https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-10/china-factory-prices-rising-fastest-in-5-years-adds-to-reflation?cmpid=yhoo.headline&yptr=yahoo
Inflation is coming! Please read our previous post below for more details.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2016/11/high-interest-rate-environment-is-coming.html
Tuesday, January 10, 2017
Singapore household debt is at an alarming level.
https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/household-debt-singapore-trends-causes-174221552.html
A slowdown in our economy will cause huge stresses in household debts which will greatly reduce our economy and this will become a vicious cycle. Higher interest rates are coming and will cause a slowdown in our economy. Be prepared for the worst!
A slowdown in our economy will cause huge stresses in household debts which will greatly reduce our economy and this will become a vicious cycle. Higher interest rates are coming and will cause a slowdown in our economy. Be prepared for the worst!
Monday, January 9, 2017
China warns SG after our defence minister's speech.
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/china-urges-caution-with-words-actions-on-terrex-issue/3424574.html
We should be careful about what we say if we want our tanks back as our tanks are in their premise.
We should be careful about what we say if we want our tanks back as our tanks are in their premise.
Malaysia is trying to cripple SG economy now!
http://news.asiaone.com/news/business/malaysia-build-giant-64-billion-port-carey-island
Beside China containment on SG, Malaysia is also trying to steal SG port business now! SG will have a harder time to survive in the future.
Beside China containment on SG, Malaysia is also trying to steal SG port business now! SG will have a harder time to survive in the future.
Our defence minister is an expert in international and HK laws! Wow!
http://news.asiaone.com/news/singapore/seizure-saf-armoured-vehicles-hong-kong-against-international-law-ng-eng-hen
When did our defence minister, a medical doctor, become an expert in international and HK laws. If our SG tanks en route to HK was legal, there's no basis for our tanks to be detained in HK and HK wouldn't have proclaimed that the detainment was due to improper documentation.
We're making a BIG mistake to declare that HK contravened international law and its own HK laws just to detain SG tanks especially our tanks are still being seized in HK.
When did our defence minister, a medical doctor, become an expert in international and HK laws. If our SG tanks en route to HK was legal, there's no basis for our tanks to be detained in HK and HK wouldn't have proclaimed that the detainment was due to improper documentation.
We're making a BIG mistake to declare that HK contravened international law and its own HK laws just to detain SG tanks especially our tanks are still being seized in HK.
Asia economies will be greatly affected by Taiwan and China relationship in 2017. Why?
20 Jan 2017 will be the inauguration of USA president (Trump) and if he chooses to ignore the one-china policy that the current ruling Taiwan government refuses to recognise, China will begin to impose economic sanctions against Taiwan in 2017.
If USA and Japan support and go to the aid of Taiwan, China will send its navy to surround and block international trading for Taiwan to force the ruling party to give up.
We MUST NOT underestimate the resolve of China because Taiwan is a province of China and China won't let it go at any cost. As such, USA resolution won't be as strong as China in this sense.
It doesn't matter whether China will win or lose this battle to take back Taiwan because China will keep on trying no matter what at any cost. Is USA ready to take on China for the numerous attempts that China is resolved to undertake?
Not to forget 1.4b China people will support its China government to retake Taiwan as they also recognise that Taiwan is part of China. Good luck to Asia in 2017!
If USA and Japan support and go to the aid of Taiwan, China will send its navy to surround and block international trading for Taiwan to force the ruling party to give up.
We MUST NOT underestimate the resolve of China because Taiwan is a province of China and China won't let it go at any cost. As such, USA resolution won't be as strong as China in this sense.
It doesn't matter whether China will win or lose this battle to take back Taiwan because China will keep on trying no matter what at any cost. Is USA ready to take on China for the numerous attempts that China is resolved to undertake?
Not to forget 1.4b China people will support its China government to retake Taiwan as they also recognise that Taiwan is part of China. Good luck to Asia in 2017!
Saturday, January 7, 2017
Trade war may go into full mode this year.
http://en.people.cn/n3/2017/0107/c90000-9163956.html
All bets are off if trade war enters into full mode and the world economies will suffer. Let's hope this won't happen as SG will suffer tremendously when international trades diminish.
All bets are off if trade war enters into full mode and the world economies will suffer. Let's hope this won't happen as SG will suffer tremendously when international trades diminish.
Tension rising in EU.
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/us-tanks-roll-germany-bolster-nato-deterrent-125446262.html
I don't know who is provocating who in this article when Europe is building up military strength against Russia and USA is involved again. Look like US presence always brings tension and war just like in South China Sea and Middle East. The world is definitely a better place without USA.
I don't know who is provocating who in this article when Europe is building up military strength against Russia and USA is involved again. Look like US presence always brings tension and war just like in South China Sea and Middle East. The world is definitely a better place without USA.
Baltic dry index - 983
Today, Thursday, January O5 2017, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 14 points, reaching 983 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
US rig count - 665
HOUSTON (AP) — The number of rigs exploring for oil and natural gas in the U.S. increased by seven this week to 665.
A year ago, 664 rigs were active. Depressed energy prices have curtailed exploration, although the rig count has been rebounding in recent weeks.
Houston oilfield services company Baker Hughes Inc. said Friday that 529 rigs sought oil and 135 explored for natural gas this week. One was listed as miscellaneous.
New Mexico and Texas each gained three rigs, Louisiana added two and Colorado, Ohio and Pennsylvania each added one.
Wyoming declined by two rigs and Alaska lost one.
Arkansas, California, Kansas, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Utah and West Virginia were all unchanged.
The U.S. rig count peaked at 4,530 in 1981. It bottomed out in May at 404.
Friday, January 6, 2017
Let's stop harping on South China Sea for the new year as world economies won't be good.
USA is good at fabricating false intelligence and also is a great storyteller.
No shippers want to sail through Spratly islands. As such, there is no point to promote freedom of navigation for Spratly islands. It's pretty obvious that the USA has ulterior motive by sailing through Spratly islands in the name of FON and we are supporting USA for the wrong reason.
USA interfered in South China Sea (SCS) in the name of freedom of navigation (FON). Let's check out the facts. USA endorsed China's claims on SCS at the end of WW2 because it sent USA naval vessels to accompany China to retake the islands. Thus, China has been proclaiming the SCS rights for the past 70 years already.
Is there really a concern for freedom of navigation. There is not a single case of commercial liners being stopped by China in SCS over 70 years. Furthermore, commercial liners do not want to sail through Spratly islands because of the treacherous terrain like reefs and rocks. Please see the commercial sea routes for SCS below.
No shippers want to sail through Spratly islands. As such, there is no point to promote freedom of navigation for Spratly islands. It's pretty obvious that the USA has ulterior motive by sailing through Spratly islands in the name of FON and we are supporting USA for the wrong reason.
US intelligence stands firm on Russia finding
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/us-intelligence-chiefs-stand-firm-on-russia-findings/3417456.html
The US intelligence also stood firm on Iraq weapons of mass destruction and attacked Iraq without UN mandate. After so many years since the downfall of Saddem, UN and USA couldn't find any WMDs in Iraq.
USA is really good at fabricating false intel just for its own political interest.
The US intelligence also stood firm on Iraq weapons of mass destruction and attacked Iraq without UN mandate. After so many years since the downfall of Saddem, UN and USA couldn't find any WMDs in Iraq.
USA is really good at fabricating false intel just for its own political interest.
AMKTC vs AHTC
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/avoid-premature-speculation-on-ang-mo-kio-town-council-case-workers-party-084355478.html
PAP has been harping on AHTC for a long time. It's time we harp on AMKTC now! Which is more serious? AHTC without CPIB investigation or AMKTC with CPIB investigation?
PAP has been harping on AHTC for a long time. It's time we harp on AMKTC now! Which is more serious? AHTC without CPIB investigation or AMKTC with CPIB investigation?
AI trumps humans again!
http://www.scmp.com/tech/apps-gaming/article/2059568/winning-online-go-master-revealed-be-ai-programme-deepmind
This is a significant step forward for AI. Weiqi is far more complex than international chess and the heuristic process involved in playing weiqi is far more advanced than international chess. There is no way for computer to analyse all the permutations because it exceeds the computing capacity. Instead, this advance Alphago is interpreting weiqi based on logic which is simply amazing.
In our previous posting about the new social structure, it looks more probable that the future is coming earlier than thought with the advancement of AI.
This is a significant step forward for AI. Weiqi is far more complex than international chess and the heuristic process involved in playing weiqi is far more advanced than international chess. There is no way for computer to analyse all the permutations because it exceeds the computing capacity. Instead, this advance Alphago is interpreting weiqi based on logic which is simply amazing.
In our previous posting about the new social structure, it looks more probable that the future is coming earlier than thought with the advancement of AI.
US debt is reaching 20T soon!
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/05/the-associated-press-figures-on-government-spending-and-debt.html
The day of reckoning will come and it will come down hard and harsh on USA. 20T debt is no joke and Trump will increase the debt further for USA because of fiscal spending and tax reduction.
Once the confidence in USD starts to waver, USA will collapse and bring the world down with it.
The day of reckoning will come and it will come down hard and harsh on USA. 20T debt is no joke and Trump will increase the debt further for USA because of fiscal spending and tax reduction.
Once the confidence in USD starts to waver, USA will collapse and bring the world down with it.
Thursday, January 5, 2017
Nikkei index is overbought now!
Having ascended to around 19600 in just 1 day after our recent buy call, Nikkei futures has no more oomph to go much higher and a mini correction has to take place because the market has digested all the positive news and anticipations for the foreseeable future. This is what we call "buy on rumour and sell on fact".
Let's use binomial probability to detect the change.
Let's use binomial probability to detect the change.
Current futures = 19500 (Today closing)
Expected futures = 18500
Date from 5 Jan 17 to 10 Mar 17 = 64 days
Upside deviation for past 1 month= 2.51%
Downside deviation for past 1 month = -1.32%
Risk-free rate = 2.46% as of 4 Jan 16
After inputting all these parameters, the downside probability is 54.2% vs upside probability of 45.8% which is a stark contrast to our posting 2 days ago. The stark outcome is due to changes in some parameters and is the reason for our buy call termination.
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