Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
05/29/20 | DBS Vickers | China Everbright | 0.199 | 0.49 | Buy | PER7x |
08/14/20 | DBS Vickers | China Everbright | 0.235 | 0.33 | Buy |
Friday, June 11, 2021
China Everbright - Stock calls
China Aviation Oil - Stock calls
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
05/12/20 | DMG & Partners | China Aviation Oil | 1.02 | 1.25 | Buy | Sum of parts, PER2.6x FY21 (ex-cash) |
06/12/20 | DMG & Partners | China Aviation Oil | 1.14 | 1.25 | Buy | PB0.9x, PER3.5x FY21 (ex-cash) |
07/06/20 | DMG & Partners | China Aviation Oil | 1.02 | 1.25 | Buy | Sum of parts |
08/13/20 | DMG & Partners | China Aviation Oil | 0.93 | 0.95 | Neutral | Sum of parts |
08/25/20 | DBS Vickers | China Aviation Oil | 0.865 | 1.2 | Buy | PER11x FY20/21 |
09/07/20 | DBS Vickers | China Aviation Oil | 0.94 | 1.2 | Buy | |
09/30/20 | DMG & Partners | China Aviation Oil | 0.895 | 1.05 | Buy | |
09/30/20 | CIMB | China Aviation Oil | 0.895 | 0.87 | Hold | PER8.5x FY21 |
10/13/20 | DBS Vickers | China Aviation Oil | 1 | 1.2 | Buy | |
10/14/20 | DMG & Partners | China Aviation Oil | 1 | 1.15 | Buy | |
11/03/20 | DBS Vickers | China Aviation Oil | 0.92 | 1.2 | Buy | |
12/02/20 | DMG & Partners | China Aviation Oil | 1.08 | 1.25 | Buy | |
01/06/21 | DBS Vickers | China Aviation Oil | 1.08 | 1.2 | Buy | |
01/26/21 | DBS Vickers | China Aviation Oil | 1.19 | 1.38 | Buy | PER11x FY21 |
01/26/21 | DMG & Partners | China Aviation Oil | 1.19 | 1.27 | Buy | |
03/02/21 | CIMB | China Aviation Oil | 1.12 | 1.17 | Hold | PER10x FY22 |
03/02/21 | DMG & Partners | China Aviation Oil | 1.12 | 1.3 | Buy | |
03/02/21 | DBS Vickers | China Aviation Oil | 1.12 | 1.38 | Buy | |
04/30/21 | DMG & Partners | China Aviation Oil | 1.14 | 1.3 | Buy |
Stock calls for 11 June 2021
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
06/11/21 | CIMB | City Developments | 7.65 | 8.97 | Add | RNAV |
06/11/21 | CIMB | Grand Venture | 0.85 | 1.12 | Add | GGM, PB5.37x FY21 |
06/11/21 | DBS Vickers | Ho Bee | 2.95 | 3.8 | Buy | RNAV (40% discount) |
06/11/21 | Amfrasers | Q&M | 0.675 | 0.91 | Outperform | |
06/11/21 | UOB Kay Hian | Raffles Medical | 1.14 | 1.27 | Buy | DCF |
06/11/21 | DMG & Partners | Venture | 18.8 | 19.6 | Neutral | |
06/11/21 | DMG & Partners | Wilmar | 4.79 | 6.45 | Buy |
What is happening to the US treasury yield?
10-year treasury yield: Trending down.
The treasury price and its yield are inversely related which means that when its price moves up, its yield will move down and vice versa. The fall in the 10-year treasury yield shows that investors have been buying up the US treasuries and pushing their yields down. Why are investors buying treasuries?
The US has an excessive liquidity issue now because the banks and investors are returning the excess funds to the government in the revere repo market and buying the US treasuries. Now that we've established what's happening in the US treasury market, we will analyze the US treasury situation from another perspective.
10-year breakeven inflation rate (inflation expectation) formula:
10-year inflation expectation = 10-year treasury yield - 10-year Treasury inflation-protected security (TIPS)
June 10:
10-year treasury yield = 1.45%
10-year TIPS = -0.9%
10-year inflation expectation = 1.45% - (-0.9%) = 2.35%
Therefore, the 10-year treasury yield formula will be:
10-year treasury yield = 10-year inflation expectation + 10-year TIPS
1.45% = 2.35% + (-0.9%)
From the aforementioned formula, we can deduce that the investors are projecting the expected US inflation and TIPS to fall continuously because these 2 declines will cause the 10-year treasury yield to decline too.
In other words, the investors are stating that they expect US inflation to decline in the future by driving the US treasury yield down.
We've analyzed the US treasury market from 2 different perspectives and have reached 2 conclusions.
Conclusion 1:
The US treasury yield is trending lower because of excessive liquidity.
Conclusion 2:
The US treasury yield is trending lower because the investors are expecting lower inflation by investing in the US treasury.
Which conclusion is the truth?
Just watch what Yellen and Powell are doing and the truth will reveal itself. Cheers!
Why did US treasury secretary contact China Liu He? - Part 2
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/10/cpi-may-2021.html
Our suspicion was proven right! The US CPI hit 5% which was the highest since 2008.
No wonder Yellen had to call Liu He during his office hour (daytime) which meant that she called him during her nighttime because she knew that time was not on the US side.
She has to contain the US inflation fast if she doesn't want to see a financial crisis happening in 2022.
Furthermore, the US has an excessive liquidity problem as the US FED is collecting about US$500B daily in the reverse repo market now. Some of the excess funds also go into the treasury market and pushing down the treasury yields. The falls in the treasury yields mean that a bubble is forming in the treasury market now.
Thursday, June 10, 2021
Centurion - Stock calls
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
05/18/20 | DBS Vickers | Centurion | 0.375 | 0.42 | Hold | DCF |
08/13/20 | DBS Vickers | Centurion | 0.355 | 0.39 | Hold | DCF |
08/20/20 | CIMB | Centurion | 0.37 | 0.4 | Add | |
09/03/20 | CIMB | Centurion | 0.35 | 0.4 | Add | DCF |
10/19/20 | UOB Kay Hian | Centurion | 0.34 | 0.44 | Buy | DCF |
03/02/21 | DBS Vickers | Centurion | 0.34 | 0.38 | Hold | |
03/04/21 | UOB Kay Hian | Centurion | 0.34 | 0.445 | Buy | PB0.6x |
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