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Wednesday, August 15, 2018

Triyards - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/09/17 Amfrasers Triyards 0.315 0.43 Buy PB0.5x FY17
01/09/17 OCBC Triyards 0.315 0.47 Buy PB0.55x FY17
01/09/17 UOB Kay Hian Triyards 0.315 0.46 Buy PB0.46x FY17
03/10/17 UOB Kay Hian Triyards 0.395 0.27 Hold
03/15/17 OCBC Triyards 0.295 0.345 Hold PB
04/10/17 OCBC Triyards 0.25 0.33 Hold PB0.35x FY17/18
07/24/17 OCBC Triyards 0.149 0.19 Hold PB0.3x FY18

Trendlines - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
11/27/17 NRA Trendlines 0.143 0.225 Overweight RNAV (20% discount)
06/28/18 NRA Trendlines 0.119 0.225 Overweight

Top Glove - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
10/19/17 Aminvestment Top Glove 1.98 2.05 Hold Ringgit target $6.36, up from $6.22
06/20/18 Lim & Tan Top Glove 3.88 0 Hold
06/22/18 Kim Eng Top Glove 3.81 4.4 Buy
07/11/18 Kim Eng Top Glove 3.4 4.36 Hold Ringgit target $12.90, PER30x FY19

Stock calls for 15 August 2018


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
08/15/18 UOB Kay Hian Banyan Tree 0.535 1 Buy Sum of parts
08/15/18 DBS Vickers Bumitama 0.705 0.88 Buy DCF, PER13.7x FY19
08/15/18 DMG & Partners Bumitama 0.705 0.8 Buy PER11x FY19
08/15/18 CIMB CSE Global 0.45 0.5 Add PER13.5x CY19
08/15/18 UOB Kay Hian CSE Global 0.45 0.58 Buy PER15x FY19
08/15/18 DMG & Partners Food Empire 0.56 0.6 Neutral PER14x FY18
08/15/18 DMG & Partners Fu Yu 0.174 0.22 Buy DCF
08/15/18 OCBC Golden Agri 0.28 0.26 Hold PER17.5x FY19
08/15/18 CIMB Jumbo 0.515 0.62 Add PER23x CY19
08/15/18 DBS Vickers MM2 Asia 0.42 0.62 Buy Sum of parts
08/15/18 DMG & Partners Singapore Medical 0.43 0.56 Buy DCF
08/15/18 CIMB Starhub 1.65 1.85 Add DCF
08/15/18 DBS Vickers Thai Beverage 0.7 0.94 Buy Sum of parts
08/15/18 CIMB UMS 0.79 1.21 Add PB2.82x
08/15/18 DBS Vickers UMS 0.79 1.01 Buy PER10x FY19
08/15/18 Kim Eng Valuetronics 0.735 1.05 Buy
08/15/18 UOB Kay Hian Valuetronics 0.735 0.96 Buy PER11.3x FY19
08/15/18 DMG & Partners Valuetronics 0.735 0.92 Buy PER10x FY19
08/15/18 CIMB Valuetronics 0.735 0.95 Add PER10x CY19
08/15/18 DBS Vickers Wilmar 3.25 3.61 Buy DCF
08/15/18 DMG & Partners Wilmar 3.25 3.69 Buy Sum of parts
08/15/18 CIMB Yongnam 0.255 0.45 Add PB0.8x FY19

Tuesday, August 14, 2018

What's the real intention behind Goh's ministerial pay speech?

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/comment-furore-ministerial-pay-gaining-currency-131941715.html

It is evident that Goh and PAP cannot get along anymore and Goh is using the tactic that LKY used to cause George Yeo to lose in the GE.  LKY told the Aljunied residents that they would repent for the next 5 year if they didn't vote for George Yeo.

Goh is trying to create the same poignant and make the people disgruntled.  It is pretty obvious that PAP has ramifications in its party now.


Tianjin Zhongxin - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
04/05/17 CIMB Tianjin Zhongxin 0.975 1.3 Add DCF FY17
08/02/17 UOB Kay Hian Tianjin Zhongxin 1.05 1.66 Buy PER15.5x FY18
09/05/17 UOB Kay Hian Tianjin Zhongxin 1.13 1.66 Buy PER15.5x FY18
10/04/17 UOB Kay Hian Tianjin Zhongxin 1.055 1.66 Buy PER15.5x FY18
11/02/17 UOB Kay Hian Tianjin Zhongxin 1.03 1.5 Buy PER14.6x FY18
01/03/18 UOB Kay Hian Tianjin Zhongxin 0.945 1.52 Buy PER14.1x FY18
04/02/18 UOB Kay Hian Tianjin Zhongxin 0.92 1.66 Buy PER14.1x FY18
04/30/18 UOB Kay Hian Tianjin Zhongxin 1.01 1.72 Buy PER14.1x FY18
05/21/18 UOB Kay Hian Tianjin Zhongxin 1.2 1.72 Buy PER14.1x FY18
06/04/18 UOB Kay Hian Tianjin Zhongxin 1.21 1.72 Buy
07/13/18 UOB Kay Hian Tianjin Zhongxin 1.12 1.72 Buy

Thai Beverage - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/04/17 CIMB Thai Beverage 0.855 1.07 Add Sum of parts, PER19.6x CY17
01/10/17 OCBC Thai Beverage 0.845 1.01 Buy
02/02/17 OCBC Thai Beverage 0.87 1.01 Buy
02/15/17 CIMB Thai Beverage 0.88 1.07 Add Sum of parts
02/16/17 DBS Vickers Thai Beverage 0.94 1.01 Buy
03/06/17 OCBC Thai Beverage 0.935 1.01 Buy
03/23/17 CIMB Thai Beverage 0.925 1.07 Add Sum of parts
03/31/17 UOB Kay Hian Thai Beverage 0.935 1.09 Buy Sum of parts
04/10/17 DBS Vickers Thai Beverage 0.94 1.09 Buy Sum of parts
04/10/17 DMG & Partners Thai Beverage 0.94 1.1 Buy Sum of parts
05/08/17 CIMB Thai Beverage 0.91 1.07 Add Sum of parts
05/12/17 DBS Vickers Thai Beverage 0.915 1.09 Buy Sum of parts
05/12/17 OCBC Thai Beverage 0.915 1.01 Buy
05/15/17 DMG & Partners Thai Beverage 0.885 1.1 Buy Sum of parts
05/15/17 UOB Kay Hian Thai Beverage 0.885 1.09 Buy Sum of parts
06/13/17 OCBC Thai Beverage 0.88 1.01 Buy
06/14/17 UOB Kay Hian Thai Beverage 0.885 1.09 Buy
06/16/17 DBS Vickers Thai Beverage 0.895 1.09 Buy
06/29/17 DBS Vickers Thai Beverage 0.89 1.07 Buy Sum of parts
07/03/17 DMG & Partners Thai Beverage 0.9 1.1 Buy Sum of parts, PER26x FY17
07/07/17 CIMB Thai Beverage 0.91 1.07 Add Sum of parts
07/10/17 Phillip Thai Beverage 0.91 1.05 Accumulate Sum of parts
07/11/17 UOB Kay Hian Thai Beverage 0.915 1.09 Buy Sum of parts
07/25/17 DBS Vickers Thai Beverage 0.93 1.07 Buy Sum of parts
08/08/17 UOB Kay Hian Thai Beverage 0.96 1.09 Buy Sum of parts
08/10/17 CIMB Thai Beverage 0.955 1.07 Add Sum of parts
08/10/17 DMG & Partners Thai Beverage 0.955 1.1 Buy Sum of parts
08/10/17 OCBC Thai Beverage 0.955 1.01 Buy
08/11/17 DBS Vickers Thai Beverage 0.945 1.07 Buy
08/14/17 Phillip Thai Beverage 0.93 1.05 Accumulate Sum of parts
08/14/17 UOB Kay Hian Thai Beverage 0.93 1.09 Buy Sum of parts
09/05/17 UOB Kay Hian Thai Beverage 0.925 1.09 Buy Sum of parts
09/18/17 OCBC Thai Beverage 0.92 1.01 Buy
09/18/17 Credit Suisse Thai Beverage 0.92 1.04 Outperform
09/19/17 DBS Vickers Thai Beverage 0.915 1.07 Buy
09/20/17 DMG & Partners Thai Beverage 0.91 1.1 Buy Sum of parts
10/04/17 UOB Kay Hian Thai Beverage 0.9 1.09 Buy Sum of parts
10/13/17 DBS Vickers Thai Beverage 0.945 1.07 Buy
10/16/17 DMG & Partners Thai Beverage 0.94 1.12 Buy Sum of parts
11/02/17 UOB Kay Hian Thai Beverage 0.98 1.09 Buy Sum of parts
11/24/17 DBS Vickers Thai Beverage 0.94 1.07 Buy
11/27/17 CIMB Thai Beverage 0.97 1.15 Add Sum of parts, PER24.8x FY18
11/27/17 Phillip Thai Beverage 0.97 1.18 Buy Sum of parts, PER24.2x FY18
11/27/17 UOB Kay Hian Thai Beverage 0.97 1.11 Buy Sum of parts
11/27/17 OCBC Thai Beverage 0.97 1.07 Buy Sum of parts
11/27/17 CIMB Thai Beverage 0.97 1.15 Add
12/04/17 Phillip Thai Beverage 0.96 1.18 Buy
12/06/17 UOB Kay Hian Thai Beverage 0.955 1.11 Buy Sum of parts
12/13/17 Phillip Thai Beverage 0.955 1.18 Buy Sum of parts
12/13/17 CIMB Thai Beverage 0.955 1.15 Add Sum of parts
12/19/17 DBS Vickers Thai Beverage 0.97 1.07 Buy Sum of parts
12/20/17 CIMB Thai Beverage 0.95 1 Hold Sum of parts, PER22.6x CY18
01/04/18 UOB Kay Hian Thai Beverage 0.915 1.11 Buy Sum of parts
01/11/18 OCBC Thai Beverage 0.93 1.07 Buy
01/23/18 Nomura Thai Beverage 0.92 1.13 Buy
01/23/18 DBS Vickers Thai Beverage 0.92 1.07 Buy
01/23/18 CIMB Thai Beverage 0.92 1 Hold
02/01/18 UOB Kay Hian Thai Beverage 0.92 1.06 Buy Sum of parts
02/15/18 UOB Kay Hian Thai Beverage 0.91 0.99 Hold Sum of parts, Buy @ $0.84
02/15/18 CIMB Thai Beverage 0.91 0.98 Hold Sum of parts, PER21.8x CY18
02/19/18 DBS Vickers Thai Beverage 0.85 1.02 Buy Sum of parts
02/22/18 Phillip Thai Beverage 0.835 1.05 Buy Sum of parts
03/05/18 OCBC Thai Beverage 0.825 0.95 Buy
03/19/18 Phillip Thai Beverage 0.815 1.05 Buy
03/26/18 DBS Vickers Thai Beverage 0.805 1.02 Buy
04/16/18 Phillip Thai Beverage 0.8 1.05 Buy
05/10/18 DMG & Partners Thai Beverage 0.83 1.06 Buy Sum of parts
05/16/18 DBS Vickers Thai Beverage 0.8 1.02 Buy
05/17/18 Phillip Thai Beverage 0.795 1.05 Buy Sum of parts
05/17/18 CIMB Thai Beverage 0.795 0.98 Add Sum of parts
05/17/18 OCBC Thai Beverage 0.795 0.95 Buy
06/11/18 CIMB Thai Beverage 0.77 0.98 Add
06/22/18 DMG & Partners Thai Beverage 0.77 1.06 Buy
07/03/18 UOB Kay Hian Thai Beverage 0.7 0.99 Buy
07/12/18 DMG & Partners Thai Beverage 0.725 1.02 Buy Sum of parts
07/25/18 DBS Vickers Thai Beverage 0.74 0.94 Buy Sum of parts

Stock calls for 14 August 2018


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
08/14/18 Amfrasers Comfortdelgro 2.35 2.72 Buy PER19x FY18
08/14/18 DBS Vickers Cromwell Reit (EUR) 0.595 0.66 Buy DCF
08/14/18 phillip Dasin Retail 0.9 0.97 Accumulate DDM
08/14/18 DBS Vickers ESR-Reit 0.51 0.63 Buy
08/14/18 Kim Eng First Resources 1.56 2 Buy
08/14/18 DMG & Partners First Resources 1.56 1.6 Neutral PER11x FY19
08/14/18 CIMB First Resources 1.56 2.03 Add PER15x CY19
08/14/18 phillip Ho Bee 2.52 2.98 Accumulate RNAV (30% discount)
08/14/18 DBS Vickers Hong Leong Finance 2.7 3.2 Buy GGM, PB0l7x FY19
08/14/18 DBS Vickers HRnetGroup 0.885 1.01 Buy PER15x FY19, ex-cash
08/14/18 UOB Kay Hian Jumbo 0.53 0.49 Hold DCF, Buy @ $0.44
08/14/18 DBS Vickers Jumbo 0.53 0.57 Hold PER23x FY19
08/14/18 Amfrasers Manulife US Reit 0.845 0.97 Buy
08/14/18 CIMB Memtech 1.12 1.43 Add PER10x FY19
08/14/18 Amfrasers Mindchamps 0.705 0.86 Buy DCF, PER22.6x FY18
08/14/18 phillip Singapore O&G 0.36 0.42 Accumulate PER23.2x
08/14/18 OCBC Wheelock Properties 2.19 2.34 Reject offer Offer $2.1
08/14/18 UOB Kay Hian Wilmar 3.13 3.9 Buy PER14.5x FY18
08/14/18 CIMB Wilmar 3.13 4.1 Add Sum of parts

Mahathir is old and senile already! - Part 2

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/news/malaysia-eyes-more-10-fold-hike-singapore-water-102025305--finance.html


What a foolish old man!

The water pact formed part of the separation agreement between Malaysia and Singapore.  It was one of the conditions to secure the separation from Singapore because Malaysia was very keen to be separated from Singapore.  This was the reason for Singapore to lodge the water pact and the separation agreement with the UN and LKY couldn't trust the Malaysian government.  Therefore, the water pact was not an ordinary commercial agreement that anyone could review or alter unless someone wanted to void the separation agreement.

If Mahathir thought that he could review the water pact, then UK could also use the Mahathir's logic to review the independence agreement that was given to Malaysia.  UK could claim that it was a mistake to let Malaysia gain independence and Malaysia was still supposedly a British colony.

Maybe Mahathir wanted to become a British again!

Monday, August 13, 2018

Mahathir is old and senile already!

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2018-08-13/ap-interview-malaysias-mahathir-aims-to-scrap-china-deals

By scrapping the China deals, Mahathir will remove any vested interest in Malaysia from China.  When China doesn't see any strategic importance of Malaysia in Asean, China will move its investment elsewhere and the Malacca Gateway will suffer because China doesn't need Strait of Malacca anymore as nature has created the arctic sea lane.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/08/the-strait-of-malacca-and-singapore-psa.html

As 70% of the ships plying the Strait of Malacca belong to China at this moment, it is critical that China stays vested in this region.  Once China stops using the Strait of Malacca, Malaysia will relegate to become a poverty state.

Mahathir, are you really doing Malaysia any good with your myopic vision?

Telechoice - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
04/10/17 NRA Telechoice 0.27 0.34 Overweight PER15.56x FY17
08/15/17 NRA Telechoice 0.25 0.34 Overweight

Tee Land - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/20/17 NRA Tee Land 0.195 0.29 Overweight
03/09/18 NRA Tee Land 0.21 0.28 Overweight Sum of parts

Stock calls for 13 August 2018


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
08/13/18 DBS Vickers Capitaland 3.31 3.62 Buy RNAV (25% discount)
08/13/18 OCBC CDL Hospitality 1.5 1.42 Hold
08/13/18 phillip China Sunsine 1.23 1.77 Buy FCFE
08/13/18 phillip Comfortdelgro 2.38 2.78 Accumulate DCF, PER19.7x FY18
08/13/18 UOB Kay Hian Comfortdelgro 2.38 2.59 Buy PER16.8x FY19
08/13/18 DMG & Partners Comfortdelgro 2.38 2.35 Neutral DCF
08/13/18 OCBC Comfortdelgro 2.38 2.5 Hold
08/13/18 CIMB Comfortdelgro 2.38 2.75 Add DCF, PER18.1x FY19
08/13/18 OCBC Far East Hospitality 0.62 0.69 Buy
08/13/18 DBS Vickers Frasers Property 1.71 1.98 Buy RNAV (35% discount)
08/13/18 CIMB Frasers Property 1.71 2.02 Add RNAV (35% discount)
08/13/18 DMG & Partners HRnetGroup 0.9 1.18 Buy DCF
08/13/18 NRA ISDN 0.215 0.32 Overweight
08/13/18 UOB Kay Hian KSH 0.61 0.87 Buy RNAV (50% discount)
08/13/18 OCBC KSH 0.61 0.98 Buy
08/13/18 Lim & Tan Singtel 3.14 0 Hold

Singapore NODX in July 2018 increased 9.4% from last year.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/government-economy/singapore-q2-non-oil-exports-jump-94-full-year-forecast-raised-to-25-35

Year on year changes (YOY):
July 2018: 11.8% (Corrected)
June 2018: 1.1%
May 2018: 15.5%
April 2018: 11.8%
March 2018: -2.7%
February 2018: -5.9%
January 2018: 13%
December 2017: 3.1%
November 2017: 9.1%
October 2017: 20.9%
September 2017: -1.1%
August 2017: 16.7%
July 2017: 8.5%
June 2017: 8.2%
May 2017: -1.2%
Apr 2017: -0.7%
Mar 2017: 16.5%
Feb 2017: 21.1%
Jan 2017: 8.6%
https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/07/singapore-nodx-increased-only-11-in.html

The Chinese are very nationalistic people and the USA is messing with the wrong country.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-sentiment/the-chinese-streets-view-of-the-trade-war-some-say-they-wont-buy-u-s-products-idUSKBN1KY0LA

This Reuter survey paints a very grim future for the USA if the US-China trade war escalates further.

Is the USA willing to give up the largest consumer market in the whole world? I don't think so.

Singapore GDP growth for the 2nd quarter is slowing.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/singapores-gdp-growth-disappoints-construction-slumps-024227540.html

Singapore 2nd Qtr GDP growth is at an annualized rate of 0.6% and is slowing down significantly from the previous quarter and annually too.

With the escalation in the US-China trade war, Singapore will slow down further because SG cannot escape unscathed from it since SG is an international trading hub.

Furthermore, SG is increasing utility rates, GST and also will try to increase its ministerial pays.

Singaporeans have to hunker down for tougher times ahead.

Saturday, August 11, 2018

Turkey's financial crisis has erupted and may stoke contagion.

https://www.bloombergquint.com/markets/2018/08/10/turkish-lira-collapses-as-investors-panic-before-erdogan-address#gs.OQaSmGw

There is a high possibility that Turkey's financial crisis may cause a wipeout of Temasek's investment in Turkey's companies.

European banks will also suffer because of this fallout.

Baltic dry index - 1691

Today, Friday, August 10 2018, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 3 points, reaching 1691 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
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Related stocks: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan Ocean.

US rig count - 1057

HOUSTON — The number of rigs exploring for oil and natural gas in the U.S. has jumped by 13 this week to 1,057.
At this time a year ago there were 949 active rigs.
Houston oilfield services company Baker Hughes reported Friday that 869 rigs drilled for oil this week and 186 for gas. Two were listed as miscellaneous.
Among major oil- and gas-producing states, Louisiana gained six rigs and New Mexico increased by five. Alaska and Oklahoma each gained two. California and Ohio added a rig apiece.
Texas, meanwhile, lost two rigs, while Arkansas, Kansas and Pennsylvania each decreased by one.
Colorado, North Dakota, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming were unchanged from last week. The U.S. rig count peaked at 4,530 in 1981. It bottomed out in May 2016 at 404.
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Related stocks: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

Friday, August 10, 2018

Talkmed - Stock calls


Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/23/17 CIMB Talkmed 1.385 1.82 Add DCF
02/28/17 DMG & Partners Talkmed 1.43 2.07 Buy DCF, PER32x FY17
03/06/17 CIMB Talkmed 1.49 1.83 Add
04/26/17 DMG & Partners Talkmed 1.775 2.07 Buy DCF, PER30x FY18
04/27/17 CIMB Talkmed 1.73 1.83 Hold DCF
06/29/17 DMG & Partners Talkmed 0.645 0.73 Buy Ex-bonus 1 for 1
10/02/17 DMG & Partners Talkmed 0.585 0.69 Buy
11/08/17 DMG & Partners Talkmed 0.705 0.72 Neutral PER29x FY18
01/08/18 CIMB Talkmed 0.69 0.68 Hold DCF
02/21/18 DMG & Partners Talkmed 0.675 0.72 Neutral DCF
04/27/18 DMG & Partners Talkmed 0.69 0.7 Neutral DCF, PER29x FY18