Japan has suffered a bad karma for being USA staunch ally.

Japan has shot itself in its own foot by being USA staunch ally.

Firstly, Trump had slapped Japan PM right in the face by announcing the termination of TPP after he's in office even after Japan PM visited Trump.

Secondly, Russia will be deploying new missiles near Japan and there is nothing Japan can do about it. http://indianexpress.com/article/world/world-news/japan-protests-russia-missile-deployment-on-disputed-islands-4394955/

Thirdly, Vietnam is trying to appease China by terminating a Japanese nuclear project.  http://www.bestchinanews.com/International/3183.html

Will Malaysia award the HSR project to Japan or China? Let's see.

Will SG face the same predicament too?  Let's see.

Every country is trying to get distance itself from USA and get cozy with China.  Just look at latin America countries! See what Peru and Chile are doing with China!

How did analysts and news media get the stock market so wrong with Trump's win?

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-could-crash-if-donald-trump-is-elected-2016-10-31

http://fortune.com/2016/11/08/donald-trump-stocks-crash

Many analysts and news media predicted stock market crashes when Trump was elected president.  However, there was only a knee jerk reaction and the stock markets became euphoria with Trump being the president.

How did they get it so WRONG?

Well, either they were so biased and wanted to spread fears or they analysed the situation from only 1 single angle (uncertainty with Trump).  Nonetheless, they were dead wrong about the outcome.

Let's analyse the economic situation from a more objective perspective so that we can all understand the bullishness of the stock markets.

GDP = G + I + C + Nx (X-M)

Trump is a protectionist and will spend on local infrastructures (G).  This will improve employments and increase GDP since G is part of it.  The anticipated interest rate increase has caused funds (I) to flow back to USA which can be seen from USD appreciation.  Therefore, investments (I) have increased which will boost GDP since I is part of it.  Consumer consumption takes up more than 2/3 of USA GDP and consumerism will increase with better employment.  Although TPP will be terminated when Trump takes office, he is proposing bilateral trade agreements (Nx) with other countries instead of multi-lateral.  This will put USA in good stead as bilateral talks will give USA supreme bargaining power against other countries since it is the world's largest economy.  The new bilateral FTAs will have more economic benefits than TPP for USA and boost net exports (Nx).

Thus, stock markets have been trending upwards after Trump's win.  Japan stock market also benefitted a lot after Trump's win because of USD appreciation.  USD appreciation causes yen devaluation which will boost Japan's exports.

Pyramids in Antarctica!

http://humansarefree.com/2015/08/are-there-ancient-pyramids-in-antarctica.html

Why is gold losing its lustre?

Gold prices are falling for 2 fundamental reasons.  First is the appreciation of USD.  As USD rises, it gets more expensive to buy gold because gold is priced in USD in international market.  Investors will get lesser gold for the same amount of USD.  The 2nd reason is the rise in interest rate.  As gold is a zero interest yielding asset, it will lose its favour once other assets have higher yielding powers.  Gold is favoured in negative interest and low USD environment compared to other assets.

Why are asian currencies depreciating?

For RMB devaluation, please read our previous post, http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2016/11/high-interest-rate-environment-is-coming.html for more information.

Asian currencies are depreciating because of USD rises.  USD is rising because of the expected interest rate increases in December 2016 and also in 2017.

Funds are leaving Asia and flowing to USA because of higher investment yields due to higher interest rates.  Therefore, countries with lower foreign reserves will suffer more depreciations.  This can be seen from SGD vs MYR.  Due to the anticipated interest rate movements, fund managers will be dabbling in interest related derivatives whereby USA has the most liquid market because of arbitrage opportunities.  This explains why funds are pulling out of Asia and moving to USA.

Business and investment costs will go up soon in Asia and these will create inflations.  Subsequently, the vicious interest rates cycle will begin to form in the world until recession takes place.

Baltic dry index - 1181

Today, Friday, November 25 2016, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 20 points, reaching 1181 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

US rig count - 593

HOUSTON — The number of rigs exploring for oil and natural gas in the U.S. increased by five this week to 593.

A year ago, 744 rigs were active. Depressed energy prices have curtailed exploration although the rig count has been rising in recent weeks.

Houston oilfield services company Baker Hughes Inc. said 474 rigs sought oil and 118 explored for natural gas this week. One was listed as miscellaneous.

Pennsylvania gained four rigs, Texas three and Colorado two.

Wyoming declined by three, New Mexico two and North Dakota one.

Alaska, Arkansas, California, Kansas, Louisiana, Ohio, Oklahoma, Utah and West Virginia were unchanged.

The U.S. rig count peaked at 4,530 in 1981. It bottomed out in May at 404.

The weekly tally, normally released Friday, was released Wednesday because of Thanksgiving.

MARS 02

MARS 01

National Geographic latest documentary - MARS!

Before Mars.

Singapore stock calls for 25 November 2016

Latest update on 9 SG armoured tanks seized in HK port.

http://www.todayonline.com/singapore/9-armoured-vehicles-bound-spore-seized-hk

This was the first time Taiwan was tasked to ship the tanks back to SG and Taiwan screwed it up.  Previously, SG was responsible for all the shippings.  Taiwan was not supposed to en route to HK for this shipping trip but it entered HK port anyway and offloaded SG tanks.  SG tanks were secretly cordoned off in the port with surrounding containers to mask its presence but a whistle blower informed the port authority which resulted in the investigation and seizure.  Under HK laws, no military equipment can enter HK without authorization and HK has the right to seize such illegal military equipment.

China-Cambodia port is going to start operation soon!

This new deep sea port is capable for berthing China aircraft carrier and can be turned into a military seaport anytime.  This port will be under China management for 99 years to safeguard its interest in south east asia.

http://english.cctv.com/2016/10/13/VIDEUV5FyRopLpEeJ2N0HFK8161013.shtml

Look like SG heyday is over!

Dubai new hyperloop train! Super cool and fast!

With a speed faster than Boeing 747, it can transport people and cargoes in a super short time.  This train can travel 150km in just 12mins.  Dubai will be the first country in the world to construct this vacuum tube train.

Singapore stock calls for 24 November 2016

China sky train starts operation!

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/chinas-first-sky-train-starts-132349986.html

Wow! Amazing!

Singapore downgrades its GDP growth in 2016.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/singapore-downgrades-2016-gdp-exports-003300147.html

Our government's estimate (-4.1%) was overly pessimistic on 14 October compared to the actual fall of -2%.  Was this due to being too conservative or our government economist was too lousy?  The estimation was too way off!

UFO captured on NASA cam.

Singapore stock calls for 23 November 2016

Singapore port volume is expected to decline again in 2016!

The TEU in 2015 was 30.92m.  If we analyse the figures in 2016 as shown above, the expected TEU in 2016 will be around 30.5m.  Therefore, the 9% drop in 2015 is not an aberration but is the harbinger of further fall in 2016.  Look like China has succeeded in containing Singapore growth.