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Wednesday, July 22, 2020

Food Empire - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
08/13/19DMG & PartnersFood Empire0.5250.73BuyPER13x FY19
11/12/19DMG & PartnersFood Empire0.540.73Buy
11/21/19DMG & PartnersFood Empire0.60.83BuyPER12x FY20
12/11/19DMG & PartnersFood Empire0.60.73Buy
01/17/20DMG & PartnersFood Empire0.7050.83BuyPER12x FY20
02/05/20UOB Kay HianFood Empire0.660.89Buy
02/26/20DMG & PartnersFood Empire0.7350.88BuyPER12x FY20
02/26/20UOB Kay HianFood Empire0.7350.92BuyPER12.6x FY20
05/14/20DMG & PartnersFood Empire0.5050.75BuyPER12x FY20
05/15/20UOB Kay HianFood Empire0.490.63BuyPER12.6x FY20
05/27/20Lim & TanFood Empire0.5150.63AccumlatePER12.3x FY20
06/09/20DMG & PartnersFood Empire0.550.75BuyPER12x FY20

First Sponsor - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
07/26/19DBS VickersFirst Sponsor1.311.62BuyRNAV (35% discount)

First Resources - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
07/02/19Kim EngFirst Resources1.61.93Buy
07/16/19DBS VickersFirst Resources1.551.82BuyDCF
08/06/19UOB Kay HianFirst Resources1.531.6HoldBuy @ $1.45
08/15/19Kim EngFirst Resources1.571.8BuyPER17x FY20
08/15/19DMG & PartnersFirst Resources1.571.45NeutralPER14x FY20
08/15/19CIMBFirst Resources1.571.76Add
08/21/19UOB Kay HianFirst Resources1.51.6HoldBuy @ $1.45
08/21/19DBS VickersFirst Resources1.51.8BuyDCF
09/30/19DMG & PartnersFirst Resources1.61.9BuyPER18x FY20
11/07/19UOB Kay HianFirst Resources1.731.9BuyPER15x FY20
11/12/19DMG & PartnersFirst Resources1.731.95BuyPER18x FY20
11/13/19Kim EngFirst Resources1.781.86HoldPER18x FY20
11/13/19UOB Kay HianFirst Resources1.781.85Buy
11/13/19DBS VickersFirst Resources1.781.95BuyDCF
12/10/19DBS VickersFirst Resources1.832.1BuyDCF
01/20/20DMG & PartnersFirst Resources1.772.3BuyPER18x FY20
02/06/20UOB Kay HianFirst Resources1.782.1Buy
02/26/20DMG & PartnersFirst Resources1.662BuyPER17x FY20
02/28/20DBS VickersFirst Resources1.631.99BuyDCF
02/28/20Kim EngFirst Resources1.631.85BuyPER18x FY20
03/24/20DMG & PartnersFirst Resources1.041.2BuySum of parts, PER12x FY20
04/13/20DBS VickersFirst Resources1.271.99Buy
05/26/20CIMBFirst Resources1.281.8Buy
05/26/20Kim EngFirst Resources1.281.85BuyPER18x FY20
05/26/20DMG & PartnersFirst Resources1.281.25NeutralPER14x FY20
05/26/20UOB Kay HianFirst Resources1.281.65Buy
05/26/20DBS VickersFirst Resources1.281.7BuyDCF
06/26/20DMG & PartnersFirst Resources1.331.35NeutralPER14x FY21

Stock calls for 22 July 20

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
07/22/20DMG & PartnersJapan Foods0.3250.33NeutralSum of parts
07/22/20PhillipKeppel DC Reit2.752.57NeutralDDM, Up from $2.31
07/22/20DBS VickersKeppel DC Reit2.752.8HoldDCF
07/22/20CIMBKeppel DC Reit2.752.88HoldDDM
07/22/20Lim & TanKeppel DC Reit2.750Hold
07/22/20OCBCKeppel DC Reit2.752.86Hold
07/22/20Lim & TanMapletree Industrial2.970Hold
07/22/20OCBCMapletree Industrial2.973.25Buy
07/22/20UOB Kay HianMapletree Logistics2.052.08HoldBuy @ $1.88
07/22/20DBS VickersMapletree Logistics2.052.2Buy
07/22/20Kim EngMapletree Logistics2.052.55Buy
07/22/20CIMBMapletree Logistics2.051.89Hold
07/22/20DBS VickersOCBC9.219.3HoldGGM, PB0.8x FY21
07/22/20UOB Kay HianRex0.1880.3BuySum of parts
07/22/20Kim EngTop Glove8.249.32BuyRinggit target $28.60, PER16x
07/22/20AmfrasersUMS0.9750.89NeutralPER12x
07/22/20DBS VickersUOB20.720.9HoldGGM, PB0.8x FY21

Another constellation is aligning and a big financial crisis is brewing this time. - Part 5

https://www.oliverwyman.com/media-center/2020/jul/european-banks-facing-over-400-billion-euro-in-credit-losses-in-the-next-three-years.html

This is just the beginning.  The US banks also face the same imploding debts situation.

Let's recap again.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/07/another-constellation-is-aligning-and_20.html

The financial tsunami that I'm projecting is based on the following highlights.

  • Rising US-China tension (trade, economic, financial, sanction, etc)
  • Excessive monetary policies
  • Imploding debts
  • Covid virus
  • Natural disasters (floodings in China & Japan now, and the US typhoon season)
  • Unsustainable financial firms' earnings (bond trading income)
  • EU approves EUR$1.85T pandemic recovery fund.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/21/eu-leaders-reach-a-breakthrough-on-the-regions-recovery-fund.html

    With this latest EUR$1.85T pandemic recovery fund and TLTRO III at an interest rate of as low as -1%, the EU is printing a massive amount of free monies to reboot its economy and creating the biggest stock market bubble.  Likewise, the US is also doing exactly the same thing.

    The excessive monetary policies in the world are seeding a big financial crisis now.


    Another constellation is aligning and a big financial crisis is brewing this time. - Part 4

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/21/suze-orman-a-perfect-storm-is-brewing-and-it-is-worse-than-2008.html?&qsearchterm=financial%20storm%20is%20brewing

    A US parody of our prediction below! Hahaha!

    http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/07/another-constellation-is-aligning-and_20.html

    We did our first posting on 15 July about the impending financial tsunami.

    http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/07/another-constellation-is-aligning-and.html

    Tuesday, July 21, 2020

    A warmer climate will energize a typhoon.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/02/weather/july-4th-weather-forecast/index.html

    Do you know where a typhoon draws its energy from? It is the heat that energizes a storm/typhoon.

    The US is in a typhoon season now and its temperature is rising.

    I suspect the hurricane and typhoon season will be much stronger than the past for this year.  We've seen severe floodings in China, Japan and India now and this will also be reflected in the US because of global warming.

    First Reit - Stock calls

    DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
    08/13/19CIMBFirst Reit1.061.23Add
    11/07/19CIMBFirst Reit1.051.2AddDDM
    01/30/20Lim & TanFirst Reit0.9950Buy on weakness
    01/31/20CIMBFirst Reit1.021.15AddDDM

    Far East Hospitality - Stock calls

    DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
    07/22/19UOB Kay HianFar East Hospitality0.6850.82BuyDDM
    07/31/19OCBCFar East Hospitality0.6850.67Hold
    07/31/19CIMBFar East Hospitality0.6850.68Hold
    08/01/19DBS VickersFar East Hospitality0.680.7HoldDCF
    08/27/19UOB Kay HianFar East Hospitality0.650.82Buy
    09/19/19Kim EngFar East Hospitality0.6750.8Buy
    10/09/19DBS VickersFar East Hospitality0.690.7Hold
    10/30/19Lim & TanFar East Hospitality0.70Hold
    10/31/19UOB Kay HianFar East Hospitality0.710.86BuyDCF
    10/31/19DBS VickersFar East Hospitality0.710.8Buy
    11/01/19Kim EngFar East Hospitality0.730.8BuyDDM
    11/04/19CIMBFar East Hospitality0.7350.7Hold
    11/04/19OCBCFar East Hospitality0.7350.68Hold
    11/21/19Kim EngFar East Hospitality0.720.8Buy
    12/19/19DBS VickersFar East Hospitality0.720.8Buy
    01/14/20DBS VickersFar East Hospitality0.7550.8Buy
    02/03/20DBS VickersFar East Hospitality0.680.69HoldPB0.85x
    02/13/20CIMBFar East Hospitality0.670.64HoldDDM
    02/17/20OCBCFar East Hospitality0.660.65Sell
    02/17/20UOB Kay HianFar East Hospitality0.660.65HoldBuy @ $0.60
    02/17/20Kim EngFar East Hospitality0.660.7HoldDDM
    02/17/20CIMBFar East Hospitality0.660.65HoldDDM
    02/19/20OCBCFar East Hospitality0.670.65Hold
    03/16/20OCBCFar East Hospitality0.530.52Hold
    03/20/20UOB Kay HianFar East Hospitality0.3750.5BuyDDM
    04/21/20DBS VickersFar East Hospitality0.490.6Buy
    05/05/20UOB Kay HianFar East Hospitality0.490.62BuyDDM
    06/01/20DBS VickersFar East Hospitality0.4950.6Buy
    06/08/20UOB Kay HianFar East Hospitality0.5450.62Buy
    06/09/20CIMBFar East Hospitality0.570.59Add
    07/02/20UOB Kay HianFar East Hospitality0.50.62Buy
    07/21/20CIMBFar East Hospitality0.490.592Add

    ESR-Reit - Stock calls

    DateAnalystCodeCompanyLastTargetCallPercentValuation
    07/24/19OCBCJ91UESR-Reit0.5350.58Buy8.41
    07/24/19CIMBJ91UESR-Reit0.5350.61Add14.02DDM
    08/21/19CitibankJ91UESR-Reit0.510.57Buy11.76
    10/25/19OCBCJ91UESR-Reit0.540.58Buy7.41
    10/29/19DMG & PartnersJ91UESR-Reit0.530.6Buy13.21DDM
    12/10/19DMG & PartnersJ91UESR-Reit0.5450.6Buy10.09
    01/07/20DMG & PartnersJ91UESR-Reit0.5450.6Buy10.09DDM
    01/24/20DBS VickersJ91UESR-Reit0.560.59Buy5.36DCF
    01/28/20OCBCJ91UESR-Reit0.560.6Buy7.14
    01/30/20DBS VickersJ91UESR-Reit0.5550.48Hold-13.51DCF
    02/25/20OCBCJ91UESR-Reit0.5450.6Buy10.09
    03/02/20DBS VickersJ91UESR-Reit0.530.59Buy11.32DCF
    03/19/20DMG & PartnersJ91UESR-Reit0.3050.5Buy63.93DDM
    04/07/20DMG & PartnersJ91UESR-Reit0.2450.5Buy104.08
    04/24/20DBS VickersJ91UESR-Reit0.3350.43Buy28.36DCF
    07/17/20CIMBJ91UESR-Reit0.390.492Add26.15DDM
    07/17/20Lim & TanJ91UESR-Reit0.390Accept Offer-100.00
    07/17/20CLSAJ91UESR-Reit0.390.47Buy20.51
    07/17/20SoochowJ91UESR-Reit0.390.47Buy20.51
    07/17/20MorningstarJ91UESR-Reit0.390.42Stable7.69
    07/17/20DaiwaJ91UESR-Reit0.390.42Hold7.69

    Stock calls for 21 July 2020

    DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
    07/21/20CIMBART0.9551.06Add
    07/21/20CIMBCDL Hospitality0.991.2Add
    07/21/20JefferiesDBS21.2924.5Buy
    07/21/20Kim EngDBS21.2922.1Buy
    07/21/20CIMBFar East Hospitality0.490.592Add
    07/21/20DMG & PartnersKeppel Reit1.091.1NeutralDDM
    07/21/20Lim & TanKeppel Reit1.090Buy
    07/21/20CIMBKeppel Reit1.091.2Add
    07/21/20UOB Kay HianManulife US Reit0.70.85BuyDDM
    07/21/20OCBCMapletree Logistics2.042.07Hold
    07/21/20Lim & TanMapletree Logistics2.040Hold
    07/21/20JefferiesOCBC9.188.88Hold
    07/21/20Kim EngOCBC9.189.15Hold
    07/21/20OCBCSIA Engineering1.971.8Sell
    07/21/20UOB Kay HianTop Glove8.157.14BuyRinggit target $21.90
    07/21/20JefferiesUOB20.5522Buy
    07/21/20Kim EngUOB20.5522.42Buy

    Monday, July 20, 2020

    Elite ComReit - Stock calls

    DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
    05/26/20UOB Kay HianElite ComReit0.660.88BuyDDM
    06/30/20CIMBElite ComReit0.71.3Add

    EC World Reit - Stock calls

    DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
    07/04/19DMG & PartnersEC World Reit0.780.85Buy
    07/22/19phillipEC World Reit0.7550.87Buy
    08/08/19phillipEC World Reit0.7350.87BuyDDM
    08/08/19DMG & PartnersEC World Reit0.7350.82BuyDDM
    09/24/19phillipEC World Reit0.7350.87Buy
    10/18/19phillipEC World Reit0.7350.87Buy
    11/12/19phillipEC World Reit0.740.84BuyDDM
    11/12/19DBS VickersEC World Reit0.740.86BuyDCF
    11/26/19AmfrasersEC World Reit0.740.84outperformDDM
    12/02/19AmfrasersEC World Reit0.7450.84outperformDDM
    12/10/19DMG & PartnersEC World Reit0.7650.82Buy
    03/02/20DMG & PartnersEC World Reit0.7050.78BuyDDM
    03/02/20DBS VickersEC World Reit0.7050.8BuyDCF
    03/02/20AmfrasersEC World Reit0.7050.82outperform
    03/05/20phillipEC World Reit0.720.827BuyDDM
    04/23/20DMG & PartnersEC World Reit0.630.78Buy
    05/14/20DMG & PartnersEC World Reit0.6750.76BuyDDM
    05/14/20DBS VickersEC World Reit0.6750.8BuyDCF
    05/15/20phillipEC World Reit0.660.77BuyDDM
    05/18/20AmfrasersEC World Reit0.6750.73outperformDDM
    06/23/20DMG & PartnersEC World Reit0.70.76Buy
    07/13/20AmfrasersEC World Reit0.6550.73outperformDDM

    Eagle Hospitality Trust - Stock calls

    DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
    08/30/19JefferiesEagle Hospitality Trust0.6751Buy
    08/30/19UOB Kay HianEagle Hospitality Trust0.6751.02BuyDDM
    08/30/19UBSEagle Hospitality Trust0.6750.83Buy
    10/02/19AmfrasersEagle Hospitality Trust0.680.84outperformDDM
    10/25/19UOB Kay HianEagle Hospitality Trust0.6451.02BuyDDM
    10/29/19AmfrasersEagle Hospitality Trust0.5450.72outperformDDM
    11/18/19AmfrasersEagle Hospitality Trust0.5350.61BuyDDM
    11/18/19JefferiesEagle Hospitality Trust0.5350.8Buy
    12/02/19AmfrasersEagle Hospitality Trust0.5250.61outperformDDM
    02/20/20AmfrasersEagle Hospitality Trust0.530.51Neutral
    02/20/20JefferiesEagle Hospitality Trust0.530.7Buy
    02/20/20UBSEagle Hospitality Trust0.530.75Buy
    03/10/20AmfrasersEagle Hospitality Trust0.280.51Neutral
    03/25/20UBSEagle Hospitality Trust0.1370.75Buy

    Stock calls for 20 July 2020

    DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
    07/20/20Lim & TanCDL Hospitality1.020Sell
    07/20/20UOB Kay HianDBS21.3824.8Buy
    07/20/20PhillipHyphens Pharma0.420.435AccumlateDCF
    07/20/20PhillipManulife US Reit0.7050.8BuyDDM
    07/20/20phillipPrime US Reit0.7650.88BuyDDM
    07/20/20UOB Kay HianSembcorp Industries1.782.2BuySum of parts
    07/20/20Lim & TanSembcorp Industries1.780Accumlate
    07/20/20CIMBSembcorp Industries1.782.27Add
    07/20/20CIMBSIA Engineering1.961.78Hold
    07/20/20DBS VickersSIA Engineering1.962.1HoldSum of parts (15% premium)

    The southern hemisphere must brace for a possible major covid outbreak from June to August 2020. Why? - Part 5

    http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/07/the-southern-hemisphere-must-brace-for.html

    Omg! South Africa has leaped to no.5 from no.13 in just 10 days!


    When we give a warning, you better watch out because we're seldom wrong!

    We are different from SUTD because we can analyze better.

    Another constellation is aligning and a big financial crisis is brewing this time. - Part 3

    Many financial firms such as investment banks had just announced their latest earnings.  However, there is one thing that truly concerns me about their earnings.  Many financial firms had good earnings because of their fixed income trading (a.k.a bond trading).  This bond trading income was just an ad hoc profitability because the FED reduced the interest rate to zero.  Since the bond price moves inversely to its interest yield, the bond price will move up when the FED reduces the interest rate which in turn enables the financial firms to take advantage of the phenomenon which cannot be repeated.  The FED had stated clearly that it won't consider negative rates policy.  Therefore, this bond trading profitability is unsustainable unless the FED adopts a negative interest rate policy.

    http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/05/what-will-us-fed-do-after-rejecting.html

    Financial firms' earnings news:

    https://www.marketscreener.com/BLACKROCK-INC-11862/news/BlackRock-Q2-2020-Earnings-Release-30942082/

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/15/goldman-sachs-gs-earnings-q2-2020.html

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/16/morgan-stanley-ms-earnings-q2-2020.html


    The financial tsunami that I'm projecting is based on the following highlights.


  • Rising US-China tension (trade, economic, financial, sanction, etc)
  • Excessive monetary policies
  • Imploding debts
  • Covid virus
  • Natural disasters (floodings in China & Japan now, and the US typhoon season)
  • Unsustainable financial firms' earnings (bond trading income)

  • The US typhoon season is also a big worry as the typhoons will be much stronger this year.  My observations from the floodings in China, Japan and India now have led me to reach this conclusion.  The US insurance firms will be badly hit when the stronger typhoons hit the US.

    Is the die cast in stone? I leave it to you to decide for yourself.


    http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/07/another-constellation-is-aligning-and_15.html