04 1.12 Buy DDM
02/06/20 DBS Vickers Manulife US Reit 1.04 1.15 Buy DCF
02/06/20 Lim & Tan Manulife US Reit 1.04 0 Hold
02/06/20 CIMB SATS 4.46 4.07 Reduce
02/06/20 CIMB SIA 8.59 8.46 Hold

Total reported coronavirus cases in China.

The official figures from the Central Government might have underdeclared the true situation in China.  Let's just take these with a heavy pinch of salt.


Wednesday, February 5, 2020

Haw Par - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/28/19 Lim & Tan Haw Par 12.39 0 Buy

GSS Energy - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/07/19 DMG & Partners GSS Energy 0.097 0.19 Buy
03/04/19 DMG & Partners GSS Energy 0.112 0.17 Buy DCF
05/14/19 DMG & Partners GSS Energy 0.081 0.08 Neutral DCF
06/06/19 DMG & Partners GSS Energy 0.069 0.08 Neutral
08/20/19 DMG & Partners GSS Energy 0.074 0.08 Neutral DCF
10/08/19 DMG & Partners GSS Energy 0.066 0.08 Neutral DCF

Grand Venture - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
04/04/19 CIMB Grand Venture 0.25 0.34 Add PER10x FY20
08/19/19 CIMB Grand Venture 0.22 0.22 Hold

Stock calls for 5 February 2020

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/05/20 Phillip ART 1.24 1.53 Buy DDM
02/05/20 Lim & Tan CSE Global 0.51 0.68 Buy
02/05/20 UOB Kay Hian Food Empire 0.66 0.89 Buy

The real situation in Wuhan.

https://nypost.com/2020/01/24/coronavirus-outbreak-video-shows-dead-bodies-in-halls-of-china-hospital/

There is speculation that the true situation in China is 10x more than the official numbers.

The cremation facilities in Wuhan are working 24/7 now to burn the corpses and this has been on-going for the past few days.

 If the death toll is only 490, the cremation facilities will not need to operate 24/7 for the past few days to burn the corpses.  Many corpses are piling up at the cremation facilities now.

China has acknowledged that the coronavirus has mutated.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/04/researchers-say-the-coronavirus-may-be-more-contagious-than-current-data-shows.html

OMG!  This virus will spread faster and infect more people because it is more potent now.

The regional countries are starting to blame Singapore for spreading the coronavirus.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/singapore-business-meeting-linked-malaysian-054110183.html

The regional countries are starting to blame Singapore for being a transmission hub now because SG has exported coronavirus to Malaysia and South Korea.

Look like SG is being famous for the wrong reason now.

Becareful! The stock markets are being artificially supported now!

The stock markets are artificially inflated now.  Why?

Many listed companies will suffer from declining revenues due to the coronavirus outbreak because of reduced human activities.  However, these stock prices stay elevated artificially.

When the numbers of infectious cases and death tolls keep rising, the stock markets also keep rising.  Does this make any sense at all?  This makes no sense at all because the virus outbreak has not reached its peak and there is no sign of the outbreak abating.  This is especially true when China is not providing a true figure about its infectious cases and fatality rates.


US suspended flights to Hong Kong due to local transmission.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/transport/major-us-airlines-add-hong-kong-to-china-flight-suspensions

Singapore also has 4 local transmission cases and 24 infected cases that surpass HK's.

Is the US going to suspend flights to SG because SG is also an air hub too?

Hangzhou is in lockdown now!

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/hangzhou-and-taizhou-cities-far-from-virus-epicentre-implement-12388714

The virus outbreak is spreading in China as more cities are in lockdown.  Hangzhou is just about 100++km away from Shanghai.

Community transmission is already happening in China!

Tuesday, February 4, 2020

The coronavirus human-to-human transmission has started in Singapore.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/wuhan-virus-coronavirus-singapore-community-spread-tourists-12389314

The coronavirus human-to-human transmission has started in Singapore.

Singapore is a densely populated country and this poses a high risk for any virus transmission.

I hope that our medical practices and procedures can contain the virus transmission.

Golden Energy - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/13/19 phillip Golden Energy 0.245 0.36 Buy
03/07/19 phillip Golden Energy 0.235 0.3 Buy PER10x
04/26/19 phillip Golden Energy 0.215 0.3 Buy
05/24/19 phillip Golden Energy 0.198 0.24 Accumulate PER10x
06/03/19 phillip Golden Energy 0.198 0.24 Accumulate
07/04/19 phillip Golden Energy 0.225 0.24 Accumulate
08/23/19 phillip Golden Energy 0.188 0.19 Neutral PER10x

Golden Agri - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/03/19 UOB Kay Hian Golden Agri 0.245 0.2 Sell
01/28/19 DMG & Partners Golden Agri 0.27 0.23 Sell Sum of parts, PER10x, cut from $0.39
02/20/19 OCBC Golden Agri 0.255 0.24 Hold
02/27/19 DMG & Partners Golden Agri 0.28 0.23 Sell Sum of parts
02/28/19 UOB Kay Hian Golden Agri 0.28 0.21 Sell
03/01/19 CIMB Golden Agri 0.275 0.23 Reduce Sum of parts (10% discount)
03/01/19 OCBC Golden Agri 0.275 0.27 Hold
04/09/19 OCBC Golden Agri 0.315 0.29 Hold PB0.65x
04/09/19 CIMB Golden Agri 0.315 0.23 Reduce
04/22/19 UOB Kay Hian Golden Agri 0.295 0.21 Sell
05/14/19 OCBC Golden Agri 0.275 0.29 Hold
05/15/19 DMG & Partners Golden Agri 0.275 0.23 Sell Sum of parts
05/27/19 OCBC Golden Agri 0.265 0.27 Hold
05/28/19 CIMB Golden Agri 0.26 0.23 Reduce Sum of parts (10% discount)
05/28/19 UOB Kay Hian Golden Agri 0.26 0.21 Sell
08/16/19 DMG & Partners Golden Agri 0.295 0.22 Sell Sum of parts
08/19/19 OCBC Golden Agri 0.29 0.27 Sell
09/30/19 DMG & Partners Golden Agri 0.23 0.25 Neutral Sum of parts
10/15/19 UOB Kay Hian Golden Agri 0.21 0.16 Sell PER13x FY20
11/14/19 DMG & Partners Golden Agri 0.265 0.25 Neutral Sum of parts
11/15/19 OCBC Golden Agri 0.245 0.26 Hold
11/22/19 UOB Kay Hian Golden Agri 0.235 0.27 Hold
11/22/19 CIMB Golden Agri 0.235 0.23 Reduce Sum of parts (10% discount)
01/20/20 DMG & Partners Golden Agri 0.235 0.27 Buy Sum of parts

GL Ltd - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/07/19 Lim & Tan GL Ltd 0.735 1.76 Buy Sum of parts

Stock calls for 4 February 2020

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/04/20 DBS Vickers A-Reit 3.13 3.45 Buy
02/04/20 DBS Vickers ART 1.26 1.5 Buy
02/04/20 DBS Vickers Ascendas India Trust 1.58 1.65 Buy
02/04/20 DBS Vickers CDL Hospitality 1.56 1.75 Buy
02/04/20 DMG & Partners Comfortdelgro 2.13 2.38 Neutral DCF
02/04/20 DBS Vickers Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.84 2.95 Buy
02/04/20 DBS Vickers Keppel DC Reit 2.27 2.4 Buy
02/04/20 DBS Vickers Keppel Reit 1.21 1.45 Buy
02/04/20 DBS Vickers Mapletree Industrial 2.78 3 Buy
02/04/20 DBS Vickers Mapletree Logistics 1.85 1.9 Buy
02/04/20 UOB Kay Hian SATS 4.49 4.8 Hold
02/04/20 UOB Kay Hian SIA 8.49 9.1 Hold
02/04/20 UOB Kay Hian SIA Engineering 2.58 3.13 Buy
02/04/20 Amfrasers Soilbuild Reit 0.5 0.55 Neutral
02/04/20 DBS Vickers Starhill 0.715 0.8 Buy DCF
02/04/20 CIMB UMS 0.925 0.96 Hold BVPS
02/04/20 DMG & Partners UOB 25.3 25.8 Neutral GGM, PB1.11x FY20

Guangzhou has fallen!

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-02-03/Coronavirus-detected-on-doorknob-in-S-China-s-Guangzhou-NMua1LcOWY/index.html

The coronavirus has spread to Guangzhou.

It looks like community transmission has occurred in China.

China is trying very hard to keep Beijing safe now.  All hell will break loose if Beijing cannot be free from the virus outbreak.

China can stabilize its stock markets but not the real economy.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-market-regulator-guidance/china-regulator-urges-fund-managers-not-to-sell-shares-unless-they-face-redemptions-sources-idUSKBN1ZX0C4

China is trying to stabilize its financial sector by asking fund managers not to sell stocks and also pump monetary liquidity into its financial system.  Although China will be able to rein in the financial repercussions from the virus outbreak, the real economy will be badly affected because consumption will drop into the abyss.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-oil-demand-plunged-20-231351018.html

China's oil demand had plunged by 20% since the start of the outbreak.

The other sectors like retail, tourism, F&B, transportation, etc, are all badly affected because the Chinese are trying to cut down on human interactions.  When there is no human activity, there is no economic value.  Any monetary or fiscal policy will be useless in stimulating the economy unless the virus can be contained or eliminated.

The whole world will be severely affected when China starts to reduce its imports significantly due to the rapid deterioration in its local consumption.

Monday, February 3, 2020

Is the January 2020 PMI an aberration?


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The ISM PMI rose to 50.9 in Jan 2020 primarily due to a huge increase in the new order that also led to increases in customers’ inventories and production.

The prices rose to 53.3 due to an increase in imports and a reduction in the local raw material.  This PMI might be a precursor to an improvement in the next US GDP growth.  However, the coronavirus epidemic might also thwart this turnaround.  Therefore, we need to observe the epidemic situation closely to determine if this turnaround in US economic growth will materialize in the foreseeable future or not.


http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/01/the-us-ism-pmi-declined-again-in.html

Geo Energy - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/04/19 phillip Geo Energy 0.176 0.245 Buy
02/13/19 phillip Geo Energy 0.198 0.245 Buy
03/18/19 phillip Geo Energy 0.183 0.245 Buy
03/25/19 phillip Geo Energy 0.186 0.215 Accumulate PER10x
03/26/19 Amfrasers Geo Energy 0.182 0.19 Hold DCF
04/26/19 phillip Geo Energy 0.176 0.215 Accumulate
05/29/19 phillip Geo Energy 0.148 0.15 Neutral PER10x
06/03/19 phillip Geo Energy 0.149 0.15 Neutral
07/04/19 phillip Geo Energy 0.155 0.15 Neutral
08/29/19 Amfrasers Geo Energy 0.15 0.14 Neutral DCF
09/24/19 Amfrasers Geo Energy 0.148 0.14 Neutral DCF