Stock calls for 14 February 2022

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/14/22	Phillip	BRC Asia	1.68	1.84	Buy	PER11x FY22
02/14/22	CIMB	DBS	37.25	39.2	Add	GGM
02/14/22	UOB Kay Hian	Digicore Reit	1.16	1.32	Buy	DDM
02/14/22	Lim & Tan	Grand Bank	0.305	0	Accumulate on weakness
02/14/22	Amfrasers	Grand Venture	1.1	1.37	Buy
02/14/22	UOB Kay Hian	MM2 Asia	0.05	0.115	Buy	Sum of parts
02/14/22	Amfrasers	Rex	0.39	0.5	Outperform
02/14/22	phillip	SGX	9.75	10.78	Neutral	PER25x FY22
02/14/22	UOB Kay Hian	Singtel	2.55	2.75	Buy	DCF
02/14/22	Lim & Tan	Spindex	1.31	0	Accumulate
02/14/22	UOB Kay Hian	Starhub	1.33	1.3	Hold	DCF
02/14/22	Phillip	Starhub	1.33	1.35	Neutral	EV/Ebitda8x FY22
02/14/22	DBS Vickers	Starhub	1.33	1.31	Hold	DCF
02/14/22	Kim Eng	Starhub	1.33	1.45	Hold

mRNA vaccine booster efficacy can only last 4 months.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/covid-booster-efficacy-wanes-significantly-220805373.html

The latest US study shows that mRNA vaccine booster efficacy will wane significantly after 4 months.  Therefore, it looks like we'll need the 4th booster again this year.  Sigh!

US consumer sentiment fell further!

The fall in US consumer sentiment will translate into weaker consumer spending in the future because consumers will rein in their spending when they don't feel confident about the future.  This doesn't bode well for the US because consumer spending constitutes 70% of US GDP.

Baltic dry index - 1977

 
Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count (weekly) - 635

 Related stock: Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

How high should be the FED fund rate be given the present inflation and economic condition?

Based on the current inflation and economic condition, the Taylor Rule estimate is projecting that the Fed fund rate should be at 11% instead of the current 0-0.25% range.

This shows that the FED is way behind the inflation curve and it has to ramp up the interest rate in an aggressive manner.

However, the economic condition is deteriorating in 2022 as stated by the Citi economic surprise index because the real economic situation is underperforming.  The current Citi economic surprise index is in the negative value now (10 Feb 2022).  Please click below for the explanation.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2021/12/how-likely-is-us-fed-behind-inflation.html

This doesn't bode well for the US as increasing the FED rate aggressively in an economic downturn is a perfect recipe for a major disaster (financial crisis).

United Hampshire - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/11/21	UOB Kay Hian	United Hampshire	0.645	0.92	Buy
03/02/21	UOB Kay Hian	United Hampshire	0.67	0.95	Buy
05/17/21	UOB Kay Hian	United Hampshire	0.69	0.95	Buy
10/06/21	Lim & Tan	United Hampshire	0.665	0.87	Buy	DDM
10/08/21	HSBC	United Hampshire	0.68	0.85	Buy
01/12/22	UOB Kay Hian	United Hampshire	0.66	0.95	Buy	DDM

United Global - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/18/21	SAC Capital	United Global	0.4	0.445	Hold

Uni-Asia - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/24/21	Amfrasers	Uni-Asia	0.665	0.91	Outperform	Sum of parts
06/25/21	Amfrasers	Uni-Asia	0.85	0.91	Outperform	Sum of parts
07/07/21	Amfrasers	Uni-Asia	0.93	1.42	Outperform	Sum of parts
08/17/21	Amfrasers	Uni-Asia	1.09	1.56	Buy	Sum of parts, PB0.73x FY21
10/29/21	UOB Kay Hian	Uni-Asia	1.4	2.34	Buy	PER8x FY21
11/16/21	UOB Kay Hian	Uni-Asia	1.32	2.34	Buy	PER8x FY21
11/22/21	Amfrasers	Uni-Asia	1.32	1.56	Buy	Sum of parts
12/06/21	UOB Kay Hian	Uni-Asia	1.3	2.34	Buy	PER8x FY21
01/03/22	UOB Kay Hian	Uni-Asia	1.23	2.34	Buy	PER8x FY22

Stock calls for 11 February 2022

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/11/22	OCBC	A-Reit	2.89	3.63	Buy
02/11/22	Phillip	ART	1.06	1.22	Accumulate	DDM
02/11/22	Lim & Tan	Avi-Tech	0.36	0	Accumulate
02/11/22	Lim & Tan	BRC Asia	1.7	2	Accumulate
02/11/22	DMG & Partners	Bumitama	0.59	0.56	Neutral
02/11/22	Kim Eng	Capitaland Investment	3.74	4.3	Buy	PB1.25x FY22
02/11/22	DMG & Partners	Frencken	1.76	2.64	Buy
02/11/22	Phillip	Keppel Corp	6.03	7.07	Buy	Sum of parts
02/11/22	OCBC	Manulife US Reit	0.65	0.8	Buy
02/11/22	UOB Kay Hian	Parkway Life	4.62	4.72	Hold
02/11/22	CIMB	Q&M	0.565	0.785	Add
02/11/22	DBS Vickers	SPH	2.33	2.1	Hold
02/11/22	UOB Kay Hian	Venture	18.54	22.04	Buy	PER19.5x FY22

The US 10-year treasury yield is approaching 2% soon! - Part 2

The US 10-year treasury yield has exceeded 2% as we've projected.  We're proven right again. Yeah!

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2022/02/the-us-10-year-treasury-yield-is.html

China new loans will increase significantly as projected. - Part 2

 

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2022/02/china-new-loans-will-increase.html

US inflation hit 7.5% in January 2022.

The US CPI hit 7.5% in January 2022.

The US core CPI also hit a record high at 6%.

The main contributors to the high inflation were food and energy in January and these 2 categories were daily necessities consumed by every American.