Wilmar - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/08/20	DMG & Partners	Wilmar	4.29	4.75	Buy	Sum of parts
01/08/20	Credit Sussie	Wilmar	4.29	4.8	Outperform
01/30/20	UOB Kay Hian	Wilmar	3.99	4.75	Buy
02/14/20	DMG & Partners	Wilmar	4.1	4.43	Buy	Sum of parts
02/21/20	CIMB	Wilmar	4.04	4.58	Add	Sum of parts
02/21/20	DMG & Partners	Wilmar	4.04	4.77	Buy	Sum of parts
02/21/20	UOB Kay Hian	Wilmar	4.04	4.75	Buy
02/24/20	UOB Kay Hian	Wilmar	4.11	4.6	Buy
02/24/20	DBS Vickers	Wilmar	4.11	4.6	Buy	Sum of parts, PER17.1x FY20
02/25/20	OCBC	Wilmar	4.05	4.64	Buy
02/25/20	Kim Eng	Wilmar	4.05	4.37	Hold
02/28/20	Morgan Stanley	Wilmar	4.15	5	Overweight
02/28/20	Credit Sussie	Wilmar	4.15	4.8	Outperform
02/28/20	JP Morgan	Wilmar	4.15	5	Overweight
03/24/20	DMG & Partners	Wilmar	2.9	4.3	Buy	Sum of parts
03/27/20	DBS Vickers	Wilmar	3.18	4	Buy	Sum of parts, PER16.3x FY20
03/30/20	UOB Kay Hian	Wilmar	3.22	4	Buy
04/07/20	DMG & Partners	Wilmar	3.4	4.3	Buy
04/13/20	DBS Vickers	Wilmar	3.43	4	Buy
04/30/20	UOB Kay Hian	Wilmar	3.46	4	Buy
04/30/20	OCBC	Wilmar	3.46	4.54	Buy
05/12/20	UOB Kay Hian	Wilmar	3.54	4	Buy	Sum of parts
05/12/20	CIMB	Wilmar	3.54	4.58	Add	Sum of parts
05/13/20	DMG & Partners	Wilmar	3.82	4.83	Buy	Sum of parts
05/13/20	DBS Vickers	Wilmar	3.82	4	Buy	Sum of parts, PER16.7x FY20
05/13/20	Kim Eng	Wilmar	3.82	4.12	Buy
06/11/20	UOB Kay Hian	Wilmar	4.04	4.8	Buy
06/24/20	DMG & Partners	Wilmar	4.18	4.87	Buy	Sum of parts
07/02/20	DBS Vickers	Wilmar	4.1	4.6	Buy	Sum of parts, PER19.6x FY20
08/07/20	DMG & Partners	Wilmar	4.79	5.45	Buy	Sum of parts
08/07/20	CIMB	Wilmar	4.79	5.53	Add	Sum of parts
08/13/20	Kim Eng	Wilmar	4.79	5.24	Buy	DCF & PER20.1x
08/13/20	DBS Vickers	Wilmar	4.79	5.28	Buy	Sum of parts, PER20.2x FY20
08/14/20	OCBC	Wilmar	4.87	5.4	Buy
09/07/20	DBS Vickers	Wilmar	4.37	5.28	Buy
09/15/20	UOB Kay Hian	Wilmar	4.15	5.35	Buy	Sum of parts
09/17/20	CIMB	Wilmar	4.3	5.53	Add	Sum of parts
10/01/20	Kim Eng	Wilmar	4.4	5.24	Buy
10/08/20	DMG & Partners	Wilmar	4.58	5.45	Buy
10/16/20	UOB Kay Hian	Wilmar	4.36	5.35	Buy
10/16/20	DMG & Partners	Wilmar	4.36	5.6	Buy
11/02/20	UOB Kay Hian	Wilmar	4.04	5.35	Buy
11/03/20	OCBC	Wilmar	4.25	5.4	Buy
11/03/20	DBS Vickers	Wilmar	4.25	5.28	Buy	Sum of parts, PER17.8x FY21
11/03/20	Lim & Tan	Wilmar	4.25	0	Accumulate
11/03/20	CIMB	Wilmar	4.25	5.54	Add
11/03/20	DMG & Partners	Wilmar	4.25	5.85	Buy
11/03/20	Kim Eng	Wilmar	4.25	5.4	Buy
12/08/20	CIMB	Wilmar	4.23	5.45	Add
01/07/21	DMG & Partners	Wilmar	4.95	6	Buy
01/13/21	UOB Kay Hian	Wilmar	5.08	6.4	Buy
01/14/21	Kim Eng	Wilmar	5.05	6.8	Buy	DCF & PER44x
01/21/21	DBS Vickers	Wilmar	5.34	6.67	Buy	Sum of parts, PER21x FY21
02/23/21	CIMB	Wilmar	5.51	6.15	Add	Sum of parts
02/23/21	UOB Kay Hian	Wilmar	5.51	6.4	Buy	PER26x FY21
02/23/21	DBS Vickers	Wilmar	5.51	6.67	Buy
02/23/21	DMG & Partners	Wilmar	5.51	6.3	Buy
02/24/21	OCBC	Wilmar	5.39	6.16	Buy

Vicplas - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
09/28/20	Lim & Tan	Vicplas	0.45	0	Take Profit

Stock calls for 5 March 2021

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/05/21	CIMB	China Sunsine	0.495	0.61	Add
03/05/21	DMG & Partners	EC World Reit	0.73	0.76	Neutral
03/05/21	DMG & Partners	HRnetGroup	0.58	0.72	Buy	PER15x FY21
03/05/21	OCBC	UOL	7.46	8.91	Buy	RNAV (30% discount)

China's monetary tightening will impact the USD. Why? - Part 2

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/china-tells-banks-scale-back-091926700.html

China is adamant in continuing its monetary tightening policies as the US economic risks will spread due to massive US stimulus packages.

We had already explained China's monetary tightening impacts below.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2021/02/chinas-monetary-tightening-will-impact.html

US FED has finally acknowledged that US will have higher inflation in 2021.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/powell-higher-inflation-temporary-fed-185342360.html

We had already stated that the US would have 2021 inflation in October 2020 and that it would face rising rates too.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/10/the-us-inflation-is-coming-part-4.html

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2021/02/the-us-is-facing-rising-rates-pressure_26.html

The US FED has corroborated our stance now.

India is smearing China again!

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/chinese-hackers-target-indian-vaccine-makers-sii-bharat-biotech-14308266

India had alleged that China hacked into its pharmaceutical company to access AstraZeneca's vaccine information and China had refuted this false allegation.

https://sports.yahoo.com/beijing-dismisses-alleged-chinese-hacking-154043814.html

Why was this a false allegation?

Yes, AstraZeneca outsourced the vaccine production to India but it also outsourced the same vaccine production to China.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca-china-partner-400-million-doses-14095130

Therefore, there is no need for China to hack into India's pharmaceutical company to access the same vaccine information when AstraZeneca has already provided the same information to China for vaccine production.

Nowadays, the western media and India like to create fake news to smear China and we need to do our own due diligence.  These news media will only make their own news publications worthless.  Therefore, I don't subscribe to these news media at all.

Stress in US repo market?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/2-u-10-treasuries-borrowing-012146344.html

The US 10-year repo rate has just turned NEGATIVE!

Basically, the US repo market has no liquidity nowadays and we've already expected this.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/07/the-us-repo-market-is-dead-which-is.html

It's been a long time since we've last looked at the US repo market.

As we can see from the screenshots, there is virtually no liquidity in the US short-term repo market.

Therefore, in order for the long-term repo (10-y) to dive into the negative territory will require massive shorts.  The investors are expecting the US treasury yields to continue to surge by shorting in the repo market.

We could see that the 10-y treasury yield had surged to 1.54% yesterday which was caused by the repo short.

How to predict a stock market chaos caused by a rising treasury yield?

Before we can try to predict a market movement, be it a rise or fall, we need to understand the impact of treasury yield (10-year) on the stock market (Please see below).

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2021/01/the-us-fed-is-lying-again.html

Since the treasury yield can impact the stock market, we will need to analyze another derivative that is closely related to the treasury yield so that we can deduce the treasury yield impact on the stock market.

I've decided to discuss the TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Security) since its yield is closely related to the treasury yield.

TIPS value is affected by inflation and its value will move according to inflation.  Let's look at an example below.

TIPS coupon rate (interest rate) = 1%

TIPS value = $1000

TIPS coupon = $1000 * 1% = $10

If the TIPS value rises to $1020 due to inflation, its coupon value will rise to $10.20 ($1020 * 1%) too.  This is the reason for it to be inflation-protected security since its value will move according to inflation.

The TIPS yield had been in negative territory for most of 2020 and the 30-year TIPS had turned positive recently prior to the market fall which was caused by the rising treasury yield.

TIPS yield = Treasury yield - inflation expectation

For example, if the treasury yield is 2% and the inflation expectation is 2.5, then the TIPS yield will be -0.5 (2% - 2.5%).

TIPS Yields (30y yield is positive)

30-year TIPS yield

Therefore, the TIPS yield could be a precursor of the stock market chaos, particularly in a rising treasury yield environment.

Vicom - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/20/20	Lim & Tan	Vicom	2.13	0	Hold