UOB - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/02/21	DBS Vickers	UOB	26.31	29.2	Buy	GGM, PB1.1x FY22
06/07/21	Kim Eng	UOB	26.1	29.34	Buy
06/07/21	phillip	UOB	26.1	28.7	Accumulate
06/29/21	CIMB	UOB	25.75	28.84	Add
07/05/21	Macquarie	UOB	25.85	30	Outperform
07/09/21	phillip	UOB	25.58	28.7	Accumulate
07/23/21	DBS Vickers	UOB	25.92	29.2	Buy	PB
07/29/21	CIMB	UOB	25.92	28.84	Add
08/04/21	DBS Vickers	UOB	25.85	29.2	Buy	GGM, PB1.1x FY22
08/04/21	Lim & Tan	UOB	25.85	30	Buy
08/05/21	Kim Eng	UOB	26.31	29.34	Buy
08/05/21	phillip	UOB	26.31	29	Accumulate	GGM, PB1.17x FY21
08/06/21	CIMB	UOB	26.49	29	Add
08/06/21	DMG & Partners	UOB	26.49	30.2	Buy
08/06/21	Macquarie	UOB	26.49	30	Outperform
08/06/21	OCBC	UOB	26.49	30.5	Buy	GGM, PB1.32x
09/01/21	CIMB	UOB	25.58	29	Add
09/02/21	Macquarie	UOB	25.65	31.8	Outperform	PB
09/16/21	DMG & Partners	UOB	25.6	30.2	Buy
10/01/21	DBS Vickers	UOB	25.85	29.2	Buy
10/20/21	Kim Eng	UOB	26.77	29.34	Buy
10/20/21	Macquarie	UOB	26.77	33.5	Outperform
10/22/21	DMG & Partners	UOB	26.8	30.2	Buy
11/03/21	DBS Vickers	UOB	27.39	29.2	Buy	GGM, PB1.1x FY22
11/03/21	Lim & Tan	UOB	27.39	0	Accumulate
11/03/21	Macquarie	UOB	27.39	33.5	Outperform	PB
11/05/21	Kim Eng	UOB	27.2	31.15	Buy	DDM
11/05/21	phillip	UOB	27.2	29	Accumulate	GGM, PB1.17x FY21
11/08/21	Jefferies	UOB	27.58	32.5	Buy
11/08/21	Macquarie	UOB	27.58	33	Outperform	PB
11/10/21	CIMB	UOB	27.9	30.3	Add
11/10/21	DBS Vickers	UOB	27.9	31	Buy	GGM, PB1.2x FY22
11/10/21	DMG & Partners	UOB	27.9	33.5	Buy	GGM, PB1.2x
12/01/21	DBS Vickers	UOB	25.47	31	Buy
12/03/21	Macquarie	UOB	26.2	33	Outperform	PB
01/10/22	Jefferies	UOB	28.29	33	Buy
01/10/22	Macquarie	UOB	28.29	33	Outperform	PB
01/11/22	DMG & Partners	UOB	29.16	33.5	Buy	GGM, PB1.2x FY22
01/12/22	Kim Eng	UOB	29.33	31.15	Buy
01/14/22	OCBC	UOB	29.18	34.8	Buy
01/17/22	CIMB	UOB	29.93	33.5	Add
01/17/22	DBS Vickers	UOB	29.93	34.2	Buy	GGM, PB1.3x FY22
01/17/22	Jefferies	UOB	29.93	33.5	Buy
01/17/22	phillip	UOB	29.93	31.3	Buy	GGM, PB1.26x FY21
01/18/22	Lim & Tan	UOB	30.18	0	Accumulate
02/09/22	phillip	UOB	32.65	31.3	Accumulate
02/16/22	DBS Vickers	UOB	32.63	34.2	Buy
02/16/22	Lim & Tan	UOB	32.63	35.5	Accumulate
02/17/22	DBS Vickers	UOB	32.75	37	Buy	GGM, PB1.4x FY22
02/17/22	Kim Eng	UOB	32.75	36.69	Buy	GGM, PB1.4x FY22
02/17/22	OCBC	UOB	32.75	36.5	Buy
02/18/22	DMG & Partners	UOB	32.86	38.1	Buy	GGM, PB1.37x FY22
02/18/22	Jefferies	UOB	32.86	33.5	Buy
02/22/22	phillip	UOB	32.66	35.7	Buy	GGM, PB1.46x FY22
03/01/22	CIMB	UOB	29.91	35.4	Add
03/09/22	phillip	UOB	28.27	35.7	Accumulate
03/25/22	Lim & Tan	UOB	32.03	0	Accumulate
03/28/22	DBS Vickers	UOB	32.15	37	Buy
04/01/22	CIMB	UOB	32.02	35.4	Add
04/04/22	Jefferies	UOB	31.96	32	Hold
04/07/22	DMG & Partners	UOB	31.75	38.1	Buy
04/07/22	phillip	UOB	31.75	35.7	Accumulate
04/12/22	Lim & Tan	UOB	31.5	36	Accumulate
04/18/22	Kim Eng	UOB	30.76	36.69	Buy
04/29/22	Lim & Tan	UOB	30.14	36.04	Accumulate
04/29/22	OCBC	UOB	30.14	36.5	Buy
05/02/22	Kim Eng	UOB	29.99	34.62	Buy
05/04/22	CIMB	UOB	29.99	35.6	Add
05/05/22	DMG & Partners	UOB	30.24	32.7	Neutral	GGM, PB1.18x FY23
05/05/22	phillip	UOB	30.24	35.7	Accumulate	GGM, PB1.46x FY22
06/01/22	CIMB	UOB	29.51	35.6	Add
07/06/22	DBS Vickers	UOB	26.62	37	Buy
07/15/22	CIMB	UOB	26.05	35.6	Add	GGM
08/01/22	phillip	UOB	27.55	35.7	Buy	GGM, PB1.46x FY22
08/01/22	DBS Vickers	UOB	27.55	34.2	Buy
08/01/22	DMG & Partners	UOB	27.55	29.3	Neutral	GGM, PB1.08x FY23
08/01/22	CIMB	UOB	27.55	35.6	Add
08/01/22	Kim Eng	UOB	27.55	32.28	Buy
08/18/22	Lim & Tan	UOB	26.85	34	Accumulate

Stock calls for 24 August 2022

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/24/22	Lim & Tan	Avi-Tech	0.295	0	Hold
08/24/22	phillip	City Developments	8.23	8.86	Accumulate
08/24/22	CIMB	Hong Leong Asia	0.735	1.05	Add
08/24/22	Lim & Tan	Stamford Land	0.37	0	Accumulate

Unusual - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
09/23/21	DMG & Partners	Unusual	0.138	0.14	Neutral	Cut from $0.16
06/17/22	DMG & Partners	Unusual	0.135	0.14	Neutral	DCF
06/20/22	Amfrasers	Unusual	0.135	0.192	Outperform	DCF, PER38.1x FY23

United Hampshire - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
10/06/21	Lim & Tan	United Hampshire	0.665	0.87	Buy	DDM
10/08/21	HSBC	United Hampshire	0.68	0.85	Buy
01/12/22	UOB Kay Hian	United Hampshire	0.66	0.95	Buy	DDM
03/25/22	UOB Kay Hian	United Hampshire	0.62	0.97	Buy	DDM
05/20/22	UOB Kay Hian	United Hampshire	0.605	0.92	Buy
06/03/22	UOB Kay Hian	United Hampshire	0.61	0.88	Buy
06/24/22	UOB Kay Hian	United Hampshire	0.6	0.91	Buy	DDM

United Global - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/18/21	SAC Capital	United Global	0.4	0.445	Hold

Stock calls for 23 August 2022

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/23/22	DMG & Partners	AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit	1.38	1.66	Buy	DDM
08/23/22	SAC Capital	Megachem	0.5	0.58	Buy
08/23/22	CIMB	SIA	5.38	6.1	Add
08/23/22	Lim & Tan	Singapore Post	0.6	0.62	Hold
08/23/22	UOB Kay Hian	Tiong Woon	0.555	0.88	Buy	PB0.7x FY22
08/23/22	CIMB	UMS	1.26	2.03	Add	PER14.45x FY23
08/23/22	SAC Capital	UMS	1.26	1.75	Buy

The US is careening towards a recession based on its economic symptoms.

Let's do some fact checks first to determine the US economic symptoms.

1. CPI slowed marginally to 8.5% from 9.1%

2. Inventories are building up

3. Low unemployment rate of 3.5%

4. Negative quarterly growth (Q1:-1.6%, Q2:-0.9%)

5. High US debts

The aforesaid economic symptoms befit an economic model created by economist Goodhart (see below).

In this model, it was stated that when the interest rate rose in a low debt economy (a), the price (inflation) would decline significantly from P to P* and the economic output (GDP) would shrink from Y to Y*.

However, when the interest rate rose in a high debt economy (b), the price (inflation) would decline marginally from P to P* but the economic output (GDP) would shrink from Y to Y* significantly.

Under the high debt scenario, the producers would increase their production to achieve economies of scale in order to contain their costs and the unemployment rate would stay low because more workers were hired to churn out more goods and services.  Thus, there would be inventory buildups and higher wages first before the onset of high bankruptcies and retrenchments later.

The outcome of this model is that there will only be a marginal decline in inflation but a significant reduction in economic growth (recession).  Coincidentally, we're seeing all the economic symptoms now in the US which are portrayed by this economic model.

Uni-Asia - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/25/21	Amfrasers	Uni-Asia	0.85	0.91	Outperform	Sum of parts
07/07/21	Amfrasers	Uni-Asia	0.93	1.42	Outperform	Sum of parts
08/17/21	Amfrasers	Uni-Asia	1.09	1.56	Buy	Sum of parts, PB0.73x FY21
10/29/21	UOB Kay Hian	Uni-Asia	1.4	2.34	Buy	PER8x FY21
11/16/21	UOB Kay Hian	Uni-Asia	1.32	2.34	Buy	PER8x FY21
11/22/21	Amfrasers	Uni-Asia	1.32	1.56	Buy	Sum of parts
12/06/21	UOB Kay Hian	Uni-Asia	1.3	2.34	Buy	PER8x FY21
01/03/22	UOB Kay Hian	Uni-Asia	1.23	2.34	Buy	PER8x FY22
03/04/22	Amfrasers	Uni-Asia	1.13	1.66	Outperform	Sum of parts
03/21/22	UOB Kay Hian	Uni-Asia	1.13	2.48	Buy	PER6x FY22
07/01/22	phillip	Uni-Asia	1.04	1.26	Buy	PER3x FY22
08/19/22	phillip	Uni-Asia	1.11	1.26	Buy	PER3x FY22