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Wednesday, July 3, 2019

UMS - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/26/19 DBS Vickers UMS 0.71 0.55 Fully Valued PER8x FY19
02/28/19 CIMB UMS 0.74 0.62 Reduce PB1.37x CY19
05/14/19 DBS Vickers UMS 0.615 0.55 Fully Valued PER8x FY19
05/16/19 DBS Vickers UMS 0.64 0.45 Fully Valued PER8x FY19/20
05/21/19 CIMB UMS 0.62 0.55 Reduce

UG Healthcare - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/11/19 DMG & Partners UG Healthcare 0.205 0.32 Buy PER10x FY20
05/07/19 DMG & Partners UG Healthcare 0.18 0.32 Buy PER10x FY20

Tuan Sing - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/29/19 Amfrasers Tuan Sing 0.395 0.46 Not Rated RNAV (50% discount)

Stock calls for 3 July 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
07/03/19 Kim Eng A-Reit 3.13 3.3 Buy DDM
07/03/19 phillip DBS 26.5 29 Accumulate
07/03/19 DMG & Partners Hyphens Pharma 0.196 0.25 Buy DCF, PER12.2x FY19
07/03/19 DBS Vickers Keppel Corp 6.77 9.2 Buy
07/03/19 OCBC Keppel Corp 6.77 7.83 Buy
07/03/19 UOB Kay Hian Koufu 0.72 0.95 Buy
07/03/19 phillip OCBC 11.54 12.7 Accumulate
07/03/19 OCBC Sembcorp Industries 2.47 3.03 Buy
07/03/19 CIMB Sembcorp Marine 1.54 1.75 Add PB1.6x CY19
07/03/19 OCBC Sembcorp Marine 1.54 1.6 Hold
07/03/19 phillip UOB 26.55 30.9 Accumulate
07/03/19 Kim Eng Wilmar 3.73 4.21 Buy DCF & PER

Trump is starting to backtrack on the truce deal with China.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/u-govt-staff-told-treat-033337237.html

Huawei ban will continue to be in effect.

We have just predicted this and Trump is doing it now as he is pressured by the hawkish politicians.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/07/look-like-trump-will-renege-on-us-china.html

Mahathir is skinning Singapore again.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-blow-singapores-expansion-malaysia-035646777.html

Here we go again!

Mahathir likes to impede SG's economic developments.  He is trying to stop or delay our Tuas Mega Port construction by banning sea sand exports to SG.

We've stated before that a pro-China Malaysia is a threat to SG (Read below).

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/a-pro-china-malaysia-is-threat-to.html


Tuesday, July 2, 2019

ISM PMI analysis for the US economy in June 2019.

The PMI prices dropped in June from 53.2 to 47.9 because the US reduced its local raw material purchases (estimated -2.4) and imported more raw materials (+0.6) which were cheaper.

The inventories and supplier's deliveries declined because the manufacturing sector was just producing enough to fulfill the backlog of orders since the new order dropped in June that was caused by a fall in overseas order.  The rises in the employment, production and customers' inventories also reflected the phenomenon to fulfill existing orders instead of new orders.

The local new order (estimated +0.1) denoted that the local consumption was relatively unchanged and couldn't hold up the PMI headline number (51.7, -0.4).  The PMI has been falling for 3 consecutive months already and the 2nd QTR GDP will be much weaker than the 1st QTR GDP.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/06/ism-pmi-analysis-for-us-economy.html



Look like Trump will renege on the US-China truce deal.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/apos-don-apos-t-believe-073039714.html

The hawkish politicians are pressuring Trump to break away from the truce deal and ban Huawei in the US.  They're embarking on a smearing campaign against China and Huawei to force Trump to act.

The US has reneged on international pacts (Paris & Iran) before and won't bat an eyelid from breaking away from the truce.  The US will fabricate intelligence and create lies to serve its own political interests.  This is the characteristic of the American culture and it will never change.


Top Glove - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/11/19 Kim Eng Top Glove 1.5 1.53 Hold Ringgit target $4.60, PER24x CY20
04/17/19 UOB Kay Hian Top Glove 1.48 1.34 Hold Ringgit target $4.10, Buy @ $3.70
06/27/19 Kim Eng Top Glove 1.62 1.59 Hold Ringgit target $4.85

Tianjin Zhongxin - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
04/01/19 UOB Kay Hian Tianjin Zhongxin 0.915 1.7 Buy PER13.6x FY19
05/02/19 UOB Kay Hian Tianjin Zhongxin 0.985 1.7 Buy
06/14/19 UOB Kay Hian Tianjin Zhongxin 0.885 1.7 Buy

Thai Beverage - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/18/19 DMG & Partners Thai Beverage 0.715 0.85 Buy Sum of parts
02/13/19 CIMB Thai Beverage 0.72 0.83 Add Sum of parts
02/15/19 DBS Vickers Thai Beverage 0.72 0.87 Buy
02/18/19 UOB Kay Hian Thai Beverage 0.815 0.86 Hold Sum of parts, buy @ $0.76
02/18/19 DMG & Partners Thai Beverage 0.815 0.92 Buy Sum of parts
02/18/19 CIMB Thai Beverage 0.815 0.9 Add Sum of parts
02/18/19 OCBC Thai Beverage 0.815 0.91 Buy
02/19/19 Phillip Thai Beverage 0.82 0.81 Neutral Sum of parts
02/19/19 Amfrasers Thai Beverage 0.82 0.75 Hold
02/27/19 DBS Vickers Thai Beverage 0.81 0.94 Buy
03/14/19 UOB Kay Hian Thai Beverage 0.805 0.86 Hold Sum of parts, Buy @ $0.78
04/05/19 DMG & Partners Thai Beverage 0.825 0.92 Buy
05/13/19 Phillip Thai Beverage 0.825 0.83 Neutral Sum of parts
05/13/19 CIMB Thai Beverage 0.825 0.94 Add
05/13/19 UOB Kay Hian Thai Beverage 0.825 0.85 Hold Sum of parts, Buy @ $0.76
05/13/19 DMG & Partners Thai Beverage 0.825 0.92 Buy Sum of parts
05/13/19 OCBC Thai Beverage 0.825 0.88 Hold
05/13/19 DBS Vickers Thai Beverage 0.825 0.91 Buy Sum of parts
05/14/19 Amfrasers Thai Beverage 0.765 0.75 Hold
05/28/19 OCBC Thai Beverage 0.805 0.86 Hold
06/06/19 DMG & Partners Thai Beverage 0.84 0.92 Buy Sum of parts, PER23x
06/06/19 DBS Vickers Thai Beverage 0.84 0.91 Buy

Stock calls for 2 July 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
07/02/19 DMG & Partners Breadtalk 0.75 0.81 Neutral
07/02/19 Kim Eng Bumitama 0.63 1.01 Buy
07/02/19 DMG & Partners Dairy Farm 7.29 8.25 Neutral
07/02/19 OCBC DBS 26.6 29.2 Buy GGM, PB1.4x, PER14.7x
07/02/19 Kim Eng First Resources 1.6 1.93 Buy
07/02/19 Kim Eng OCBC 11.59 11.07 Hold
07/02/19 DMG & Partners Sheng Siong 1.1 1.23 Buy
07/02/19 Kim Eng SIA Engineering 2.51 2.85 Buy
07/02/19 UOB Kay Hian Singapore Post 0.965 1.04 Hold Sum of parts, Buy @ $0.88
07/02/19 CIMB Suntec Reit 1.95 2.15 Add DDM
07/02/19 DBS Vickers Suntec Reit 1.95 2.2 Buy DCF
07/02/19 OCBC UOB 26.61 29.4 Buy GGM, PB1.3x, PER11.3x

The semiconductor is facing a collapse. - Part 5

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/02/us-china-tech-war-causing-chinese-semiconductor-firms-to-develop-chips.html

We projected the semiconductor outcome in 2018 and the venture capitalist saw it happening in 2019.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/10/the-global-semiconductor-slowdown-is.html


Monday, July 1, 2019

Korea-Japan trade war has just begun!

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/japan-toughen-restrictions-exports-south-030402201.html

Notwithstanding the US-China trade war, 2 Asian giants, South Korea & Japan, have started another trade war because of the historical feud.

The US won't allow the Korea-Japan trade war to escalate because this will hurt the US strategic alliance in the South China Sea.  The US needs Korea and Japan to work together to contain China military advancement in the South China Sea.

I'm pretty confident that the US will act as a mediator between Korea & Japan to resolve this trade war.

Talkmed - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/07/19 DMG & Partners Talkmed 0.59 0.64 Neutral
02/21/19 DMG & Partners Talkmed 0.58 0.62 Neutral DCF
04/29/19 DMG & Partners Talkmed 0.51 0.62 Buy DCF

Suntec Reit - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/23/19 OCBC Suntec Reit 1.86 1.83 Hold
01/24/19 DBS Vickers Suntec Reit 1.87 2.12 Buy DCF
01/24/19 OCBC Suntec Reit 1.87 1.84 Hold
01/24/19 DMG & Partners Suntec Reit 1.87 1.9 Neutral DDM
01/24/19 Jefferies Suntec Reit 1.87 1.85 Hold Up from $1.80
01/28/19 UOB Kay Hian Suntec Reit 1.93 2.01 Hold Buy @ $1.83
01/28/19 CIMB Suntec Reit 1.93 2.06 Add
03/18/19 DMG & Partners Suntec Reit 1.93 1.9 Neutral
04/02/19 DBS Vickers Suntec Reit 1.96 2.12 Buy
04/24/19 OCBC Suntec Reit 1.86 1.84 Hold
04/25/19 OCBC Suntec Reit 1.89 1.83 Hold DDM
05/28/19 CIMB Suntec Reit 1.82 2.06 Add
05/30/19 OCBC Suntec Reit 1.82 1.99 Hold Buy @ $1.81
06/20/19 DMG & Partners Suntec Reit 1.92 1.9 Neutral DDM

Sunpower - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/10/19 UOB Kay Hian Sunpower 0.385 0.76 Buy Sum of parts
03/01/19 UOB Kay Hian Sunpower 0.585 0.88 Buy Sum of parts

Stock calls for 1July 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
07/01/19 Kim Eng DBS 25.96 29.46 Buy
07/01/19 UOB Kay Hian DBS 25.96 30.5 Buy
07/01/19 CIMB ISDN 0.235 0.32 Add
07/01/19 UOB Kay Hian OCBC 11.4 14.62 Buy
07/01/19 Kim Eng UOB 26.13 28.97 Buy

President Trump is the man behind wall street. - Part 2

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/06/president-trump-is-man-behind-wall.html

Trump did everything he could to make sure that the trade talk didn't fall out.

He didn't insist on his previous terms (no mention of IP theft, forced technology transfer, change of China laws to accommodate his demands, etc).

He didn't mention HK at all in the trade talk.

He didn't impose new tariffs against China.

Why is Trump getting soft on China?

We have come up with a few reasons for Trump's meekness.

1. The top US business leaders are rallying their demands for "No China tariffs".
2. The 2nd QTR GDP will look bad.
3. Many Americans cannot enjoy Christmas if there are more China tariffs.
4. Farmers are suffering and losing their China market share.
5. Trump's popularity is dropping fast and furious.

Saturday, June 29, 2019

Many analysts were dead wrong about Vietnam benefitting from the US-China trade war.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/vietnam-says-committed-to--free-and-fair--trade-after-trump-tariff-threat-11671716

Trump has threatened to impose tariffs against Vietnam.

We differed from many analysts over the view that Vietnam would benefit from the US-China trade war.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2018/11/do-thailand-and-vietnam-really-benefit.html

We had stated our view in our previous post above.  Smaller nations like Vietnam and Thai do not have the same clout as China to ward off the US tariffs because their economies and military prowess are not in the same league as China.  They will be bullied by the US and they will bend to US demands.  Vietnam is in trouble now.