Empty shopping malls are springing up in USA! The real economy is not doing well.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-07/third-all-shopping-malls-are-projected-close-space-available-signs-go-all-over-ameri

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-24/malls

The real economy in USA is not doing as well as projected on wall street.  QE only helps to propel wall street but not main street.  Empty shopping malls have started to spring up in USA which depicts the real economic situation. Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) have also started to default significantly and commercial reits' prices have fallen.  Mortgage-backed Securities (MBS) are worse than 2008 (lehman bros' collapse) now and will explode anytime in USA.  If China investors pull out of USA commercial properties, it will have a huge ripple effect that will cripple USA economy.  This recession will be worse than in 2008.

FED has hiked interest rate in march and 2 more hikes are expected in 2017.

The market reacted positively because of FED dovish statement of gradual pace of tightening in its future actions.  Some were anticipating 4 hikes this year but FED only wanted 3 hikes instead which was a relief for the market.  Furthermore, there may be some headwinds which will affect the economy like Trump's policies, North Korea, EU, etc.  Therefore, FED is having a wait-and-see attitude and will play by ear to determine its interest rate policy.

More financial experts are predicting a correction or crash for Dow Jones!

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/15/trader-talk-are-you-ready-for-a-2000-point-drop-in-the-dow.html?__source=yahoo%7Cfinance%7Cheadline%7Cheadline%7Cstory&par=yahoo&doc=104341874&yptr=yahoo

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crash-guru-warns-the-dow-could-plunge-to-14800-and-todays-a-date-to-watch-2017-03-13

One said dow jones would drop 2,000 and another said dow jones would fall to 14,800 level.  Look like the clairvoyants are in synchronization for once.  They had a common consensus on the direction or trajectory of dow jones but not on the magnitude of the fall.

Singapore stock calls for 15 March 2017

Swiber defaults on its bond for 20 March 2017.

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/swiber-defaults-on-its-bond-coupon-payout-due-on-march-20

If swiber cannot even pay for this bond coupon, we can expect swiber to default on its DBS loan too.  Look like DBS has more to write down for Swiber.

MAS warning: Do not trade in binary options

http://news.asiaone.com/news/business/mas-dont-trade-binary-options-unregulated-platforms

Only trade in those derivatives by brokerages registered with MAS in Singapore.  Skip those who are registered in overseas no matter how low is the brokerage fee.

Huat ah! Great news for Singapore!

http://news.asiaone.com/news/business/economists-upgrade-singapores-2017-growth-forecast-15-23

I hope that our government won't revise down the GDP growth forecast in the next quarter.  I rather have no hope than to have a false hope.

UFO landed in China.

No wonder China's technology is getting more and more high-tech.

Singapore stock calls for 14 March 2017

Chile has invited China to join TPP.

http://gbtimes.com/business/china-considers-joining-tpp-meeting-chile

Without USA, Japan will be the biggest economy in TPP and this gives Japan a lot of bargaining power.  However, Chile has invited China to join TPP which will make China the largest economy in TPP and assume the leadership position.

If Japan makes things difficult for China to join TPP, China will not join TPP and focus on RCEP since it is leading RCEP.

Let's see how this will pan out.

China has hinted that it will continue to cut down its foreign reserves.

http://en.people.cn/n3/2017/0313/c90000-9189685.html

China will be selling more USD down the road.

China citizens are boycotting South Korea.

http://koreabizwire.com/thousands-of-chinese-cruise-passengers-refuse-to-disembark-in-jeju-amid-diplomatic-woes/77256

China cruise passengers refused to disembark in South Korea.  Anti-sentiment has spread across Chinese citizens and they're not afraid to show it publicly.

Singapore stock calls for 13 March 2017

It's getting harder to save Ezra.

http://news.asiaone.com/news/business/latest-claim-ezra-raises-more-concerns

DBS will be hurt more than OCBC when Ezra goes bankrupt.  DBS has not factored in the reality of Ezra's bankruptcy.

Trade war between 2 titans (China & USA) is never good.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/china-says-trade-war-only-bring-pain-112926544.html

USA knows it won't win the trade war against China.  Therefore, it is trying all avenues and prodding all weaknesses in China.

http://en.people.cn/n3/2017/0217/c90000-9179472.html

USA steel industry couldn't handle competition, so it tried to accuse China of stealing trade secrets with fabricated facts which the USA government always did especially for Iraq war (no weapon of mass destruction found until today).  After realising that this won't work, the USA steel industry withdrew its allegation and move on to anti-trust allegation.

If China did steal trade secrets from USA steel industry, USA won't back down at all.

What can Singapore learn from South Korea?

It is an extremely difficult and delicate balance to saunter the relationships between USA and China especially when these 2 titans are at odds with each other.  Let’s look at the horrendous outcome for South Korea as our learning lesson for the future.

Synopsis:

South Korea tried to improve its economy by getting cozy with China with the intention to get favourable FTA from China but this economic motive angered USA especially when President Park visited China.  In return, USA demanded South Korea to install THAAD to contain China in the name of self-defence against North Korea.  South Korea was able to resist the USA pressure initially but cowered in because USA managed to get a handle on South Korea.  In the end, South Korea was forced to install THAAD to pacify USA.  However, the THAAD installation made China very furious and China retaliated with its economic prowess in staggered stages instead of full force with the hope of dissuading South Korea.  Thereafter, South Korea president ended up being impeached.

The lesson learnt is we cannot follow South Korea’s footstep to get economic benefit from China and yet help USA to contain China.  Nobody likes a snitch or a double-headed snake.  China has shown the world blatantly that it won’t allow itself to be treated like that either.

China has deployed its long phased array radar to monitor South Korea.

China existing long phased array radar has a range of 3000km and its newest one is capable of 5500km range.  China has deployed an existing long phased array radar with 3000km to monitor SK and Japan.

Picture of phased array radar

This kind of radar is capable of tracking multiple objects as small as a golf ball and is also able to jam other radar.

http://www.matthewaid.com/post/87975623676/china-may-be-jamming-new-long-range-surveillance

China new shipping routes will bypass Singapore.

http://en.people.cn/n3/2017/0310/c90000-9188766.html

China shippers won't be using Singapore as a transition hub even before the operation of Malacca new port.  No wonder our port handling volume is declining.

Baltic dry index - 1086

Today, Friday, March 10 2017, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 22 points, reaching 1086 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

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Related stocks: Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

US rig count - 768

The number of rigs exploring for oil and natural gas in the U.S. increased by 12 this week to 768.

A year ago, 480 rigs were active.

Houston oilfield services company Baker Hughes Inc. said Friday that 617 rigs sought oil and 151 explored for natural gas this week.

Louisiana increased by five rigs, Colorado and Oklahoma each were up three, Ohio and Wyoming rose by two and California gained one.

Alaska declined by three and New Mexico dropped one.

Arkansas, Kansas, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Texas, Utah and West Virginia were all unchanged.

The U.S. rig count peaked at 4,530 in 1981. It bottomed out last May at 404.

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Related stocks: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.