Public distrust is eroding our society.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/man-calls-improvement-emergency-response-092012100.html

Public distrust is eroding our society and causing residents to become apathy.

I use the word residents because we have a lot of foreigners in SG now.  Therefore, those who don't render help in public may not be Singaporeans.  Anyway, it doesn't pay to be a Samaritan in SG (read the post below).

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/01/it-doesnt-pay-to-be-samaritan-in.html

Central banks are adding gold to their reserves.

https://www.businessinsider.sg/gold-china-buying-spree-continues-as-central-banks-boost-demand-2019-4/

Central banks are adding gold to their reserves!

As gold is a non-yielding asset, it makes us wonder why the central banks around the world are adding gold to their reserves.  The traditional rationale is gold is a store of value and also a safe haven.  Therefore, the central banks' action is telling us that something is not right in the world economy.

Always watch what the central banks are doing and not what they're saying.  Seeing is believing!

United Engineers - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/02/18	CIMB	United Engineers	2.61	2.94	Add	RNAV (15% discount)
05/08/18	CIMB	United Engineers	2.67	2.94	Add	RNAV (15% discount)

Uni-Asia - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/16/18	Amfrasers	Uni-Asia	1.45	1.81	Buy	Sum of parts, PB0.5x FY18, PER10x FY18
05/22/18	Amfrasers	Uni-Asia	1.4	1.81	Buy	Sum of parts, PB0.5x FY18, PER10x FY18
06/06/18	Amfrasers	Uni-Asia	1.41	2	Buy	Sum of parts, PB0.55x FY18, PER11x FY18
08/23/18	Tayrona	Uni-Asia	1.38	1.99	Overweight	PB0.5x
03/14/19	Amfrasers	Uni-Asia	1.2	2.07	Buy	Sum of parts, PB0.6x FY19, PER9.5x FY19

UMS - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/01/18	DBS Vickers	UMS	1.16	1.37	Buy	PER12x FY18
03/01/18	CIMB	UMS	1.16	1.31	Add	PB2.95x FY18
04/03/18	DBS Vickers	UMS	1.13	1.37	Buy
05/14/18	DBS Vickers	UMS	1.04	1.37	Buy	PER12x FY19
05/15/18	CIMB	UMS	1.07	1.21	Add	PB2.81x
08/15/18	CIMB	UMS	0.79	1.21	Add	PB2.82x
08/15/18	DBS Vickers	UMS	0.79	1.01	Buy	PER10x FY19
08/28/18	DBS Vickers	UMS	0.825	0.86	Hold	PER10x FY19
11/14/18	CIMB	UMS	0.715	0.75	Hold	PB1.72x
11/14/18	DBS Vickers	UMS	0.715	0.55	Fully Valued	PER8x FY19
02/26/19	DBS Vickers	UMS	0.71	0.55	Fully Valued	PER8x FY19
02/28/19	CIMB	UMS	0.74	0.62	Reduce	PB1.37x CY19

Stock calls for 8 April 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/08/19	UOB Kay Hian	Bumitama	0.725	0.81	Buy
04/08/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.47	1.7	Buy
04/08/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Property	1.81	1.98	Buy
04/08/19	Amfrasers	Keppel DC Reit	1.47	1.62	Buy	DDM
04/08/19	UOB Kay Hian	Koufu	0.805	0.95	Buy
04/08/19	CIMB	Singapore Post	1.03	1.2	Add	DCF, PER18.2x FY21
04/08/19	Kim Eng	SPH Reit	1.06	1.05	Hold	DDM
04/08/19	CIMB	SPH Reit	1.06	1.08	Hold	DDM
04/08/19	OCBC	SPH Reit	1.06	1	Hold
04/08/19	DBS Vickers	SPH Reit	1.06	1.15	Buy	DCF
04/08/19	UOB Kay Hian	Wilmar	3.48	3.9	Buy

USA is gearing up for USD depreciation. - Part 3

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-urges-fed-lower-u-interest-rates-151125758--business.html

We've stated previously that the US had to depreciate its USD to deflate its debt pressure.  The latest statistics from IIF showed that the total US debt had exceeded US$68T.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/omg-total-us-debt-has-exceeded-us68t.html

I think Trump is really getting antsy and is pressurizing FED to lower interest rates now.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/usa-is-gearing-up-for-usd-depreciation.html

I've learnt in life that it is better to believe in what people do than what people say and this is especially true in economics.  After all, seeing is believing, isn't it?

The FED has changed its hawkish stance to a super-dovish stance for this year and indicated that there won't be any rate hike in 2019.  This is a crystal clear signal that the US economy is slowing down despite Trump saying that the US economy is strong.

US has proven that India is a liar. Hahaha!

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/report-says-u-count-shows-no-pakistan-f-065958102--finance.html

India proclaimed that it shot down Pakistan F16 but the US had verified with a stock count that Pakistan didn't lose any F16.

India has no credibility at all!

Baltic dry index - 711

Today, Friday, April 05 2019, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 12 points, reaching 711 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

=====================

Related stocks: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 1025

The US drilling rig count climbed 19 units to reach 1,025 rigs working for the week ended Apr. 5, according to Baker Hughes data. The count is up 22 units from the 1,003 rigs working this time a year ago.

===========================

Related stocks: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

The US economy has flipped and fissures have appeared in some economic data.

Let's suss out the health of the US economy by understanding first how the real economy actually works.

The real economy works in the following ways:

Inflation/Deflation ---->> Monetary policy ----->> Economic activities ----->> Country's growth

The aforesaid process is depicted in layman terminology for easy understanding.  When inflation or deflation is detected, the government will tweak its monetary policy accordingly and this will impact the economic activities to achieve the desired country's growth.

In economic terminology, the process is depicted as follow:

CPI/PPI ----->> M1-M2 spread/3m-10y yield spread ----->> PMI ----->> GDP

Since PMI is a leading indicator of the GDP, we will focus on dissecting the PMI to extrapolate US future GDP growth.

I've charted the manufacturing PMI process for easy reference as follow:

The headline manufacturing PMI is made up of 5 sub-indices: New orders, output, employment, suppliers' deliveries and stocks of purchases (inventories).

IHS PMI (USA)

The IHS/Markit US Manufacturing PMI was revised slightly lower to 52.4 in March of 2019 from a preliminary of 52.5 and 53 in February. The reading pointed to the slowest growth in factory activity since June of 2017, amid softer increases in output and new orders. Yet, Q1 average was the lowest since Q3 2017. 

The IHS PMI (USA) is showing continuous declines but we will focus on ISM which is the official PMI.

ISM PMI (USA)

The ISM Manufacturing PMI in the US rose to 55.3 in March of 2019 from 54.2 in February which was the lowest reading since November of 2016. It compares with market expectations of 54.5. Faster increases were seen for new orders, production and employment.

Since the new orders are made up of new export order and local order, the US internal(local) order is growing at (1.9% - -1.1%) = +3%. Wow! At first glance, it looks like the US is having tremendous growth since the PMI is at 55.3% and the new local order is growing at 3%.

However, if we delve deeper and look at other sub-indices, we can spot some discrepancy.  We will also try to figure out the cause for the local order to grow so well.

The new orders are growing at +1.9% but the production is only growing at half the rate of +1%.  Why?  This is because the customers' inventories have increased due to the net effect of neutral growth in orders (1.9% + -1.9% = 0).  The lower production growth (1% compared to new order 1.9%) also impacts the supplier's deliveries with the growth of -0.7%.  The overall phenomenon is a reflection of weak retail sales and durable goods orders.

US retail sales

US retail trade fell by 0.2 percent from a month earlier in February 2019, following an upwardly revised 0.7 percent growth in January and missing market expectations of a 0.3 percent gain. Sales fell for furniture, clothing, food and electronics and appliances, as well as building materials and gardening equipment. Retail Sales MoM in the United States averaged 0.35 percent from 1992 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 6.70 percent in October of 2001 and a record low of -3.90 percent in November of 2008.

The weak retail sales figure deserves some attention because the durable goods purchases are falling.  The consumers and corporations are cutting back on durable goods purchases because of the bleak economic outlook.

Durable goods orders

New orders for US manufactured durable goods slumped 1.6 percent from a month earlier in February 2019, following a downwardly revised 0.1 percent gain in January and compared to market expectations of a 1.8 percent fall. Transportation equipment drove the decrease. Durable Goods Orders in the United States averaged 0.33 percent from 1992 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 23.50 percent in July of 2014 and a record low of -19 percent in August of 2014.

Durable goods orders ex-defence

New orders for US manufactured durable goods excluding defense fell 1.9 percent from a month earlier in February 2019, after a downwardly revised 0.4 percent growth in January and missing market expectations of a 0.1 percent gain. It is the largest decrease since January 2018. Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense in the United States averaged 0.32 percent from 1992 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 26 percent in July of 2014 and a record low of -19.70 percent in August of 2014.

US car sales

US car sales also fall by 2.5%.

The whole picture is telling us that defense spending is helping to hold up the economy but the private sector spending is declining.  Therefore, we are expecting the employment figure in the PMI to fall alongside the supplier's deliveries in the future because of the slowdown.  The private sector slowdown is also causing the imports and inventories to decline in the PMI.

The headline PMI may look good but the underlying sub-indices are showing otherwise.

In conclusion, we are expecting the US GDP to decline in the future unless the sub-indices in the PMI start to improve.  

Is US economy as strong as Trump purported?

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/trump-says-us-economy-strong-despite--destructive-actions--by-fed-11413214

We'll give you an update later with a post titled "The US economy has flipped and fissures have appeared in some economic data".

If the US economy is as strong as Trump purported, he won't be in such a hurry to conclude the US-China deal in 4 weeks.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/trump-says-us-china-trade-deal-could-be-announced-in-about-four-11414694

UG Healthcare - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/24/18	DMG & Partners	UG Healthcare	0.198	0.32	Buy	PER14x FY19
05/14/18	DMG & Partners	UG Healthcare	0.205	0.32	Buy	PER14x FY19
08/24/18	Lim & Tan	UG Healthcare	0.23	0	Buy
08/27/18	DMG & Partners	UG Healthcare	0.22	0.32	Buy	PER12x FY19
11/14/18	DMG & Partners	UG Healthcare	0.215	0.32	Buy	PER12x FY19
03/11/19	DMG & Partners	UG Healthcare	0.205	0.32	Buy	PER10x FY20

Tuan Sing - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/15/18	UOB Kay Hian	Tuan Sing	0.49	0.71	Buy
01/29/18	UOB Kay Hian	Tuan Sing	0.48	0.71	Buy	Sum of parts
01/29/19	Amfrasers	Tuan Sing	0.395	0.46	Not Rated	RNAV (50% discount)

Trendlines - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/28/18	Tayona	Trendlines	0.119	0.225	Overweight

Stock calls for 5 April 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/05/19	DMG & Partners	Best World	2.02	2.95	Buy
04/05/19	DMG & Partners	Breadtalk	0.87	0.81	Neutral
04/05/19	DMG & Partners	Dairy Farm	8.14	8.25	Buy
04/05/19	DMG & Partners	Delfi	1.3	1.68	Buy
04/05/19	DBS Vickers	Ezion	0.043	0.05	Hold	PB1.4x
04/05/19	DMG & Partners	Food Empire	0.56	0.69	Buy
04/05/19	DMG & Partners	Japan Foods	0.435	0.45	Neutral
04/05/19	DMG & Partners	Kimly	0.24	0.24	Neutral
04/05/19	DMG & Partners	Mindchamps	0.655	0.87	Buy
04/05/19	DMG & Partners	SGX	7.42	8.1	Buy	PER23x FY20
04/05/19	DMG & Partners	Sheng Siong	1.04	1.25	Buy
04/05/19	DMG & Partners	Thai Beverage	0.825	0.92	Buy
04/05/19	CIMB	Yongnam	0.186	0.33	Add	PB0.7x FY19

Omg! The total US debt has exceeded US$68T!

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/chart-day-mountain-us-debt-215521744.html

The total US debt has exceeded US$68T which is close to 330% of US GDP.

How long do you think this debt play can carry on?

The US media has highlighted Italy's economic situation after JPM's bearish reports

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/euro-2-7-trillion-italy-040116651.html

I can sense something is brewing.  The US media is starting to highlight Italy's economic problem now after JPM's bearish Lira and Euro reports.  The duel between the EU and the US has begun.

After we reported AFC might be replaying in the Middle East and Europe, the US financial firms and media had upped their ante with their bearish outlooks on Europe.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/1997-asian-financial-crisis-is.html

The EU must come up with a bigger TLTRO this year or Italy will be in deep trouble that will pull the whole Europe down into the abyss.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/what-is-targeted-longer-term.html

Top Glove - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/20/18	Lim & Tan	Top Glove	3.88	0	Hold
06/22/18	Kim Eng	Top Glove	3.81	4.4	Buy
07/11/18	Kim Eng	Top Glove	3.4	4.36	Hold	Ringgit target $12.90, PER30x FY19
03/11/19	Kim Eng	Top Glove	1.5	1.53	Hold	Ringgit target $4.60, PER24x CY20

Tianjin Zhongxin - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/03/18	UOB Kay Hian	Tianjin Zhongxin	0.945	1.52	Buy	PER14.1x FY18
04/02/18	UOB Kay Hian	Tianjin Zhongxin	0.92	1.66	Buy	PER14.1x FY18
04/30/18	UOB Kay Hian	Tianjin Zhongxin	1.01	1.72	Buy	PER14.1x FY18
05/21/18	UOB Kay Hian	Tianjin Zhongxin	1.2	1.72	Buy	PER14.1x FY18
06/04/18	UOB Kay Hian	Tianjin Zhongxin	1.21	1.72	Buy
07/13/18	UOB Kay Hian	Tianjin Zhongxin	1.12	1.72	Buy
09/14/18	UOB Kay Hian	Tianjin Zhongxin	0.915	1.59	Buy
10/31/18	UOB Kay Hian	Tianjin Zhongxin	0.895	1.59	Buy	PER14.1x FY18
04/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	Tianjin Zhongxin	0.915	1.7	Buy	PER13.6x FY19