Baltic dry index - 957

Today, Thursday, May 18 2017, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 3 points, reaching 957 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

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Related stocks: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan Ocean.

US rig count - 901

The number of rigs exploring for oil and natural gas in the U.S. rose by 16 this week to 901.

A year ago, 404 rigs were active.

Houston oilfield services company Baker Hughes said Friday that 720 rigs sought oil and 180 explored for natural gas this week. One was listed as miscellaneous.

Texas added eight rigs and Oklahoma gained four. Louisiana, Pennsylvania and Wyoming each gained two, while New Mexico and Ohio each added one.

Colorado declined by two rigs and Alaska lost one.

Arkansas, California, Kansas, North Dakota, Utah and West Virginia were unchanged.

The U.S. rig count peaked at 4,530 in 1981. It bottomed out last May at 404.

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Related stocks: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

Vietnam is not afraid to offend Taiwan but Singapore just doesn't get it.

Vietnam has been at loggerheads with China for territorial claims but Vietnam knows which side to support for its own economic benefits.

Vietnam is not afraid to offend Taiwan for China to see.

Vietnam fined Formosa for USD$500m.
http://asia.nikkei.com/Business/AC/Formosa-Plastics-fined-500m-over-toxic-waste-in-Vietnam

Vietnam clearly spelt out its one China policy.
http://en.nhandan.com.vn/politics/item/4939802-vietnam-china-issues-joint-communique.html

"The Vietnamese side affirmed to consistently pursue the one-China policy, support the peaceful development of Cross-Strait relations and China’s great cause of unification, and resolutely oppose actions for an “independent Taiwan” in any form. Vietnam does not develop any official ties with Taiwan. The Chinese side welcomes Vietnam’s stance."

What does China give to Vietnam in return?

China involves Vietnam deeply in its grandeur one-belt-one-road initiatives and helps Vietnam to get the financing it badly needs.

Project financing and railway construction.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-05/15/c_136286256.htm

However, China isolates SG from its one-belt-one-road initiatives because we don't spell out our one-China policy clearly and we help USA to contain China.  The devious Taiwan president even tried to use SG as a pawn against China.  Therefore, we should also use Taiwan as our leverage to get more economic benefits from China but Singapore just doesn't get it.

Bad news! China has isolated Singapore from its one-belt-one-road initiatives.

http://www.scmp.com/week-asia/geopolitics/article/2094781/what-belt-and-road-snub-means-singapores-ties-china

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-05-18/singapore-out-in-the-cold-as-southeast-asia-chases-china-cash

China snubbed SG and SG didn't manage to sign any deal with China for the one-belt-one-road initiatives while our neighbour, Malaysia, signed some deals with China during the summit.

http://en.people.cn/n3/2017/0514/c90000-9215022.html

There's also a rumour that SG proposed to engage Japan as the HSR main contractor but Malaysia rejected the notion because it preferred to engage China as HSR main contractor.

Singapore risks being ostracised in ASEAN now because other ASEAN members will have a common topic for discussion (one-belt-one-road) while Singapore will be left in the lurch.

Furthermore, SG couldn't get the EU-SG FTA endorsed by EU.  Sigh!

Fearmongering by USA for China's debts.

I really find this weird.  It seems to me that it's alright for USA to have high debts but not for China.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/chanos-says-more-stresses-apparent-043117903.html

USA household debts have reached USD$12.73b and the USA national debt is at USD$19.84t but all these debts won't hurt USA banks at all.  However, China's debts will hurt Chinese banks.  USA national debt of USD$19.84t is larger than China's GDP of USD$11t and it is able to accumulate such high debt because of USD reserve status.

Once this USD confidence is undermined, USA will go bankrupt and people around the world will lose confidence in USA banks too because nobody wants USD anymore.

Singapore stock calls for 19 May 2017

Wow! TB is not contagious now! Great news!

http://statestimesreview.com/2017/05/17/39-pre-school-children-infected-with-tb-minister-tan-chuan-jin-may-be-responsible/

Our minister stated that TB was not contagious!  Maybe he meant only SG TB was not contagious.

Wow! TB must have evolved into a new strain in SG that is no longer contagious.  That's really a great news for Singaporeans.

Singapore stock calls for 18 May 2017

Noble Group needs USD$2b for its survival. Let's see which bank(s) will loan to noble.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/noble-group-lifeline-depends-bank-041457093.html

Commodity prices won't recover in the short time and the commodities markets will still be in the doldrum because China is reducing its commodities demands.

If Noble cannot get this USD$2b loan, it will be in serious trouble.  This will be like those oil&gas companies going bankrupt.  USD$2b is not a small sum and Noble won't get this from a single bank but from multiple banks if these banks still have confidence in Noble's repayment abilities.

As Noble is currently generating negative cash flows, I would say that the banks have little confidence in Noble.

Singapore stock calls for 17 May 2017

The fight for KL-SG HSR is not over yet.

The Malaysian government awarded the KL-SG HSR to 3 consortiums which have limited knowledge and experience in building the HSR and excluded China from the HSR project bidding.  This exclusion angered China and China withdrew from the Bandar Malaysia deal.

I believe China will be able to win the HSR main construction deal because Malaysia has repented and learnt from its mistake.  Malaysia government has also signed some deals during the one-belt-one-road summit and made some promises to the China government too.

Let's see how this will pan out.

http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/economy/article/2094370/hong-kongs-mtr-corp-plans-joint-bid-mainland-rail-giant-build

http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2017/05/malaysia-is-first-to-regret-for.html

Fearmongering by USA again.

https://au.news.yahoo.com/world/a/35539728/north-korea-poses-threat-to-china-russia-us-admiral/#page1

If North Korea is really a threat to China and Russia, they won't just sit by without taking further action.  China and Russia have very good radars to defend themselves.  Therefore, there is no need for USA to remind China and Russia that NK is a threat to them.

Singapore non-oil domestic exports (NODX) - Part 2

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/16/singapores-trade-data-contract-in-april-snapping-growth-streak.html?__source=yahoo%7Cfinance%7Cheadline%7Cheadline%7Cstory&par=yahoo&doc=104474225&yptr=yahoo

Singapore NODX is declining in April 2017 significantly.

Year on year changes denote marginal diminishing growth.

Apr 2017: -0.7%
Mar 2017: 16.5%
Feb 2017: 21.1%
Jan 2017: 8.6%
Dec 2016: 9.1%
Nov 2016: 15.6%

http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2017/02/singapore-non-oil-domestic-exports-nodx.html

OMG! GIC made a huge investment loss in UBS!

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/singapore-sovereign-fund-gic-pares-ubs-stake-loss-012021119--sector.html

Our GIC has to console itself by indulging in self-deception with the inclusion of investment gains from Citibank so that its investment record won't look so bad.

Sigh!

Singapore stock calls for 16 May 2017

Europe-Singapore FTA has suffered a setback!

http://www.euractiv.com/section/economy-jobs/news/singapore-trade-deal-cannot-be-concluded-by-eu-alone-ecj-rules/

This will just drag on for a long time as this FTA requires all EU countries to ratify.  Some EU countries are very slow to endorse FTA.  This definitely doesn't bode well for SG.

Sino-Europe freight train business is flourishing.

http://en.people.cn/n3/2017/0514/c90000-9215085.html

The frequency of the Sino-Europe railway will definitely increase as the trading of goods increases.  Therefore, the new longer sea freight between SG & China looks dodgy.

Wow! China will be developing more advanced artificial intelligence.

http://en.people.cn/n3/2017/0514/c90000-9215395.html

A brain-like AI is definitely more advanced than any other current AIs which are just using retrospective algorithms.

Hopefully, this brain-link AI will be our saviour for mankind survival because the world will end in 100 years time.

Singapore stock calls for 15 May 2017

China slowdown is a bane for the world.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/chinas-economy-shows-signs-slowing-april-024807973.html

China contributes 1/3 of global growth and its slowdown will reverberate around the globe causing a global downturn as well.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2017/04/china-1st-quarter-gdp-growth-is-69.html