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Saturday, December 17, 2016

Baltic dry index - 946

Today, Friday, December 16 2016, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 20 points, reaching 946 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

US rig count - 637

HOUSTON (AP) -- The number of rigs exploring for oil and natural gas in the U.S. increased by 13 this week to 637.
A year ago, 709 rigs were active. Depressed energy prices have curtailed exploration, although the rig count has been rising in recent weeks.
Houston oilfield services company Baker Hughes Inc. said Friday that 510 rigs sought oil and 126 explored for natural gas this week. One was listed as miscellaneous.
Texas gained 14 rigs, New Mexico gained two and Colorado added one.
Oklahoma and Wyoming each declined by two, and North Dakota lost one.
Alaska, Arkansas, California, Kansas, Louisiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Utah and West Virginia were unchanged.
The U.S. rig count peaked at 4,530 in 1981. It bottomed out in May at 404.

China has been selling US bonds!

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/japan-tops-china-largest-holder-210357229.html

In order to cut its foreign reserves losses, China has been selling its US bonds.  However, this is more than meets eye.  China is trying to shift its backbone support of renminbi to a basket of currencies instead of relying on USD only.  In other words, China doesn't want the strength of RMB to be based on USD only.  Furthermore, selling US bonds will thwart the rises in interest rates and impede RMB depreciation which is a win-win strategy for China.

Thursday, December 15, 2016

China is trading with Europe by railways!

China started to export coffee to Europe by railway in 2015.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/m/yunnan/puer/2015-07/03/content_21175803.htm

Myanmar port is connected to Yunan and China can use Myanmar port to import and export without going through SG.

China has started to import fresh produces from Europe by railway in 2016.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2016-12/12/content_27640943.htm

China has used the one-belt-one-road developments to reduce sea freights and also bypass SG for its own strategic interest and is successfully in doing it.  SG can longer earn anything between China and Europe anymore.

Trade war has started!

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/international/china-to-fine-us-automaker-china-daily/3367204.html

USA, EU and Japan don't want to grant market economy status to China in WTO and USA doesn't want to stick to the one china policy.  All these antagonise China and China is retaliating with a trade war against USA for now starting with GM as its first target.

THAAD won't be installed in SK!

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/south-korea-former-opposition-leader-moon-says-run-064359656.html

As predicted in our previous post, SK will not install THAAD to antagonise China.

Singapore stock calls for 15 December 2016


Fed hiked interest rate. So what happens next?

FED benchmark interest rate has been increased to 0.5 to 0.75% and is projected to go up 3 times each year till 2019.

3 interest rates in 2017, 2018 & 2019 by dot plots
0.5 to 0.75 in dec 2016 (risk-free rate hovers 2.5 to 2.6%)
1.25 to 1.5 in 2017
2 to 2.25 in 2018 
2.75 to 3 in 2019
risk-free rate will be at least 5.25% in 2019

Fed median interest rate projections:


As expected, fed hiked by 0.25% in De 2016 but made a slightly hawkish statement about further interest rate hikes.


If FED really hikes 3x interest rates each year, we'll be having high interest rates in the future as predicted in our previous post.




Wednesday, December 14, 2016

Japanese nuke food!

Japanese nuke food contains caesium 137 and 134 because of the nuclear reactor meltdown.

137 has a half-life of about 30 years and 134 is about 2 years.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caesium-137

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isotopes_of_caesium#Caesium-134

Basically, this means that 137 will decay by half in 30 years and 134 in 2 years.  Therefore, 137 takes 60 years to completely disappear and 134 takes 4 years.  The shorter the half-life, the less harmful it is to your body and environment.

These radiations will permeate your body and destroy your DNA structures.  This is how harmful nuke food is to your body.

Singapore stock calls for 14 December 2016


Singaporeans are apathetic about our political situation.

Yes, we will be building the HSR with Malaysia.  However, we are only aware of the total distance and total cost of connecting from KL to SG.  What we do not know is how many KMs is under SG liability and how much we are paying for the distance under our liability.   Our citizens do not bother to know and do not ask our government about this.

Geographically and ideally, we should be only paying for a small portion for this KL-SG HSR because each country should be responsible for its HSR construction in its terrority.  Hopefully our government will let us know more about this HSR construction instead of just quoting the total distance and total cost.  The latest information is SG will only be responsible for 15km on our land and KL is responsible for 335km on its land.  What is the cost for this 15km on our land compared to 335km on Malaysia's land?

World trade war will begin soon if WTO doesn't grant China market economy status.

When WTO signed on the dotted line to grant China market economy status automatically without any string attached after 15 years upon joining WTO, WTO must honour its contract or else it will become untrustworthy internationally.  Who else will trust EU, USA and Japan in the future?