https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/usd-is-likely-to-depreciate-soon-why.html
https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/usa-is-gearing-up-for-usd-depreciation.html
The USD was supposed to be depreciating as Trump wanted it to be lower. The USD did depreciate for a short while before rebounding again. What the hell was going on? Well, the US FED is causing the USD to appreciate with its rising rates. Therefore, it looks like the FED and Trump are at loggerheads now.
The USD index is around 98 now compared to below 96 in March 2019.
The USD value is affected by interest rates. The US Fed manages the US economy by setting an interest rate bandwidth which is currently at 2.25-2.5%.
There are 4 interest rates that we need to familiarize ourselves with:
Interest on required reserves (iorr) : 2.4% now (Max limit is 2.5% and this sets the upper bandwidth)
The bank required capital ratio fund has to be deposited with the Fed which will yield a FED interest rate of 2.4%.
Effective federal funds rate (effr): 2.44% now (This has been rising in April 2019).
The US bank has to pay 2.44% interest rate to the Fed when it wants to borrow money. The Fed has been raising this interest rate in April 2019 which is signifying a reluctance to flood the monetary system with cheap money. This is the proximate cause of the recent USD appreciation because the Fed is sending a subtle message which is the exact opposite of Trump's intention.
Interest rate on excess reserves (ioer) : 2.4% now (This is what the Fed will pay when the US bank deposits its excess cash with the Fed).
Overnight reverse repurchase rate (on rrp) : 2.25% now (This is basically a 1-day sell and buy-back scheme conducted by the Fed and this sets the lower bandwidth). In short, this is the Fed 1-day IOU and the Fed pays 2.25% interest rate.
As we can see, there is a premium difference between the effr (2.44%) and ioer (2.4%). This premium difference is depicting a monetary tightening condition which also helps to explain the USD appreciation.
Friday, April 26, 2019
The semiconductor is facing a collapse. - Part 3
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/intel-slashes-forecasts-amid-decline-204616825.html
https://kfgo.com/news/articles/2019/apr/23/texas-instruments-revenue-profit-beat-estimates-shares-rise/
The semiconductor titans are reporting weaker sales forecasts due to poor China demand. Therefore, 2019 won't be a bumper year for the semiconductor industry. However, Micron Tech is still being extremely optimistic and fudging its numbers when it has more than 50% China sales.
https://www.investors.com/news/technology/micron-stock-rallies-second-half-2019-recovery/
We've stated the global semiconductor slowdown in October 2018.
https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/the-semiconductor-is-facing-collapse.html
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/10/the-global-semiconductor-slowdown-is.html
https://kfgo.com/news/articles/2019/apr/23/texas-instruments-revenue-profit-beat-estimates-shares-rise/
The semiconductor titans are reporting weaker sales forecasts due to poor China demand. Therefore, 2019 won't be a bumper year for the semiconductor industry. However, Micron Tech is still being extremely optimistic and fudging its numbers when it has more than 50% China sales.
https://www.investors.com/news/technology/micron-stock-rallies-second-half-2019-recovery/
We've stated the global semiconductor slowdown in October 2018.
https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/the-semiconductor-is-facing-collapse.html
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/10/the-global-semiconductor-slowdown-is.html
Thursday, April 25, 2019
CapitaRetail China - Stock calls
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
02/04/19 | OCBC | CapitaRetail China | 1.48 | 1.42 | Hold | |
02/04/19 | DBS Vickers | CapitaRetail China | 1.48 | 1.65 | Buy | DCF |
02/15/19 | Phillip | CapitaRetail China | 1.39 | 1.66 | Accumulate | |
03/21/19 | Amfrasers | CapitaRetail China | 1.52 | 1.61 | Buy | DDM |
04/03/19 | DBS Vickers | CapitaRetail China | 1.57 | 1.65 | Buy |
Capitamall Trust - Stock calls
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
01/22/19 | CIMB | Capitamall Trust | 2.26 | 2.29 | Hold | DDM |
01/23/19 | OCBC | Capitamall Trust | 2.27 | 2.12 | Hold | |
01/24/19 | Phillip | Capitamall Trust | 2.31 | 2.09 | Neutral | DDM, PB1.06x FY19 |
01/24/19 | Kim Eng | Capitamall Trust | 2.31 | 2.25 | Hold | DDM |
01/24/19 | OCBC | Capitamall Trust | 2.31 | 2.25 | Hold | |
01/24/19 | DBS Vickers | Capitamall Trust | 2.31 | 2.44 | Buy | |
01/28/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Capitamall Trust | 2.36 | 2.02 | Hold | Buy @ $1.84 |
02/15/19 | Phillip | Capitamall Trust | 2.38 | 2.09 | Neutral | |
02/28/19 | Kim Eng | Capitamall Trust | 2.42 | 2.25 | Hold | |
03/14/19 | DMG & Partners | Capitamall Trust | 2.39 | 2.2 | Neutral | DDM |
04/04/19 | Kim Eng | Capitamall Trust | 2.41 | 2.4 | Hold | |
04/24/19 | OCBC | Capitamall Trust | 2.32 | 2.25 | Hold | |
04/25/19 | DBS Vickers | Capitamall Trust | 2.36 | 2.55 | Buy | |
04/25/19 | OCBC | Capitamall Trust | 2.36 | 2.32 | Hold |
Capitaland - Stock calls
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
01/02/19 | DMG & Partners | Capitaland | 3.11 | 4 | Buy | |
01/03/19 | OCBC | Capitaland | 3.07 | 3.96 | Buy | RNAV (20% discount) |
01/07/19 | CIMB | Capitaland | 3.06 | 3.55 | Add | RNAV (35% discount) |
01/15/19 | DBS Vickers | Capitaland | 3.27 | 3.62 | Buy | |
01/15/19 | Phillip | Capitaland | 3.27 | 4 | Accumulate | RNAV (20% discount), PB0.75x FY18 |
02/20/19 | Lim & Tan | Capitaland | 3.39 | 0 | Buy | |
02/21/19 | OCBC | Capitaland | 3.43 | 3.98 | Buy | RNAV |
02/21/19 | Phillip | Capitaland | 3.43 | 4 | Accumulate | PB0.75x FY19 |
02/21/19 | CIMB | Capitaland | 3.43 | 3.56 | Add | RNAV (35% discount) |
02/21/19 | DBS Vickers | Capitaland | 3.43 | 3.62 | Buy | |
03/18/19 | OCBC | Capitaland | 3.44 | 3.98 | Buy | |
03/21/19 | Lim & Tan | Capitaland | 3.47 | 0 | Buy | |
03/26/19 | CIMB | Capitaland | 3.44 | 3.56 | Add | |
04/01/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Capitaland | 3.65 | 4.4 | Buy | |
04/02/19 | Macquarie | Capitaland | 3.69 | 3.9 | Outperform | RNAV |
04/02/19 | OCBC | Capitaland | 3.69 | 3.98 | Buy |
Stock calls for 25 April 2019
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
04/25/19 | Kim Eng | AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit | 1.42 | 1.5 | Buy | |
04/25/19 | DBS Vickers | AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit | 1.42 | 1.5 | Buy | |
04/25/19 | DBS Vickers | Capitamall Trust | 2.36 | 2.55 | Buy | |
04/25/19 | OCBC | Capitamall Trust | 2.36 | 2.32 | Hold | |
04/25/19 | CIMB | ESR-Reit | 0.51 | 0.6 | Add | DDM |
04/25/19 | OCBC | ESR-Reit | 0.51 | 0.565 | Buy | |
04/25/19 | DMG & Partners | Frasers Centrepoint Trust | 2.36 | 2.19 | Neutral | DDM |
04/25/19 | OCBC | Frasers Centrepoint Trust | 2.36 | 2.61 | Buy | DDM |
04/25/19 | CIMB | Keppel Reit | 1.23 | 1.34 | Add | DDM |
04/25/19 | Lim & Tan | Manulife US Reit | 0.87 | 0 | Hold | |
04/25/19 | DBS Vickers | Mapletree Commercial | 1.89 | 2 | Buy | |
04/25/19 | UOB Kay Hian | ST Engineering | 3.9 | 4.7 | Buy | EV/Invested capital basis |
04/25/19 | DMG & Partners | ST Engineering | 3.9 | 4.1 | Buy | |
04/25/19 | Kim Eng | ST Engineering | 3.9 | 4.3 | Buy | DCF |
04/25/19 | OCBC | Suntec Reit | 1.89 | 1.83 | Hold | DDM |
SGX is losing its IPO shine.
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/thailand-set-to-be-southeast-asia-s-hottest-ipo-market-with-us-11476512
Vietnam overtook SGX last year.
Look like Thailand will overtake SGX this year too. Sigh! SGX is losing its shine under the helm of an ex-investment banker.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/12/sgx-has-lost-its-ipo-crown-jewel-status.html
Vietnam overtook SGX last year.
Look like Thailand will overtake SGX this year too. Sigh! SGX is losing its shine under the helm of an ex-investment banker.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/12/sgx-has-lost-its-ipo-crown-jewel-status.html
Wednesday, April 24, 2019
CapitaCommercial - Stock calls
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
01/04/19 | Phillip | CapitaCommercial | 1.75 | 1.9 | Accumulate | |
01/14/19 | UOB Kay Hian | CapitaCommercial | 1.82 | 2.11 | Buy | DDM |
01/24/19 | OCBC | CapitaCommercial | 1.83 | 1.68 | Hold | |
01/25/19 | UOB Kay Hian | CapitaCommercial | 1.85 | 2.16 | Buy | DDM |
01/25/19 | DMG & Partners | CapitaCommercial | 1.85 | 1.86 | Neutral | DDM |
01/25/19 | DBS Vickers | CapitaCommercial | 1.85 | 2 | Buy | DCF |
01/25/19 | Lim & Tan | CapitaCommercial | 1.85 | 0 | Hold | |
01/28/19 | OCBC | CapitaCommercial | 1.9 | 1.83 | Hold | |
01/28/19 | CIMB | CapitaCommercial | 1.9 | 1.94 | Add | |
02/15/19 | Phillip | CapitaCommercial | 1.86 | 1.93 | Accumulate | |
03/18/19 | DMG & Partners | CapitaCommercial | 1.98 | 1.86 | Neutral | |
03/26/19 | UOB Kay Hian | CapitaCommercial | 1.92 | 2.16 | Buy | |
04/22/19 | Phillip | CapitaCommercial | 1.93 | 1.93 | Neutral | DDM, PB1.05x |
04/22/19 | DMG & Partners | CapitaCommercial | 1.93 | 1.86 | Neutral | DDM |
04/22/19 | OCBC | CapitaCommercial | 1.93 | 1.88 | Hold | |
04/22/19 | CIMB | CapitaCommercial | 1.93 | 2.03 | Add | DDM |
04/22/19 | UOB Kay Hian | CapitaCommercial | 1.93 | 2.16 | Buy | |
04/22/19 | DBS Vickers | CapitaCommercial | 1.93 | 2.1 | Buy | DCF |
04/22/19 | Lim & Tan | CapitaCommercial | 1.93 | 0 | Hold |
Cache Logistics - Stock calls
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
01/28/19 | phillip | Cache Logistics | 0.75 | 0.75 | Neutral | DDM, PB1.14x FY19 |
01/28/19 | DBS Vickers | Cache Logistics | 0.75 | 0.75 | Hold | DCF |
01/28/19 | OCBC | Cache Logistics | 0.75 | 0.76 | Hold | |
01/28/19 | DMG & Partners | Cache Logistics | 0.75 | 0.81 | Buy | DDM |
01/28/19 | CIMB | Cache Logistics | 0.75 | 0.74 | Hold | |
01/28/19 | Kim Eng | Cache Logistics | 0.75 | 0.85 | Buy | |
02/15/19 | phillip | Cache Logistics | 0.71 | 0.75 | Neutral | |
03/18/19 | DMG & Partners | Cache Logistics | 0.72 | 0.81 | Buy | |
04/18/19 | OCBC | Cache Logistics | 0.72 | 0.7 | Hold |
Bumitama - Stock calls
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
01/03/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Bumitama | 0.67 | 0.81 | Buy | |
02/12/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Bumitama | 0.685 | 0.81 | Buy | PER11x FY19 |
02/21/19 | Kim Eng | Bumitama | 0.69 | 0.96 | Buy | |
02/26/19 | DMG & Partners | Bumitama | 0.67 | 0.67 | Neutral | PER11x FY19 |
02/27/19 | Kim Eng | Bumitama | 0.675 | 0.97 | Buy | PER13x FY19 |
02/28/19 | DBS Vickers | Bumitama | 0.665 | 0.85 | Buy | DCF, PER13.9x FY19 |
04/08/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Bumitama | 0.725 | 0.81 | Buy |
Stock calls for 24 April 2019
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
04/24/19 | OCBC | Capitamall Trust | 2.32 | 2.25 | Hold | |
04/24/19 | Lim & Tan | Frasers Centrepoint Trust | 2.36 | 0 | Buy | |
04/24/19 | DMG & Partners | Frasers Commercial Trust | 1.49 | 1.5 | Neutral | DDM |
04/24/19 | OCBC | Frasers Commercial Trust | 1.49 | 1.58 | Buy | |
04/24/19 | CIMB | Frasers Commercial Trust | 1.49 | 1.5 | Hold | DDM |
04/24/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Keppel Reit | 1.21 | 1.37 | Buy | DDM |
04/24/19 | DBS Vickers | Keppel Reit | 1.21 | 1.4 | Buy | DCF |
04/24/19 | OCBC | Mapletree Commercial | 1.84 | 1.85 | Hold | |
04/24/19 | UOB Kay Hian | OCBC | 11.83 | 14.12 | Buy | GGM |
04/24/19 | DBS Vickers | Perennial Reit | 0.65 | 0.83 | Buy | RNAV (55% discount) |
04/24/19 | OCBC | Suntec Reit | 1.86 | 1.84 | Hold | |
04/24/19 | DMG & Partners | UOB | 26.99 | 30.8 | Buy | PB1.29x FY20 |
Bonitas Research: Best World is a fraud!
https://www.bonitasresearch.com/company/best_world/
Bonitas Research has just issued a fraud report on Best World citing its Chinese sales are fudged.
The share price is tumbling right now.
Bonitas Research has just issued a fraud report on Best World citing its Chinese sales are fudged.
The share price is tumbling right now.
Tuesday, April 23, 2019
Breadtalk - Stock calls
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
02/21/19 | DBS Vickers | Breadtalk | 0.88 | 0.92 | Hold | Sum of parts |
02/21/19 | DMG & Partners | Breadtalk | 0.88 | 0.81 | Neutral | Sum of parts |
04/05/19 | DMG & Partners | Breadtalk | 0.87 | 0.81 | Neutral |
Biolidics - Stock calls
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
03/27/19 | CIMB | Biolidics | 0.27 | 0.32 | Add | EV/Sales 12x |
Best World - Stock calls
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
02/28/19 | DMG & Partners | Best World | 2.56 | 2.95 | Buy | DCF & PER18x |
02/28/19 | CIMB | Best World | 2.56 | 2.43 | Reduce | PER14.9x CY20 |
04/05/19 | DMG & Partners | Best World | 2.02 | 2.95 | Buy | |
04/16/19 | CLSA | Best World | 1.77 | 1.75 | Sell | Up from $1.29 |
Stock calls for 23 April 2019
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
04/23/19 | Kim Eng | OCBC | 11.78 | 10.73 | Hold | |
04/23/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Overseas Edu | 0.33 | 0.46 | Buy | EV/Ebitda10.4x |
Monday, April 22, 2019
Banyan Tree - Stock calls
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
03/11/19 | phillip | Banyan Tree | 0.57 | 0.76 | Accumulate | Sum of parts, PB0.72x FY19 |
Avi-Tech - Stock calls
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
01/07/19 | DMG & Partners | Avi-Tech | 0.3 | 0.34 | Neutral | |
02/14/19 | DMG & Partners | Avi-Tech | 0.29 | 0.3 | Neutral | DCF |
03/19/19 | DMG & Partners | Avi-Tech | 0.29 | 0.3 | Neutral |
Ascendas India Trust - Stock calls
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
01/25/19 | Jefferies | Ascendas India Trust | 1.08 | 1.2 | Buy | |
01/28/19 | DBS Vickers | Ascendas India Trust | 1.08 | 1.25 | Buy | DDM |
02/08/19 | DBS Vickers | Ascendas India Trust | 1.13 | 1.25 | Buy |
Stock calls for 22 April 2019
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
04/22/19 | Phillip | CapitaCommercial | 1.93 | 1.93 | Neutral | DDM, PB1.05x |
04/22/19 | DMG & Partners | CapitaCommercial | 1.93 | 1.86 | Neutral | DDM |
04/22/19 | OCBC | CapitaCommercial | 1.93 | 1.88 | Hold | |
04/22/19 | CIMB | CapitaCommercial | 1.93 | 2.03 | Add | DDM |
04/22/19 | UOB Kay Hian | CapitaCommercial | 1.93 | 2.16 | Buy | |
04/22/19 | DBS Vickers | CapitaCommercial | 1.93 | 2.1 | Buy | DCF |
04/22/19 | Lim & Tan | CapitaCommercial | 1.93 | 0 | Hold | |
04/22/19 | UOB Kay Hian | DBS | 27.4 | 30.3 | Buy | GGM |
04/22/19 | UOB Kay Hian | First Resources | 1.85 | 1.85 | Hold | |
04/22/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Golden Agri | 0.295 | 0.21 | Sell | |
04/22/19 | OCBC | Keppel Corp | 6.74 | 7.83 | Buy | |
04/22/19 | Lim & Tan | Keppel Corp | 6.74 | 0 | Hold | |
04/22/19 | DMG & Partners | OCBC | 11.77 | 12.2 | Neutral | PB1.12x FY20, Up from $10.96 |
04/22/19 | OCBC | Soilbuild Reit | 0.63 | 0.62 | Hold | |
04/22/19 | DBS Vickers | Soilbuild Reit | 0.63 | 0.63 | Hold | DCF |
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