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Monday, July 22, 2019

CEI - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/13/19 CIMB CEI 0.945 0.97 Hold PER10x FY20

Stock calls for 22 July 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
07/22/19 Phillip A-Reit 3.03 2.88 Neutral
07/22/19 phillip Cache Logistics 0.785 0.75 Neutral
07/22/19 Phillip CapitaCommercial 2.15 2.18 Neutral DDM
07/22/19 Phillip Capitamall Trust 2.64 2.21 Neutral
07/22/19 Phillip CapitaRetail China 1.59 1.66 Accumulate
07/22/19 DMG & Partners Comfortdelgro 2.8 2.65 Neutral DCF
07/22/19 phillip Dasin Retail 0.875 0.94 Accumulate
07/22/19 phillip EC World Reit 0.755 0.87 Buy
07/22/19 UOB Kay Hian Far East Hospitality 0.685 0.82 Buy DDM
07/22/19 Phillip Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.65 2.36 Neutral
07/22/19 Amfrasers Keppel Corp 6.57 7.43 Neutral Sum of parts
07/22/19 DBS Vickers Keppel Corp 6.57 8.5 Buy Sum of parts
07/22/19 Phillip Mapletree Industrial 2.31 2.03 Neutral
07/22/19 OCBC SATS 5 5.28 Hold FCFF
07/22/19 phillip SATS 5 5.47 Accumulate
07/22/19 Lim & Tan SATS 5 0 Hold
07/22/19 CIMB UOB 26.94 29.58 Add
07/22/19 Kim Eng Venture 15.54 19.74 Buy Roe-g/Coe-g

Stay away from Hong Kong!

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/law-and-crime/article/3019524/least-10-injured-baton-wielding-mob-suspected-triad

Rioters are hitting people indiscriminately in HK.

Do not visit HK for the time being for your own safety.

Sunday, July 21, 2019

Singapore based Flextronics is kicked out of Huawei's supply chain.

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2019-07-18/Huawei-kicks-its-top-phone-assembler-out-of-the-supply-chain-Ir4fTFS79S/index.html

Huawei has kicked Flextronics out of its supply chain. Although Flextronics is a Singapore based company, it is actually an American firm.  Huawei is a major customer of Flextronics and losing such a big customer will impact heavily on its earnings.

Flextronics may also be added to China's unreliable entity list and will be shut out of China's market.

Trump's racist remarks are winning him votes!

Trump is a racist, insolent and perverted curmudgeon but he is winning votes for being a white supremacist.  By keeping the anguish of his white nationalists high, he is likely to be re-elected because the majority of the white people have such core values and mindsets.

"Send her back" has become a catchphrase of his white nationalists.  In fact, this racist and xenophobic propaganda has raised his support within his own party according to a recent poll.

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-canada-49034885/ilhan-omar-send-her-back-chants-at-trump-rally

If Trump is re-elected with this racist election campaign, it really reflects the mindsets and core values of the Americans.  Therefore, we must take cognizance of this reality and be careful about how we deal with the Americans in the future.

Saturday, July 20, 2019

China released spy satellite images of US airforce near Iran.

https://mil.news.sina.com.cn/china/2019-07-16/doc-ihytcerm4066453.shtml

China is helping Iran by monitoring the US airforce buildup near Iran with its own spy satellites.

China even interpreted the images for Iran and predicted the whereabouts of F35 and F22.

This will help Iran to better deploy its air defence missiles systems.  We also must not forget Russia which will help Iran too.

Baltic dry index - 2170

Today, Friday, July 19 2019, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 40 points, reaching 2170 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
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Related stock: SembCorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 954

Related stock: Keppel Corp, SembCorp Marine & Cosco.

Friday, July 19, 2019

CDL Hospitality - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/02/19 DMG & Partners CDL Hospitality 1.46 1.8 Buy DDM
01/02/19 CIMB CDL Hospitality 1.46 1.63 Add
01/17/19 Kim Eng CDL Hospitality 1.56 1.75 Buy
01/22/19 UOB Kay Hian CDL Hospitality 1.56 1.83 Buy
01/31/19 CIMB CDL Hospitality 1.63 1.64 Add DDM
01/31/19 Kim Eng CDL Hospitality 1.63 1.8 Buy DDM
01/31/19 OCBC CDL Hospitality 1.63 1.56 Hold
01/31/19 DBS Vickers CDL Hospitality 1.63 1.85 Buy DCF
02/11/19 CIMB CDL Hospitality 1.62 1.8 Add
02/28/19 Kim Eng CDL Hospitality 1.6 1.8 Buy
03/13/19 DMG & Partners CDL Hospitality 1.63 1.8 Buy
03/26/19 CIMB CDL Hospitality 1.64 1.8 Add
04/04/19 Kim Eng CDL Hospitality 1.65 1.85 Buy
04/09/19 DMG & Partners CDL Hospitality 1.67 1.8 Buy
05/02/19 DMG & Partners CDL Hospitality 1.6 1.77 Buy DDM
05/02/19 Kim Eng CDL Hospitality 1.6 1.8 Buy DDM
05/02/19 OCBC CDL Hospitality 1.6 1.54 Hold
05/02/19 DBS Vickers CDL Hospitality 1.6 1.85 Buy
05/02/19 UOB Kay Hian CDL Hospitality 1.6 1.99 Buy
05/03/19 CIMB CDL Hospitality 1.61 1.85 Add DDM
06/06/19 DMG & Partners CDL Hospitality 1.61 1.77 Buy
06/11/19 UOB Kay Hian CDL Hospitality 1.62 2.06 Buy DDM
06/25/19 Kim Eng CDL Hospitality 1.62 1.8 Buy
07/04/19 DMG & Partners CDL Hospitality 1.66 1.77 Buy
07/15/19 UOB Kay Hian CDL Hospitality 1.65 2.06 Buy

CapitaRetail China - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/04/19 OCBC CapitaRetail China 1.48 1.42 Hold
02/04/19 DBS Vickers CapitaRetail China 1.48 1.65 Buy DCF
02/15/19 Phillip CapitaRetail China 1.39 1.66 Accumulate
03/21/19 Amfrasers CapitaRetail China 1.52 1.61 Buy DDM
04/03/19 DBS Vickers CapitaRetail China 1.57 1.65 Buy
04/26/19 OCBC CapitaRetail China 1.51 1.5 Hold
06/11/19 OCBC CapitaRetail China 1.56 1.5 Hold
06/12/19 OCBC CapitaRetail China 1.53 1.35 Sell
06/12/19 DBS Vickers CapitaRetail China 1.53 1.65 Buy
06/12/19 Lim & Tan CapitaRetail China 1.53 0 Hold
06/14/19 OCBC CapitaRetail China 1.5 1.38 Hold
06/19/19 Phillip CapitaRetail China 1.55 1.66 Accumulate

Capitamall Trust - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/22/19 CIMB Capitamall Trust 2.26 2.29 Hold DDM
01/23/19 OCBC Capitamall Trust 2.27 2.12 Hold
01/24/19 Phillip Capitamall Trust 2.31 2.09 Neutral DDM, PB1.06x FY19
01/24/19 Kim Eng Capitamall Trust 2.31 2.25 Hold DDM
01/24/19 OCBC Capitamall Trust 2.31 2.25 Hold
01/24/19 DBS Vickers Capitamall Trust 2.31 2.44 Buy
01/28/19 UOB Kay Hian Capitamall Trust 2.36 2.02 Hold Buy @ $1.84
02/15/19 Phillip Capitamall Trust 2.38 2.09 Neutral
02/28/19 Kim Eng Capitamall Trust 2.42 2.25 Hold
03/14/19 DMG & Partners Capitamall Trust 2.39 2.2 Neutral DDM
04/04/19 Kim Eng Capitamall Trust 2.41 2.4 Hold DDM
04/24/19 OCBC Capitamall Trust 2.32 2.25 Hold
04/25/19 DBS Vickers Capitamall Trust 2.36 2.55 Buy
04/25/19 OCBC Capitamall Trust 2.36 2.32 Hold
04/26/19 Phillip Capitamall Trust 2.39 2.21 Neutral DDM
04/26/19 CIMB Capitamall Trust 2.39 2.39 Hold DDM
05/27/19 UOB Kay Hian Capitamall Trust 2.44 2.65 Buy DDM
06/06/19 OCBC Capitamall Trust 2.46 2.33 Hold
06/19/19 Phillip Capitamall Trust 2.57 2.21 Neutral
06/21/19 UOB Kay Hian Capitamall Trust 2.58 2.65 Hold
06/25/19 Kim Eng Capitamall Trust 2.6 2.4 Hold
07/04/19 DMG & Partners Capitamall Trust 2.71 2.2 Neutral

Stock calls for 19 July 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
07/19/19 DBS Vickers AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit 1.46 1.5 Buy DCF
07/19/19 DBS Vickers Cache Logistics 0.78 0.75 Hold DCF
07/19/19 DMG & Partners CapitaCommercial 2.15 1.98 Neutral DDM
07/19/19 DBS Vickers Hi-P 1.43 1.41 Hold PER12x FY19
07/19/19 DMG & Partners Keppel Corp 6.59 7.3 Buy Sum of parts
07/19/19 CIMB Keppel Corp 6.59 8.41 Add
07/19/19 UOB Kay Hian Keppel Corp 6.59 7.61 Buy
07/19/19 Lim & Tan Keppel Corp 6.59 0 Hold
07/19/19 DBS Vickers Mapletree Commercial 2.07 2.25 Buy DCF
07/19/19 DBS Vickers Mapletree Logistics 1.61 1.85 Buy
07/19/19 DBS Vickers Mapletree North Asia 1.45 1.65 Buy DCF
07/19/19 DBS Vickers MM2 Asia 0.23 0.34 Buy PER16x FY20
07/19/19 UOB Kay Hian SATS 5.32 4.8 Sell
07/19/19 DBS Vickers SATS 5.32 5 Hold DCF
07/19/19 CIMB SATS 5.32 5.4 Hold PER21.9x CY20
07/19/19 UOB Kay Hian Soilbuild Reit 0.615 0.6 Hold
07/19/19 DBS Vickers Soilbuild Reit 0.615 0.63 Hold DCF

China has started to sell US treasuries. - Part 5

https://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/3018924/chinas-may-holdings-us-treasuries-dip-third-straight-month-two

China sold US treasuries in May 2019 again.

We've explained the selloff in our post below.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/06/china-has-started-to-sell-us-treasuries.html


Thursday, July 18, 2019

Capitaland - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/02/19 DMG & Partners Capitaland 3.11 4 Buy
01/03/19 OCBC Capitaland 3.07 3.96 Buy RNAV (20% discount)
01/07/19 CIMB Capitaland 3.06 3.55 Add RNAV (35% discount)
01/15/19 DBS Vickers Capitaland 3.27 3.62 Buy
01/15/19 Phillip Capitaland 3.27 4 Accumulate RNAV (20% discount), PB0.75x FY18
02/20/19 Lim & Tan Capitaland 3.39 0 Buy
02/21/19 OCBC Capitaland 3.43 3.98 Buy RNAV
02/21/19 Phillip Capitaland 3.43 4 Accumulate PB0.75x FY19
02/21/19 CIMB Capitaland 3.43 3.56 Add RNAV (35% discount)
02/21/19 DBS Vickers Capitaland 3.43 3.62 Buy
03/18/19 OCBC Capitaland 3.44 3.98 Buy
03/21/19 Lim & Tan Capitaland 3.47 0 Buy
03/26/19 CIMB Capitaland 3.44 3.56 Add
04/01/19 UOB Kay Hian Capitaland 3.65 4.4 Buy
04/02/19 Macquarie Capitaland 3.69 3.9 Outperform RNAV (30% discount)
04/02/19 OCBC Capitaland 3.69 3.98 Buy
05/02/19 Phillip Capitaland 3.53 4 Accumulate RNAV (20% discount)
05/02/19 Lim & Tan Capitaland 3.53 0 Hold
05/03/19 OCBC Capitaland 3.54 4.04 Buy
05/03/19 CIMB Capitaland 3.54 3.56 Add
05/27/19 DBS Vickers Capitaland 3.28 4 Buy RNAV (25% discount)
06/12/19 DBS Vickers Capitaland 3.41 4 Buy
06/18/19 Macquarie Capitaland 3.42 4.1 Outperform RNAV (25% discount)
07/05/19 DBS Vickers Capitaland 3.69 4 Buy
07/15/19 Phillip Capitaland 3.69 4 Accumulate
07/15/19 CIMB Capitaland 3.69 4.15 Add RNAV (35% discount)
07/15/19 OCBC Capitaland 3.69 4.04 Buy

CapitaCommercial - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/04/19 Phillip CapitaCommercial 1.75 1.9 Accumulate
01/14/19 UOB Kay Hian CapitaCommercial 1.82 2.11 Buy DDM
01/24/19 OCBC CapitaCommercial 1.83 1.68 Hold
01/25/19 UOB Kay Hian CapitaCommercial 1.85 2.16 Buy DDM
01/25/19 DMG & Partners CapitaCommercial 1.85 1.86 Neutral DDM
01/25/19 DBS Vickers CapitaCommercial 1.85 2 Buy DCF
01/25/19 Lim & Tan CapitaCommercial 1.85 0 Hold
01/28/19 OCBC CapitaCommercial 1.9 1.83 Hold
01/28/19 CIMB CapitaCommercial 1.9 1.94 Add
02/15/19 Phillip CapitaCommercial 1.86 1.93 Accumulate
03/18/19 DMG & Partners CapitaCommercial 1.98 1.86 Neutral
03/26/19 UOB Kay Hian CapitaCommercial 1.92 2.16 Buy
04/22/19 Phillip CapitaCommercial 1.93 1.93 Neutral DDM, PB1.05x
04/22/19 DMG & Partners CapitaCommercial 1.93 1.86 Neutral DDM
04/22/19 OCBC CapitaCommercial 1.93 1.88 Hold
04/22/19 CIMB CapitaCommercial 1.93 2.03 Add DDM
04/22/19 UOB Kay Hian CapitaCommercial 1.93 2.16 Buy
04/22/19 DBS Vickers CapitaCommercial 1.93 2.1 Buy DCF
04/22/19 Lim & Tan CapitaCommercial 1.93 0 Hold
05/13/19 UOB Kay Hian CapitaCommercial 1.9 2.16 Buy
05/17/19 DBS Vickers CapitaCommercial 1.93 2.1 Buy DCF, PB1.15x
05/30/19 UOB Kay Hian CapitaCommercial 1.95 2.16 Buy
06/13/19 UOB Kay Hian CapitaCommercial 2.05 2.16 Buy
06/19/19 Phillip CapitaCommercial 2.11 1.93 Neutral
06/24/19 OCBC CapitaCommercial 2.14 1.88 Sell
07/04/19 DMG & Partners CapitaCommercial 2.23 1.86 Neutral
07/17/19 OCBC CapitaCommercial 2.18 1.88 Sell
07/17/19 Lim & Tan CapitaCommercial 2.18 0 Hold
07/18/19 UOB Kay Hian CapitaCommercial 2.17 2.17 Hold DDM, Buy @ $1.98
07/18/19 DBS Vickers CapitaCommercial 2.17 2.4 Buy DCF
07/18/19 Kim Eng CapitaCommercial 2.17 1.8 Hold
07/18/19 OCBC CapitaCommercial 2.17 1.92 Sell
07/18/19 CIMB CapitaCommercial 2.17 2.25 Add

Cache Logistics - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/28/19 phillip Cache Logistics 0.75 0.75 Neutral DDM, PB1.14x FY19
01/28/19 DBS Vickers Cache Logistics 0.75 0.75 Hold DCF
01/28/19 OCBC Cache Logistics 0.75 0.76 Hold
01/28/19 DMG & Partners Cache Logistics 0.75 0.81 Buy DDM
01/28/19 CIMB Cache Logistics 0.75 0.74 Hold
01/28/19 Kim Eng Cache Logistics 0.75 0.85 Buy
02/15/19 phillip Cache Logistics 0.71 0.75 Neutral
03/18/19 DMG & Partners Cache Logistics 0.72 0.81 Buy
04/18/19 OCBC Cache Logistics 0.72 0.7 Hold
04/26/19 OCBC Cache Logistics 0.745 0.74 Hold
04/26/19 Kim Eng Cache Logistics 0.745 0.88 Buy
04/26/19 DBS Vickers Cache Logistics 0.745 0.75 Hold DCF
04/26/19 CIMB Cache Logistics 0.745 0.74 Hold
06/17/19 DMG & Partners Cache Logistics 0.77 0.83 Buy DDM
06/19/19 phillip Cache Logistics 0.79 0.75 Neutral
07/04/19 DMG & Partners Cache Logistics 0.785 0.83 Buy

Stock calls for 18 July 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
07/18/19 CIMB AEM 1.04 1.23 Add PER10x FY20
07/18/19 UOB Kay Hian CapitaCommercial 2.17 2.17 Hold DDM, Buy @ $1.98
07/18/19 DBS Vickers CapitaCommercial 2.17 2.4 Buy DCF
07/18/19 Kim Eng CapitaCommercial 2.17 1.8 Hold
07/18/19 OCBC CapitaCommercial 2.17 1.92 Sell
07/18/19 CIMB CapitaCommercial 2.17 2.25 Add
07/18/19 Phillip Keppel DC Reit 1.73 1.71 Hold DDM
07/18/19 CIMB Keppel DC Reit 1.73 1.67 Hold DDM
07/18/19 DBS Vickers Keppel KBS 0.82 0.9 Buy
07/18/19 Lim & Tan Soilbuild Reit 0.61 0 Hold
07/18/19 DBS Vickers Yangzijiang 1.5 1.82 Buy

A banking crisis is developing in Vietnam.

The US-China trade war is causing a banking crisis to develop in Vietnam.  Why?

In order to avoid the US-China trade tariffs, many businesses are shifting their manufacturing and production factories to Vietnam.  This relocation phenomenon has caused the ire of the US and Trump has imposed 456% on Vietnam's steels re-exports.  Trump looks ready to impose more tariffs against Vietnam for other goods.

As Vietnam has a very lax bank lending regulation, many foreign businesses borrow from local banks to build factories and ramp up their productions.  If the made-in-Vietnam products are taxed with additional tariffs by the US, Vietnam's exports will drop drastically and this will impact the banking industry in Vietnam because the non-performing loans will increase tremendously.

Vietnam, with just a population of 97m, won't be able to fight the trade war against the US and has to compromise to buy more US goods to avoid the additional tariffs.

A possible bank run at Deutsche Bank?

Deutsche Bank has a simmering bank run situation now.  Why?

Although Deutsche Bank is an investment bank and not a retail bank, it is facing a simmering cash flow problem because many hedge fund managers are withdrawing their funds from Deutsche Bank.  The hedge fund managers are afraid that they won't be able to withdraw their funds if they don't act fast as they've heard of the massive withdrawal problem at Deutsche Bank.  The hedge fund managers know that Deutsche Bank is not doing well now and has to retrench 18,000 employees.

Deutsche Bank is a bank that is too big to fail because it will affect the global banking system and is much bigger than Lehman Brothers.

Wednesday, July 17, 2019

Bumitama - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/03/19 UOB Kay Hian Bumitama 0.67 0.81 Buy
02/12/19 UOB Kay Hian Bumitama 0.685 0.81 Buy PER11x FY19
02/21/19 Kim Eng Bumitama 0.69 0.96 Buy
02/26/19 DMG & Partners Bumitama 0.67 0.67 Neutral PER11x FY19
02/27/19 Kim Eng Bumitama 0.675 0.97 Buy PER13x FY19
02/28/19 DBS Vickers Bumitama 0.665 0.85 Buy DCF, PER13.9x FY19
04/08/19 UOB Kay Hian Bumitama 0.725 0.81 Buy
05/15/19 UOB Kay Hian Bumitama 0.69 0.81 Buy
05/15/19 DBS Vickers Bumitama 0.69 0.8 Buy DCF, PER18x FY19
05/17/19 DMG & Partners Bumitama 0.7 0.62 Neutral
05/24/19 UOB Kay Hian Bumitama 0.69 0.81 Hold
06/06/19 DMG & Partners Bumitama 0.665 0.62 Neutral
06/27/19 UOB Kay Hian Bumitama 0.615 0.81 Buy
07/02/19 Kim Eng Bumitama 0.63 1.01 Buy
07/16/19 DBS Vickers Bumitama 0.605 0.75 Buy DCF