Tuan Sing - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/16/20	DBS Vickers	Tuan Sing	0.235	0.38	Buy	Sum of parts
08/11/20	DBS Vickers	Tuan Sing	0.275	0.44	Buy	Sum of parts
09/15/20	DBS Vickers	Tuan Sing	0.295	0.44	Buy	Sum of parts
01/06/21	DBS Vickers	Tuan Sing	0.315	0.44	Buy

Stock calls for 1 March 2021

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/01/21	Kim Eng	AEM	4.03	5.05	Buy	PER14x FY21
03/01/21	DMG & Partners	Capitaland	3.18	3.75	Buy
03/01/21	UOB Kay Hian	City Developments	7.36	8.5	Buy
03/01/21	Kim Eng	First Resources	1.45	1.88	Buy
03/01/21	UOB Kay Hian	First Resources	1.45	1.7	Buy
03/01/21	DMG & Partners	First Resources	1.45	1.6	Neutral
03/01/21	Kim Eng	IHH Healthcare	1.69	2.07	Buy	Sum of parts, Ringgit $6.30 target price
03/01/21	Phillip	Ireit	0.655	0.7	Accumulate	DDM
03/01/21	Phillip	Koufu	0.66	0.68	Accumulate	PER18.5x FY21, Cut from $0.77
03/01/21	CIMB	Koufu	0.66	0.94	Add
03/01/21	phillip	OCBC	10.99	13.65	Buy	GGM, PB1.19x FY21
03/01/21	Lim & Tan	Oceanus	0.071	0	Take Profit
03/01/21	phillip	Propnex	0.81	1	Buy	DCF
03/01/21	DBS Vickers	Riverstone	1.36	1.85	Buy	PER12.3x FY21/22
03/01/21	CIMB	Riverstone	1.36	2.3	Add
03/01/21	DMG & Partners	Riverstone	1.36	1.85	Buy	DCF
03/01/21	Kim Eng	Sasseur	0.84	1.05	Buy	DDM
03/01/21	DBS Vickers	Sunpower	0.8	0.92	Buy	DCF, PER11.9x
03/01/21	Kim Eng	UMS	1.15	1.34	Buy
03/01/21	DBS Vickers	UMS	1.15	1.36	Buy	PER14.9x FY21
03/01/21	OCBC	UOB	24.62	27.3	Buy
03/01/21	DMG & Partners	UOB	24.62	26.4	Neutral	GGM, PB1.05x
03/01/21	CIMB	UOL	7.39	7.91	Add
03/01/21	Lim & Tan	UOL	7.39	0	Accumulate
03/01/21	Phillip	Venture	19.2	19.2	Neutral	PER16x FY21
03/01/21	Kim Eng	Venture	19.2	22	Buy	PER18.5x FY21
03/01/21	UOB Kay Hian	Venture	19.2	23.47	Buy
03/01/21	DBS Vickers	Venture	19.2	24.3	Buy	PER20.3x FY21
03/01/21	DMG & Partners	Venture	19.2	19.6	Neutral
03/01/21	UOB Kay Hian	Yangzijiang	1.07	1.25	Buy
03/01/21	DBS Vickers	Yangzijiang	1.07	1.5	Buy	Sum of parts

Hot news! China has just rolled out a single dose vaccine!

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202102/1216709.shtml

This is definitely great news as China's single-dose vaccine can be further strengthened with a booster to prolong the immunity period to 2 years.

This longer immunity period is very important as it can facilitate travelling and people don't have to take annual vaccinations for overseas trips.

Baltic dry index - 1675

 Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count (weekly) - 402

Related stock: Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

The US 7-year treasury bond sale was a flop!

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/treasury-yields-soar-after-catastrophic-tailing-7y-auction

TREASURY $62B 7-YEAR NOTE AUCTION RESULTS: 

DRAWS 1.195%

BID-TO-COVER: 2.04 Vs 2.30 PRIOR

Overseas Buyer: 38.06% Vs 64.10% PRIOR

We had already expressed our concern about the US treasury bond sales previously because the US had lost China and the EU as its buyers.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2021/01/the-achilles-heels-in-bidens-policies.html

This latest bond sale shows that foreigners are no longer interested to purchase US bonds.

The US is facing rising rates pressure in 2021. - Part 2

The US 10-year yield has breached 1.5% in Feb 2021 and is above the level in last Feb.

We did warn about the rising rates pressure last week.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2021/02/the-us-is-facing-rising-rates-pressure.html

For those who don't understand the bond structure, the bond price and yield have an inverse relationship because of the bond calculation method.

Bond Yield: 1.5% (The 10-year yield has been trending up.)

Bond price: $133.98 (The 10-year bond price has been trending down.)

In another perspective, the rises in bond yields can be viewed as an indication of impending inflation.  We had been projecting the 2021 US inflation in October 2020.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/10/the-us-inflation-is-coming-part-4.html

Some prominent economists are corroborating our projection now.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/bank-englands-haldane-warns-inflation-120928077.html

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/rates-may-rise-sooner-tame-124318828.html

Moreover, some commodities' prices have also been trending up, particularly the copper prices since copper is a ubiquitous industrial metal.  Thus, this will provide the oomph to a rise in the producer price index.

The spikes in bond yields had just caused some significant falls in the US stock markets recently.  Therefore, we need to watch out for the movements in bond yields and inflation.  A good indication of such a movement will be the 10-year breakeven inflation rate.

* 10-year breakeven inflation rate = (10-year nominal Treasury yield) - (10-year TIPS yield)

As we can see from the aforementioned chart, the 10-year breakeven inflation rate has been on an upward trend since 2020.  This shows the market expectation of future CPI inflation.