Singapore Nodx increased 9.5% in February 2022.

https://www.theedgesingapore.com/news/singapore-economy/singapores-nodx-expands-95-february-easing-januarys-growth

Year on year changes (YOY):

February 2022: 9.5%

January 2022: 17.6%

December 2021: 18.4%

November 2021: 24.2%

October 2021: 17.9%

September 2021: 12.3%

August 2021: 2.7%

July 2021: 12.7%

June 2021: 15.9%

May 2021: 8.8%

April 2021: 6%

March 2021: 12.1%

February 2021: 4.2%

January 2021: 12.8%

December 2020: 6.8%

November 2020: -4.9%

October 2020: -3.1%

September 2020: 5.9%

August 2020: 7.7%

July 2020: 6%

June 2020: 16.1% (Revised to 13.9%)

May 2020: -4.6%

April 2020: 9.7%

March 2020: 17.6%

February 2020: 3% (Revised to 3.1%)

January 2020: - 3.3%

December 2019: 2.4%

November 2019: - 5.9%

October 2019: - 12.3%

September 2019: -8.1%

August 2019: - 8.9%

July 2019: -11.2%

June 2019: -17.3%

May 2019: -15.9%

April 2019: -10%

March 2019: -11.7%

February 2019: 4.9%

January 2019: -10.1%

December 2018: -8.5%

November 2018: -2.6%

October 2018: 8.3%

September 2018: 8.3%

August 2018: 5%

July 2018: 11.8% (Corrected)

June 2018: 1.1%

May 2018: 15.5%

April 2018: 11.8%

March 2018: -2.7%

February 2018: -5.9%

January 2018: 13%

December 2017: 3.1%

November 2017: 9.1%

October 2017: 20.9%

September 2017: -1.1%

August 2017: 16.7%

July 2017: 8.5%

June 2017: 8.2%

May 2017: -1.2%

Apr 2017: -0.7%

Mar 2017: 16.5%

Feb 2017: 21.1%

What will the US FED do for its March 2022 meeting? - Part 2

Bingo! We've got it right again!  The US FED has hiked its interest rate by 25bp in March 2022.  This was exactly what we had projected and there was no black swan event.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2022/03/what-will-us-fed-do-for-its-march-2022.html

Let me give you some highlights of the meeting.

The dot plot chart in March indicated there would be a total of 7 interest rate hikes in 2022.  Therefore, the US FED will hike 25bp for each of the 6 remaining meetings in 2022 to make up for a total of 7 hikes.

The FED meeting had also indicated that the US would be having a diminishing marginal GDP growth in each year till 2024 because its GDP would be affected by 3 years of quantitative tapering.

The FED preferred inflation indicator (Core PCE inflation) had also jumped by a much bigger margin than December's projection.  The PCE inflation had indicated that the FED was way behind the inflation curve and the FED would need to do more to rein in the US inflation.  However, the US president will be having a mid-term election in November 2022 and any aggressive hike in the 2nd half of this year will be detrimental to the November election.  Thus, the FED will do any aggressive hike in the 1st half of this year if necessary.

How was China doing in the first 2 months of 2022?

China retail sales rose 6.7% yoy for Jan-Feb 2022 and its industrial production rose 7.5% yoy.  This bodes well for China but the pace may be disrupted because of the Ukraine war.

How's the US market sentiment?

Let's take a look at the global fund manager survey and look at the market sentiment.

60% of the fund managers expected a bear market in 2022.

51% of the fund managers are expecting the inflation to be permanent now.

62% of the fund managers are expecting stagflation to occur.

Citigroup had revised down global earnings in Feb 2022.

In view of all these charts, we can see that the finance professionals are getting bearish of the outlook in 2022.

New York manufacturing index had plunged significantly in February 2022.

The NY manufacturing index had suffered a significant plunge (-11.8) in Feb 2022 which meant that consumer demand had declined because of the elevated inflation.  This also meant that frontloading by consumers had stalled.  This will definitely affect the next PMI reading.

Fortress Minerals - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/18/21	Phillip	Fortress Minerals	0.31	0.47	Buy	PER11x FY21
04/26/21	Phillip	Fortress Minerals	0.445	0.64	Buy	PER11x FY22
07/16/21	Phillip	Fortress Minerals	0.68	0.81	Buy	PER10x FY22
10/15/21	Phillip	Fortress Minerals	0.465	0.51	Accumulate
01/19/22	Phillip	Fortress Minerals	0.44	0.5	Accumulate	PER10x FY22
03/07/22	Amfrasers	Fortress Minerals	0.505	0.6	Buy

Food Empire - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/14/21	UOB Kay Hian	Food Empire	0.75	0.88	Buy	PER12.3x FY21
01/18/21	UOB Kay Hian	Food Empire	0.75	0.95	Buy
02/08/21	DMG & Partners	Food Empire	0.875	1.27	Buy
02/09/21	UOB Kay Hian	Food Empire	0.955	1.3	Buy
03/02/21	DMG & Partners	Food Empire	0.915	1.27	Buy
03/04/21	Lim & Tan	Food Empire	0.905	0	Accumulate on weakness
05/14/21	UOB Kay Hian	Food Empire	0.86	1.3	Buy
05/17/21	DMG & Partners	Food Empire	0.84	1.27	Buy
06/07/21	UOB Kay Hian	Food Empire	0.915	1.3	Buy
06/23/21	Lim & Tan	Food Empire	0.89	1.2	Accumulate
07/07/21	DMG & Partners	Food Empire	0.88	1.27	Buy
08/17/21	DMG & Partners	Food Empire	0.81	1.23	Buy	PER15x FY22
09/02/21	UOB Kay Hian	Food Empire	0.78	1.3	Buy
09/27/21	Lim & Tan	Food Empire	0.76	1.26	Accumulate
10/05/21	DMG & Partners	Food Empire	0.77	1.23	Buy	PER15x FY22
11/10/21	Lim & Tan	Food Empire	0.81	1.26	Accumulate
11/15/21	UOB Kay Hian	Food Empire	0.79	1.3	Buy	PER16.6x FY22
01/10/22	DMG & Partners	Food Empire	0.765	1.01	Buy
02/28/22	DMG & Partners	Food Empire	0.58	0.93	Buy

First Sponsor - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/18/21	Phillip	First Sponsor	1.33	1.56	Buy	Sum of parts (20% discount)
04/29/21	Phillip	First Sponsor	1.39	1.55	Accumulate	Sum of parts (20% discount)
08/04/21	Phillip	First Sponsor	1.36	1.56	Accumulate	Sum of parts (20% discount)
09/21/21	Phillip	First Sponsor	1.36	1.65	Buy	RNAV (30% discount)
02/25/22	Phillip	First Sponsor	1.35	1.39	Hold	Sum of parts