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Tuesday, February 11, 2020

Stock calls for 11 February 2020

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
02/11/20AmfrasersAEM1.882.57Outperform
02/11/20Kim EngAEM1.882.58Buy
02/11/20DIRCapitaCommercial2.042.29Outperform
02/11/20DMG & PartnersCSE Global0.530.69BuyDCF
02/11/20UOB Kay HianGenting0.850.95Buy
02/11/20DBS VickersHutchison Port0.1610.17Hold
02/11/20AmfrasersManulife US Reit1.051.11Neutral
02/11/20UOB Kay HianNetlink11.05BuyDCF
02/11/20UOB Kay HianOxley0.340.49Buy
02/11/20Lim & TanPanUnited0.3650.56BuyPB2x FY21
02/11/20OCBCSIA Engineering2.592.41Sell
02/11/20Kim EngUMS0.941.13Buy

IMF gives warning about Japan's economy.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-imf-japan/imf-warns-of-coronavirus-hit-to-japans-economy-via-tourism-trade-idUSKBN2041WB

IMF is right about China's impact on Japan's economy.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/japan-trade-surplus-fell-90-because-of.html

If Japan has a 10% drop in China shipments, its economy will be badly affected and China has started to reduce its imports. Thus, Japan will definitely be impacted.  Moreover, Japan has the highest infected cases outside of China.


Hot news! Coronavirus is airborne!

https://www.msn.com/en-xl/asia/asia-top-stories/china-confirms-coronavirus-is-airborne/ar-BBZP4OL?li=BBP34wH

China has confirmed that coronavirus is airborne.  No wonder the infectious rate is so high and China still cannot contain the virus outbreak with city lockdown.

However, the stock markets seem to take this virus outbreak in stride despite the fact that the infected cases and death tolls are increasing.


Monday, February 10, 2020

Beijing, Shanghai and Chongqing are in lockdown now.

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3873964

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3874064

We can say with certainty that China's economic growth for the 1st and 2nd quarters will be affected by this virus outbreak.  The 2nd quarter will be worse than the 1st quarter because the 2nd quarter will reflect the full economic impacts.

Hopefully, China can protect its 3rd and 4th quarters for 2020.

HRnetGroup - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
01/02/19DMG & PartnersHRnetGroup0.81.18BuyDCF
02/25/19DMG & PartnersHRnetGroup0.7951.06BuyDCF
02/26/19DBS VickersHRnetGroup0.81.05BuyPER15x FY19, ex-cash
03/13/19DMG & PartnersHRnetGroup0.791.06Buy
03/26/19CIMBHRnetGroup0.7651.03Add
05/07/19DMG & PartnersHRnetGroup0.771.06BuyDCF
05/13/19DMG & PartnersHRnetGroup0.770.94BuyDCF
05/14/19DBS VickersHRnetGroup0.760.85HoldPER16x FY19, ex-cash
06/06/19DMG & PartnersHRnetGroup0.710.94Buy
06/13/19CIMBHRnetGroup0.721.01AddPER18x CY20
08/14/19DMG & PartnersHRnetGroup0.660.94BuyDCF
10/15/19DMG & PartnersHRnetGroup0.580.94Buy
11/11/19CIMBHRnetGroup0.640.83Add
11/11/19DMG & PartnersHRnetGroup0.640.81BuyDCF

Hotel Properties - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
02/27/19Lim & TanHotel Properties3.760Hold
04/17/19OCBCHotel Properties3.884.74Buy
07/15/19OCBCHotel Properties3.694.74Buy

Hongkong Land - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
01/17/19DBS VickersHongkong Land6.927.86Buy
01/17/19CitibankHongkong Land6.925.9Sell
03/01/19DBS VickersHongkong Land6.778.02BuyRNAV (40% discount)
03/01/19CitibankHongkong Land6.776.45Sell
05/10/19DBS VickersHongkong Land6.978.02BuyRNAV (40% discount)
08/02/19DBS VickersHongkong Land6.097.93Buy
08/05/19DBS VickersHongkong Land6.027.7BuyRNAV (40% discount)
08/06/19CIMBHongkong Land5.747.4Add
08/06/19CitibankHongkong Land5.745.85Sell
12/12/19DBS VickersHongkong Land5.476.64BuyRNAV (45% discount)

Stock calls for 10 February 2020

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
02/10/20OCBCCapitaRetail China1.521.57Hold
02/10/20DBS VickersCapitaRetail China1.521.8Buy
02/10/20OCBCFrasers Logistics1.271.37Hold
02/10/20DBS VickersGenting0.861.2Buy
02/10/20DBS VickersNetlink1.011.04Buy
02/10/20UOB Kay HianOCBC10.8612.8Buy
02/10/20DBS VickersSIA8.5810.4Buy
02/10/20Lim & TanSIA Engineering2.610Hold
02/10/20UOB Kay HianSingapore Post0.890.99HoldSum of parts
02/10/20DBS VickersSingapore Post0.890.85HoldPER17x FY21
02/10/20OCBCSingapore Post0.890.96Hold
02/10/20DBS VickersSingtel3.323.8Buy
02/10/20UOB Kay HianSingtel3.323.32HoldDCF

Red alert - China has another bird flu outbreak in Sichuan after Hunan.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/energy-commodities/china-reports-first-h5n6-bird-flu-in-sichuan-poultry-farm-ministry

China has another variant of the bird flu (H5N6) outbreak in Sichuan after Hunan's (H5N1).

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/02/red-alert-h5n1-bird-flu-outbreak-in.html

omg! Travellers are shunning Singapore!

https://www.straitstimes.com/world/middle-east/coronavirus-qatar-kuwait-advise-citizens-to-avoid-travel-to-singapore

https://www.asiaone.com/asia/coronavirus-not-just-china-travellers-also-avoiding-singapore-and-japan

The middle east countries have issued a travel alert to Singapore and many travellers are shunning Singapore because Singapore is one of the top 3 infected countries.  This will definitely impact the tourism and hospitality sectors.


Saturday, February 8, 2020

Guangzhou and Shenzhen are in lockdown now.

https://www.dimsumdaily.hk/following-guangzhou-housing-estates-in-shenzhen-is-now-in-lockdown-to-prevent-virus-spread/

Omg! The situation in China is getting very bad.

More than 70 cities are in lockdown and more than 100m people are trapped in these Chinese cities.

However, the virus outbreak is not subsiding as more cities are in lockdown.

Baltic dry index - 431

Today, Thursday, February 06 2020, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 1 point, reaching 431 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
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Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 790

Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

Bad news! China has started to reduce its imports.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinese-gas-buyer-cnooc-declares-064044988.html

The reduction in commodity imports will have a multiplier effect on other sectors.  There is a significant reduction in China's consumption now and this will affect the global economy.

Friday, February 7, 2020

Coronavirus updates!

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Singapore is one of the top 3 epicentres in the world and SG has exported the virus to Malaysia, South Korea and the UK.

Singapore raises risk alert to orange!

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/government-economy/singapore-raises-risk-alert-for-novel-coronavirus-to-orange

SG government raises risk alert to orange and advises organizers to cancel or defer non-essential large scale events.

Is SG airshow essential?  of course not!  However, our government deems it as essential and insists that it must carry on.

https://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/major-summit-on-eve-of-singapore-airshow-canceled-on-coronavirus-fears

Hong Leong Finance - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/28/19 Lim & Tan Hong Leong Finance 2.71 0 Buy
04/26/19 Lim & Tan Hong Leong Finance 2.8 0 Buy

Hong Leong Asia - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/28/20 Lim & Tan Hong Leong Asia 0.625 0 Buy on weakness