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Monday, February 24, 2020

Manulife US Reit - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
01/02/19DMG & PartnersManulife US Reit0.770.92Buy
01/02/19DBS VickersManulife US Reit0.770.88BuyDCF
02/12/19Lim & TanManulife US Reit0.8550Hold
02/12/19DMG & PartnersManulife US Reit0.8550.94BuyDDM
02/12/19DBS VickersManulife US Reit0.8550.92BuyDCF
02/26/19AmfrasersManulife US Reit0.8350.95Buy
03/13/19DMG & PartnersManulife US Reit0.850.94Buy
03/25/19Kim EngManulife US Reit0.8651BuyDDM
04/25/19Lim & TanManulife US Reit0.870Hold
04/26/19DMG & PartnersManulife US Reit0.8650.94BuyDDM
04/26/19DBS VickersManulife US Reit0.8650.92Buy
04/26/19Kim EngManulife US Reit0.8651BuyDDM
04/30/19AmfrasersManulife US Reit0.880.97BuyDDM
05/02/19DMG & PartnersManulife US Reit0.870.96BuyDDM
05/29/19Kim EngManulife US Reit0.861BuyDDM
06/06/19DMG & PartnersManulife US Reit0.8450.96Buy
06/17/19DBS VickersManulife US Reit0.871BuyDDM
06/25/19Kim EngManulife US Reit0.8651Buy
07/04/19DMG & PartnersManulife US Reit0.880.96Buy
07/12/19DMG & PartnersManulife US Reit0.8750.98BuyDDM
08/15/19AmfrasersManulife US Reit0.890.98outperform
08/15/19DMG & PartnersManulife US Reit0.890.98BuyDDM
08/19/19Kim EngManulife US Reit0.891BuyDDM
08/23/19DBS VickersManulife US Reit0.8951.1BuyDCF
09/11/19DMG & PartnersManulife US Reit0.9150.98Buy
09/20/19Kim EngManulife US Reit0.911.05BuyDDM
09/20/19DMG & PartnersManulife US Reit0.911BuyDDM
09/20/19AmfrasersManulife US Reit0.911.01outperform
10/02/19DMG & PartnersManulife US Reit0.8951Buy
10/11/19DBS VickersManulife US Reit0.9051.1BuyDCF
11/01/19CIMBManulife US Reit0.9151.12AddDDM
11/05/19DMG & PartnersManulife US Reit0.921BuyDDM
11/05/19DBS VickersManulife US Reit0.921.1Buy
11/05/19Kim EngManulife US Reit0.921.05Buy
12/02/19AmfrasersManulife US Reit0.9651.03outperform
12/10/19DMG & PartnersManulife US Reit1.021Buy
12/13/19DMG & PartnersManulife US Reit11.1BuyDDM
01/08/20DMG & PartnersManulife US Reit0.991.1Buy
02/06/20DMG & PartnersManulife US Reit1.041.12BuyDDM
02/06/20DBS VickersManulife US Reit1.041.15BuyDCF
02/06/20Lim & TanManulife US Reit1.040Hold
02/07/20CIMBManulife US Reit1.071.13AddDDM
02/07/20Kim EngManulife US Reit1.071.15BuyDDM
02/11/20AmfrasersManulife US Reit1.051.11Neutral

Lippo Malls - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
02/21/20CIMBLippo Malls0.2350.24HoldDDM

Stock calls for 24 February 2020

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
02/24/20AmfrasersComfortdelgro2.022.28OutperformPER17.5x FY20
02/24/20phillipOCBC11.0212.1AccumulateGGM, PB1.11x FY20
02/24/20DMG & PartnersOCBC11.0211.2NeutralGGM, PB1.03x FY20
02/24/20UOB Kay HianOCBC11.0212.68Buy
02/24/20DBS VickersSasseur0.8150.93BuyDCF
02/24/20Kim EngSasseur0.8150.95Buy
02/24/20DMG & PartnersSembcorp Industries2.012.33BuySum of parts, PER10x FY20
02/24/20phillipSheng Siong1.291.41AccumulatePER25x FY20
02/24/20DMG & PartnersSheng Siong1.291.42BuyDCF & PER22x
02/24/20DBS VickersSheng Siong1.291.45BuyPER25x FY20
02/24/20Lim & TanST Engineering4.240Hold
02/24/20PhillipStarhub1.521.7AccumlateEV/Ebitda6.5x FY20
02/24/20phillipUOB25.6827.8AccumulateGGM, PB1.2x FY20
02/24/20DMG & PartnersUOB25.6825.2NeutralGGM, PB1.07x FY20
02/24/20DBS VickersUOB25.6827.2BuyGGM, PB1.1x FY20
02/24/20DMG & PartnersVenture16.7719.3BuyPER15x FY20
02/24/20UOB Kay HianVenture16.7719.62Buy
02/24/20UOB Kay HianWilmar4.114.6Buy
02/24/20DBS VickersWilmar4.114.6BuySum of parts, PER17.1x FY20

Italy has fallen!


Italy is having a major virus outbreak now!

Italy will be severely affected by this outbreak because it is already facing a recession.  Furthermore, its government doesn't have a strong resolution like China to contain the outbreak. 

Saturday, February 22, 2020

The global semiconductor industry will be impacted by the virus outbreak in Japan & South Korea.


It is pretty obvious that Japan and South Korea have an uncontrollable virus outbreak.

This outbreak will impact the semiconductor and memory (dram) chips sectors since these 2 countries are major players in the global technology industry.

Many global technology firms will be impacted by the shutdowns of semiconductor firms in Japan and South Korea.

Baltic dry index - 465

Today, Wednesday, February 19 2020, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 15 points, reaching 465 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
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Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 791


Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

Friday, February 21, 2020

What's wrong with Haidilao?

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/chinas-citic-aibank-lend-haidilao-043207731.html

Haidilao has about 550 outlets in China and almost all the outlets are closed because of the virus outbreak.

The daily loss is around RMB$80m for all the outlet closures.

As long as the virus outbreak is not contained, taking on more debts will not resolve Haidilao's operational problems.  There is nothing Haidilao can do when there is no customer.


Lian Beng - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
01/16/19Lim & TanLian Beng0.5150Buy on weakness
01/14/20Lim & TanLian Beng0.5250Buy

Lendlease Reit - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
10/15/19DIRLendlease Reit0.941.01outperform
12/06/19DBS VickersLendlease Reit0.921.05BuyDCF
02/12/20DBS VickersLendlease Reit0.911.05Buy

KSH - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
02/15/19OCBCKSH0.520.81Buy
04/17/19OCBCKSH0.5350.81Buy
05/31/19Lim & TanKSH0.450Buy
06/03/19OCBCKSH0.450Cease coverage
11/12/19Lim & TanKSH0.4650Buy
01/28/20Lim & TanKSH0.4150Buy on weakness

Stock calls for 21 February 2020

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
02/21/20TayronaAsian Healthcare0.1920.305OverweightDDM, PER14.5x FY22
02/21/20DBS VickersIfast Corp1.021.1HoldDDM
02/21/20CIMBLippo Malls0.2350.24HoldDDM
02/21/20DBS VickersPerennial Reit0.520.83BuyRNAV (55% discount)
02/21/20Lim & TanPropnex0.530.68Buy
02/21/20CIMBSasseur0.820.85Add
02/21/20UOB Kay HianSembcorp Marine1.21.21HoldBuy @ $1.05
02/21/20DMG & PartnersSembcorp Marine1.21.45Buy
02/21/20DBS VickersSembcorp Marine1.21.35HoldPB1.3x FY20
02/21/20CIMBSembcorp Marine1.21.2Hold
02/21/20UOB Kay HianStarhub1.51.45HoldBuy @ $1.25
02/21/20DMG & PartnersStarhub1.51.63NeutralDCF
02/21/20DBS VickersStarhub1.51.72Buy
02/21/20CIMBStarhub1.51.8AddDCF
02/21/20DMG & PartnersUG Healthcare0.2350.33BuyPER9.2x FY21
02/21/20UOB Kay HianValuetronics0.710.85Buy
02/21/20CIMBWilmar4.044.58AddSum of parts
02/21/20DMG & PartnersWilmar4.044.77BuySum of parts
02/21/20UOB Kay HianWilmar4.044.75Buy

China can stabilize its stock markets but not the real economy. - Part 3

The economic fissures are starting to show up in China now.

Peking University's founder group is defaulting on its bonds but the government will save this company because it is a university-linked enterprise.

https://www.reuters.com/article/china-markets-default/update-1-chinas-peking-founder-seeks-bond-repayment-delay-to-feb-2020-sources-idUSL4N28U2DQ

Many Chinese firms cannot pay their employees now because of their shutdowns.  Even if the government helps them with cheap loans, it doesn't solve the fundamental problem (no customer) and their debts will only pile up.

https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/02/19/chinese-companies-say-they-cant-afford-to-pay-workers-now.html

No monetary policy can help in this situation unless the virus outbreak is contained.  Monetary policies cannot override job insecurities.  When people are suffering from pay cuts and job losses, they will cut back on their spendings.  Nobody will buy a car when he doesn't have job security.  This is a fact of life.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/chinas-passenger-car-sales-tumble-041809740.html

We had stated in our previous post that China's consumption would fall into the abyss and monetary policies would not resolve this.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/02/china-can-stabilize-its-stock-markets.html

The US CDC has put Singapore on its community spread list.

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3878832

The US CDC has put SG on its community spread list.

The list consists of the following countries:
Japan
Singapore
South Korea
Taiwan
Thailand
Vietnam

HK is on Watch Level 1 notice while China is on Warning Level 3 travel notice.

What does the community spread list imply?
This list is implying that these countries must detox their surroundings to curb the community spread.


We had accurately projected Japan's virus outbreak.  Since Japan is the 3rd largest economy, its failure to contain the virus outbreak will affect the global economy.  Furthermore, Japan is the host country for Olympic 2020.  If this major event is cancelled, it will hurt Japanese firms heavily as they have spent billions to prepare and build the infrastructures for the upcoming Olympics.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/02/red-alert-major-covid-19-virus-outbreak_19.html