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Saturday, May 4, 2019

Friday, May 3, 2019

Dasin Retail - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/15/19 phillip Dasin Retail 0.885 0.95 Accumulate DDM
02/28/19 phillip Dasin Retail 0.885 0.94 Accumulate DDM, PB0.64x

Dairy Farm - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/04/19 DMG & Partners Dairy Farm 8.57 8.64 Neutral DCF
03/04/19 DBS Vickers Dairy Farm 8.57 8.44 Hold Sum of parts
03/06/19 CIMB Dairy Farm 8.33 8.54 Hold PER23.5x FY20
03/20/19 DMG & Partners Dairy Farm 7.41 8.25 Buy DCF
04/05/19 DMG & Partners Dairy Farm 8.14 8.25 Buy

CSE Global - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/04/19 UOB Kay Hian CSE Global 0.385 0.59 Buy
01/07/19 DMG & Partners CSE Global 0.395 0.59 Buy DCF
01/11/19 Lim & Tan CSE Global 0.395 0 Buy
01/15/19 CIMB CSE Global 0.405 0.56 Add PER13.5x FY20
01/22/19 Amfrasers CSE Global 0.43 0.57 Buy
02/08/19 UOB Kay Hian CSE Global 0.455 0.59 Buy
02/22/19 DMG & Partners CSE Global 0.465 0.6 Buy DCF
02/22/19 CIMB CSE Global 0.465 0.6 Add PER13.5x FY19
02/22/19 UOB Kay Hian CSE Global 0.465 0.62 Buy
03/05/19 Amfrasers CSE Global 0.505 0.58 Buy
03/26/19 UOB Kay Hian CSE Global 0.54 0.62 Buy
03/26/19 DMG & Partners CSE Global 0.54 0.61 Buy DCF
03/26/19 CIMB CSE Global 0.54 0.6 Add
04/02/19 Lim & Tan CSE Global 0.545 0 Buy

Stock calls for 3 May 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
05/03/19 DBS Vickers ART 1.2 1.35 Buy DCF
05/03/19 OCBC Capitaland 3.54 4.04 Buy
05/03/19 CIMB Capitaland 3.54 3.56 Add
05/03/19 CIMB CDL Hospitality 1.61 1.85 Add DDM
05/03/19 DMG & Partners China Aviation Oil 1.36 1.6 Buy
05/03/19 phillip China Sunsine 1.17 1.43 Buy FCFE
05/03/19 Jefferies City Developments 9 12 Buy PB0.84x
05/03/19 Kim Eng Frasers Hospitality Trust 0.745 0.85 Buy
05/03/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Hospitality Trust 0.745 0.77 Hold DCF
05/03/19 UOB Kay Hian Japfa 0.605 0.73 Buy Sum of parts
05/03/19 DBS Vickers Japfa 0.605 0.61 Hold Sum of parts (10% discount), PER14x FY19
05/03/19 phillip OCBC 12.04 13.7 Buy
05/03/19 CIMB OUE Hospitality 0.72 0.85 Add
05/03/19 CIMB Sembcorp Marine 1.69 2.21 Add
05/03/19 phillip UOB 27.75 32.5 Buy
05/03/19 DMG & Partners UOB 27.75 30.8 Buy
05/03/19 DBS Vickers UOB 27.75 29.2 Buy
05/03/19 CIMB UOB 27.75 29 Add GGM
05/03/19 UOB Kay Hian Venture 17.4 19.01 Hold Buy @ $17

Thursday, May 2, 2019

New York Rhodium Group clears China for debt trap diplomacy.

https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/data-doesn-t-support-belt-and-road-debt-trap-claims-20190502-p51jhx.html?ref=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_source=rss_feed

The New York Rhodium group has vindicated China for using debt trap diplomacy because of the data that doesn't support the US proclamation.

This group has proven that the US is just doing fearmongering for its own political benefits.

The Australia National University senior lecturer also said that the debt trap diplomacy claim was never credible.

The US is a real trouble maker in this world!

Cromwell Reit (EUR) - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/15/19 DBS Vickers Cromwell Reit (EUR) 0.49 0.59 Buy DCF

Comfortdelgro - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/25/19 DBS Vickers Comfortdelgro 2.24 2.56 Buy
02/01/19 CIMB Comfortdelgro 2.33 2.74 Add DCF
02/08/19 UOB Kay Hian Comfortdelgro 2.36 2.59 Buy PER16.8x FY19
02/08/19 DBS Vickers Comfortdelgro 2.36 2.56 Buy
02/14/19 phillip Comfortdelgro 2.38 2.72 Accumulate DCF, PER18.5x FY19
02/14/19 UOB Kay Hian Comfortdelgro 2.38 2.66 Buy PER16.8x FY19
02/14/19 OCBC Comfortdelgro 2.38 2.38 Hold
02/14/19 DMG & Partners Comfortdelgro 2.38 2.65 Buy
02/14/19 DBS Vickers Comfortdelgro 2.38 2.57 Buy DCF & PER16x FY19
02/19/19 Amfrasers Comfortdelgro 2.41 2.77 Buy PER19x FY19
03/04/19 Kim Eng Comfortdelgro 2.43 2.45 Hold DCF
03/08/19 CIMB Comfortdelgro 2.41 2.74 Add DCF
03/22/19 UOB Kay Hian Comfortdelgro 2.54 2.77 Buy PER17.5x FY20
04/03/19 DMG & Partners Comfortdelgro 2.59 2.65 Take Profit Buy below $2.50
04/16/19 OCBC Comfortdelgro 2.63 2.63 Hold DCF
04/30/19 CIMB Comfortdelgro 2.69 2.88 Add DCF, PER18.1x FY20

CNMC - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/01/19 phillip CNMC 0.225 0.31 Buy DCF
03/12/19 Tayrona CNMC 0.21 0.31 Overweight

Stock calls for 2 May 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
05/02/19 Phillip A-Reit 3 2.88 Neutral
05/02/19 CIMB A-Reit 3 2.87 Hold DDM
05/02/19 DBS Vickers A-Reit 3 3.2 Buy DCF
05/02/19 OCBC ART 1.2 1.25 Hold
05/02/19 UOB Kay Hian ART 1.2 1.46 Buy
05/02/19 Phillip Capitaland 3.53 4 Accumulate RNAV (20% discount)
05/02/19 Lim & Tan Capitaland 3.53 0 Hold
05/02/19 DMG & Partners CDL Hospitality 1.6 1.77 Buy DDM
05/02/19 Kim Eng CDL Hospitality 1.6 1.8 Buy
05/02/19 OCBC CDL Hospitality 1.6 1.54 Hold
05/02/19 DBS Vickers CDL Hospitality 1.6 1.85 Buy
05/02/19 phillip China Aviation Oil 1.37 1.67 Buy PER11.5x FY20
05/02/19 Amfrasers DBS 28.25 27.7 Hold
05/02/19 Jefferies DBS 28.25 31.5 Buy PER13.1x FY20
05/02/19 CIMB Frasers Logistics 1.18 1.21 Hold DDM
05/02/19 DBS Vickers Indofood Agri 0.28 0.19 Accept offer offer price $0.28
05/02/19 DBS Vickers Jardine C&C 35.52 39.1 Buy Sum of parts (16% discount)
05/02/19 Amfrasers Keppel DC Reit 1.51 1.62 Buy
05/02/19 DMG & Partners Manulife US Reit 0.87 0.96 Buy DDM
05/02/19 UOB Kay Hian Mapletree Logistics 1.48 1.39 Hold Buy @ $1.26
05/02/19 OCBC Mapletree North Asia 1.36 1.4 Hold
05/02/19 DBS Vickers Mapletree North Asia 1.36 1.6 Buy DCF
05/02/19 Phillip Micro-Mechanics 1.63 1.63 Neutral PER15x FY20
05/02/19 DMG & Partners Moya Asia 0.081 0.095 Buy
05/02/19 DBS Vickers Oxley 0.325 0.68 Buy
05/02/19 UOB Kay Hian Parkway Life 2.89 3.25 Buy
05/02/19 phillip Raffles Medical 1.08 1.09 Neutral DCF
05/02/19 DBS Vickers Raffles Medical 1.08 1.12 Hold Sum of parts
05/02/19 phillip Sheng Siong 1.03 1.3 Buy PER25x
05/02/19 UOB Kay Hian Tianjin Zhongxin 0.985 1.7 Buy
05/02/19 Lim & Tan Venture 16.97 0 Buy on weakness
05/02/19 UOB Kay Hian Wilmar 3.64 3.9 Buy
05/02/19 CIMB Yangzijiang 1.57 1.61 Hold Sum of parts
05/02/19 OCBC Yangzijiang 1.57 1.45 Hold Sum of parts
05/02/19 DBS Vickers Yangzijiang 1.57 1.82 Buy Sum of parts

China has blocked Canadian porks.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-canada-farm-minister-informed-beijing-blocked-two-231058707--finance.html

This Canadian pork blockage is not surprising as China will be importing more US porks under the China-US trade deal.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/canada-is-just-plain-stupid.html

The US FED has stayed put but something is amiss.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-leaves-interest-rates-unchanged-181509741.html

The US FED has left the interest rates unchanged but something is amiss because the ioer (2.35% now) is being lowered and the effr is still rising (2.45% now).

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/will-us-fed-cut-interest-rate-in-may.html

The premium difference between the effr and ioer is showing that the monetary tightening has worsened as the money supply is still shrinking.  In other words, the US Fed is still continuing its quantitative tapering discreetly.




US ISM Manufacturing PMI fell in April.


The ISM Manufacturing PMI in the US fell to 52.8 in April 2019 from 55.3 in March, below market expectations of 55. The latest reading pointed to the weakest growth in factory activity since October 2016, amid slower increases in new orders, production and employment. 

A slowdown was seen in new orders (51.7 from 57.4 in March), production (52.3 from 55.8) and employment (52.4 from 57.5). Also, new export orders fell into contraction territory (49.5 from 51.7) and prices eased (50 from 54.3). Meanwhile, inventories (52.9 from 51.8), backlogs of orders (53.9 from 50.4), and supplier deliveries (54.6 from 54.2) rose at a faster pace. 

The weak US April PMI will cause the next GDP number to weaken since the PMI is a leading indicator.


In our previous analysis above, we had expected the employment sub-index to fall and the April PMI vindicated our view.

The weak PMI will force the US to strike a China-US trade deal as soon as possible or else the US economy will deteriorate quickly.

Wednesday, May 1, 2019

Omg! Trump wants the Fed to cut the rate by 1%.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-quantitative-tightening-fed-fomc-balance-sheet-tweet-222837013.html

This is ridiculous unless the US economy is in the danger of collapsing.  Is Trump privy to some economic information that is unavailable to the public and it is telling him that the US economy is collapsing? or the US has been fudging its economic data?

We still believe that the US Fed will not cut the rate on 1 May 2019.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/will-us-fed-cut-interest-rate-in-may.html

Tuesday, April 30, 2019

Clearbridge - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
04/01/19 phillip Clearbridge 0.142 0.28 Buy DCF

City Developments - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/04/19 Lim & Tan City Developments 7.94 0 Buy
01/17/19 CIMB City Developments 8.85 10.65 Add RNAV (35% discount)
02/11/19 Jefferies City Developments 9.16 12 Buy
02/22/19 phillip City Developments 9.54 11.82 Accumulate RNAV (30% discount)
02/22/19 OCBC City Developments 9.54 10.68 Buy
02/22/19 DMG & Partners City Developments 9.54 9.2 Neutral RNAV (40% discount)
02/22/19 DBS Vickers City Developments 9.54 9.5 Hold RNAV (40% discount)
02/22/19 CIMB City Developments 9.54 10.66 Add
03/21/19 Lim & Tan City Developments 9.02 0 Buy
03/26/19 CIMB City Developments 8.87 10.66 Add
04/04/19 DMG & Partners City Developments 9.31 9.2 Neutral
04/17/19 OCBC City Developments 9.32 10.68 Buy

Chip Eng Seng - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/17/19 DBS Vickers Chip Eng Seng 0.705 0.75 Hold

Stock calls for 30 April 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
04/30/19 Kim Eng A-Reit 3.01 3.2 Buy DDM
04/30/19 OCBC A-Reit 3.01 2.74 Hold
04/30/19 DMG & Partners A-Reit 3.01 2.9 Neutral DDM
04/30/19 CIMB Comfortdelgro 2.69 2.88 Add DCF, PER18.1x FY20
04/30/19 Macquarie DBS 28.4 27 Neutral
04/30/19 phillip DBS 28.4 29 Accumulate GGM, PB1.5x FY19
04/30/19 OCBC DBS 28.4 29.18 Hold Buy @ $27.50 or lower
04/30/19 CIMB DBS 28.4 30 Add GGM, PB1.54x
04/30/19 DMG & Partners DBS 28.4 30.8 Buy PB1.5x FY20
04/30/19 Lim & Tan DBS 28.4 30 Hold
04/30/19 OCBC Frasers Logistics 1.18 1.2 Hold
04/30/19 OCBC Hutchison Port 0.24 0.22 Hold
04/30/19 DBS Vickers Hutchison Port 0.24 0.26 Hold
04/30/19 DBS Vickers Ifast Corp 1.12 1.05 Hold DDM
04/30/19 Amfrasers Manulife US Reit 0.88 0.97 Buy DDM
04/30/19 OCBC Mapletree Logistics 1.47 1.38 Hold
04/30/19 DMG & Partners Raffles Medical 1.07 1.02 Neutral
04/30/19 DMG & Partners Sheng Siong 1.04 1.23 Buy DCF & PER21x
04/30/19 CIMB Sheng Siong 1.04 1.1 Hold PER20.5x CY20
04/30/19 Amfrasers Sheng Siong 1.04 1.24 Buy DCF
04/30/19 UOB Kay Hian Starhill 0.755 0.9 Buy DDM

Will the US Fed cut the interest rate in May 2019?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-may-end-seeing-1995-190000337.html

Some people are hoping and predicting a fed rate cut in May 2019 but I don't share the same sentiment as them because the EFFR has been rising to 2.44% now.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/whats-happening-to-usd-now-why-is-it.html

When the EFFR(2.44%) is greater than IOER(2.4%), it becomes a monetary tightening situation because the excess funds are moving into EFFR which are usually used to invest in treasuries.  Therefore, there is lesser money available in commercial markets like mortgage and commercial loans.  This is the rationale behind the rise in USD as the money supply is shrinking.

If the US Fed were to cut the interest rate, it would cause the USD to depreciate and that would contradict the rise in EFFR which was causing the rise in USD.  By cutting the rate now will send a bewildering signal to the market and also highlighting the contradictory stances between the US Fed and Trump.  This will also send a signal that Trump has intervened in the independent Fed again which is bad for the US economy.