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Tuesday, August 25, 2020

Stock calls for 25 August 2020

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
08/25/20UOB Kay HianBumitama0.5150.52Hold
08/25/20DMG & PartnersCDL Hospitality11.25BuyDDM
08/25/20DBS VickersChina Aviation Oil0.8651.2BuyPER11x FY20/21
08/25/20phillipCity Developments810.68BuyRNAV (30% discount)
08/25/20UOB Kay HianGolden Agri0.1450.14Hold
08/25/20Lim & TanGuocoland1.40Accumulate
08/25/20Lim & TanKoufu0.6750Accumulate
08/25/20CIMBSATS3.083HoldPB2.1x FY21
08/25/20phillipSATS3.081.95SellPB1.35x
08/25/20UOB Kay HianSATS3.082.67Sell
08/25/20Lim & TanSATS3.080Avoid

Monday, August 24, 2020

Olam - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
11/26/19Lim & TanOlam1.820Hold

OCBC Bank - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
07/01/19UOB Kay HianOCBC11.414.62Buy
07/02/19Kim EngOCBC11.5911.07Hold
07/03/19phillipOCBC11.5412.7Accumulate
07/08/19DMG & PartnersOCBC11.3912.2NeutralGGM, PB1.12x FY20
07/23/19DBS VickersOCBC11.6411.5Hold
08/02/19Lim & TanOCBC11.420Buy on weakness
08/02/19CitibankOCBC11.4212.3Hold
08/05/19phillipOCBC11.2112.5AccumulateGGM, PB1.3x
08/05/19DMG & PartnersOCBC11.2111.8NeutralGGM, PB1.1x FY20
08/05/19UOB Kay HianOCBC11.2114.48BuyGGM, PB1.4x FY19
08/05/19DBS VickersOCBC11.2111.5HoldGGM, PB1.1x FY20
08/06/19CIMBOCBC11.0812.59HoldGGM, PB1.3x
08/06/19Kim EngOCBC11.0811.05HoldDDM
08/20/19DMG & PartnersOCBC10.7111.5NeutralGGM, PB1.07x FY20
08/21/19CIMBOCBC10.6912.53Hold
09/02/19phillipOCBC10.6512.32AccumulateGGM
09/05/19UOB Kay HianOCBC10.7114.48BuyGGM, PB1.4x FY19
09/26/19Kim EngOCBC10.7711.05Neutral
09/26/19DMG & PartnersOCBC10.7711.5NeutralGGM, PB1.07x FY20
09/27/19CIMBOCBC10.8212.53Hold
10/04/19phillipOCBC10.7112.32Accumulate
10/17/19UOB Kay HianOCBC10.8614.45BuyGGM, PB1.4x FY19
10/23/19DBS VickersOCBC10.7111.5Hold
11/05/19phillipOCBC11.0712.32Accumulate
11/05/19DMG & PartnersOCBC11.0711.5NeutralGGM, PB1.08x FY20
11/05/19Lim & TanOCBC11.070Buy
11/05/19CitibankOCBC11.0711Hold
11/05/19JefferiesOCBC11.0711.5Hold
11/06/19MacquarieOCBC11.0812.4OutperformPB
11/06/19Kim EngOCBC11.0811.26HoldDDM
11/06/19UOB Kay HianOCBC11.0814.45BuyGGM, PB1.4x FY19
11/06/19DBS VickersOCBC11.0811.5HoldGGM, PB1.1x FY20
11/07/19phillipOCBC11.111.7AccumulateGGM, PB1.1x
12/02/19CIMBOCBC10.7811.94Hold
12/02/19Kim EngOCBC10.7811.26Hold
12/03/19DMG & PartnersOCBC10.7511.5Neutral
12/03/19DBS VickersOCBC10.7511.5Hold
12/04/19phillipOCBC10.6811.7Accumulate
01/03/20UOB Kay HianOCBC11.0314.45Buy
01/08/20CIMBOCBC1111.94Hold
02/03/20DBS VickersOCBC10.8311.5HoldGGM, PB1x FY20
02/10/20UOB Kay HianOCBC10.8612.8Buy
02/19/20MacquarieOCBC10.9712.4Outperform
02/24/20phillipOCBC11.0212.1AccumulateGGM, PB1.11x FY20
02/24/20DMG & PartnersOCBC11.0211.2NeutralGGM, PB1.03x FY20
02/24/20UOB Kay HianOCBC11.0212.68Buy
02/24/20CitibankOCBC11.0211.6Hold
02/24/20JefferiesOCBC11.0211Hold
02/25/20Kim EngOCBC10.9211.57Hold
03/02/20DBS VickersOCBC10.611.5Hold
03/04/20CitibankOCBC10.6511Hold
03/05/20MacquarieOCBC10.5512.4Outperform
03/05/20DBS VickersOCBC10.5511HoldGGM, PB1x FY20
03/05/20CIMBOCBC10.5511.05Hold
03/09/20CitibankOCBC10.218.85Sell
03/10/20phillipOCBC9.5212.1Accumulate
03/11/20JefferiesOCBC9.7211Buy
03/17/20DMG & PartnersOCBC8.79.6BuyGGM, PB0.89x FY20
03/17/20DBS VickersOCBC8.78.6HoldGGM, PB0.8x FY20
03/17/20JefferiesOCBC8.710Buy
03/19/20MacquarieOCBC8.4910.5Outperform
03/20/20CIMBOCBC8.089.04Add
03/31/20DMG & PartnersOCBC8.529.6Neutral
04/01/20DBS VickersOCBC8.548.6Hold
04/01/20JefferiesOCBC8.5410Buy
04/01/20CitibankOCBC8.548.85Sell
04/08/20Kim EngOCBC8.9310.32BuyDDM
04/13/20phillipOCBC8.9512.1Accumulate
04/22/20UOB Kay HianOCBC8.79.78Buy
04/22/20DMG & PartnersOCBC8.79NeutralGGM, PB0.84x FY20
04/23/20DBS VickersOCBC8.627.9HoldGGM, PB0.7x FY21
04/24/20MacquarieOCBC8.6510Outperform
05/11/20phillipOCBC8.889.14AccumulateGGM, PB0.85x
05/11/20Citi ResearchOCBC8.887.75Sell
05/11/20DMG & PartnersOCBC8.888.7HoldGGM, PB0.81x FY20
05/11/20Kim EngOCBC8.889.46HoldDDM
05/11/20DBS VickersOCBC8.887.9HoldGGM, PB0.7x FY21
05/11/20Lim & TanOCBC8.880Accumulate
05/11/20CIMBOCBC8.888.37Hold
05/11/20UOB Kay HianOCBC8.889.78BuyPB0.8x FY20
05/13/20MacquarieOCBC8.899.67OutperformPB
05/13/20JefferiesOCBC8.898.4Hold
06/01/20DBS VickersOCBC8.557.9HoldGGM, PB0.7x FY21
06/05/20UOB Kay HianOCBC9.312.18Buy
06/08/20phillipOCBC9.449.14Neutral
06/08/20Citi ResearchOCBC9.4410.85Buy
06/11/20MacquarieOCBC9.7311.2Outperform
06/18/20DMG & PartnersOCBC9.168.7Neutral
07/01/20CIMBOCBC98.37Hold
07/03/20phillipOCBC9.189.14Neutral
07/06/20UOB Kay HianOCBC9.212.18Buy
07/07/20MacquarieOCBC9.3311.2OutperformPB
07/08/20UOB Kay HianOCBC9.2411.58Buy
07/21/20JefferiesOCBC9.188.88Hold
07/21/20Kim EngOCBC9.189.15Hold
07/22/20DBS VickersOCBC9.219.3HoldGGM, PB0.8x FY21
07/30/20MacquarieOCBC8.911OutperformPB
07/30/20UOB Kay HianOCBC8.911.22Buy
08/04/20MacquarieOCBC8.5210.65OutperformPB
08/07/20DBS VickersOCBC8.89.3HoldGGM, PB0.8x FY21
08/07/20Lim & TanOCBC8.80Buy on weakness
08/07/20CIMBOCBC8.88.37Hold
08/11/20DMG & PartnersOCBC8.728.7NeutralGGM, PB0.81x FY20
08/11/20Kim EngOCBC8.729.06Hold
08/11/20CIMBOCBC8.729.19Hold
08/11/20UOB Kay HianOCBC8.7210.82Buy
08/12/20MacquarieOCBC8.768.85Neutral
08/13/20phillipOCBC8.868.92AccumulateGGM, PB0.84x

Netlink - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
07/15/19PhillipNetlink0.880.93AccumulateDCF
07/17/19Kim EngNetlink0.8850.94Buy
08/06/19UOB Kay HianNetlink0.880.92BuyDCF
08/06/19PhillipNetlink0.880.93AccumulateDCF
08/07/19Kim EngNetlink0.8650.94BuyDDM
08/07/19DBS VickersNetlink0.8650.95BuyDCF
10/07/19UOB Kay HianNetlink0.91.01BuyDCF
10/11/19PhillipNetlink0.910.93Accumulate
10/17/19Kim EngNetlink0.91.03BuyDDM
10/18/19DBS VickersNetlink0.910.95Buy
11/04/19UOB Kay HianNetlink0.9351.01BuyDCF
11/04/19PhillipNetlink0.9350.99AccumulateDCF
11/05/19OCBCNetlink0.9551.03Buy
11/05/19DBS VickersNetlink0.9551.04BuyDCF
11/05/19Kim EngNetlink0.9551.06Buy
01/03/20DBS VickersNetlink0.941.04BuyDCF
01/30/20UOB Kay HianNetlink11.05BuyDCF
02/10/20DBS VickersNetlink1.011.04BuyDCF
02/11/20UOB Kay HianNetlink11.05BuyDCF
02/12/20DBS VickersNetlink11.05BuyDCF
02/14/20PhillipNetlink1.010.99NeutralDCF
03/02/20DBS VickersNetlink0.981.05Buy
03/23/20DBS VickersNetlink0.90.95BuyDCF
05/08/20DBS VickersNetlink11.02HoldDCF
05/11/20phillipNetlink0.9851.03AccumulateDCF
05/11/20UOB Kay HianNetlink0.9851.08Buy
06/26/20Morgan StanleyNetlink0.9751Overweight
07/13/20OCBCNetlink0.981.1Buy
07/28/20Kim EngNetlink0.9651.08BuyDDM
08/07/20DBS VickersNetlink0.971.02HoldDCF
08/07/20Kim EngNetlink0.971.07BuyDDM
08/07/20OCBCNetlink0.971.1Buy
08/11/20phillipNetlink0.9651.03AccumulateDCF
08/11/20UOB Kay HianNetlink0.9651.08BuyDCF
08/13/20CIMBNetlink0.9651.1Add

Stock calls for 24 August 2020

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
08/24/20OCBCCapitamall Trust1.852.29Buy
08/24/20phillipDasin Retail0.8150.91AccumulateDDM
08/24/20OCBCESR-Reit0.3850.45Buy
08/24/20OCBCFrasers Logistics1.381.59Buy
08/24/20Lim & TanFrencken0.961.26Accumulate
08/24/20Lim & TanGenting0.6950Sell
08/24/20AmfrasersJiutian0.0460.068Outperform
08/24/20OCBCManulife US Reit0.7450.84Buy
08/24/20OCBCMapletree North Asia0.9051.09Buy
08/24/20UOB Kay HianSPH1.081.22HoldSum of parts
08/24/20AmfrasersYanlord1.251.52Outperform

Sunday, August 23, 2020

Market distortions are precursors of an impending financial crisis.

Many analysts touted the mantra "Don't fight the FED" to induce people to invest.  However, these analysts do not understand true economics.  When the monetary pumping by the FED exceeds a certain threshold, the excessive money supplies will become useless and cannot save the economy.  Instead, excessive monetary policies will create market distortions (bubbles) and cause a financial crisis.

There are precursory signs in of distortions in different markets already.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/08/the-us-property-market-is-becoming.html

The property transaction volume and average selling price are trending higher in an economic downturn and this is an aberration because the general public cannot be upgrading in a bad time.  In a normal situation, people will upgrade in good times and downgrade in bad times.  This upward trend in a downturn shows that massive hot money (professional fund) has entered the US property market.  We are also seeing this phenomenon in the stock market.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/08/the-us-resale-car-market-is-being.html

Saturday, August 22, 2020

Baltic dry index- 1481

Today, Friday, August 21 2020, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 37 points, reaching 1,481 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

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Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 916

 

Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

The US property market is becoming distorted now!

 

The US residential property market is rebounding because of the artificially low mortgage rates and MBS purchases by the US FED.  The existing residential sales are at a 5-year high now with a high unemployment number and bad GDP number (-32.9% in Q2).

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/05/the-us-debt-market-is-going-to-implode.html

Even the CMBS market is also being affected now as shown below.  All these distortions are caused by the US FED with its stimulus.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/investors-scoop-office-cmbs-even-144158773.html

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/05/us-cmbs-is-in-precarious-situation-now_22.html

There are many market distortions showing up in the US now after the US government and FED dole the stimulus out.  There will be a big price to pay when these markets return to normalcy because these bubbles will burst.


Friday, August 21, 2020

The US resale car market is being distorted like the stock market. Who is to blame?

https://www.poynter.org/reporting-editing/2020/used-car-prices-are-spiking-during-the-coronavirus-pandemic/

If you just look at the US July resale car prices, you will be thinking that the US economy is booming because Americans are rushing to buy cars at higher prices as they've made a lot of monies.

However, the US GDP collapsed by 32.9% in Q2 and the resale car prices were crashing in April 2020.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/07/red-alert-us-economy-is-going-to.html

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/05/the-us-debt-market-is-going-to-implode.html

What is happening here?

The US resale car market is being distorted by the US FED and government.  The US FED started buying auto-maker bonds to support the automobiles industry and the government alsstarted giving out US$600 weekly pandemic relief aids to its citizens simultaneously.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/06/the-us-debt-market-is-going-to-implode.html

The US FED bond purchases have greatly reduced the vehicles' inventories for the individual buyers which cause the resale prices to spike.  Therefore, the resale car prices are being supported artificially and the resale market prices will return to normalcy when the US FED and government stop providing the stimulus.  I foresee that this will create bubbles in the resale and debt markets and these bubbles will burst in the future since some resale car prices are approaching new car prices.

Moya Asia - Stock calls

 

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
08/20/19DMG & PartnersMoya Asia0.0680.083BuyDCF
10/15/19DMG & PartnersMoya Asia0.0650.08Buy
01/09/20DMG & PartnersMoya Asia0.080.093BuyDCF
03/02/20DMG & PartnersMoya Asia0.0730.082BuyDCF

MM2 Asia - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
07/19/19DBS VickersMM2 Asia0.230.34BuyPER16x FY20
08/15/19DBS VickersMM2 Asia0.1970.29BuySum of parts
08/20/19Kim EngMM2 Asia0.1860.2HoldPEG1x
10/09/19CIMBMM2 Asia0.2150.32AddSum of parts
11/15/19DBS VickersMM2 Asia0.2850.3HoldSum of parts, PER12.8x FY20
03/25/20DBS VickersMM2 Asia0.1240.107Fully Valued
06/02/20DBS VickersMM2 Asia0.1750.14Fully ValuedSum of parts, PER6x FY21

Mindchamps - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
08/27/19DMG & PartnersMindchamps0.5250.83Buy
12/11/19DMG & PartnersMindchamps0.460.87Buy
03/02/20DMG & PartnersMindchamps0.3950.37NeutralDCF

Stock calls for 21 August 2020

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
08/21/20CIMBFrasers Centrepoint Trust2.372.78AddDDM
08/21/20Lim & TanInnotek0.390.5Accumulate
08/21/20PhillipJEP0.190.158ReducePB1x
08/21/20Lim & TanSingapore Medical0.2450Accumulate
08/21/20PhillipYoma0.290.46BuySum of parts (20% discount)

Thursday, August 20, 2020

Micro-Mechanics - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
09/03/19PhillipMicro-Mechanics1.591.6NeutralPER15x FY20
11/05/19PhillipMicro-Mechanics1.91.6Reduce
02/12/20PhillipMicro-Mechanics1.881.6ReducePER15x FY20
04/27/20PhillipMicro-Mechanics1.641.6Neutral
04/29/20UOB Kay HianMicro-Mechanics1.71.82HoldBuy @ $1.55
06/24/20Lim & TanMicro-Mechanics1.780Buy on weakness

Mermaid - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
07/29/20AmfrasersMermaid0.070.085NeutralSum of parts