Singapore first invited China to participate in our KL-HSR tender in June 2017 by our FM Vivian but China ignored our invitation.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2017/06/singapore-had-repented-and-invited.html
Then, our PM Lee invited China again in September 2017 during his China visit. However, China has not responded to our invitation again.
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2017-09/20/content_32229112.htm
Why?
Well, China is considering whether to give face or political credit to SG for allowing China to participate in the KL-HSR. Why am I saying this? This is because China is a strategic thinker and has a strategic tactic to undertake the KL-SG HSR without going through SG. Therefore, it will only take part in the project under Singapore invitation out of good faith or when it wants to give political credit to SG.
If you understand the BRI, you will know that China gives preferential treatment to Laos which is an inland country without any port. China is helping Laos by turning it into a land transhipment hub where goods and people are transported to its neighbouring countries by railways and HSRs. Therefore, Laos will adopt China HSR system in reciprocation.
http://shanghaiist.com/2017/07/12/thailand-china-railway-approved.php
http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2017/09/china-won-hsr-construction-deal-in.html
What about the BKK-KL HSR?
Thailand had given the internal HSR (BKK-Chiang Mai) to Japan because Japan gave a lot of concessions to Thailand. Meanwhile, the cross-border HSRs from BKK to China and Laos were given to China. Thailand has to maintain 2 different HSR systems now instead of one.
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/rail-diplomacy-puts-grand-plans-for-thailand-s-railway-on-track-8591784
Malaysia had indicated its preference for China HSR system for the cross-border BKK-KL HSR. Will Thailand adopt a 3rd HSR system for this BKK-KL HSR? I don't think so because it is expensive and difficult to maintain 3 different HSR systems. Therefore, Thai is likely to adopt the China HSR system as requested by Malaysia.
http://www.todayonline.com/world/asia/thailand-malaysia-begin-talks-hsr-linking-bangkok-and-kuala-lumpur-thai-minister
When the BKK-KL HSR system is adopting the China HSR system, Malaysia will also want to adopt the same system for the KL-SG HSR because it's easier and cheaper to maintain 1 HSR system instead of 2. Therefore, it is likely that Malaysia will impose the China HSR system on KL-SG HSR unless SG gives a lot of concessions to Malaysia to adopt a different HSR system. SG is at the losing end because it is at the end of the HSR and is only responsible for the 15km HSR system on its own land.
Malaysia can insist on building the HSR from KL to JB using the China HSR system and leave SG out of it under the worst case scenario because SG cannot have a say on Malaysia land. Malaysia will just let SG decide on its own HSR because Malaysia also cannot have a say on Singapore land.
This is the reason for China to be blase about our invitation as China has a strategic tactic to undertake the KL-SG project without going through SG. SG is only responsible for 15km of the HSR on its own land and is making a lot of noise about the HSR but Malaysia is so quiet about the HSR when it is undertaking 335km of the HSR. Let's see whether China will give face to SG and participate in the HSR project under our invitation out of good faith.
Friday, September 22, 2017
Iphone 8 sales launch is disappointing.
http://www.asiaone.com/digital/apples-iphone-8-sees-muted-launch-asia
This will definitely hit Apple's suppliers and manufacturers. Watch out the stock performances of those companies involved in the Apple's chain.
This will definitely hit Apple's suppliers and manufacturers. Watch out the stock performances of those companies involved in the Apple's chain.
OMG! HP is retrenching again.
https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/hewlett-packard-enterprise-reportedly-cutting-234601321.html
Many countries are reporting good economic growth but companies are retrenching......Why? Why? Why?
This shows that we're not having real economic growth at all.
Many countries are reporting good economic growth but companies are retrenching......Why? Why? Why?
This shows that we're not having real economic growth at all.
OMG! SPH is trenching!
https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/singapore-press-holdings-said-consider-job-cuts-reorganization-plan-113721110.html
SPH monopolizes the Singapore media industry and cannot even survive because of technological changes.
This is what happens when you rest on your laurels thinking that your monopoly will protect your business. Alas! Time has changed.
SPH monopolizes the Singapore media industry and cannot even survive because of technological changes.
This is what happens when you rest on your laurels thinking that your monopoly will protect your business. Alas! Time has changed.
Thursday, September 21, 2017
Why did PM Lee go to China in September 2017?
PM Lee had requested for the new sea-rail link developments between China & SG in this Sino-SG meeting.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2017/05/new-sea-rail-link-between-china-and.html
We reported this new sea-rail link before.
PM Lee had also promised to promote China-ASEAN relationship in 2018 when it's the chairman and invited China to participate in the KL-SG HSR.
Basically, this trip is to appease and pacify China because PM Lee realizes that he cannot rely on Trump as he is unpredictable.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2017/05/new-sea-rail-link-between-china-and.html
We reported this new sea-rail link before.
PM Lee had also promised to promote China-ASEAN relationship in 2018 when it's the chairman and invited China to participate in the KL-SG HSR.
Basically, this trip is to appease and pacify China because PM Lee realizes that he cannot rely on Trump as he is unpredictable.
Who will win the KL-SG HSR project?
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/transport/lta-forms-new-unit-to-implement-the-kl-singapore-high-speed-rail-project
China? Japan? Korea? or France?
Well, Singapore is responsible for 15km while Malaysia will build 335km of the 350km KL-SG HSR. Therefore, Malaysia will definitely have a bigger say in this joint-venture. Furthermore, Malaysia will also have to consider its KL-BKK HSR. Thus, it is in Malaysia's interest to have the same HSR system as it is easier and cheaper to maintain than to have 2 different HSR systems.
However, in Singapore context, we would like to have an open standard railway system so that we're not at the mercy of a single vendor. This difference in consideration will not sit well with the Malaysia side as Malaysia has more considerations than SG.
Recently, Thailand had awarded its cross-border Thai-Laos HSR to China.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2017/09/china-won-hsr-construction-deal-in.html
In view of this, it is likely that China will win the BKK-KL HSR too. Consequently, Malaysia will want to adopt the same HSR system for its KL-SG HSR.
China? Japan? Korea? or France?
Well, Singapore is responsible for 15km while Malaysia will build 335km of the 350km KL-SG HSR. Therefore, Malaysia will definitely have a bigger say in this joint-venture. Furthermore, Malaysia will also have to consider its KL-BKK HSR. Thus, it is in Malaysia's interest to have the same HSR system as it is easier and cheaper to maintain than to have 2 different HSR systems.
However, in Singapore context, we would like to have an open standard railway system so that we're not at the mercy of a single vendor. This difference in consideration will not sit well with the Malaysia side as Malaysia has more considerations than SG.
Recently, Thailand had awarded its cross-border Thai-Laos HSR to China.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2017/09/china-won-hsr-construction-deal-in.html
In view of this, it is likely that China will win the BKK-KL HSR too. Consequently, Malaysia will want to adopt the same HSR system for its KL-SG HSR.
US Fed maintains interest rate and will begin QE tapering in October 2017.
The US Fed has maintained its interest rate as expected but will begin its QE tapering in October 2017 with an initial US$10b monthly taper. In a nutshell, this means FED will not reinvest US$10b from its bond proceeds when the bonds mature and this will gradually increase to US$50b per month.
QE tapering will only affect long-term rates because these bonds and MBS maturity periods are long while the FED rate hikes will affect short-term rates like overnight bank rate, loan rate, etc. The FED is expected to hike rate in December 2017 and 3x in 2018.
All in all, rates are definitely rising in the future.
QE tapering will only affect long-term rates because these bonds and MBS maturity periods are long while the FED rate hikes will affect short-term rates like overnight bank rate, loan rate, etc. The FED is expected to hike rate in December 2017 and 3x in 2018.
All in all, rates are definitely rising in the future.
South Korea and China trade war has intensified.
http://english.etnews.com/20170919200001
South Korea has decided to halt its semiconductor and display manufacturer from setting up factories in China in retaliation. However, this move will hurt its Korean businesses.
Why?
China has already produced its own Kirin 970 AI chip which will be used on China-made mobile phones and Sharp is going to produce 8K display panels in China Foxconn factory. Furthermore, TSMC is also producing its A11 chips in China too. Therefore, I don't see any technology transfer from SK to China. Instead, SK manufacturers will lose their competitive edges when they don't set up their factories in China because it will take a longer time to deliver their products to China consumers. The production cost will also be higher when they don't set up factories in China.
Good luck to SK as SK is slowly killing its own businesses.
South Korea has decided to halt its semiconductor and display manufacturer from setting up factories in China in retaliation. However, this move will hurt its Korean businesses.
Why?
China has already produced its own Kirin 970 AI chip which will be used on China-made mobile phones and Sharp is going to produce 8K display panels in China Foxconn factory. Furthermore, TSMC is also producing its A11 chips in China too. Therefore, I don't see any technology transfer from SK to China. Instead, SK manufacturers will lose their competitive edges when they don't set up their factories in China because it will take a longer time to deliver their products to China consumers. The production cost will also be higher when they don't set up factories in China.
Good luck to SK as SK is slowly killing its own businesses.
Russia and China snub Trump's speech on UN reform.
https://www.thenational.ae/world/the-americas/russia-and-china-snub-trump-guterres-meeting-on-un-reform-1.629753
It's difficult to pass any motion without China & Russia approvals as these 2 are permanent members and have veto powers.
The absence of China & Russia showed that the USA would face tremendous difficulties in UN.
It's difficult to pass any motion without China & Russia approvals as these 2 are permanent members and have veto powers.
The absence of China & Russia showed that the USA would face tremendous difficulties in UN.
Wednesday, September 20, 2017
How do you know Sino-SG relationship is going well?
Well, when SG allows China naval vessels and subs to berth at our port, it shows that Sino-SG relationship is going well.
Just look at Malaysia. PM Najib was in USA but China sub was berthing at Malaysia port.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-malaysia-southchinasea/chinese-sub-docks-at-malaysian-port-for-second-time-this-year-idUSKCN1BO17P
Just look at Malaysia. PM Najib was in USA but China sub was berthing at Malaysia port.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-malaysia-southchinasea/chinese-sub-docks-at-malaysian-port-for-second-time-this-year-idUSKCN1BO17P
Trump's speech at UN received some heavy criticism.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-41327130
Swedish FM remark was a direct slap at Trump - Wrong speech, wrong time & wrong audience! In other words, Swedish FM was saying Trump was spewing nonsense at the UN summit.
Trump had made a mockery of himself in the world with this speech. His speech is more likely to create ramification than to garner good unison.
China has also expressed a peaceful resolution on the NK issue which is an exact opposite of what Trump is doing. Trump is trying to set the motion of war against NK but he is doomed to fail.
http://en.people.cn/n3/2017/0920/c90000-9271375.html
Swedish FM remark was a direct slap at Trump - Wrong speech, wrong time & wrong audience! In other words, Swedish FM was saying Trump was spewing nonsense at the UN summit.
Trump had made a mockery of himself in the world with this speech. His speech is more likely to create ramification than to garner good unison.
China has also expressed a peaceful resolution on the NK issue which is an exact opposite of what Trump is doing. Trump is trying to set the motion of war against NK but he is doomed to fail.
http://en.people.cn/n3/2017/0920/c90000-9271375.html
Blah Blah Blah! That's what Trump is good at but nothing gets done.
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/donald-trump-expected-rebuke-states-114254280.html
NATO is the essence of Trump's speech. This NATO is No Action, Talk Only.
There is no way for Trump to destroy NK totally without China & Russia approvals. This is a fact and China & Russia have veto powers in UN. NK is not Iraq whereby the USA can attack NK unilaterally. China & Russia won't allow it.
NATO is the essence of Trump's speech. This NATO is No Action, Talk Only.
There is no way for Trump to destroy NK totally without China & Russia approvals. This is a fact and China & Russia have veto powers in UN. NK is not Iraq whereby the USA can attack NK unilaterally. China & Russia won't allow it.
Tuesday, September 19, 2017
Hot news! USA and Taiwan are in cahoots to topple the Cambodian government.
http://www.phnompenhpost.com/national/hun-sen-hits-us-foreign-policy
This is the usual mode of operandi whenever the local government is not the USA ally. The USA knew that Hun was wary of USA operatives in Cambodia. Therefore, the USA asked Taiwan to do this on behalf of the USA. However, the Taiwan businessmen were taken aback by the Cambodian media outburst.
The Taiwan businessmen were so afraid of being implicated in this matter that they published in the mainstream newspaper for 3 days that they were not involved in this "regime change".
In the end, the Taiwan government was forced to come forth to deny any involvement in toppling the Cambodian government.
http://focustaiwan.tw/news/aipl/201709190008.aspx
Cambodian Hun was just issuing a subtle warning to Taiwan through the media not to help the USA to topple the government and nobody was arrested in this episode. Hun would have arrested those involved in the "regime change" if he didn't want to give Taiwan a chance to back off. Hun was willing to give Taiwan a chance because he recognised the one-China policy. Let's not forget Hun was a hard-handed man in the past.
This is the usual mode of operandi whenever the local government is not the USA ally. The USA knew that Hun was wary of USA operatives in Cambodia. Therefore, the USA asked Taiwan to do this on behalf of the USA. However, the Taiwan businessmen were taken aback by the Cambodian media outburst.
The Taiwan businessmen were so afraid of being implicated in this matter that they published in the mainstream newspaper for 3 days that they were not involved in this "regime change".
In the end, the Taiwan government was forced to come forth to deny any involvement in toppling the Cambodian government.
http://focustaiwan.tw/news/aipl/201709190008.aspx
Cambodian Hun was just issuing a subtle warning to Taiwan through the media not to help the USA to topple the government and nobody was arrested in this episode. Hun would have arrested those involved in the "regime change" if he didn't want to give Taiwan a chance to back off. Hun was willing to give Taiwan a chance because he recognised the one-China policy. Let's not forget Hun was a hard-handed man in the past.
USA embassy in Cuba was under sonic weapon attack recently.
http://www.foxnews.com/science/2017/09/18/scientists-still-baffled-by-mysterious-sonic-weapon-attack-on-us-embassy-in-cuba.html
USA embassy will be closed in Cuba for its personnel health protection. The USA is certain that its embassy in Cuba is under some kind of sonic weapon attack but it cannot determine the source and frequency.
21 personnel have been confirmed to be injured by this sonic attack.
USA embassy will be closed in Cuba for its personnel health protection. The USA is certain that its embassy in Cuba is under some kind of sonic weapon attack but it cannot determine the source and frequency.
21 personnel have been confirmed to be injured by this sonic attack.
The real threat to global trade!
http://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/2111759/trumps-trade-chief-says-china-threat-global-trading
The USA is back again with a smearing campaign against China by labelling China as an unprecedented threat. However, the real threat to the global trade is the USA because of its protectionism and anti-globalization policies. The USA even tries to supersede WTO rules with its own 301 trade law.
Just look at how Germany & BRICS condemned the USA.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world-0/us-politics/merkel-trump-attack-foreign-policy-winners-losers-a7825161.html
http://thehill.com/policy/international/340646-merkel-hits-us-policy-ahead-of-g20-summit
http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2017-06/20/content_29808940.htm
A research showed that anti-globalization was the no.1 threat facing Asia Pacific but the USA wanted to mislead the world by embarking on a smearing campaign.
http://www.asiaone.com/business/anti-globalisation-no-1-threat-facing-asia-pacific-report
The USA is back again with a smearing campaign against China by labelling China as an unprecedented threat. However, the real threat to the global trade is the USA because of its protectionism and anti-globalization policies. The USA even tries to supersede WTO rules with its own 301 trade law.
Just look at how Germany & BRICS condemned the USA.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world-0/us-politics/merkel-trump-attack-foreign-policy-winners-losers-a7825161.html
http://thehill.com/policy/international/340646-merkel-hits-us-policy-ahead-of-g20-summit
http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2017-06/20/content_29808940.htm
A research showed that anti-globalization was the no.1 threat facing Asia Pacific but the USA wanted to mislead the world by embarking on a smearing campaign.
http://www.asiaone.com/business/anti-globalisation-no-1-threat-facing-asia-pacific-report
China President Xi Jinping will be having a final showdown with Jiang Zemin soon.
The most corrupted person, Yang XiuZhu, was on a run for 13 years before she requested in the USA to return to China to face trial. This was something puzzling and uncanny because she would be facing a death sentence in China under the corruption and bribery charges.
She was in custody for a long time before she was given a trial recently. Why did she request to face trial in China after being on the run for 13 years? We'll come to this in a moment.
Meanwhile, President Xi had just completed his military revamp recently by replacing all the top honchos including the chief of general staff. President Xi had managed to replace all the Jiang's henchmen in the military. Therefore, he has total control of the military now and he can have a final showdown with Jiang Zemin. Jiang is currently under house arrest in China.
The withholdment of Yang's sentence was bewildering because it was a corruption case proven beyond reasonable doubt. It was speculated that Yang was willing to return to China to face trial because President Xi promised to pardon her death sentence in exchange for her to become a tainted witness to testify against Jiang Zemin. We also believe this to be true because nobody would be so foolish to return to face a death sentence in China especially when she was no longer in China anymore.
Please read about the China political situation below.
Monday, September 18, 2017
Singapore NODX jumps significantly in August with 17% year on year growth.
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/singapore-s-exports-jump-17-in-fourth-straight-month-of-growth-9225588
Singapore is a country which relies heavily on international trading and our economic growth also depends significantly on net exports.
China is our largest export nation now and will impact SG's economic growth since we cannot find another market to replace China.
Does it make sense to offend our largest trading partner for the political interest of another nation (USA)?
Asia will get more and more affected by China, whether we like it or not. The USA doesn't care about Asia except for its own political interest. I hope our government will make the right choice.
Singapore is a country which relies heavily on international trading and our economic growth also depends significantly on net exports.
China is our largest export nation now and will impact SG's economic growth since we cannot find another market to replace China.
Does it make sense to offend our largest trading partner for the political interest of another nation (USA)?
Asia will get more and more affected by China, whether we like it or not. The USA doesn't care about Asia except for its own political interest. I hope our government will make the right choice.
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