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Tuesday, June 25, 2019

Stock calls for 25 June 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
06/25/19 Kim Eng A-Reit 3.01 3.2 Buy
06/25/19 OCBC ART 1.3 1.25 Hold
06/25/19 Kim Eng Capitamall Trust 2.6 2.4 Hold
06/25/19 Kim Eng CDL Hospitality 1.62 1.8 Buy
06/25/19 Kim Eng Far East Hospitality 0.675 0.8 Buy
06/25/19 Kim Eng Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.59 2.6 Buy
06/25/19 Kim Eng Manulife US Reit 0.865 1 Buy
06/25/19 Kim Eng Mapletree Industrial 2.18 2.25 Buy
06/25/19 DBS Vickers OCBC 11.28 11.5 Hold GGM, PB1.1x FY20
06/25/19 Kim Eng Sasseur 0.79 0.9 Buy
06/25/19 DBS Vickers UOB 25.86 29.2 Buy
06/25/19 Lim & Tan Venture 17.3 0 Hold

Monday, June 24, 2019

Silverlake - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/02/19 DMG & Partners Silverlake 0.415 0.65 Buy DCF
01/03/19 DBS Vickers Silverlake 0.405 0.6 Buy PER21x FY19
01/07/19 DBS Vickers Silverlake 0.425 0.62 Buy PER21x FY19
02/01/19 DMG & Partners Silverlake 0.485 0.65 Buy DCF
02/15/19 DBS Vickers Silverlake 0.515 0.62 Buy PER21x FY19
03/01/19 CIMB Silverlake 0.57 0.62 Add Sum of parts, PER19x CY20
03/13/19 DMG & Partners Silverlake 0.555 0.65 Buy DCF
05/07/19 DMG & Partners Silverlake 0.61 0.65 Buy DCF
05/16/19 DBS Vickers Silverlake 0.52 0.63 Buy PER21x FY19
05/16/19 CIMB Silverlake 0.52 0.58 Add
06/06/19 DMG & Partners Silverlake 0.53 0.65 Buy DCF

SIIC - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/21/19 DBS Vickers SIIC 0.29 0.32 Hold PER13x FY19

SIA Engineering - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/07/19 UOB Kay Hian SIA Engineering 2.39 2.7 Buy DCF
02/11/19 Kim Eng SIA Engineering 2.52 2.85 Buy DCF
02/11/19 OCBC SIA Engineering 2.52 2.47 Hold
02/11/19 phillip SIA Engineering 2.52 2.66 Neutral DCF
02/11/19 UOB Kay Hian SIA Engineering 2.52 2.55 Hold
02/12/19 CIMB SIA Engineering 2.39 3.11 Add DCF
02/12/19 DBS Vickers SIA Engineering 2.39 2.7 Hold DCF & PER16x FY20 & Div Yield 4.5% & EV/Ebitda11x
04/15/19 Kim Eng SIA Engineering 2.49 2.85 Buy
05/14/19 Kim Eng SIA Engineering 2.43 2.85 Buy DCF
05/14/19 OCBC SIA Engineering 2.43 2.43 Hold
05/14/19 UOB Kay Hian SIA Engineering 2.43 2.55 Hold Buy @ $2.30
05/14/19 DBS Vickers SIA Engineering 2.43 2.6 Hold Sum of parts
05/14/19 CIMB SIA Engineering 2.43 3.11 Add

Stock calls for 24 June 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
06/24/19 OCBC CapitaCommercial 2.14 1.88 Sell
06/24/19 Lim & Tan Cromwell Reit (EUR) 0.505 0 Hold
06/24/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.54 2.85 Buy
06/24/19 Amfrasers Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.54 2.33 Neutral DDM
06/24/19 CIMB Genting 0.93 1.06 Add

Saturday, June 22, 2019

Citibank and Fed Kashkari look towards a 50bp cut in July 2019.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/citi-sees-case-fed-cut-213503893.html

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/minneapolis-fed-president-kashkari-advocated-for-50-basis-point-rate-cut-140027452.html

Wow! Wow!

Look like the Fed and Citi are expecting a very bad GDP number to come out in July.  This means that the US economy is deteriorating fast and furious now because of the US-China trade war.

Baltic dry index - 1239

Today, Friday, June 21 2019, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 45 points, reaching 1239 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
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Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean

US rig count - 967


Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco

Friday, June 21, 2019

SIA - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/17/19 UOB Kay Hian SIA 9.76 10.2 Hold Sum of parts, Buy @ $9
01/24/19 Kim Eng SIA 9.5 11.2 Buy PB0.94x
01/24/19 CIMB SIA 9.5 10.25 Hold PB0.9x CY19
02/15/19 CIMB SIA 9.87 10.25 Hold PB0.9x CY19
02/15/19 DBS Vickers SIA 9.87 11 Buy PB0.9x FY20
02/15/19 Lim & Tan SIA 9.87 0 Hold
02/18/19 Kim Eng SIA 9.76 11.2 Buy PB0.94x
02/18/19 UOB Kay Hian SIA 9.76 10.2 Hold Buy @ $9.50
02/18/19 OCBC SIA 9.76 10.71 Buy
03/19/19 CIMB SIA 9.83 10.25 Hold
03/19/19 UOB Kay Hian SIA 9.83 10.1 Hold Buy @ $9
04/16/19 UOB Kay Hian SIA 9.88 10.1 Hold Sum of parts
04/16/19 OCBC SIA 9.88 11.02 Buy
05/17/19 CIMB SIA 9.4 10.14 Hold PB0.9x CY19
05/21/19 OCBC SIA 9.3 11.02 Buy
05/21/19 UOB Kay Hian SIA 9.3 9.6 Hold Buy @ $8.80
05/21/19 DBS Vickers SIA 9.3 10.8 Buy PB0.95x FY20
06/19/19 UOB Kay Hian SIA 9.17 9.5 Hold Sum of parts, Buy @ $8.60

SHS - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/29/19 phillip SHS 0.197 0.24 Accumulate PER10x FY19
03/08/19 phillip SHS 0.191 0.194 Neutral PB0.7x
05/21/19 phillip SHS 0.174 0 Cease coverage

Sheng Siong - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/02/19 DMG & Partners Sheng Siong 1.06 1.27 Buy
01/04/19 phillip Sheng Siong 1.07 1.13 Accumulate
02/20/19 UOB Kay Hian Sheng Siong 1.08 1.15 Hold
02/27/19 DMG & Partners Sheng Siong 1.09 1.25 Buy DCF
02/27/19 OCBC Sheng Siong 1.09 1.19 Buy
02/27/19 DBS Vickers Sheng Siong 1.09 1.25 Buy PER25x FY19
02/27/19 CIMB Sheng Siong 1.09 1.22 Add PER22.2x FY20
02/27/19 UOB Kay Hian Sheng Siong 1.09 1.11 Hold
03/04/19 phillip Sheng Siong 1.09 1.3 Accumulate PER25x
03/05/19 Amfrasers Sheng Siong 1.09 1.24 Buy
03/13/19 DMG & Partners Sheng Siong 1.08 1.25 Buy DCF
03/19/19 Kim Eng Sheng Siong 1.08 0.95 Sell DCF, PER19.5x FY19
04/05/19 DMG & Partners Sheng Siong 1.04 1.25 Buy
04/16/19 Kim Eng Sheng Siong 1.06 0.95 Sell DCF
04/29/19 UOB Kay Hian Sheng Siong 1.04 1.11 Hold Buy @ $1
04/29/19 DBS Vickers Sheng Siong 1.04 1.25 Buy PER5x FY19
04/30/19 DMG & Partners Sheng Siong 1.04 1.23 Buy DCF & PER21x
04/30/19 CIMB Sheng Siong 1.04 1.1 Hold PER20.5x CY20
04/30/19 Amfrasers Sheng Siong 1.04 1.24 Buy DCF
04/30/19 OCBC Sheng Siong 1.04 1.19 Buy
05/02/19 phillip Sheng Siong 1.03 1.3 Buy PER25x
06/06/19 DMG & Partners Sheng Siong 1.1 1.23 Buy
06/06/19 DBS Vickers Sheng Siong 1.1 1.25 Buy
06/14/19 Kim Eng Sheng Siong 1.09 0.95 Sell DCF

Stock calls for 21 June 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
06/21/19 UOB Kay Hian Capitamall Trust 2.58 2.65 Hold
06/21/19 Lim & Tan Del Monte 0.12 0 Buy
06/21/19 DBS Vickers Fortune Reit 10.66 11.8 Buy DDM
06/21/19 UOB Kay Hian Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.55 2.72 Buy
06/21/19 DMG & Partners Jumbo 0.38 0.47 Buy DCF, PER23x FY19
06/21/19 DBS Vickers Keppel Corp 6.57 9 Buy
06/21/19 UOB Kay Hian Mapletree Commercial 2.04 2.22 Buy

Traders are pricing in a 100% chance of a Fed rate cut in July 2019

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/19/traders-are-pricing-in-a-100percent-chance-of-at-least-one-fed-rate-cut-in-july.html

We had expected a rate cut to happen after analzying the US interest rates and the economic situation (see below) in the US.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/06/will-us-fed-reduce-its-interest-rates.html

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/06/the-true-picture-of-us-economy.html

Look like the US Fed will reduce its interest rates in July 2019 as expected by the US traders.

Thursday, June 20, 2019

Shangri-La Asia - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/21/19 OCBC Shangri-La Asia 11.04 16.4 Buy
03/22/19 OCBC Shangri-La Asia 11.18 16.16 Buy

SGX - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/04/19 phillip SGX 7.15 9.01 Buy
01/25/19 CIMB SGX 7.5 7.9 Add PER22.1x FY20
01/25/19 DMG & Partners SGX 7.5 8.2 Buy PER22x FY20
01/28/19 phillip SGX 7.57 8.36 Buy PER23.2x FY19
01/28/19 OCBC SGX 7.57 7.98 Buy PER22x F19/20
02/22/19 Citibank SGX 7.87 7.8 Hold
03/12/19 Citibank SGX 7.46 7 Sell
03/14/19 DBS Vickers SGX 7.26 7.05 Hold DDM, PER20x CY20
03/19/19 phillip SGX 7.31 8.17 Accumulate PER23.2x
04/05/19 DMG & Partners SGX 7.42 8.1 Buy PER23x FY20
04/26/19 OCBC SGX 7.26 7.6 Hold PER21x FY20
04/26/19 DBS Vickers SGX 7.26 7.05 Hold DDM, PER20x FY20
04/26/19 Kim Eng SGX 7.26 8.79 Buy PER23x FY19
04/29/19 phillip SGX 7.4 8.09 Accumulate PER21.4x
04/29/19 CIMB SGX 7.4 7.9 Add PER22.1x FY20

Sembcorp Marine - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/10/19 DIR Sembcorp Marine 1.62 1.62 Hold Cut from $1.78, PB1.8x FY19
01/22/19 Amfrasers Sembcorp Marine 1.66 2.5 Buy
02/01/19 UOB Kay Hian Sembcorp Marine 1.6 1.83 Hold PB1.7x FY19, Buy @ $1.50
02/04/19 DBS Vickers Sembcorp Marine 1.59 2.4 Buy PB2.1x FY19
02/21/19 CIMB Sembcorp Marine 1.68 2.21 Add PB2x CY19
02/21/19 OCBC Sembcorp Marine 1.68 1.77 Hold
02/21/19 phillip Sembcorp Marine 1.68 1.76 Neutral PB1.6x
02/21/19 Lim & Tan Sembcorp Marine 1.68 0 Hold
02/26/19 Amfrasers Sembcorp Marine 1.72 2.48 Buy
04/09/19 Amfrasers Sembcorp Marine 1.7 2.48 Buy
04/09/19 DBS Vickers Sembcorp Marine 1.7 2.4 Buy
05/03/19 CIMB Sembcorp Marine 1.69 2.21 Add PB2x
05/06/19 phillip Sembcorp Marine 1.67 1.76 Neutral PB1.6x
05/06/19 OCBC Sembcorp Marine 1.67 1.77 Hold
05/06/19 Amfrasers Sembcorp Marine 1.67 2.48 Buy
05/06/19 DBS Vickers Sembcorp Marine 1.67 2.4 Buy PB2.1x FY19
05/30/19 OCBC Sembcorp Marine 1.45 1.6 Hold PB1.45x
06/04/19 DMG & Partners Sembcorp Marine 1.39 1.99 Buy PB1.8x FY20

Stock calls for 20 June 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
06/20/19 DMG & Partners Suntec Reit 1.92 1.9 Neutral DDM
06/20/19 OCBC UOB 26.14 28.9 Buy

China has started to sell US treasuries. - Part 4

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-treasury-securities/china-holdings-of-us-treasuries-in-april-skid-to-nearly-two-year-low-idUSKCN1TI2RA

China had sold US treasuries again.  Why?

We've stated the rationale behind the selling in our previous posts.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/china-has-started-to-sell-us-treasuries_18.html

The US treasuries sold off was not a retaliation against the US but to defend the RMB.  This is the reason the RMB is unable to breach the $7 mark.

What are the repercussions for selling the US treasuries?

China will have to convert the USD abroad into RMB and remit it back to China. This will cause an influx of RMB in China and increase the money supply.  As idling money will depreciate in value over time, the China central bank will make good use of the excess money by reducing the bank's required reserve ratio to stimulate its local consumption.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/how-china-rrr-cut-will-impact-its.html

Thereafter, the excess money will flow into the stock markets, property markets, etc and boost inflation.  Consequently, inflation will help to reduce the debt burdens in China.

Why is inflation able to reduce the debt pressure?

Inflation works in the same way as compound interest. It creates asset appreciation and causes wealth accumulation much faster than debt because debt is not subjected to the same effect.  Therefore, inflation is able to reduce the debt pressure in China.

However, China cannot afford to sell all its US treasuries because overwhelming inflation will create an overheating economy and China has to manage the burgeoning inflation well or else it will have a bigger problem to resolve in the future.  Fortunately, the worldwide economic situation has created an ideal environment in China for inflation to rear its head.  Why?

The ECB has just stated its willingness to implement a QE policy with an interest rate cut recently.

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2019/06/18/donald-trump-takes-aim-at-mario-draghi-over-interest-rates

Furthermore, the US is also keen to reduce its own interest rates.  Financially speaking, the money will usually flow to a higher interest rate country (China) from a lower interest rate country (EU,US).  Thus, China doesn't need to do anything but to wait for the capital inflows from the EU and US when they reduce their interest rates.  In conclusion, China just needs to sell enough US treasuries to maintain a stable RMB and the expected capital inflows will work its wonders in China.

Wednesday, June 19, 2019

Sembcorp Industries - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/10/19 DIR Sembcorp Industries 2.64 3.05 Outperform Sum of parts, cut from $3.26
01/15/19 UOB Kay Hian Sembcorp Industries 2.63 3.2 Buy Sum of parts
01/23/19 CIMB Sembcorp Industries 2.69 3.49 Add
02/01/19 UOB Kay Hian Sembcorp Industries 2.59 3.2 Buy
02/04/19 DBS Vickers Sembcorp Industries 2.58 3.7 Buy
02/21/19 Lim & Tan Sembcorp Industries 2.66 0 Hold
02/25/19 DBS Vickers Sembcorp Industries 2.67 3.9 Buy RNAV (10% discount), PB1x
03/13/19 UOB Kay Hian Sembcorp Industries 2.57 2.8 Hold Sum of parts, Buy @ $2.35
03/18/19 Lim & Tan Sembcorp Industries 2.52 0 Hold
04/09/19 DBS Vickers Sembcorp Industries 2.75 3.9 Buy
05/16/19 OCBC Sembcorp Industries 2.54 3.13 Buy Sum of parts
05/16/19 DBS Vickers Sembcorp Industries 2.54 3.9 Buy Sum of parts, PB1x
05/16/19 CIMB Sembcorp Industries 2.54 3.41 Add Sum of parts
05/17/19 phillip Sembcorp Industries 2.55 3.75 Buy Sum of parts
06/04/19 OCBC Sembcorp Industries 2.38 3.03 Buy Sum of parts

SATS - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation Remark
01/04/19 UOB Kay Hian SATS 4.59 5.6 Buy
01/11/19 OCBC SATS 4.94 5.23 Hold DCF
02/08/19 UOB Kay Hian SATS 4.8 5.6 Buy
02/14/19 phillip SATS 4.98 5.47 Accumulate DCF, PER24.6x FY19
02/14/19 OCBC SATS 4.98 5.23 Hold
02/14/19 CIMB SATS 4.98 5.46 Add PER20.3x
02/14/19 Lim & Tan SATS 4.98 0 Hold
02/14/19 DBS Vickers SATS 4.98 5.59 Buy DCF & PER22x FY19
02/14/19 Kim Eng SATS 4.98 5.8 Buy
02/15/19 Citi Research SATS 5.08 6 Buy
03/26/19 UOB Kay Hian SATS 5.06 5.6 Buy
04/15/19 Kim Eng SATS 5.31 5.8 Buy
05/13/19 UOB Kay Hian SATS 5.27 5.6 Buy
05/17/19 OCBC SATS 5.22 5.35 Hold
05/21/19 phillip SATS 5.08 5.47 Accumulate DCF, PER24x FY19
05/21/19 UOB Kay Hian SATS 5.08 5.05 Hold Buy @ 4.60
05/21/19 DBS Vickers SATS 5.08 5.44 Buy DCF & PER22x FY20
06/03/19 UOB Kay Hian SATS 5.07 5.05 Hold Buy @ $4.70
06/06/19 DBS Vickers SATS 5.04 5.44 Buy
06/12/19 Kim Eng SATS 5.04 6.1 Buy DCF
06/17/19 CIMB SATS 5.14 5.4 Add PER21.9x CY20