Metro - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/25/21	Lim & Tan	Metro	0.74	0	Accumulate

Stock calls for 11 January 2022

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/11/22	CIMB	AEM	4.99	7.9	Add
01/11/22	Lim & Tan	BRC Asia	1.54	2	Accumulate
01/11/22	DMG & Partners	Bumitama	0.555	0.47	Neutral
01/11/22	UOB Kay Hian	Comfortdelgro	1.34	1.9	Buy	PER18.2x FY22
01/11/22	DMG & Partners	First Resources	1.6	1.6	Neutral
01/11/22	DMG & Partners	Golden Agri	0.245	0.24	Neutral
01/11/22	UOB Kay Hian	Jiutian	0.078	0.14	Buy
01/11/22	Lim & Tan	SPH Reit	0.965	0	Neutral
01/11/22	DMG & Partners	UOB	29.16	33.5	Buy	GGM, PB1.2x FY22
01/11/22	DMG & Partners	Wilmar	4.3	5.05	Buy

The FED is forecast to hike rates 4 times in 2022.

The US Fed is way behind the inflation curve and has to hike its rates aggressively in 2022.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/us-fed-likely-raise-interest-044102834.html

We had already stated the inflation danger in June 2021.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2021/06/webcast-2-current-inflation-is-real-and.html

Megachem - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/24/21	SAC Capital	Megachem	0.39	0.55	Buy	PER11.4x FY21, PB1.3x, Up from $0.5

Medtecs - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/03/21	DBS Vickers	Medtecs	0.955	1.25	Buy	PER9.5x FY21/22
05/07/21	DBS Vickers	Medtecs	1.03	0.92	Hold	PER10x FY22, Cut from $1.05

Marco Polo - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/16/21	DMG & Partners	Marco Polo	0.02	0.041	Buy
07/14/21	UOB Kay Hian	Marco Polo	0.029	0.036	Buy	PB1.1x FY22
08/31/21	DMG & Partners	Marco Polo	0.026	0.041	Buy
11/29/21	DMG & Partners	Marco Polo	0.029	0.04	Buy
12/09/21	UOB Kay Hian	Marco Polo	0.028	0.038	Buy	PB1.1x FY22
01/05/22	SAC Capital	Marco Polo	0.028	0.032	Buy	PER8x FY22

Stock calls for 10 January 2022

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/10/22	UOB Kay Hian	Aztech	0.885	1.55	Buy	PER13.3x FY22
01/10/22	Macquarie	DBS	34.37	36.7	outperform	PB
01/10/22	DMG & Partners	Food Empire	0.765	1.01	Buy
01/10/22	DBS Vickers	Ifast Corp	7.85	11.37	Buy	DCF
01/10/22	Citi Research	Ifast Corp	7.85	7.5	Sell
01/10/22	UBS	Ifast Corp	7.85	11	Buy
01/10/22	DBS Vickers	SPH Reit	0.98	0.92	Hold
01/10/22	CIMB	SPH Reit	0.98	1.03	Add	DDM
01/10/22	Macquarie	UOB	28.29	33	Outperform	PB

Red alert: A new variant has emerged in Cyprus and it is called deltacron.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/08/cyprus-reportedly-discovers-a-covid-variant-that-combines-omicron-and-delta.html

Deltacron has the genome make-ups of both omicron and delta.  This is the 2nd new variant after the IHU variant in France.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2022/01/red-alert-more-infectious-and-stronger.html

Covid is not a flu and it will cause permanent damages to your body. - Part 2

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202201/1245410.shtml

Just like the WHO's recent announcement, China's top infectious disease expert has stated that omicron is not a mild virus like the flu.

We had also stated this in our previous posting and we didn't like the media stating omicron variant was a mild virus equivalent to the flu.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2022/01/covid-is-not-flu-and-it-will-cause.html

Analyses of US main street economic indicators. - Part 2

The US and China have diverging economic policies nowadays because of the US-China trade war.  Let's take a look at the impacts.

The PMI is a precursor to future GDP performance and we've explained this relationship previously.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/the-us-economy-has-flipped-and-fissures.html

CPI/PPI ---> M1-M2 spread/3m-10y yield spread ---> PMI ---> GDP

Let's take a look at the PMIs now.

China - The PMI had rebounded from its trough.

USA - The PMI had started to decline.

From the PMI statistics, we've created a chart to show the positions of the US and China on the manufacturing life cycle.

In 2021, China had been reducing its credit impulse while the US had been increasing its credit impulse.

*Credit impulse = Credit/GDP

However, in 2022, the US will be conducting quantitative tapering (QT) by ending its asset purchases in March 2022 and hiking its benchmark rates.  Conversely, China will be implementing quantitative easing (QE) by reducing its benchmark rates and increasing its liquidity in 2022.

In conclusion, China's GDP will be growing but the US GDP will be slowing in 2022.

Baltic dry index - 2289

 Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count (weekly) - 588

Related stock: Sembcorp Marine & Coso.

Singapore did very badly on the covid-19 recovery index. - Part 3

Singapore had done well in December 2021 because it had leaped from 96 to 23.  Well done, Singapore!

Analyses of US main street economic indicators.

Let's take a look at the main street indicators to decipher the true economic conditions in the US.

The US quits rate had reached a record high of 4.5m people (3%) in November 2021.

What had happened?  We will explain this in the next chart below.

The CPI has been exceeding the wage growth (hourly earnings) for many months already and this inflation phenomenon has reduced the US employees' purchasing power and personal savings.  Therefore, many people (4.5m) have quit their jobs to seek greener pastures and reprioritize their lives.  This has resulted in a huge mismatch between jobs and seekers which leaves an unfilled position of 4m jobs.

As the labour force participation rate is still below the pre-pandemic level, the unemployment rate continues to trend lower because many are still not seeking jobs.  However, this decline has probably reached its doldrum or near its lowest point because the US is considered to be getting a full employment rate now.