Stock calls for 17 January 2018

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/17/18	Macquarie	Capitaland	3.8	4.5	Outperform
01/17/18	Lim & Tan	ESR-Reit	0.575	0	Hold
01/17/18	Amfrasers	First Ship Lease Trust	0.093	0.15	Buy
01/17/18	OCBC	SPH	2.71	2.51	Hold	Sum of parts (10% discount)
01/17/18	CIMB	Starhub	2.92	2.8	Hold	DCF

Singapore non-oil domestic exports (NODX) - Part 9

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/singapore-s-exports-growth-slows-further-as-electronics-decline-9868102

Year on year changes:

December 2017: 3.1%

November 2017: 9.1%

October 2017: 20.9%

September 2017: -1.1%

August 2017: 16.7%

July 2017: 8.5%

June 2017: 8.2%
May 2017: -1.2%
Apr 2017: -0.7%
Mar 2017: 16.5%
Feb 2017: 21.1%
Jan 2017: 8.6%
Dec 2016: 9.1%
Nov 2016: 15.6%

There was a sharp slowdown in NODX in December 2017.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2017/12/singapore-non-oil-domestic-exports-nodx.html

Noble's future is getting from bad to worse - Part 2

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-commodity-revenue-drops-75-151222972.html

The commodity industry is still in a doldrum as we can see it from the investment bank's commodity trading division.

It will be hard for Noble to survive in this industry as it has sold all its golden gooses.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2018/01/nobes-future-is-getting-from-bad-to.html

China has managed to control ASEAN!

http://www.todayonline.com/world/mekong-countries-pledge-more-cooperation-demands-river-grow

China has managed to convince 5 ASEAN members to let China build 20 dams along Mekong river in exchange for resource sharing such as electricity generated by the dams through electrical grids which will be connected to these 5 countries.  Thus, China will be in charge of sharing the water & electricity among these 5 ASEAN members.

This has big implications for ASEAN as these 5 economies will be closely integrated with China's.  Furthermore, China will also implement its QRcode payment system in these countries to facilitate purchases for China tourists and local residents.  It is without any doubt that China will be able to exert its political powers and influences over these 5 ASEAN members and dilute Singapore's influences.  We took cognizant of such development in our previous posting below.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2017/12/china-is-forging-closer-relationships.html

China has made it very difficult for Singapore to oppose China in the ASEAN summit this year especially when SG is the chairman in 2018.

China is expected to win the KL-SG HSR because of its technological, economical and political prowess.  Please read our previous postings.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2017/09/why-is-china-so-blase-about-singapore.html

http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2017/09/who-will-win-kl-sg-hsr-project.html

If the KL-SG HSR is awarded to another country especially to Japan, China will not take this fiasco lying down lightly and deem this to be an anti-China move.  Therefore, China will definitely take revenge in the future as it has shown to possess great patience in implementing its strategic plans.

China wants to ban cryptocurrency completely.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/pboc-official-says-chinas-centralised-virtual-currency-trade-055307878--business.html

China wants to wipe out cryptocurrency from the mainland.  China is restricting electricity, land use and so on to ban cryptocurrency.

We support China's move because cryptocurrency is a derivative that can disrupt an economy in a very bad way and it defies economic sense.

A government manages an economy in 3 basic forms: Monetary, Fiscal & Structural policies.  However, it is already difficult to manage an economy with these 3-pronged approaches and recessions happen periodically.

As cryptocurrency will affect the monetary policy effectiveness, it is wiser for the government to nip the cryptocurrency in the bud before it explodes and renders the monetary policy ineffective.  The government will find it almost impossible to manage an economy with only 2 tools instead of 3.

China credit rating firm cuts USA credit standing.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinese-agency-dagong-cuts-u-sovereign-ratings-bbb-082413506--business.html

China credit rating firm cuts USA credit standing from A- to BBB+, citing USA debt problem as the main reason for the downgrade.

Trump has added US$1.5T to the national debt in the next 10 years because of his tax policies and the USA government is virtually bankrupt now.  The debt ceiling must be raised to allow the USA government to function properly.  The US economic growth is based on credit booming and this is not sustainable as the day of reckoning will come sooner or later.

However, no western credit rating firm dares to report the USA problems in details for fear of retaliation from the USA government.  This is akin to the approvals of the Lehman Brothers minibonds by all the western credit rating firms until the saga happened.

Japfa - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/12/16	DBS Vickers	Japfa	0.475	0.9	Buy
03/01/16	DBS Vickers	Japfa	0.5	0.9	Buy	Sum of parts
05/03/16	DBS Vickers	Japfa	0.695	1.1	Buy
06/09/16	DBS Vickers	Japfa	0.745	1.1	Buy	Sum of parts
07/28/16	DBS Vickers	Japfa	0.84	0.96	Hold	Sum of parts
08/16/16	DBS Vickers	Japfa	0.81	0.97	Buy	Sum of parts, EV/Ebitda6.6x
09/21/16	DBS Vickers	Japfa	0.805	0.97	Buy
10/28/16	DBS Vickers	Japfa	0.805	1.18	Buy	Sum of parts
01/24/17	CIMB	Japfa	0.92	1.53	Add	Sum of parts, PER11.6x CY17
02/10/17	DBS Vickers	Japfa	1.02	1.26	Buy
03/03/17	CIMB	Japfa	0.9	1.41	Add	Sum of parts
03/06/17	DBS Vickers	Japfa	0.89	1.25	Buy	Sum of parts, PER10.1x FY17
04/10/17	DBS Vickers	Japfa	0.835	1.25	Buy
04/17/17	CIMB	Japfa	0.805	0.69	Reduce	Sum of parts
04/24/17	DBS Vickers	Japfa	0.63	1	Buy	Sum of parts, EV/Ebitda6.5x FY17, PER10.5x FY17
05/02/17	CIMB	Japfa	0.605	0.58	Reduce	Sum of parts, PER8.2x CY17, PER7.2x CY18
05/02/17	DBS Vickers	Japfa	0.605	0.84	Buy	Sum of parts, PER10.7x FY17
07/05/17	DBS Vickers	Japfa	0.65	0.88	Buy	Sum of parts
07/31/17	CIMB	Japfa	0.595	0.55	Reduce	Sum of parts

Japan Foods - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/17/17	Amfrasers	Japan Foods	0.445	0.56	Buy	DCF, PER18x FY18
05/29/17	Amfrasers	Japan Foods	0.48	0.54	Buy	DCF, PER18.7x FY18
08/04/17	Amfrasers	Japan Foods	0.43	0.53	Buy	DCF
11/15/17	Amfrasers	Japan Foods	0.43	0.53	Buy	DCF

Stock calls for 16 January 2018

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/16/18	Phillip	800Super	1.25	1.4	Accumulate	DCF, PER16.3x FY18
01/16/18	Kim Eng	Bukit Sembawang	6.39	8.25	Buy	RNAV (38% discount), PB1.37x
01/16/18	CIMB	City Developments	13.46	13.15	Add
01/16/18	Kim Eng	City Developments	13.46	13.8	Buy	RNAV (6% discount), PB1.26x
01/16/18	phillip	Dasin Retail	0.85	0.98	Buy	DDM
01/16/18	OCBC	Golden Agri	0.39	0.37	Hold
01/16/18	Kim Eng	Guocoland	2.26	2.95	Buy	RNAV (38% discount), PB0.68x
01/16/18	OCBC	SATS	5.78	5.5	Hold	Buy @ $5.05 or lower
01/16/18	DBS Vickers	SPH	2.71	2.78	Hold	Sum of parts
01/16/18	CIMB	UOL	9.34	9.62	Add
01/16/18	Kim Eng	UOL	9.34	9.85	Buy	RNAV (15% discount), PB0.85x
01/16/18	UOB Kay Hian	Wilmar	3.19	4.1	Buy	Sum of parts, PER14x FY18

Singapore port handing capacity had increased by 10% in 2017.

http://www.seatrade-maritime.com/news/asia/psa-global-container-volumes-up-9-8-to-74-2m-teu-last-year.html

Singapore port handling capacity volume in TEU:

2011 = 29.94m

2012 = 31.65m

2013 = 32.6m

2014 = 33.87m

2015 = 30.9m

2016 = 30.59m

2017 = 33.35m

https://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2017/01/singapore-port-volume-has-dropped-again.html

Singapore's port handling capacity volume increased by almost 10% in 2017 which was a good news.  However, we do not expect this growth to be continued for the next few years because other upcoming ports will start to operate fully soon and the emergence of the Arctic lane will thwart the continual growth of the South East Asia lane.

Initially, we expected SG port to decline in its handling capacity in 2017 because we overestimated China's animosity towards SG and would try to bypass or cut down its dependence on SG port.  However, China has shown that it has the patience to deal with any adversity with its strategic planning (OBR initiative).

The petrol-yuan era is coming!

https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/International/China-Is-About-To-Shake-Up-Oil-Futures.html

The Shanghai International Energy Exchange will start oil futures trading in RMB on 18 Jan.  This will definitely affect the USD demands and internationalize the RMB.  Investors who dabble in oil trading will need to have RMB accounts and they'll also use their RMBs to buy other commodities and assets such as gold in RMB too.

Oil trading in RMB is not uncommon as Russia and some other Middle Eastern countries have already begun exporting oil to China in RMB.  Therefore, it makes sense for these countries to participate in the oil trading futures in China.  Presently, the oil trading on the Shanghai exchange is Russia's oil.  In time to come, Iran & Saudi may join the oil trading in China.  Let's see how this will pan out in the future.

Jadason - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/08/17	DMG & Partners	Jadason	0.07	0.15	Buy	DCF, PER12x FY18
06/27/17	DMG & Partners	Jadason	0.088	0.15	Buy	DCF, PER12x FY18
07/03/17	CIMB	Jadason	0.084	0.17	Add	PER12.34x FY18
08/04/17	CIMB	Jadason	0.103	0.17	Add	PER12.34x FY18
08/07/17	DMG & Partners	Jadason	0.1	0.15	Buy	DCF, PER12x FY18
09/04/17	DMG & Partners	Jadason	0.102	0.12	Buy	DCF, PER11.4x FY18
09/05/17	CIMB	Jadason	0.095	0.13	Add	PER12.34x FY18
11/09/17	DMG & Partners	Jadason	0.093	0.1	Buy	DCF, PER11.3x FY18
11/13/17	CIMB	Jadason	0.087	0.11	Add	PER12.34x FY19

Isoteam - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/07/16	UOB Kay Hian	ISOTeam	0.62	0.73	Buy	PER9.6x FY17
02/03/16	DMG & Partners	ISOTeam	0.61	0.82	Buy	DCF, PER10x FY16
02/22/16	Kim Eng	ISOTeam	0.32	0.41	Not Rated	Bloomberg consensus, Ex-Bonus 1 for 1
06/01/16	DMG & Partners	ISOTeam	0.32	0.41	Buy	DCF, PER10x FY16
07/27/16	UOB Kay Hian	ISOTeam	0.38	0.53	Buy	DCF
08/10/16	DMG & Partners	ISOTeam	0.425	0.51	Buy	DCF, PER12x FY17
08/25/16	UOB Kay Hian	ISOTeam	0.43	0.53	Hold	DCF, PER13.3x, PB2.5x
08/26/16	DMG & Partners	ISOTeam	0.41	0.54	Buy
12/02/16	DMG & Partners	ISOTeam	0.385	0.54	Buy
01/10/17	DMG & Partners	ISOTeam	0.395	0.54	Buy	DCF, PER14x FY17
01/12/17	UOB Kay Hian	ISOTeam	0.405	0.6	Buy	DCF
02/14/17	UOB Kay Hian	ISOTeam	0.42	0.6	Buy	DCF
02/15/17	DMG & Partners	ISOTeam	0.405	0.59	Buy	DCF, PER13.5x FY17
03/02/17	UOB Kay Hian	ISOTeam	0.395	0.6	Buy
05/15/17	UOB Kay Hian	ISOTeam	0.37	0.54	Buy
08/28/17	DMG & Partners	ISOTeam	0.345	0.5	Buy	DCF
11/13/17	DMG & Partners	ISOTeam	0.345	0.46	Buy	DCF, PER13x FY18

ISEC Healthcare - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/21/16	Kim Eng	Isec Healthcare	0.22	0.4	Buy	PER27x FY16
05/31/16	Kim Eng	Isec Healthcare	0.27	0.42	Buy	PER30x FY16
06/05/17	Kim Eng	Isec Healthcare	0.345	0.4	Buy	PER23x FY18
07/13/17	Kim Eng	Isec Healthcare	0.315	0.4	Buy	PER23x FY18

Stock calls for 15 January 2018

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/15/18	DBS Vickers	Bumitama	0.755	0.94	Buy
01/15/18	OCBC	Capitamall Trust	2.06	2.2	Buy
01/15/18	OCBC	City Developments	13.04	15.3	Buy	RNAV (10% discount)
01/15/18	CIMB	Far East Hospitality	0.72	0.82	Add	DDM
01/15/18	DBS Vickers	First Resources	1.87	2.18	Buy
01/15/18	OCBC	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.26	2.4	Buy
01/15/18	DBS Vickers	Indofood Agri	0.405	0.48	Hold
01/15/18	DBS Vickers	Keppel KBS	0.905	0.95	Buy	DCF
01/15/18	CIMB	SPH	2.63	2.49	Hold	Sum of parts, PER18.6x FY19
01/15/18	UOB Kay Hian	SPH	2.63	2.42	Sell	Sum of parts
01/15/18	Lim & Tan	SPH	2.63	0	Hold
01/15/18	UOB Kay Hian	Tuan Sing	0.49	0.71	Buy
01/15/18	UOB Kay Hian	Venture	22.65	23.5	Buy
01/15/18	DBS Vickers	Wilmar	3.16	3.5	Hold

Baltic dry index - 1279

Today, Friday, January 12 2018, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 24 points, reaching 1279 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

==========================

Related stocks: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan Ocean

US rig count - 939

HOUSTON (AP) — The number of rigs exploring for oil and natural gas in the U.S. increased by 15 this week to 939.

That exceeds the 659 rigs that were active this time a year ago.

Houston oilfield services company Baker Hughes reported on Friday that 752 rigs were drilling for oil and 187 for natural gas this week.

Among oil- and gas-producing states, Louisiana and New Mexico each gained five rigs, Oklahoma increased by three, Colorado gained two and Alaska and Utah each increased by one.

Texas lost two rigs.

Arkansas, California, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Wyoming were unchanged.

The U.S. rig count peaked at 4,530 in 1981. It bottomed out in May of 2016 at 404.

======================

Related stocks: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco

SPH core media business is still worsening.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/sph-media-revenue-fell-13-9-per-cent-lower-ad-circulation-business-132508048.html

SPH has to venture into non-media sectors despite having a monopoly in the media industry to boost its incomes.

SPH is losing its readers because it cannot produce quality and unbiased news anymore.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2017/10/sph-is-shutting-down-asiaone-website.html

Bitcoin is inching closer to its death once anonymity is removed.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mnuchin-warns-against-bitcoin-becoming-145648873.html

The USA is going to work with G20 nations to remove anonymity in cryptocurrency.  Once this anonymity is removed, cryptocurrency will lose its intrinsic value because every criminal will dump and avoid it.

Hot news! Winston Wen, Son of Wen Jiabao (ex-premier) is arrested!

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3338161

As Winston Wen is a major investor in Alibaba, is Jack Ma going to be implicated soon?

The political battle in China is still on-going.  Please see our previous post below to understand China's political situation.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2017/11/china-government-is-targeting-jack-ma.html