Stock calls for 6 May 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/06/19	Phillip	ART	1.21	1.36	Buy	DDM
05/06/19	Kim Eng	First Resources	1.82	2.03	Buy	PER17x FY19
05/06/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Property	1.89	2.3	Buy
05/06/19	DBS Vickers	Hi-P	1.44	1.41	Hold	PER12x FY19
05/06/19	Kim Eng	Hi-P	1.44	1.22	Sell	PB1.5x FY19
05/06/19	Tayrona	Sanli Env	0.18	0.234	Overweight
05/06/19	phillip	Sembcorp Marine	1.67	1.76	Neutral	PB1.6x
05/06/19	OCBC	Sembcorp Marine	1.67	1.77	Hold
05/06/19	Amfrasers	Sembcorp Marine	1.67	2.48	Buy
05/06/19	DBS Vickers	Sembcorp Marine	1.67	2.4	Buy	PB2.1x FY19
05/06/19	Phillip	Starhub	1.58	1.62	Neutral
05/06/19	UOB Kay Hian	Starhub	1.58	1.45	Sell	DCF
05/06/19	CIMB	Starhub	1.58	1.65	Hold	DCF (10% discount)
05/06/19	DMG & Partners	Starhub	1.58	1.72	Neutral	DCF
05/06/19	OCBC	Starhub	1.58	1.64	Hold
05/06/19	Kim Eng	Starhub	1.58	2	buy	DCF
05/06/19	Jefferies	UOB	27.77	31	Buy	PER12.4x FY19
05/06/19	OCBC	UOB	27.77	28.9	Hold	GGM, PB1.2x
05/06/19	phillip	UOB	27.77	30.87	Accumulate	GGM, PB1.4x FY19
05/06/19	CIMB	UOB	27.77	29.58	Add	GGM, PB1.3x
05/06/19	Lim & Tan	UOB	27.77	0	Buy on weakness

China VP Liu has changed his US travel plan.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/government-economy/china-vice-premier-liu-will-still-travel-to-us-this-week-but-will-shorten-trip

As Trump threatened to impose additional China tariffs on Friday (10 May), China VP Liu had decided to defer his US travel plan to Thursday (9 May) and would reach the US on Friday (10 May).  He wanted to see if the US would impose the threat against China. Then, he would leave the US on Saturday.

Basically, there is nothing much VP Liu can discuss with the US as the time is too short to produce any productive outcome.  This is a wasted trip unless Trump is willing to change his unreasonable threat.

China is preparing a trade war with the US now.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/china-central-bank-cut-requirements-banks-trade-tensions-034114168--sector.html

The China RRR cut deserves some attention because it is imposed after Trump's threat on Sunday.

The Chinese are preparing for a trade war with the US because China is trying to stimulate its local consumption with the RRR cut since it is a consuming nation now.

What's worrying to the global world is that the Chinese are consuming more local made products and reducing their imports in this trade war.  This will cause a global recession and many export-oriented countries like SK, Japan, SG, etc will suffer tremendously.

The US has issued a warning to anti-Israel countries such as Malaysia.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/u-may-review-ties-countries-deemed-anti-israel-142945853.html

The US has issued a warning in public to anti-Israel countries like Malaysia.

Malaysia is one of the anti-Israel countries.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/sport/paralympics-malaysia-stripped-of-right-to-host-world-11172762

This will force Malaysia to kowtow to China because Malaysia is helpless against the US.  Malaysia has to find a big country to join forces to fight off the US.

The US is playing a stupid political game with Iran.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/u-deploying-carrier-bombers-middle-east-warning-iran-010502968.html

The US can send a carrier strike group to Iran but the Russian also can send its naval warships to Iran too.  The US dares not attack the Russian warships as this will escalate into a WW3 since both countries have large arsenals of nuclear weapons.  China also may get involved as it is a major customer of Iran.

Trump threatens China with more tariffs again.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/trump-vows-tariff-hike-chinese-goods-escalating-tension-004818460.html

China should just walk away from the trade talk because the US economy would just collapse if Trump imposed more tariffs.  The trade war devastation is starting to creep up in the US economic data and the US government is trying to fudge the economic numbers now.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/discrepancies-in-us-employment-data.html

We've found discrepancies in the US manufacturing employment datum because it is not in sync with the PMI employment sub-index.  The PMI employment sub-index fell but the manufacturing employment datum rose.

Discrepancies in the US employment data.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/us-job-growth-surges--unemployment-rate-drops-to-3-6-percent-11499716

US job growth surged in April and the unemployment rate dropped.

However, the ISM Manufacturing PMI data in April showed otherwise.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/us-ism-manufacturing-pmi-fell-in-april.html

The employment sub-index under the April PMI showed it dropped from 57.5% to 52.4%, an almost 10% drop.  A drop of such magnitude is serious!

This could only mean that the manufacturing industry was shedding workers but workers were increasing in other sectors.  Right? No!

The US employment data showed that the manufacturing sector increased by 4,000 jobs in April and contradicted the April PMI data.  A 4,000 job increase couldn't cause the employment sub-index under PMI to drop by 10%.

Something fishy is going here.  Like I said before, the demon was hiding in the details.

Baltic dry index - 1032

Today, Thursday, May 02 2019, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 1 point, reaching 1032 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

===================

Related stocks: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 990

Related stocks: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco,

Dasin Retail - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/15/19	phillip	Dasin Retail	0.885	0.95	Accumulate	DDM
02/28/19	phillip	Dasin Retail	0.885	0.94	Accumulate	DDM, PB0.64x

Dairy Farm - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/04/19	DMG & Partners	Dairy Farm	8.57	8.64	Neutral	DCF
03/04/19	DBS Vickers	Dairy Farm	8.57	8.44	Hold	Sum of parts
03/06/19	CIMB	Dairy Farm	8.33	8.54	Hold	PER23.5x FY20
03/20/19	DMG & Partners	Dairy Farm	7.41	8.25	Buy	DCF
04/05/19	DMG & Partners	Dairy Farm	8.14	8.25	Buy

CSE Global - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/04/19	UOB Kay Hian	CSE Global	0.385	0.59	Buy
01/07/19	DMG & Partners	CSE Global	0.395	0.59	Buy	DCF
01/11/19	Lim & Tan	CSE Global	0.395	0	Buy
01/15/19	CIMB	CSE Global	0.405	0.56	Add	PER13.5x FY20
01/22/19	Amfrasers	CSE Global	0.43	0.57	Buy
02/08/19	UOB Kay Hian	CSE Global	0.455	0.59	Buy
02/22/19	DMG & Partners	CSE Global	0.465	0.6	Buy	DCF
02/22/19	CIMB	CSE Global	0.465	0.6	Add	PER13.5x FY19
02/22/19	UOB Kay Hian	CSE Global	0.465	0.62	Buy
03/05/19	Amfrasers	CSE Global	0.505	0.58	Buy
03/26/19	UOB Kay Hian	CSE Global	0.54	0.62	Buy
03/26/19	DMG & Partners	CSE Global	0.54	0.61	Buy	DCF
03/26/19	CIMB	CSE Global	0.54	0.6	Add
04/02/19	Lim & Tan	CSE Global	0.545	0	Buy

Stock calls for 3 May 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/03/19	DBS Vickers	ART	1.2	1.35	Buy	DCF
05/03/19	OCBC	Capitaland	3.54	4.04	Buy
05/03/19	CIMB	Capitaland	3.54	3.56	Add
05/03/19	CIMB	CDL Hospitality	1.61	1.85	Add	DDM
05/03/19	DMG & Partners	China Aviation Oil	1.36	1.6	Buy
05/03/19	phillip	China Sunsine	1.17	1.43	Buy	FCFE
05/03/19	Jefferies	City Developments	9	12	Buy	PB0.84x
05/03/19	Kim Eng	Frasers Hospitality Trust	0.745	0.85	Buy
05/03/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Hospitality Trust	0.745	0.77	Hold	DCF
05/03/19	UOB Kay Hian	Japfa	0.605	0.73	Buy	Sum of parts
05/03/19	DBS Vickers	Japfa	0.605	0.61	Hold	Sum of parts (10% discount), PER14x FY19
05/03/19	phillip	OCBC	12.04	13.7	Buy
05/03/19	CIMB	OUE Hospitality	0.72	0.85	Add
05/03/19	CIMB	Sembcorp Marine	1.69	2.21	Add
05/03/19	phillip	UOB	27.75	32.5	Buy
05/03/19	DMG & Partners	UOB	27.75	30.8	Buy
05/03/19	DBS Vickers	UOB	27.75	29.2	Buy
05/03/19	CIMB	UOB	27.75	29	Add	GGM
05/03/19	UOB Kay Hian	Venture	17.4	19.01	Hold	Buy @ $17

New York Rhodium Group clears China for debt trap diplomacy.

https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/data-doesn-t-support-belt-and-road-debt-trap-claims-20190502-p51jhx.html?ref=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_source=rss_feed

The New York Rhodium group has vindicated China for using debt trap diplomacy because of the data that doesn't support the US proclamation.

This group has proven that the US is just doing fearmongering for its own political benefits.

The Australia National University senior lecturer also said that the debt trap diplomacy claim was never credible.

The US is a real trouble maker in this world!

Cromwell Reit (EUR) - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/15/19	DBS Vickers	Cromwell Reit (EUR)	0.49	0.59	Buy	DCF

Comfortdelgro - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/25/19	DBS Vickers	Comfortdelgro	2.24	2.56	Buy
02/01/19	CIMB	Comfortdelgro	2.33	2.74	Add	DCF
02/08/19	UOB Kay Hian	Comfortdelgro	2.36	2.59	Buy	PER16.8x FY19
02/08/19	DBS Vickers	Comfortdelgro	2.36	2.56	Buy
02/14/19	phillip	Comfortdelgro	2.38	2.72	Accumulate	DCF, PER18.5x FY19
02/14/19	UOB Kay Hian	Comfortdelgro	2.38	2.66	Buy	PER16.8x FY19
02/14/19	OCBC	Comfortdelgro	2.38	2.38	Hold
02/14/19	DMG & Partners	Comfortdelgro	2.38	2.65	Buy
02/14/19	DBS Vickers	Comfortdelgro	2.38	2.57	Buy	DCF & PER16x FY19
02/19/19	Amfrasers	Comfortdelgro	2.41	2.77	Buy	PER19x FY19
03/04/19	Kim Eng	Comfortdelgro	2.43	2.45	Hold	DCF
03/08/19	CIMB	Comfortdelgro	2.41	2.74	Add	DCF
03/22/19	UOB Kay Hian	Comfortdelgro	2.54	2.77	Buy	PER17.5x FY20
04/03/19	DMG & Partners	Comfortdelgro	2.59	2.65	Take Profit	Buy below $2.50
04/16/19	OCBC	Comfortdelgro	2.63	2.63	Hold	DCF
04/30/19	CIMB	Comfortdelgro	2.69	2.88	Add	DCF, PER18.1x FY20

CNMC - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/01/19	phillip	CNMC	0.225	0.31	Buy	DCF
03/12/19	Tayrona	CNMC	0.21	0.31	Overweight

Stock calls for 2 May 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/02/19	Phillip	A-Reit	3	2.88	Neutral
05/02/19	CIMB	A-Reit	3	2.87	Hold	DDM
05/02/19	DBS Vickers	A-Reit	3	3.2	Buy	DCF
05/02/19	OCBC	ART	1.2	1.25	Hold
05/02/19	UOB Kay Hian	ART	1.2	1.46	Buy
05/02/19	Phillip	Capitaland	3.53	4	Accumulate	RNAV (20% discount)
05/02/19	Lim & Tan	Capitaland	3.53	0	Hold
05/02/19	DMG & Partners	CDL Hospitality	1.6	1.77	Buy	DDM
05/02/19	Kim Eng	CDL Hospitality	1.6	1.8	Buy
05/02/19	OCBC	CDL Hospitality	1.6	1.54	Hold
05/02/19	DBS Vickers	CDL Hospitality	1.6	1.85	Buy
05/02/19	phillip	China Aviation Oil	1.37	1.67	Buy	PER11.5x FY20
05/02/19	Amfrasers	DBS	28.25	27.7	Hold
05/02/19	Jefferies	DBS	28.25	31.5	Buy	PER13.1x FY20
05/02/19	CIMB	Frasers Logistics	1.18	1.21	Hold	DDM
05/02/19	DBS Vickers	Indofood Agri	0.28	0.19	Accept offer	offer price $0.28
05/02/19	DBS Vickers	Jardine C&C	35.52	39.1	Buy	Sum of parts (16% discount)
05/02/19	Amfrasers	Keppel DC Reit	1.51	1.62	Buy
05/02/19	DMG & Partners	Manulife US Reit	0.87	0.96	Buy	DDM
05/02/19	UOB Kay Hian	Mapletree Logistics	1.48	1.39	Hold	Buy @ $1.26
05/02/19	OCBC	Mapletree North Asia	1.36	1.4	Hold
05/02/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree North Asia	1.36	1.6	Buy	DCF
05/02/19	Phillip	Micro-Mechanics	1.63	1.63	Neutral	PER15x FY20
05/02/19	DMG & Partners	Moya Asia	0.081	0.095	Buy
05/02/19	DBS Vickers	Oxley	0.325	0.68	Buy
05/02/19	UOB Kay Hian	Parkway Life	2.89	3.25	Buy
05/02/19	phillip	Raffles Medical	1.08	1.09	Neutral	DCF
05/02/19	DBS Vickers	Raffles Medical	1.08	1.12	Hold	Sum of parts
05/02/19	phillip	Sheng Siong	1.03	1.3	Buy	PER25x
05/02/19	UOB Kay Hian	Tianjin Zhongxin	0.985	1.7	Buy
05/02/19	Lim & Tan	Venture	16.97	0	Buy on weakness
05/02/19	UOB Kay Hian	Wilmar	3.64	3.9	Buy
05/02/19	CIMB	Yangzijiang	1.57	1.61	Hold	Sum of parts
05/02/19	OCBC	Yangzijiang	1.57	1.45	Hold	Sum of parts
05/02/19	DBS Vickers	Yangzijiang	1.57	1.82	Buy	Sum of parts

China has blocked Canadian porks.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-canada-farm-minister-informed-beijing-blocked-two-231058707--finance.html

This Canadian pork blockage is not surprising as China will be importing more US porks under the China-US trade deal.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/canada-is-just-plain-stupid.html

The US FED has stayed put but something is amiss.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-leaves-interest-rates-unchanged-181509741.html

The US FED has left the interest rates unchanged but something is amiss because the ioer (2.35% now) is being lowered and the effr is still rising (2.45% now).

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/will-us-fed-cut-interest-rate-in-may.html

The premium difference between the effr and ioer is showing that the monetary tightening has worsened as the money supply is still shrinking.  In other words, the US Fed is still continuing its quantitative tapering discreetly.