Stock calls for 19 March 2021

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/19/21	UOB Kay Hian	SATS	4.56	4.27	Hold
03/19/21	CIMB	SIA	5.69	6	Hold	PB1.06x FY22
03/19/21	Amfrasers	UMS	1.25	1.4	Outperform

Global rate hikes are coming! - Part 3

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/turkeys-central-bank-hikes-main-110600295.html

Turkey is the 2nd country to hike its rate by a big margin (200bp) after Brazil.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2021/03/global-rate-hikes-are-coming-part-2.html

Russia is also expected to raise its rate this year.

The world is starting to move in the opposite direction of the US and this will definitely reduce the efficacy of the US policy.

The US is facing rising rates pressure in 2021. - Part 3

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/18/us-bonds-10-year-treasury-yields-tops-1point7percent-despite-fed-reassurance-.html

The US 10-year treasury yield has reached 1.74%!

What does this mean?  It means that the investors don't believe in the US FED.

Well, we can't blame the investors for not believing in the US FED because he is a politically motivated lawyer with no economic or financial knowledge.  We did write about him previously.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2021/01/the-us-fed-is-lying-again.html

We were right about the rising rates and the treasury yields will continue their upward trends as stated.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2021/03/lets-get-into-minds-of-fund-managers.html

China Everbright - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/29/20	DBS Vickers	China Everbright	0.199	0.49	Buy	PER7x
08/14/20	DBS Vickers	China Everbright	0.235	0.33	Buy

China Aviation Oil - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/12/20	DMG & Partners	China Aviation Oil	1.02	1.25	Buy	Sum of parts, PER2.6x FY21 (ex-cash)
06/12/20	DMG & Partners	China Aviation Oil	1.14	1.25	Buy	PB0.9x, PER3.5x FY21 (ex-cash)
07/06/20	DMG & Partners	China Aviation Oil	1.02	1.25	Buy	Sum of parts
08/13/20	DMG & Partners	China Aviation Oil	0.93	0.95	Neutral	Sum of parts
08/25/20	DBS Vickers	China Aviation Oil	0.865	1.2	Buy	PER11x FY20/21
09/07/20	DBS Vickers	China Aviation Oil	0.94	1.2	Buy
09/30/20	DMG & Partners	China Aviation Oil	0.895	1.05	Buy
09/30/20	CIMB	China Aviation Oil	0.895	0.87	Hold	PER8.5x FY21
10/13/20	DBS Vickers	China Aviation Oil	1	1.2	Buy
10/14/20	DMG & Partners	China Aviation Oil	1	1.15	Buy
11/03/20	DBS Vickers	China Aviation Oil	0.92	1.2	Buy
12/02/20	DMG & Partners	China Aviation Oil	1.08	1.25	Buy
01/06/21	DBS Vickers	China Aviation Oil	1.08	1.2	Buy
01/26/21	DBS Vickers	China Aviation Oil	1.19	1.38	Buy	PER11x FY21
01/26/21	DMG & Partners	China Aviation Oil	1.19	1.27	Buy
03/02/21	CIMB	China Aviation Oil	1.12	1.17	Hold	PER10x FY22
03/02/21	DMG & Partners	China Aviation Oil	1.12	1.3	Buy
03/02/21	DBS Vickers	China Aviation Oil	1.12	1.38	Buy

Centurion - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/18/20	DBS Vickers	Centurion	0.375	0.42	Hold	DCF
08/13/20	DBS Vickers	Centurion	0.355	0.39	Hold	DCF
08/20/20	CIMB	Centurion	0.37	0.4	Add
09/03/20	CIMB	Centurion	0.35	0.4	Add	DCF
10/19/20	UOB Kay Hian	Centurion	0.34	0.44	Buy	DCF
03/02/21	DBS Vickers	Centurion	0.34	0.38	Hold
03/04/21	UOB Kay Hian	Centurion	0.34	0.445	Buy	PB0.6x

Stock calls for 18 March 2021

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/18/21	Macquarie	A-Reit	3.05	3.25	Outperform
03/18/21	UOB Kay Hian	A-Reit	3.05	3.82	Buy	DDM
03/18/21	Kim Eng	A-Reit	3.05	3.6	Buy
03/18/21	CIMB	A-Reit	3.05	3.3	Add
03/18/21	CIMB	Boustead	0.905	1.4	Add	Sum of parts
03/18/21	Lim & Tan	Mapletree Logistics	1.89	0	Hold
03/18/21	DBS Vickers	Nanofilm	4.65	6.22	Buy	PEG1.13x

Global rate hikes are coming! - Part 2

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/brazil-lifts-key-rate-2-214824039.html

Brazil has become the first country in the world to hike its rates by a big margin (75bp) and will continue to up its rate.  This is a very significant move in a pandemic time.  This just shows how dire the inflation situation can be in the future.

We've been warning about inflation since last year.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2021/03/the-us-inflation-is-coming-part-11.html

I think the only country in denial is the US now because the US FED has promised to keep its rates till 2023.

Let's get into the minds of fund managers!

https://www.hedgefundtips.com/march-bank-of-america-global-fund-manager-survey-results-summary-2/

These are taken from BofA global fund manager survey and I'll just highlight some important elements.

Inflation has become the top concern for fund managers in March 2021.

The bond market rout caused by rising yields is also a major concern for the fund manager.  By the way, the US bond yields are expected to rise further because of the yen carry trades since investors are taking arbitrage opportunities in the US-Japan interest differential which is expected to widen.  Therefore, the US is facing a double whammy now.  The first whammy is the declines in China credit impulse and the second whammy is the yen carry trade.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2021/03/chinas-monetary-tightening-will-impact_9.html

The yen started to depreciate (uptrend) against the USD in 2021!

The rising US rates will cause a US financial crisis. Here's why!

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/what-interest-rate-triggers-next-crisis

In this article, it is stated clearly that the US is overly dependent on unproductive debt.

As stated previously, the US was using $4 debt to produce just $1 GDP which was unsustainable.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/07/imf-is-warning-about-debt-crisis-now.html

When the US debt growth exceeds its GDP growth by a wide margin, it becomes unproductive and also creates a fundamental problem.  Furthermore, the US is leveraging while China and other countries are deleveraging which will reduce the efficacy of US economic policy.