Stock calls for 7 February 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/07/19	DBS Vickers	Ezion	0.05	0.06	Hold	PB0.3x FY19
02/07/19	OCBC	Far East Hospitality	0.66	0.675	Buy
02/07/19	Lim & Tan	GL Ltd	0.735	1.76	Buy	Sum of parts
02/07/19	Kim Eng	Netlink	0.785	0.93	Buy
02/07/19	Kim Eng	Starhub	1.82	2.21	Buy

This year will be a painful year for Crypto!

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/crypto-universe-may-round-pain-022846955.html

The most optimistic crypto proponent has thrown in the towel and given up on its unrealistic target for bitcoin.

Bitcoin prices won't recover to its glorious peak as more people get educated about crypto.  Please read our post below for more information.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/11/a-financial-analysis-on-initial-coin.html

The crypto developers have been trying to rectify the security and structural flaws by switching from a POW (proof of work) to POS (proof of stake) system because POW consumes too much energy resulting in energy profligacy.  However, the developers are missing out the fundamental issues of money.

Money is a derivative of the economy and its supply cannot be limited or else it will be abandoned like the gold standard because of its finite supply.  Why is this so?

Money supply has to be able to shrink or expand to manage the economic growth because of inflation and deflation.  Under normal circumstances, there is an incremental natural rate of growth in the economy because of new services and products being created which will increase the economic size.  Consequently, the money supply has to be increased for the economy to function properly.  Likewise, the money supply has to be reduced when the economy is having a recession.

If a digital monetary structure has a limited supply, it won't be able to function like what the fiat money can do.  Therefore, the cryptocurrency will never become a legitimate and real currency.

Golden Agri - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/16/18	OCBC	Golden Agri	0.39	0.37	Hold
02/28/18	CIMB	Golden Agri	0.36	0.31	Reduce	PER15x FY19
02/28/18	OCBC	Golden Agri	0.36	0.37	Hold
02/28/18	Credit Suisse	Golden Agri	0.36	0.35	Underperform
03/07/18	UOB Kay Hian	Golden Agri	0.345	0.31	Hold
03/08/18	OCBC	Golden Agri	0.36	0.37	Hold
04/06/18	CIMB	Golden Agri	0.345	0.31	Reduce	PER15x
04/13/18	DBS Vickers	Golden Agri	0.34	0.39	Not Rated
05/16/18	UOB Kay Hian	Golden Agri	0.35	0.26	Sell	PER14x FY18
05/16/18	CIMB	Golden Agri	0.35	0.31	Reduce	Sum of parts (10% discount)
05/16/18	OCBC	Golden Agri	0.35	0.34	Hold
06/21/18	UOB Kay Hian	Golden Agri	0.33	0.26	Sell
06/27/18	OCBC	Golden Agri	0.315	0.34	Hold
07/03/18	UOB Kay Hian	Golden Agri	0.305	0.26	Sell
07/11/18	OCBC	Golden Agri	0.29	0.3	Hold	PER17x FY19
08/15/18	OCBC	Golden Agri	0.28	0.26	Hold	PER17.5x FY19
08/16/18	UOB Kay Hian	Golden Agri	0.28	0.16	Sell
08/16/18	CIMB	Golden Agri	0.28	0.25	Reduce	Sum of parts (20% discount)
09/26/18	OCBC	Golden Agri	0.24	0.24	Hold	PER16x FY19
10/08/18	UOB Kay Hian	Golden Agri	0.265	0.16	Sell
10/11/18	DBS Vickers	Golden Agri	0.255	0.33	Not Rated	DCF
10/29/18	OCBC	Golden Agri	0.255	0.24	Hold
11/08/18	UOB Kay Hian	Golden Agri	0.26	0.16	Sell
11/13/18	OCBC	Golden Agri	0.245	0.24	Hold
11/14/18	UOB Kay Hian	Golden Agri	0.245	0.2	Sell	PER11x FY19
11/14/18	CIMB	Golden Agri	0.245	0.23	Reduce	Sum of parts (20% discount)
12/10/18	UOB Kay Hian	Golden Agri	0.255	0.2	Sell
01/03/19	UOB Kay Hian	Golden Agri	0.245	0.2	Sell
01/28/19	DMG & Partners	Golden Agri	0.27	0.23	Sell	Sum of parts, PER10x, cut from $0.39

GL Ltd - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/04/18	UOB Kay Hian	GL Ltd	0.865	1.19	Buy
08/27/18	Lim & Tan	GL Ltd	0.77	0	Buy
10/08/18	Lim & Tan	GL Ltd	0.775	0	Buy

Geo Energy - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/19/18	phillip	Geo Energy	0.225	0.47	Buy	PER10x
06/04/18	Amfrasers	Geo Energy	0.225	0.3	Buy	DCF, PER6x FY18
06/05/18	phillip	Geo Energy	0.225	0.41	Buy	PER10x
07/06/18	phillip	Geo Energy	0.225	0.41	Buy
08/28/18	phillip	Geo Energy	0.22	0.34	Buy	PER10x
09/07/18	phillip	Geo Energy	0.22	0.34	Buy
11/26/18	phillip	Geo Energy	0.205	0.245	Buy	PER10x FY19
12/04/18	Amfrasers	Geo Energy	0.178	0.21	Hold	DCF
01/04/19	phillip	Geo Energy	0.176	0.245	Buy

Stock calls for 4 February 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/04/19	OCBC	CapitaRetail China	1.48	1.42	Hold
02/04/19	DBS Vickers	CapitaRetail China	1.48	1.65	Buy	DCF
02/04/19	DMG & Partners	Centurion	0.405	0.41	Neutral	DCF
02/04/19	UOB Kay Hian	Frasers Hospitality Trust	0.74	0.82	Buy
02/04/19	CIMB	OUE Commercial	0.515	0.57	Hold
02/04/19	DBS Vickers	Sembcorp Industries	2.58	3.7	Buy
02/04/19	DBS Vickers	Sembcorp Marine	1.59	2.4	Buy
02/04/19	UOB Kay Hian	Singapore Post	0.965	1.04	Hold	Sum of parts
02/04/19	CIMB	Singapore Post	0.965	1.03	Hold	DCF
02/04/19	DBS Vickers	Singapore Post	0.965	0.92	Hold	DCF
02/04/19	Lim & Tan	Singapore Post	0.965	0	Hold
02/04/19	DBS Vickers	Yangzijiang	1.42	1.82	Buy

Chinese vice premier, Liu He, performed very badly as a trade negotiator.

Liu He was just like a bad student sitting in a session with his school principal.  He was so meek in front of Trump and he didn't sound confident in his short speech.  Liu He didn't even dare to correct Trump when Trump heard the wrong order of 5m tonnes per day from his mouth.  It should be 5m tonnes today!

I prefer Wang Yi.  I believe Wang Yi will perform much better than Liu He as a trade negotiator.  No wonder China is losing the bargaining power in this trade talk.  President Xi should send Wang Yi and not Liu He as the latter did very badly.

EU has become a protectionist now!

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-apos-steel-tariffs-forced-114159985.html

To prevent trade diversion, the EU has imposed steel quotas to prevent goods dumping.  This is not unexpected because we expected it and posted our analysis in July 2018.  The EU chose to impose quotas instead of tariffs.  No matter what, this is a protectionist measure.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/07/us-china-trade-war-has-started.html

Economic recession is coming!

The baltic dry index chart is showing a significant downward trajectory from its recent high of about 1800 to 645 now.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/02/baltic-dry-index-645.html

In a nutshell, the BDI is a shipping and trade index of raw materials using different types of vessels.  The BDI has a positive correlation to the world economic growth and reflects the economic conditions.  The BDI is currently having a downward trajectory which means the world trade is declining significantly recently.

Baltic dry index - 645

Today, Friday, February 01 2019, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 23 points, reaching 645 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

======================

Related stocks: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan Ocean

US rig count - 1045

HOUSTON, Feb. 1 (Xinhua) -- The number of active drilling rigs in the United States decreased by 14 to 1,045 this week, or 99 more than that this time last year, according to the weekly data released by the Baker Hughes on Friday.

The number of rigs operating in U.S. oil fields fell by 15 to 847 this week, and more than half of them were located in the Permian Basin region of western Texas and southeastern New Mexico. The number of gas drilling rigs grew by one to 198 rigs.

The Houston-based oilfield services company reported that the number of land drilling rigs decreased by 13 to 1,025. The number of inland waters drilling rigs stayed level at one rig, while the number of offshore drilling rigs fell by one to 19.

The number of directional drilling rigs decreased by two to 57, the number of horizontal drilling rigs fell by seven to 925, while the number of vertical drilling rigs decreased by five to 63.

None of the U.S. states had an increase in the active drilling rig counts. The U.S. state of Alaska and Oklahoma led the decrease with four rigs. Texas decreased by three rigs to 514.

U.S. oil prices rose on Friday. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for March delivery rose 1.47 U.S. dollars to settle at 55.26 dollars a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, while Brent crude for March contract rose 0.89 dollar to close at 62.79 dollars a barrel on the London ICE Futures Exchange.

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Related stocks: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco

Genting - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/05/18	DBS Vickers	Genting	1.34	1.51	Buy
02/07/18	CIMB	Genting	1.27	1.45	Add
02/26/18	Kim Eng	Genting	1.3	1.46	Buy	EV/Ebitda 12x FY18
02/26/18	UOB Kay Hian	Genting	1.3	1.3	Hold	EV/Ebitda10.4x FY18, Buy @ $1.15
02/26/18	DBS Vickers	Genting	1.3	1.49	Buy	DCF
02/26/18	DMG & Partners	Genting	1.3	1.34	Neutral	DCF
02/26/18	OCBC	Genting	1.3	1.45	Buy	FCFE
02/26/18	CIMB	Genting	1.3	1.49	Add	EV/Ebitda12x FY19
02/26/18	Nomura	Genting	1.3	1.52	Buy
03/05/18	CIMB	Genting	1.15	1.49	Add	EV/Ebitda12x FY19
04/05/18	UOB Kay Hian	Genting	1.03	1.3	Buy	EV/Ebitda10.4x FY18
04/06/18	CIMB	Genting	1.08	1.4	Add	EV/Ebitda11.5x FY19
04/10/18	Kim Eng	Genting	1.14	1.46	Buy	EV/Ebitda 12x FY18
05/11/18	CIMB	Genting	1.16	1.4	Add	EV/Ebitda11.5x FY19
05/11/18	UOB Kay Hian	Genting	1.16	1.38	Buy	Sum of parts, EV/Ebitda10.3x FY18
05/11/18	DBS Vickers	Genting	1.16	1.49	Buy	DCF
05/11/18	OCBC	Genting	1.16	1.45	Buy	FCFE
05/11/18	Nomura	Genting	1.16	1.52	Buy
05/14/18	DMG & Partners	Genting	1.28	1.42	Buy	DCF
06/05/18	DBS Vickers	Genting	1.26	1.49	Buy
06/08/18	CIMB	Genting	1.25	1.4	Add
07/03/18	UOB Kay Hian	Genting	1.21	1.38	Buy
07/03/18	DBS Vickers	Genting	1.21	1.49	Buy
07/23/18	Kim Eng	Genting	1.28	1.46	Buy	EV/Ebitda 12x FY18
07/26/18	CIMB	Genting	1.29	1.44	Add	EV/Ebitda11.5x FY19
08/06/18	UOB Kay Hian	Genting	1.23	1.38	Buy	EV/Ebitda10.5x FY18
08/06/18	OCBC	Genting	1.23	1.39	Buy	FCFE
08/06/18	CIMB	Genting	1.23	1.44	Add	EV/Ebitda15.5x FY19
08/07/18	DBS Vickers	Genting	1.13	1.55	Buy	DCF
10/25/18	UOB Kay Hian	Genting	0.91	1.38	Buy	EV/Ebitda10.5x FY18
11/05/18	DBS Vickers	Genting	0.945	1.55	Buy	DCF, EV/Ebitda12x FY19
11/08/18	UOB Kay Hian	Genting	0.915	1.38	Buy	EV/Ebitda10.5x FY18
11/09/18	Kim Eng	Genting	0.89	1.29	Buy	EV/Ebitda10x FY18
11/09/18	DMG & Partners	Genting	0.89	1.42	Buy
11/09/18	CIMB	Genting	0.89	1.28	Add	EV/Ebitda10x FY19
11/09/18	OCBC	Genting	0.89	1.39	Buy	FCFE
11/15/18	DMG & Partners	Genting	0.925	1.23	Buy	DCF, EV/Ebitda9x
12/14/18	DMG & Partners	Genting	1.01	1.23	Buy
01/02/19	DMG & Partners	Genting	0.975	1.23	Buy	DCF
01/15/19	Kim Eng	Genting	1.03	1.26	Buy	EV/Ebitda9x FY19
01/28/19	UOB Kay Hian	Genting	1.06	1.38	Buy	EV/Ebitda10x FY19

Fu Yu - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/16/18	DMG & Partners	Fu Yu	0.186	0.2	Neutral	DCF
06/27/18	DMG & Partners	Fu Yu	0.171	0.2	Neutral
08/15/18	DMG & Partners	Fu Yu	0.174	0.22	Buy	DCF
09/28/18	CIMB	Fu Yu	0.176	0.17	Hold	PB0.8x
11/15/18	CIMB	Fu Yu	0.17	0.17	Hold	PB0.8x
11/20/18	DMG & Partners	Fu Yu	0.182	0.23	Buy
11/27/18	UOB Kay Hian	Fu Yu	0.189	0.27	Buy	EV/Ebitda5.3x FY19
12/04/18	UOB Kay Hian	Fu Yu	0.194	0.27	Buy
12/14/18	DMG & Partners	Fu Yu	0.189	0.23	Buy
01/02/19	DMG & Partners	Fu Yu	0.19	0.23	Buy	DCF
01/04/19	UOB Kay Hian	Fu Yu	0.186	0.27	Buy	EV/Ebitda 5.3x FY19
01/15/19	CIMB	Fu Yu	0.2	0.2	Hold	PB0.9x

Frencken - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/26/18	Amfrasers	Frencken	0.67	0.72	Hold	PER12x FY18
03/07/18	Amfrasers	Frencken	0.63	0.72	Buy	PER12x FY18
05/11/18	UOB Kay Hian	Frencken	0.54	0.79	Buy

Stock calls for 1 February 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/01/19	CIMB	Comfortdelgro	2.33	2.74	Add	DCF
02/01/19	phillip	DBS	23.92	29.02	Buy
02/01/19	Kim Eng	Frasers Hospitality Trust	0.735	0.8	Buy	DDM
02/01/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Hospitality Trust	0.735	0.78	Buy
02/01/19	phillip	OCBC	11.51	13.7	Buy
02/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	Sembcorp Industries	2.59	3.2	Buy
02/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	Sembcorp Marine	1.6	1.83	Hold
02/01/19	DMG & Partners	Silverlake	0.485	0.65	Buy	DCF
02/01/19	OCBC	Starhill	0.715	0.75	Buy
02/01/19	phillip	UOB	25.19	32.52	Buy

First company to delist from SGX in 2019. More to come!

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/cityneon-to-delist-on-feb-1-9am

Goodbye Cityneon!

There will be more to come!

This is because SGX is fast becoming a derivatives market instead of a securities market.  As the securities' liquidity dwindles, companies will become less interested to list on SGX as a low liquidity market always gives a low valuation for the IPOs and listed companies.

Indonesia has declared overtly that it wants to snag Singapore transshipment businesses.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/indonesia-eyes-60-billion-investment-singapore-backyard-025404112.html

Indonesia is investing 60B to boost its Batam's infrastructure and size to snag SG's transshipment businesses.

Sigh! We are really under-siege from Malaysia and Indonesia.

What can we do to protect ourselves? We need to develop a cozy relationship with China for our own economic benefits or else we'll run into economic repressions caused by our unfriendly neighbours.

US and China proclaim major progress in trade talk but nothing is revealed.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/trump-says-us-china-trade-talks-going-well-150055209.html

Both countries (US & China) try to sugarcoat their trade talk communiques by stating major progress.  However, both countries have not released the progress details.  This makes me wonder whether there is real progress between the 2 countries or not.  Maybe this is a delaying tactic to appease the financial markets and to arrange for the 2 presidents to meet to renegotiate the deal.

The truth behind the ECRL cancellation.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/china-cccc-ecrl-malaysia-rail-project-negotiate-cost-20-billion-11189898

The china construction cost for the ECRL was already the lowest under the OBR initiative because of China's expertise and technology.  There is no way another country can build the ECRL at a much lower cost than China.  Therefore, the Malaysian government is disseminating fake news about China offering close to 50% discount for the ECRL construction.  If China really did offer close to 50% discount, there would be no reason for Malaysia not to accept it.

The real reason the Malaysian government cancelled the ECRL project was that China bypassed the Malaysia government and paid directly to its construction firms offshore.  The fund never reached the Malaysian shore because China knew that the fund would go missing and its construction firms would not be able to receive the full construction costs.

The Chinese know how corrupted the Malaysian government officials are and refuse to transfer the fund to Malaysia but choose to pay directly offshore.  This offshore payment arrangement annoys Mahathir because he and his lackeys cannot touch the fund at all.

Frasers Property - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/18	Lim & Tan	Frasers Property	2.08	0	Buy
02/12/18	CIMB	Frasers Property	1.96	2.4	Add	RNAV (30% discount)
02/12/18	DBS Vickers	Frasers Property	1.96	2.35	Buy	RNAV (20% discount), PB1x
04/13/18	DBS Vickers	Frasers Property	1.96	2.35	Buy
05/11/18	CIMB	Frasers Property	1.95	2.4	Add
07/06/18	DBS Vickers	Frasers Property	1.67	2.35	Buy
07/09/18	DBS Vickers	Frasers Property	1.58	1.9	Buy	RNAV (35% discount)
08/13/18	DBS Vickers	Frasers Property	1.71	1.98	Buy	RNAV (35% discount)
08/13/18	CIMB	Frasers Property	1.71	2.02	Add	RNAV (35% discount)
11/12/18	CIMB	Frasers Property	1.62	2.08	Add	RNAV (35% discount)
11/13/18	DBS Vickers	Frasers Property	1.63	1.98	Buy	RNAV (35% discount)
01/17/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Property	1.74	1.98	Buy	RNAV (35% discount)