http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/us-intelligence-chiefs-stand-firm-on-russia-findings/3417456.html
The US intelligence also stood firm on Iraq weapons of mass destruction and attacked Iraq without UN mandate. After so many years since the downfall of Saddem, UN and USA couldn't find any WMDs in Iraq.
USA is really good at fabricating false intel just for its own political interest.
Friday, January 6, 2017
AMKTC vs AHTC
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/avoid-premature-speculation-on-ang-mo-kio-town-council-case-workers-party-084355478.html
PAP has been harping on AHTC for a long time. It's time we harp on AMKTC now! Which is more serious? AHTC without CPIB investigation or AMKTC with CPIB investigation?
PAP has been harping on AHTC for a long time. It's time we harp on AMKTC now! Which is more serious? AHTC without CPIB investigation or AMKTC with CPIB investigation?
AI trumps humans again!
http://www.scmp.com/tech/apps-gaming/article/2059568/winning-online-go-master-revealed-be-ai-programme-deepmind
This is a significant step forward for AI. Weiqi is far more complex than international chess and the heuristic process involved in playing weiqi is far more advanced than international chess. There is no way for computer to analyse all the permutations because it exceeds the computing capacity. Instead, this advance Alphago is interpreting weiqi based on logic which is simply amazing.
In our previous posting about the new social structure, it looks more probable that the future is coming earlier than thought with the advancement of AI.
This is a significant step forward for AI. Weiqi is far more complex than international chess and the heuristic process involved in playing weiqi is far more advanced than international chess. There is no way for computer to analyse all the permutations because it exceeds the computing capacity. Instead, this advance Alphago is interpreting weiqi based on logic which is simply amazing.
In our previous posting about the new social structure, it looks more probable that the future is coming earlier than thought with the advancement of AI.
US debt is reaching 20T soon!
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/05/the-associated-press-figures-on-government-spending-and-debt.html
The day of reckoning will come and it will come down hard and harsh on USA. 20T debt is no joke and Trump will increase the debt further for USA because of fiscal spending and tax reduction.
Once the confidence in USD starts to waver, USA will collapse and bring the world down with it.
The day of reckoning will come and it will come down hard and harsh on USA. 20T debt is no joke and Trump will increase the debt further for USA because of fiscal spending and tax reduction.
Once the confidence in USD starts to waver, USA will collapse and bring the world down with it.
Thursday, January 5, 2017
Nikkei index is overbought now!
Having ascended to around 19600 in just 1 day after our recent buy call, Nikkei futures has no more oomph to go much higher and a mini correction has to take place because the market has digested all the positive news and anticipations for the foreseeable future. This is what we call "buy on rumour and sell on fact".
Let's use binomial probability to detect the change.
Let's use binomial probability to detect the change.
Current futures = 19500 (Today closing)
Expected futures = 18500
Date from 5 Jan 17 to 10 Mar 17 = 64 days
Upside deviation for past 1 month= 2.51%
Downside deviation for past 1 month = -1.32%
Risk-free rate = 2.46% as of 4 Jan 16
After inputting all these parameters, the downside probability is 54.2% vs upside probability of 45.8% which is a stark contrast to our posting 2 days ago. The stark outcome is due to changes in some parameters and is the reason for our buy call termination.
USA is trying to get back at South Korea.
USA is trying to get back at South Korea over Qualcomm fine. South Korea has to fight trade wars against China and USA now.
Wednesday, January 4, 2017
SG tanks are still impounded by HK.
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/singapore-armoured-vehicles-still-impounded-hong-kong-authorities-062118592.html
The length of impoundment will indicate how angry China is with SG for our role in supporting USA to contain China. China no longer believes in what we say but rather what we do. We can say pro-China remarks now but China won't trust SG anymore. We have to walk our talk now for China to believe in SG because China no longer treats SG as a Chinese nation. Without this chinese emotional tie, things will be tough moving forward.
The length of impoundment will indicate how angry China is with SG for our role in supporting USA to contain China. China no longer believes in what we say but rather what we do. We can say pro-China remarks now but China won't trust SG anymore. We have to walk our talk now for China to believe in SG because China no longer treats SG as a Chinese nation. Without this chinese emotional tie, things will be tough moving forward.
South Korea ruling party is still adamant about THAAD installation.
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/korea-vows-us-missile-system-opposition-lawmakers-head-063749858.html
South Korea economy will continue to languish because of its obstinacy to side with USA. THAAD will NOT be able to defend against North Korea mobile rockets launchers which are low attitudes weapons. North Korea has more than 10,000 such rockets which the THAAD cannot defend against. Therefore, USA should stop lying about its ulterior motive of THAAD and treat everyone like idiots.
South Korea economy will continue to languish because of its obstinacy to side with USA. THAAD will NOT be able to defend against North Korea mobile rockets launchers which are low attitudes weapons. North Korea has more than 10,000 such rockets which the THAAD cannot defend against. Therefore, USA should stop lying about its ulterior motive of THAAD and treat everyone like idiots.
Tuesday, January 3, 2017
There is no turning back for Singapore anymore.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-03/china-starts-freight-train-to-london-as-xi-promotes-trade-ties
China is using land freights to replace or reduce sea freights through Singapore. Even if we were to kowtow to China, it wouldn't change anything as China had invested a huge sum of money for the one-belt-one-road economic developments.
This year will be the harbinger for more bad economic growth for Singapore because China is trying to cripple our economy for our support with USA to contain China. This is the price we will be paying and our future generations will suffer because of our mistake.
China is using land freights to replace or reduce sea freights through Singapore. Even if we were to kowtow to China, it wouldn't change anything as China had invested a huge sum of money for the one-belt-one-road economic developments.
This year will be the harbinger for more bad economic growth for Singapore because China is trying to cripple our economy for our support with USA to contain China. This is the price we will be paying and our future generations will suffer because of our mistake.
Japan stock index (Nikkei 225) has more upsides! - Part 2
Current futures = 19080 (last closing)
Expected futures = 19600
Date from 2 Jan 17 to 10 Mar 17 = 67 days
Upside deviation for Dec 2016= 1.45%
Downside deviation for Dec 2016 = -1.32%
Risk-free rate = 2.45% as of 30 December 16
As Nikkei has risen more than 1000 points from our buy call, it has shown that Nikkei has digested all the exigent circumstances like Brexit and Trump victory. Therefore, the past data will no longer have any bearing on the future and we’ll only use December 2016 for our data analysis.
After inputing all the above parameters, binomial probability for upside is 63.9% and downside is 36.1%. Therefore, if the fundamental factors like yen weaknesses and interest rate rises do not change, Nikkei will continue to rise further.
Part 1.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2016/12/japan-stock-index-nikkei-225-has-more.html
China refuses to grant South Korea air rights.
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/transport/south-korea-considers-%E2%80%9Cmeasures%E2%80%9D-as-china-blocks-charter-flights
This is expected when South Korea tried to install THAAD defence system. When you tried to hurt my country, I won't do business with you. This is a basic principle that is present everywhere.
Indonesia also does the same thing by blocking JP Morgan.
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/government-economy/indonesia-ends-jpmorgan-partnerships-on-downgrade-okezone-says
This is expected when South Korea tried to install THAAD defence system. When you tried to hurt my country, I won't do business with you. This is a basic principle that is present everywhere.
Indonesia also does the same thing by blocking JP Morgan.
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/government-economy/indonesia-ends-jpmorgan-partnerships-on-downgrade-okezone-says
Sunday, January 1, 2017
Saturday, December 31, 2016
USA has lost leadership and influence in Middle East.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-announces-ceasefire-syria-midnight-125712235.html
Russia has brokered the ceasefire pact in Syria without USA involvement. This shows that Russia has managed to prove its true mettle and influence in Middle East.
Russia has brokered the ceasefire pact in Syria without USA involvement. This shows that Russia has managed to prove its true mettle and influence in Middle East.
US rig count - 658
HOUSTON (AP) -- The number of rigs exploring for oil and natural gas in the U.S. increased by five this week to 658.
A year ago, 698 rigs were active. Depressed energy prices have curtailed exploration, although the rig count has been rebounding in recent weeks.
Houston oilfield services company Baker Hughes Inc. said Friday that 525 rigs sought oil and 132 explored for natural gas this week. One was listed as miscellaneous.
Texas gained three rigs, Oklahoma added two and New Mexico and North Dakota were up one each.
Kansas declined by one rig.
Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Louisiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming were all unchanged.
The U.S. rig count peaked at 4,530 in 1981. It bottomed out in May at 404.
Friday, December 30, 2016
Singapore first casualty in the expected economic slump.
https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/singapore-inchcape-sack-120-workers-074155097.html
If you have read our previous postings, you will know that we're less sanguine about our economic growth because of China containment for Singapore economic growth which is leading to lesser sea freight demands and diminishing port volumes.
If you have read our previous postings, you will know that we're less sanguine about our economic growth because of China containment for Singapore economic growth which is leading to lesser sea freight demands and diminishing port volumes.
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