Olam - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
11/04/16	phillip	Old Chang Kee	0.705	0.98	Buy	DCF
12/05/16	phillip	Old Chang Kee	0.765	0.98	Buy	DCF
02/14/17	phillip	Old Chang Kee	0.835	0.98	Buy	DCF
04/17/17	phillip	Old Chang Kee	0.85	0.98	Buy
06/05/17	phillip	Old Chang Kee	0.83	0.98	Buy	DCF
08/17/17	phillip	Old Chang Kee	0.765	0.98	Buy	DCF
11/14/17	phillip	Old Chang Kee	0.75	0.98	Buy	DCF
12/04/17	phillip	Old Chang Kee	0.76	0.98	Buy	DCF

Stock calls for 12 February 2018

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/12/18	Phillip	800Super	1.14	1.35	Accumulate	DCF, PER17.8x FY18
02/12/18	Phillip	A-Reit	2.57	2.87	Accumulate
02/12/18	CIMB	CEI	1	1.02	Hold	PER10.48x
02/12/18	UOB Kay Hian	Citic Envirotech	0.705	1.11	Buy	DCF, PER11.1x FY19
02/12/18	phillip	DBS	26.71	29.3	Buy	GGM, PB1.58x
02/12/18	CIMB	Frasers Property	1.96	2.4	Add	RNAV (30% discount)
02/12/18	DBS Vickers	Frasers Property	1.96	2.35	Buy	RNAV (20% discount), PB1x
02/12/18	Phillip	Keppel DC Reit	1.34	1.47	Neutral	DDM
02/12/18	Lim & Tan	KSH	0.705	0	Hold
02/12/18	Phillip	Mapletree Industrial	1.93	2.15	Neutral
02/12/18	Phillip	Nam Lee	0.38	0.56	Buy	DCF, PER11.1x FY18, PB0.96x FY18
02/12/18	phillip	OCBC	12.19	13.48	Buy
02/12/18	DBS Vickers	Perennial Reit	0.835	1.05	Buy	RNAV (50% discount)
02/12/18	phillip	UOB	26.24	25.22	Accumulate

Was Sir Stamford Raffles a badass?

https://sg.style.yahoo.com/sir-stamford-raffles-monster-090425904.html

Are we studying the wrong history?

Historians, please come out to state the truth!  If Sir Stamford Raffles was truly a badass, then we should stop honouring him.

Singapore didn't invite Taiwan defence minister to the Singapore Airshow 2018.

Singapore didn't invite Taiwan defence minister to the Singapore Airshow 2018 after taking cognizant of the simmering anti-Singapore sentiment in China.

SG is showing a goodwill gesture to China by downgrading the SG-Taiwan diplomatic relationship because SG doesn't want to be ostracized in ASEAN by offending China especially when Philippines is so proactive in boosting its political and economic powers in ASEAN.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2018/02/philippines-wants-to-displace-singapore.html

Asia will see no peace soon!

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/us-may-boost-marine-corps-000800611.html

Asia will soon become like the Middle East as the USA increases its military strength in Asia.  History has taught us that the USA will bring chaos into the region as it increases its military strength and the Middle East is a good example.

Good luck to Asia as long as the USA is around!

The conspiracy theory of Trump’s policies.

The conspiracy theorists said that the recent USD depreciation was orchestrated by Trump for US companies to repatriate their overseas monies back to the USA at lower exchange rates and special tax rates.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2018/02/stock-markets-are-falling-like-crazy_9.html

Thereafter, US bond yields started to move higher rapidly to cause the sudden market falls for these companies to use the repatriated monies to buy back their shares at much lower prices, resulting in huge financial profits for these companies.

The theorists alleged that Trump only wanted to benefit and enrich the corporations and his business associates, and this allegation seemed to have some validity that was in sync with the recent movements in USD, bond yields and stock markets.

World bank says bitcoin is a scam!

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cryptocurrencies-apos-ponzi-schemes-apos-000400404.html

Mathematicians, Economists, Central bank, World bank, etc have been saying bitcoin is a bit scam but the millennials still invest in bitcoin.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2018/02/mathematicians-say-that-bitcoin-is-scam.html

When the bitcoin implodes, the millennials cannot blame somebody except themselves for investing in crypto.

China mid-course anti-missile test was successful.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-defence/china-says-carries-out-another-anti-missile-test-idUSKBN1FQ08X

USA aegis system failed but China mid-course anti-missile test was successful.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2018/02/usa-aegis-missile-defence-system-failed.html

Mid-course interception is difficult because the incoming missile has not re-entered the atmosphere from outer space yet.

Congrats to China for the successful test!

Baltic dry index - 1125

Today, Friday, February 09 2018, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 19 points, reaching 1125 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

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Related stocks: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan Ocean

US rig count - 975

HOUSTON (AP) - The number of rigs exploring for oil and natural gas in the U.S. increased by 29 this week to 975.

That exceeds the 741 rigs that were active this time a year ago.

Houston oilfield services company Baker Hughes reported Friday that 791 rigs drilled for oil this week and 184 for gas.

Among major oil- and gas-producing states, Texas increased by 14 rigs, North Dakota and Wyoming each gained four, Louisiana and New Mexico each increased by three and Kansas and Oklahoma each gained one.

Colorado decreased by one.

Alaska, Arkansas, California, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Utah and West Virginia were unchanged.

The U.S. rig count peaked at 4,530 in 1981. It bottomed out in May of 2016 at 404.

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Related stocks: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco

The USA has abandoned the Syrian Kurds.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-turkey-usa/u-s-to-end-weapons-support-for-syrian-kurdish-ypg-turkey-says-idUSKBN1FG08W

We've stated before that the USA would betray the Syrian Kurds.  The Syrian Kurds will perish if they still continue to harbour any false hope.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2017/12/the-kurds-are-living-in-land-of.html

Syrian Kurds, please wake up and face the reality.  The USA will only think of its own political interest and will betray the Syrian Kurds anytime.

Olam - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/11/16	UOB Kay Hian	Olam	1.695	2.3	Buy
01/12/16	DBS Vickers	Olam	1.7	2.01	Hold
01/12/16	Lim & Tan	Olam	1.7	0	Hold
01/12/16	OCBC	Olam	1.7	1.86	Hold
03/01/16	DBS Vickers	Olam	1.595	1.58	Hold	DCF & PER10.3x
04/11/16	Lim & Tan	Olam	1.655	0	Hold
04/11/16	OCBC	Olam	1.655	1.67	Hold
06/10/16	Lim & Tan	Olam	1.89	0	Hold
11/16/16	DBS Vickers	Olam	2.03	1.94	Hold	DCF & PER10.3x
03/01/17	DBS Vickers	Olam	2.05	2.12	Hold	DCF & PER16.4x
05/16/17	DBS Vickers	Olam	1.99	2.15	Hold	DCF & PER16.3x

OKP - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/15/17	DBS Vickers	OKP	0.395	0.45	Not Rated	PER11x FY17
06/28/17	Amfrasers	OKP	0.445	0.52	Buy	PER11x FY17
07/17/17	Amfrasers	OKP	0.395	0.39	Hold

Stock calls for 9 February 2018

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/09/18	Kim Eng	DBS	26.71	29.66	Hold
02/09/18	UOB Kay Hian	DBS	26.71	30.4	Buy	GGM, PB1.62x FY18
02/09/18	CIMB	DBS	26.71	29	Add	GGM, PB1.5x FY18, PER11.6x FY19
02/09/18	Lim & Tan	First Sponsor	1.41	0	Buy
02/09/18	UOB Kay Hian	Memtech	1.29	1.43	Buy	PER11.6x FY18
02/09/18	DMG & Partners	Moya Asia	0.091	0.17	Buy	DCF
02/09/18	DMG & Partners	Neo Group	0.67	0.67	Neutral
02/09/18	CIMB	Perennial Reit	0.835	1.12	Add
02/09/18	Kim Eng	SIA	10.86	10.95	Hold	PB0.93x FY18
02/09/18	OCBC	Singtel	3.4	4.15	Buy
02/09/18	UOB Kay Hian	Singtel	3.4	4.4	Buy	DCF
02/09/18	CIMB	Singtel	3.4	4	Add

Here we go again! The USA government has to shut down again.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/happens-u-government-shutdown-054756485--business.html

When a government has no money to pay its government employees, do you still think the USA can repay its national debt of more than USD$20T?

New crypto will cannibalize old crypto.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-cash-leads-crypto-gainers-192707030.html

Bitcoin cash is cannibalizing bitcoin now.

We stated this before based on common economic principle.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2017/12/bitcoin-will-have-another-fork-after.html

Stock markets are falling like crazy because of rising treasury yield - Part 2

Dow Jones fell more than 1,000 points again for the 2nd time within 4 days. It fell more than 1,000 points after 10-year bond yield first reached 2.84% on 2 Feb.  10-year bond yield is at 2.85% now and the Dow Jones falls more than 1,000 points again.

High bond yields are detrimental to the stock markets but will cause USD to appreciate as the risk-free rate affects other interest rates.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.sg/2018/02/stock-markets-are-falling-like-crazy.html

USD has been appreciating because of higher bond yields which will cause other interest rates to increase.

The USA had increased its national debt by about USD$10T in the past decade (2008) and higher interest rates would increase its interest repayment burden.  This is the primary reason for the stock market fall.  The stock market will see more volatilities from now because FED has to increase interest rates gradually.

Midas assets are frozen in China.

https://www.theedgesingapore.com/midas-ceo-says-shares-and-money-china-subsidiaries-and-associates-frozen-courts?utm_source=Singapore+Market+Report&utm_campaign=4cce0ed852-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_02_08&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_46b7beec93-4cce0ed852-90900869

Things are not looking good for Midas as its assets are frozen in China.

Midas is definitely not innocent and this is something that investors have to bear for investing in mid-size China firms.  Many China listed companies got into troubles already insofar.

Something happened to CNY today!

Look at the long green bar which is circled in red.  Downward trajectory means CNY appreciation and upward trajectory means CNY depreciation.

The long green bar appears because China revives QDLP outbound investment scheme.  This QDLP scheme means foreign fund managers can raise money from China and invest overseas and there'll be an outflow of CNY.  Thus, CNY depreciates today due to an impending increase in CNY supply in the international market.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-outbound-investment/china-revives-qdlp-outbound-investment-scheme-in-boost-for-foreign-funds-sources-idUSKBN1FS0DV

Wow! Our Singapore Post got robbed!

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/male-suspect-sought-robbery-singpost-branch-potong-pasir-091438514.html

This is definitely the first such robbery in SG.  Who would expect our Singpost to be robbed?