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Monday, July 20, 2020

Another constellation is aligning and a big financial crisis is brewing this time. - Part 3

Many financial firms such as investment banks had just announced their latest earnings.  However, there is one thing that truly concerns me about their earnings.  Many financial firms had good earnings because of their fixed income trading (a.k.a bond trading).  This bond trading income was just an ad hoc profitability because the FED reduced the interest rate to zero.  Since the bond price moves inversely to its interest yield, the bond price will move up when the FED reduces the interest rate which in turn enables the financial firms to take advantage of the phenomenon which cannot be repeated.  The FED had stated clearly that it won't consider negative rates policy.  Therefore, this bond trading profitability is unsustainable unless the FED adopts a negative interest rate policy.

 http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/05/what-will-us-fed-do-after-rejecting.html

 Financial firms' earnings news:

 https://www.marketscreener.com/BLACKROCK-INC-11862/news/BlackRock-Q2-2020-Earnings-Release-30942082/

 https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/15/goldman-sachs-gs-earnings-q2-2020.html

 https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/16/morgan-stanley-ms-earnings-q2-2020.html
The financial tsunami that I'm projecting is based on the following highlights.


  • Rising US-China tension (trade, economic, financial, sanction, etc)
  • Excessive monetary policies
  • Imploding debts
  • Covid virus
  • Natural disasters (floodings in China & Japan now, and the US typhoon season)
  • Unsustainable financial firms' earnings (bond trading income)

    • The US typhoon season is also a big worry as the typhoons will be much stronger this year.  My observations from the floodings in China, Japan and India now have led me to reach this conclusion.  The US insurance firms will be badly hit when the stronger typhoons hit the US.

     Is the die cast in stone? I leave it to you to decide for yourself.

     http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/07/another-constellation-is-aligning-and_15.html
    Posted by at 1 comment:

    Saturday, July 18, 2020

    Baltic dry index - 1710

    * The Baltic dry index, which tracks rates for ships ferrying dry bulk commodities and reflects rates for capesize, panamax and supramax vessels, rose 11 points, or about 0.6%, to 1,710.

     ====================

     Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.
    Posted by at No comments:

    US rig count - 954


    Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.
    Posted by at No comments:

    Friday, July 17, 2020

    Delfi - Stock calls

    DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
    08/14/19DMG & PartnersDelfi1.241.68BuyDCF, PER28x FY19
    10/31/19DBS VickersDelfi0.9951.49BuyPER23.7x FY20
    11/13/19DMG & PartnersDelfi0.9551.68BuyDCF
    11/14/19DBS VickersDelfi0.961.51BuyPER23.1x FY20
    12/11/19DMG & PartnersDelfi11.68Buy
    01/06/20DBS VickersDelfi11.51Buy
    02/07/20DMG & PartnersDelfi0.961.68BuyDCF
    02/28/20DBS VickersDelfi0.961.55BuyPER23x FY20
    04/27/20DMG & PartnersDelfi0.620.74BuyDCF
    05/22/20DBS VickersDelfi0.831.08BuyPER18x FY20/21
    06/05/20AmfrasersDelfi0.770.93outperform
    07/15/20DMG & PartnersDelfi0.740.74NeutralDCF
    Posted by at No comments:

    DBS Bank - Stock calls

    DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
    07/01/19Kim EngDBS25.9629.46Buy
    07/01/19UOB Kay HianDBS25.9630.5BuyGGM, PB1.59x FY19
    07/02/19OCBCDBS26.629.2BuyGGM, PB1.4x, PER14.7x
    07/03/19phillipDBS26.529Accumulate
    07/08/19DMG & PartnersDBS25.6330.8BuyPB1.5x FY20
    07/12/19DMG & PartnersDBS25.6130.3BuyPB1.47x FY20
    07/29/19Lim & TanDBS26.880Buy
    07/30/19DMG & PartnersDBS26.5428.3HoldGGM, PB1.37x FY20
    07/30/19CIMBDBS26.5427.59HoldGGM
    07/30/19Kim EngDBS26.5428.05HoldDDM
    07/30/19OCBCDBS26.5428Hold
    07/30/19phillipDBS26.5430.9Accumulate
    07/30/19UOB Kay HianDBS26.5431.3Buy
    07/31/19MacquarieDBS26.4925.8NeutralPB
    07/31/19phillipDBS26.4927.6AccumulateGGM, PB1.4x
    08/23/19DMG & PartnersDBS24.5928.3Neutral
    08/29/19MacquarieDBS24.0225.8NeutralPB
    09/05/19phillipDBS24.5427.6Accumulate
    09/06/19DMG & PartnersDBS24.6325.3NeutralGGM, PB1.23x FY20
    09/26/19Kim EngDBS24.7328.05Hold
    09/26/19JefferiesDBS24.7331Buy
    09/27/19CIMBDBS24.8227.59Hold
    10/01/19UOB Kay HianDBS2531.3Buy
    10/04/19phillipDBS24.5727.6Accumulate
    10/29/19UOB Kay HianDBS25.1829.75Buy
    11/05/19phillipDBS26.1327.6Accumulate
    11/11/19DMG & PartnersDBS26.6125.3NeutralGGM, PB1.23x FY20
    11/11/19Lim & TanDBS26.610Buy on weakness
    11/12/19MacquarieDBS26.6425.8NeutralPB
    11/12/19phillipDBS26.6427.3AccumulateGGM, PB1.4x
    11/12/19DMG & PartnersDBS26.6425.8NeutralGGM, PB1.28x FY20
    11/12/19Kim EngDBS26.6429.92BuyDDM
    11/12/19UOB Kay HianDBS26.6430Buy
    12/02/19CIMBDBS25.2528.29Hold
    12/02/19Kim EngDBS25.2529.92Buy
    12/03/19DMG & PartnersDBS25.1325.8Neutral
    12/04/19phillipDBS24.9827.3Accumulate
    01/03/20UOB Kay HianDBS26.1130Buy
    01/08/20CIMBDBS26.0528.29Add
    01/08/20Kim EngDBS26.0529.92Buy
    01/14/20DMG & PartnersDBS26.125.8NeutralGGM, PB1.28x FY20
    02/07/20UOB Kay HianDBS25.728.65Buy
    02/13/20Lim & TanDBS25.420Buy
    02/14/20CIMBDBS25.4227.09AddGGM
    02/14/20UOB Kay HianDBS25.4228BuyGGM, PB1.39x FY20
    02/14/20DMG & PartnersDBS25.4224.8NeutralGGM, PB1.25x FY20
    02/14/20Kim EngDBS25.4228.6Buy
    02/14/20JefferiesDBS25.4228.5Buy
    02/18/20phillipDBS25.4827.3Accumulate
    02/18/20CitibankDBS25.4826.8Hold
    03/04/20CitibankDBS23.6624.4Hold
    03/05/20CIMBDBS23.9124.33Hold
    03/05/20OCBCDBS23.9125.5HoldGGM, PB1.3x
    03/09/20CitibankDBS2317.5Sell
    03/10/20phillipDBS21.1527.3Accumulate
    03/10/20JefferiesDBS21.1527Buy
    03/13/20DMG & PartnersDBS20.221.5NeutralGGM, PB1.09x FY20
    03/19/20MacquarieDBS17.920.25Neutral
    03/19/20JefferiesDBS17.920Buy
    04/01/20JefferiesDBS18.5720Buy
    04/01/20CitibankDBS18.5717.5Sell
    04/08/20Kim EngDBS19.1121.99Buy
    04/13/20phillipDBS19.1427.3Accumulate
    04/17/20UOB Kay HianDBS19.3822.1Buy
    04/24/20MacquarieDBS18.7418.25Neutral
    04/30/20Lim & TanDBS19.20Buy
    05/01/20DMG & PartnersDBS19.218.7NeutralGGM, PB0.96x FY20
    05/04/20phillipDBS19.9620.59AccumulateGGM, PB1.09x
    05/04/20UOB Kay HianDBS19.9622.3Buy
    05/11/20Kim EngDBS19.722.1Buy
    05/11/20CitibankDBS19.719.65Hold
    06/08/20phillipDBS22.2820.6Neutral
    06/08/20CitibankDBS22.2825.5Buy
    06/10/20Lim & TanDBS22.950Hold
    06/11/20MacquarieDBS23.0126outperformPB
    06/18/20DMG & PartnersDBS21.5718.7Neutral
    06/24/20Kim EngDBS21.1322.1Buy
    07/01/20CIMBDBS20.8518.8Hold
    07/03/20phillipDBS21.2820.6Neutral
    07/06/20UOB Kay HianDBS21.5726.22Buy
    07/14/20MacquarieDBS21.5426outperformPB
    Posted by at No comments:

    Dasin Retail - Stock calls

    DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
    07/22/19phillipDasin Retail0.8750.94Accumulate
    08/16/19phillipDasin Retail0.870.94AccumulateDDM, PB0.65x
    09/24/19phillipDasin Retail0.8450.94Accumulate
    10/18/19phillipDasin Retail0.8450.94Accumulate
    11/25/19phillipDasin Retail0.840.94Accumulate
    11/27/19phillipDasin Retail0.840.88AccumulateDDM, PB0.62x FY19
    03/10/20phillipDasin Retail0.8050.88AccumulateDDM
    05/27/20phillipDasin Retail0.830.91AccumulateDDM
    Posted by at No comments:

    Stock calls for 17 July 2020

    DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
    07/17/20DMG & PartnersCSE Global0.460.54BuyPER12x FY20
    07/17/20CIMBESR-Reit0.390.492AddDDM
    07/17/20Lim & TanESR-Reit0.390Accept Offer
    07/17/20CLSAESR-Reit0.390.47Buy
    07/17/20SoochowESR-Reit0.390.47Buy
    07/17/20MorningstarESR-Reit0.390.42Stable
    07/17/20DaiwaESR-Reit0.390.42Hold
    07/17/20UOB Kay HianFrasers Hospitality Trust0.470.58BuyDDM
    07/17/20DBS VickersSabana0.360.4BuyPB0.94x ESR-Reit
    07/17/20AmfrasersYanlord1.341.45OutperformRNAV
    Posted by at No comments:

    Singapore Nodx surged 16.1% in June 2020

    https://sg.news.yahoo.com/singapore-exports-surge-16-1-003510797.html
    Year on year changes (YOY):
    June 2020: 16.1%
    May 2020: -4.6%
    April 2020: 9.7%
    March 2020: 17.6%
    February 2020: 3% (Revised to 3.1%)
    January 2020: - 3.3%
    December 2019: 2.4%
    November 2019: - 5.9%
    October 2019: - 12.3%
    September 2019: -8.1%
    August 2019: - 8.9%
    July 2019: -11.2%
    June 2019: -17.3%
    May 2019: -15.9%
    April 2019: -10%
    March 2019: -11.7%
    February 2019: 4.9%
    January 2019: -10.1%
    December 2018: -8.5%
    November 2018: -2.6%
    October 2018: 8.3%
    September 2018: 8.3%
    August 2018: 5%
    July 2018: 11.8% (Corrected)
    June 2018: 1.1%
    May 2018: 15.5%
    April 2018: 11.8%
    March 2018: -2.7%
    February 2018: -5.9%
    January 2018: 13%
    December 2017: 3.1%
    November 2017: 9.1%
    October 2017: 20.9%
    September 2017: -1.1%
    August 2017: 16.7%
    July 2017: 8.5%
    June 2017: 8.2%
    May 2017: -1.2%
    Apr 2017: -0.7%
    Mar 2017: 16.5%
    Feb 2017: 21.1%
    Jan 2017: 8.6%
    Posted by at No comments:

    The US debt market is going to implode! - Part 3

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/father-z-score-predicts-surge-110210239.html

    The NY professor has corroborated our May warning about the debt implosion in the US.  The debt implosion will cause a big financial explosion.  This is the financial tsunami we've just warned about recently.

    http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/07/another-constellation-is-aligning-and_15.html

    http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/05/the-us-debt-market-is-going-to-implode.html

    Like I said many times before, when we tell you something, you better sit up and listen.
    Posted by at 1 comment:

    Thursday, July 16, 2020

    Dairy Farm - Stock calls

    DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
    07/02/19DMG & PartnersDairy Farm7.298.25Neutral
    08/02/19DBS VickersDairy Farm7.387.99HoldSum of parts
    08/05/19DMG & PartnersDairy Farm7.67.38NeutralDCF
    08/13/19CIMBDairy Farm6.987.29HoldPER23x CY20
    09/23/19DMG & PartnersDairy Farm6.656.63NeutralDCF
    11/29/19CIMBDairy Farm5.935.4ReducePER22x CY20
    12/11/19DMG & PartnersDairy Farm5.96.63Neutral
    03/06/20DMG & PartnersDairy Farm4.755.05HoldDCF
    03/06/20DBS VickersDairy Farm4.755.2BuySum of parts
    03/06/20CIMBDairy Farm4.754.38ReducePER17x FY20
    03/25/20DBS VickersDairy Farm3.964.7BuySum of parts
    03/27/20HSBCDairy Farm4.315.05Hold
    04/06/20DBS VickersDairy Farm4.314.7Buy
    04/09/20DMG & PartnersDairy Farm4.894.95NeutralDCF
    04/15/20DBS VickersDairy Farm4.835.59Buy
    04/29/20DBS VickersDairy Farm4.755.1BuySum of parts
    05/28/20MacquarieDairy Farm4.265.8Outperform
    06/08/20DMG & PartnersDairy Farm4.754.95Neutral
    06/10/20CIMBDairy Farm55.45HoldPER20x CY21
    07/03/20DBS VickersDairy Farm4.665.1Buy
    Posted by at No comments:

    CSE Global - Stock calls

    DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
    08/15/19Lim & TanCSE Global0.4350Buy
    08/16/19DMG & PartnersCSE Global0.440.61BuyDCF
    08/16/19UOB Kay HianCSE Global0.440.62Buy
    08/29/19CIMBCSE Global0.4250.6AddPER13.5x FY20
    09/03/19Lim & TanCSE Global0.440Buy
    09/04/19UOB Kay HianCSE Global0.4550.65BuyPER15x FY19
    09/04/19DMG & PartnersCSE Global0.4550.69BuyDCF, PER11.9x FY20
    09/06/19DBS VickersCSE Global0.470.65BuyPER12x FY20
    09/09/19CIMBCSE Global0.4650.68Add
    09/10/19AmfrasersCSE Global0.460.64OutperformSum of parts, PER12x, PB2x
    10/02/19DMG & PartnersCSE Global0.460.69Buy
    10/11/19UOB Kay HianCSE Global0.4650.65Buy
    10/31/19CIMBCSE Global0.5250.68Buy
    11/01/19DMG & PartnersCSE Global0.5250.69BuyDCF
    11/07/19Lim & TanCSE Global0.540Buy
    11/08/19UOB Kay HianCSE Global0.530.7Buy
    11/08/19AmfrasersCSE Global0.530.61OutperformSum of parts
    11/08/19DBS VickersCSE Global0.530.69BuyPER12x FY20
    11/25/19CIMBCSE Global0.540.73Add
    12/02/19AmfrasersCSE Global0.5250.61OutperformSum of parts
    12/09/19Lim & TanCSE Global0.5250Buy
    12/10/19DMG & PartnersCSE Global0.5350.69buy
    12/27/19CIMBCSE Global0.5450.73Add
    01/08/20UOB Kay HianCSE Global0.560.7Buy
    01/08/20DMG & PartnersCSE Global0.560.69Buy
    02/05/20Lim & TanCSE Global0.510.68Buy
    02/11/20DMG & PartnersCSE Global0.530.69BuyDCF
    02/28/20DMG & PartnersCSE Global0.5450.73BuyDCF
    02/28/20UOB Kay HianCSE Global0.5450.72Buy
    02/28/20CIMBCSE Global0.5450.77AddPER13.5x FY21
    03/02/20DBS VickersCSE Global0.520.7BuyPER12x FY20
    03/12/20DBS VickersCSE Global0.4650.65BuyPER12x FY20
    03/26/20CIMBCSE Global0.350.45Add
    03/30/20DMG & PartnersCSE Global0.360.73Buy
    04/07/20DMG & PartnersCSE Global0.350.73Buy
    04/08/20DMG & PartnersCSE Global0.380.54BuyPER12x FY20
    05/06/20DBS VickersCSE Global0.3950.54BuyPER10.6x
    06/03/20UOB Kay HianCSE Global0.4750.65BuyPER12.1x FY21
    06/04/20DMG & PartnersCSE Global0.490.54BuyPER12x FY20
    06/04/20Lim & TanCSE Global0.490Buy
    06/04/20CIMBCSE Global0.490.55Add
    Posted by at No comments:

    Cromwell Reit (EUR) - Stock calls

    DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
    04/09/20DBS VickersCromwell Reit (EUR)0.360.59Buy
    Posted by at No comments:

    Stock calls for 16 July 2020

    DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
    07/16/20Kim EngA-Reit3.343.35Buy
    07/16/20Kim EngMapletree Commercial1.942.15Buy
    07/16/20DMG & PartnersSembcorp Marine0.4550.55BuyPB0.82x
    07/16/20UOB Kay HianSembcorp Marine0.4550.49HoldBuy @ $0.40
    07/16/20Lim & TanSembcorp Marine0.4550Avoid
    07/16/20Lim & TanSIA3.770Sell
    07/16/20DBS VickersSPH1.251.26HoldSum of parts
    Posted by at No comments:
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