Stock calls for 6 May 2022

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/06/22	DBS Vickers	AEM	4.84	6.04	Buy
05/06/22	Lim & Tan	AEM	4.84	6.24	Buy
05/06/22	CIMB	ART	1.16	1.24	Add
05/06/22	OCBC	ART	1.16	1.3	Buy
05/06/22	DBS Vickers	Frasers Logistics	1.45	1.85	Buy
05/06/22	UOB Kay Hian	Japfa	0.605	0.63	Hold	Sum of parts, PER9.1x FY22, Buy @ $0.56
05/06/22	UOB Kay Hian	Lendlease Reit	0.81	1.05	Buy	DDM
05/06/22	DBS Vickers	OCBC	12.35	15	Buy
05/06/22	Lim & Tan	SIA Engineering	2.66	2.82	Neutral

Will the US be heading for a soft or hard landing? - Part 2

It is inevitable that the US will encounter a hard landing with its latest 50bp rate hike because the US Fed is way behind the inflation curve.

The latest job openings and quits statistics showed a huge mismatch in the labour market and this would cause the employment cost to spike as shown below.  The sticky wage model shows that salary increment is a long-term inflation issue because it is very difficult to reduce after an increment.

Subsequently, elevated inflation will cause a recession when the sky-high inflation is not contained.  According to the modified Taylor rule calculation, the fed fund rate should be above 10% to contain the 8.5% inflation.  However, the fed fund rate won't even exceed 3% by the end of 2022 at the current pace of rate hikes.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2022/05/will-us-be-heading-for-soft-or-hard.html

Conversely, the UK has a 7% inflation and it has just hiked its rate to 1% which is a 13-year high.  Furthermore, the UK is also projecting a 10% inflation for the coming months which is even higher than the US when the UK has a lower inflation rate than the US (8.5%) now.

Therefore, it is highly likely that the US will encounter a hard landing as stated by the former NY Fed chief.

SPH Reit - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/13/21	Lim & Tan	SPH Reit	0.925	1.03	Accumulate
07/16/21	CIMB	SPH Reit	0.945	1.06	Add
07/16/21	Kim Eng	SPH Reit	0.945	0.8	Hold	DDM
08/03/21	DBS Vickers	SPH Reit	0.905	0.92	Hold	DCF
08/03/21	Lim & Tan	SPH Reit	0.905	0	Hold
08/27/21	CIMB	SPH Reit	0.89	1.04	Add	DDM
08/27/21	OCBC	SPH Reit	0.89	0.92	Hold
10/05/21	DBS Vickers	SPH Reit	0.93	0.92	Hold
10/05/21	Lim & Tan	SPH Reit	0.93	0.95	Hold
10/06/21	CIMB	SPH Reit	0.94	1.03	Add	DDM
01/10/22	CIMB	SPH Reit	0.98	1.03	Add	DDM
01/10/22	DBS Vickers	SPH Reit	0.98	0.92	Hold
01/11/22	Lim & Tan	SPH Reit	0.965	0	Neutral
01/12/22	Kim Eng	SPH Reit	0.975	0.95	Hold
01/12/22	OCBC	SPH Reit	0.975	0.95	Hold
04/04/22	CIMB	SPH Reit	0.97	0.95	Hold
04/04/22	DBS Vickers	SPH Reit	0.97	0.964	Hold
04/04/22	Kim Eng	SPH Reit	0.97	0.95	Hold
04/04/22	Lim & Tan	SPH Reit	0.97	0.96	Hold

SPH - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/18/21	CIMB	SPH	1.83	2.19	Add	PB
07/21/21	Lim & Tan	SPH	1.8	0	Accumulate
07/21/21	UOB Kay Hian	SPH	1.8	2	Buy	Sum of parts
08/03/21	CIMB	SPH	1.88	2.19	Buy	Sum of parts
08/03/21	DBS Vickers	SPH	1.88	2.1	Accept offer	offer price $2.099
08/03/21	Lim & Tan	SPH	1.88	0	Accept offer	offer price $2.099
08/05/21	OCBC	SPH	1.92	1.92	Hold
08/05/21	UOB Kay Hian	SPH	1.92	2.1	Buy	Sum of parts (5% disc)
10/06/21	Lim & Tan	SPH	1.98	0	Hold
10/07/21	UOB Kay Hian	SPH	1.98	2.1	Accept offer	Sum of parts
11/02/21	UOB Kay Hian	SPH	2.12	2.15	Accept offer
11/11/21	UOB Kay Hian	SPH	2.16	2.35	Accept offer	offer price $2.35
11/16/21	UOB Kay Hian	SPH	2.33	2.4	Accept offer
12/23/21	Lim & Tan	SPH	2.34	0	Accept offer	Accept Cuscaden & Reject Keppel
02/10/22	CIMB	SPH	2.33	2.11	Hold
02/11/22	DBS Vickers	SPH	2.33	2.1	Hold
03/24/22	UOB Kay Hian	SPH	2.35	2.4	Accept offer