Sunday, August 4, 2019
The US trade-talk team didn't get the message that China was sending in Shanghai.
A picture tells a thousand words! How true it is!
The ancient Chinese poetry on the wall had a hidden message which China was trying to send to the US team but the US team didn't understand the implied meaning because there was no Chinese expert on its team.
The poetry was depicting a magnificent mountain and the cloud came along to create a more picturesque view. The cloud could come and go but the mountain would still be magnificent and picturesque as ever without the cloud.
The implied meaning from the poetry was that China didn't care about whether the US team did come for the trade talk because China would still be doing fine without the trade deal.
The US team didn't understand the poetry on the wall and the meeting broke down in less than 4 hours because it continued with its unreasonable US demands.
Trump is in trouble because China is no longer interested to buy US agricultural products.
China has increased agricultural and farming products from Russia and Argentina recently and the purchases are spearheaded by Zhong Shan, the commence minister.
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3019187/china-and-russia-vow-deepen-trade-soybeans-after-tariff-war
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-argentina-soyproducts-china-exclusive/exclusive-china-to-inspect-argentine-crushers-could-unlock-no-1-soymeal-market-idUSKCN1UP1WT
Zhong Shan is a hawkish Chinese and is ordered by President Xi to take over the US-China trade talk from Liu He who is dovish. The US team must be regretting now for not concluding the trade talk with Liu He. The US team is facing Zhong Shan now and the trade talk will be very difficult to reach a settlement because he will walk away from any unfair and unreasonable US demand. Zhong Shan will take on the additional US tariffs and impose China tariffs too.
Trump is foolish to think that China will back down now. I believe Trump will back down instead because his tariffs will affect the upcoming festivals such as Thanksgiving and Christmas. He will lose a lot of votes when his supporters cannot enjoy their festivals since consumer good prices will rise tremendously after the tariffs.
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3019187/china-and-russia-vow-deepen-trade-soybeans-after-tariff-war
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-argentina-soyproducts-china-exclusive/exclusive-china-to-inspect-argentine-crushers-could-unlock-no-1-soymeal-market-idUSKCN1UP1WT
Zhong Shan is a hawkish Chinese and is ordered by President Xi to take over the US-China trade talk from Liu He who is dovish. The US team must be regretting now for not concluding the trade talk with Liu He. The US team is facing Zhong Shan now and the trade talk will be very difficult to reach a settlement because he will walk away from any unfair and unreasonable US demand. Zhong Shan will take on the additional US tariffs and impose China tariffs too.
Trump is foolish to think that China will back down now. I believe Trump will back down instead because his tariffs will affect the upcoming festivals such as Thanksgiving and Christmas. He will lose a lot of votes when his supporters cannot enjoy their festivals since consumer good prices will rise tremendously after the tariffs.
Saturday, August 3, 2019
The Strait Times Index (STI) has a high probability to close in the red in August.
I took the effort to compile the monthly gains for the past years and realized that the STI always performed badly in August since 2012.
This pattern looks set to repeat itself in August after Trump's china tariffs announcement.
Baltic dry index - 1788
Today, Friday, August 02 2019, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 24 points, reaching 1788 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
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Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean
Friday, August 2, 2019
ISM PMI analysis for the US economy in July 2019.
The price of a product is affected by raw material and labour costs. Although the imported raw materials were supposed to be cheaper than local materials, the producers chose to reduce the imported materials and purchase more local materials. This behaviour might be tariff-related. However, the reduction in employment had helped to defray the cost and reduced the PMI prices from 47.9 to 45.1. The upcoming employment data will fall, judging from the PMI employment sub-index number.
The new export and local orders will crumble if Trump imposes the additional tariffs on 1 September since consumer goods are being targeted this time and China has not announced its retaliatory US tariffs. This July PMI is no longer relevant because of the escalating tariffs from both countries.
https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/trump-to-impose-additional-tariffs-on.html
In conclusion, the headline PMI figure has been falling for 4 consecutive months already.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/07/ism-pmi-analysis-for-us-economy-in-june.html
Frasers Commercial Trust - Stock calls
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
01/18/19 | DBS Vickers | Frasers Commercial Trust | 1.47 | 1.7 | Buy | |
01/21/19 | OCBC | Frasers Commercial Trust | 1.45 | 1.56 | Buy | |
01/21/19 | CIMB | Frasers Commercial Trust | 1.45 | 1.5 | Hold | DDM |
01/21/19 | Lim & Tan | Frasers Commercial Trust | 1.45 | 0 | Hold | |
03/18/19 | DMG & Partners | Frasers Commercial Trust | 1.47 | 1.5 | Neutral | |
04/08/19 | DBS Vickers | Frasers Commercial Trust | 1.47 | 1.7 | Buy | |
04/24/19 | DMG & Partners | Frasers Commercial Trust | 1.49 | 1.5 | Neutral | DDM |
04/24/19 | OCBC | Frasers Commercial Trust | 1.49 | 1.58 | Buy | |
04/24/19 | CIMB | Frasers Commercial Trust | 1.49 | 1.5 | Hold | DDM |
06/06/19 | DBS Vickers | Frasers Commercial Trust | 1.51 | 1.7 | Buy | |
06/26/19 | OCBC | Frasers Commercial Trust | 1.58 | 1.69 | Buy | |
06/26/19 | CIMB | Frasers Commercial Trust | 1.58 | 1.64 | Add | DDM |
06/27/19 | DMG & Partners | Frasers Commercial Trust | 1.66 | 1.65 | Neutral | DDM |
07/04/19 | DMG & Partners | Frasers Commercial Trust | 1.68 | 1.65 | Neutral | |
07/12/19 | DBS Vickers | Frasers Commercial Trust | 1.65 | 1.7 | Hold | DCF |
07/22/19 | OCBC | Frasers Commercial Trust | 1.64 | 1.7 | Hold |
Frasers Centrepoint Trust - Stock calls
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
01/17/19 | Kim Eng | Frasers Centrepoint Trust | 2.27 | 2.55 | Buy | DDM |
01/22/19 | Lim & Tan | Frasers Centrepoint Trust | 2.26 | 0 | Hold | |
01/22/19 | OCBC | Frasers Centrepoint Trust | 2.26 | 2.5 | Buy | |
01/23/19 | Phillip | Frasers Centrepoint Trust | 2.27 | 2.21 | Neutral | DDM, PB1.09x FY19 |
01/23/19 | DBS Vickers | Frasers Centrepoint Trust | 2.27 | 2.4 | Buy | |
01/28/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Frasers Centrepoint Trust | 2.29 | 2.32 | Buy | |
01/28/19 | CIMB | Frasers Centrepoint Trust | 2.29 | 2.35 | Add | DDM |
02/15/19 | Phillip | Frasers Centrepoint Trust | 2.24 | 2.21 | Neutral | |
02/28/19 | Kim Eng | Frasers Centrepoint Trust | 2.3 | 2.55 | Buy | |
03/01/19 | OCBC | Frasers Centrepoint Trust | 2.29 | 2.5 | Buy | |
03/01/19 | DBS Vickers | Frasers Centrepoint Trust | 2.29 | 2.4 | Buy | DCF |
03/14/19 | DBS Vickers | Frasers Centrepoint Trust | 2.26 | 2.6 | Buy | |
03/18/19 | DMG & Partners | Frasers Centrepoint Trust | 2.28 | 2.19 | Neutral | |
04/03/19 | DBS Vickers | Frasers Centrepoint Trust | 2.38 | 2.6 | Buy | |
04/04/19 | Kim Eng | Frasers Centrepoint Trust | 2.36 | 2.6 | Buy | |
04/24/19 | Lim & Tan | Frasers Centrepoint Trust | 2.36 | 0 | Buy | |
04/25/19 | DMG & Partners | Frasers Centrepoint Trust | 2.36 | 2.19 | Neutral | DDM |
04/25/19 | OCBC | Frasers Centrepoint Trust | 2.36 | 2.61 | Buy | DDM |
04/26/19 | Phillip | Frasers Centrepoint Trust | 2.37 | 2.31 | Neutral | DDM |
05/17/19 | OCBC | Frasers Centrepoint Trust | 2.45 | 2.61 | Buy | |
05/17/19 | DMG & Partners | Frasers Centrepoint Trust | 2.45 | 2.25 | Neutral | |
05/17/19 | CIMB | Frasers Centrepoint Trust | 2.45 | 2.55 | Add | DDM |
05/21/19 | Kim Eng | Frasers Centrepoint Trust | 2.4 | 2.6 | Buy | |
05/23/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Frasers Centrepoint Trust | 2.41 | 2.71 | Buy | |
05/24/19 | Phillip | Frasers Centrepoint Trust | 2.44 | 2.36 | Neutral | DDM |
06/06/19 | DMG & Partners | Frasers Centrepoint Trust | 2.52 | 2.25 | Neutral | |
06/10/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Frasers Centrepoint Trust | 2.52 | 2.71 | Buy | |
06/19/19 | Phillip | Frasers Centrepoint Trust | 2.61 | 2.36 | Neutral | |
06/21/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Frasers Centrepoint Trust | 2.55 | 2.72 | Buy | |
06/24/19 | DBS Vickers | Frasers Centrepoint Trust | 2.54 | 2.85 | Buy | |
06/24/19 | Amfrasers | Frasers Centrepoint Trust | 2.54 | 2.33 | Neutral | DDM |
06/25/19 | Kim Eng | Frasers Centrepoint Trust | 2.59 | 2.6 | Buy | |
07/04/19 | DMG & Partners | Frasers Centrepoint Trust | 2.64 | 2.25 | Neutral | |
07/12/19 | DBS Vickers | Frasers Centrepoint Trust | 2.64 | 2.95 | Buy | |
07/16/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Frasers Centrepoint Trust | 2.62 | 2.72 | Buy | |
07/22/19 | Phillip | Frasers Centrepoint Trust | 2.65 | 2.36 | Neutral | |
07/24/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Frasers Centrepoint Trust | 2.65 | 2.66 | Hold | DDM, Buy @ $2.42 |
07/24/19 | Kim Eng | Frasers Centrepoint Trust | 2.65 | 2.8 | Buy | DDM |
07/24/19 | OCBC | Frasers Centrepoint Trust | 2.65 | 2.69 | Hold | |
07/24/19 | CIMB | Frasers Centrepoint Trust | 2.65 | 2.79 | Add | DDM |
07/24/19 | Lim & Tan | Frasers Centrepoint Trust | 2.65 | 0 | Hold | |
07/26/19 | Amfrasers | Frasers Centrepoint Trust | 2.63 | 2.51 | Neutral | |
07/29/19 | Phillip | Frasers Centrepoint Trust | 2.68 | 2.77 | Accumulate | DDM |
Fortune Reit - Stock calls
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
01/25/19 | DBS Vickers | Fortune Reit | 9.8 | 10.68 | Buy | |
01/29/19 | DBS Vickers | Fortune Reit | 9.7 | 10.76 | Buy | |
03/06/19 | DBS Vickers | Fortune Reit | 9.8 | 10.76 | Buy | |
06/21/19 | DBS Vickers | Fortune Reit | 10.66 | 11.8 | Buy | DDM |
Stock calls for 2 August 2019
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
08/02/19 | Phillip | A-Reit | 3.04 | 3.31 | Accumulate | DDM |
08/02/19 | DIR | ART | 1.32 | 1.34 | Outperform | |
08/02/19 | Kim Eng | ART | 1.32 | 1.3 | Hold | |
08/02/19 | Phillip | ART | 1.32 | 1.36 | Accumulate | DDM |
08/02/19 | DBS Vickers | Breadtalk | 0.715 | 0.77 | Hold | Sum of parts |
08/02/19 | Amfrasers | CapitaRetail China | 1.55 | 1.68 | Outperform | |
08/02/19 | DBS Vickers | Dairy Farm | 7.38 | 7.99 | Hold | |
08/02/19 | Lim & Tan | Hock Lian Seng | 0.33 | 0 | Buy on weakness | |
08/02/19 | DBS Vickers | Hongkong Land | 6.09 | 7.93 | Buy | |
08/02/19 | Lim & Tan | OCBC | 11.42 | 0 | Buy on weakness | |
08/02/19 | phillip | SGX | 7.78 | 8.09 | Accumulate | PER21x |
08/02/19 | CIMB | SIA | 9.2 | 10.04 | Hold | PB0.9x CY19 |
08/02/19 | DMG & Partners | Starhill | 0.78 | 0.78 | Neutral | DDM |
08/02/19 | DMG & Partners | UOB | 26.28 | 29.5 | Buy | GGM, PB1.24x FY20 |
08/02/19 | Lim & Tan | UOB | 26.28 | 0 | Buy on weakness |
Trump to impose additional tariffs on US$300B of China goods on 1 September 2019.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/asian-markets-sink-as-us-china-trade-tensions-ramp-back-up-2019-08-01?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo
We warned our readers that the US-China trade talk broke down in July. However, the politicians and media sugar-coated the trade fallout with a "Constructive" talk.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/us-china-trade-talk-broke-down-again-in.html
How did we come to the conclusion that the US-China trade talk broke down?
We always have this belief that the demon is hidden in the details and we look into the timeline of the US-China trade talk. The US-China trade talk ended in just 4 hours in Shanghai and this was a tell-tale sign that both parties had a big fallout during the meeting because nothing could be settled in just 4 hours. The US team left shanghai immediately after the fallout meeting and both parties started to accuse each other of flip-flopping thereafter.
However, the media just publicized that the US-China trade talk was constructive.
The US GDP will drop further in Q3 & Q4 after these additional tariffs against China since consumer goods are involved now.
Just look at the impact on the US below.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/07/the-us-china-trade-war-impacts-on-both_27.html
We warned our readers that the US-China trade talk broke down in July. However, the politicians and media sugar-coated the trade fallout with a "Constructive" talk.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/us-china-trade-talk-broke-down-again-in.html
How did we come to the conclusion that the US-China trade talk broke down?
We always have this belief that the demon is hidden in the details and we look into the timeline of the US-China trade talk. The US-China trade talk ended in just 4 hours in Shanghai and this was a tell-tale sign that both parties had a big fallout during the meeting because nothing could be settled in just 4 hours. The US team left shanghai immediately after the fallout meeting and both parties started to accuse each other of flip-flopping thereafter.
However, the media just publicized that the US-China trade talk was constructive.
The US GDP will drop further in Q3 & Q4 after these additional tariffs against China since consumer goods are involved now.
Just look at the impact on the US below.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/07/the-us-china-trade-war-impacts-on-both_27.html
Russia is sending a strong signal to the USA in South China Sea.
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/07/23/asia-pacific/south-korea-fires-warning-shots-russia-warplanes/#.XUPLmZMzaqA
Russia is telling the US that it will get involved in the South China Sea (SEA) when the US engages in any SEA military confrontation. This incident has shown a strong military alliance between Russia and China. Therefore, ASEAN better think twice before calling for a stronger US presence in the SEA because the US will only seek to raise the tensions for its own political interest.
We had stated previously in 2016 that Russia would get involved in the SEA confrontation if any.
https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2016/09/russia-supports-china-overtly-to-reject.html
Russia and China are the top 2 powerful countries after the USA and the USA cannot afford to fight with such an alliance. The US can leave the SEA when it loses but ASEAN cannot.
Russia is telling the US that it will get involved in the South China Sea (SEA) when the US engages in any SEA military confrontation. This incident has shown a strong military alliance between Russia and China. Therefore, ASEAN better think twice before calling for a stronger US presence in the SEA because the US will only seek to raise the tensions for its own political interest.
We had stated previously in 2016 that Russia would get involved in the SEA confrontation if any.
https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2016/09/russia-supports-china-overtly-to-reject.html
Russia and China are the top 2 powerful countries after the USA and the USA cannot afford to fight with such an alliance. The US can leave the SEA when it loses but ASEAN cannot.
Thursday, August 1, 2019
Food Empire - Stock calls
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
03/04/19 | DMG & Partners | Food Empire | 0.58 | 0.69 | Buy | |
04/05/19 | DMG & Partners | Food Empire | 0.56 | 0.69 | Buy |
First Sponsor - Stock calls
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
02/22/19 | DBS Vickers | First Sponsor | 1.27 | 1.62 | Buy | RNAV (35% discount) |
07/26/19 | DBS Vickers | First Sponsor | 1.31 | 1.62 | Buy | RNAV (35% discount) |
First Resources - Stock calls
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
01/03/19 | UOB Kay Hian | First Resources | 1.56 | 1.6 | Hold | |
02/20/19 | UOB Kay Hian | First Resources | 1.72 | 1.85 | Hold | PER13x FY19, Buy @ $1.65 |
02/21/19 | Kim Eng | First Resources | 1.69 | 2.1 | Buy | |
03/01/19 | Kim Eng | First Resources | 1.71 | 2.03 | Buy | PER17x |
03/04/19 | DMG & Partners | First Resources | 1.72 | 1.6 | Neutral | PER13x FY19 |
03/04/19 | DBS Vickers | First Resources | 1.72 | 1.97 | Buy | DCF |
03/05/19 | CIMB | First Resources | 1.7 | 2.12 | Add | |
03/12/19 | UOB Kay Hian | First Resources | 1.69 | 1.85 | Hold | Buy @ $1.65 |
04/09/19 | CIMB | First Resources | 1.79 | 2.12 | Add | |
04/22/19 | UOB Kay Hian | First Resources | 1.85 | 1.85 | Hold | |
05/06/19 | Kim Eng | First Resources | 1.82 | 2.03 | Buy | PER17x FY19 |
05/09/19 | UOB Kay Hian | First Resources | 1.79 | 1.85 | Hold | PER13x FY19, Buy @ $1.65 |
05/16/19 | DMG & Partners | First Resources | 1.7 | 1.53 | Neutral | PER13x FY20 |
05/16/19 | Kim Eng | First Resources | 1.7 | 1.93 | Buy | PER17x |
05/16/19 | DBS Vickers | First Resources | 1.7 | 1.95 | Buy | DCF, PER16.5x FY19 |
05/16/19 | UOB Kay Hian | First Resources | 1.7 | 1.7 | Hold | Buy @ $1.50 |
06/06/19 | DMG & Partners | First Resources | 1.56 | 1.53 | Neutral | |
07/02/19 | Kim Eng | First Resources | 1.6 | 1.93 | Buy | |
07/16/19 | DBS Vickers | First Resources | 1.55 | 1.82 | Buy | DCF |
Stock calls for 1 August 2019
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
08/01/19 | UOB Kay Hian | ARA Hospitality | 0.885 | 1.21 | Buy | DDM |
08/01/19 | OCBC | CapitaRetail China | 1.59 | 1.45 | Hold | |
08/01/19 | DBS Vickers | CapitaRetail China | 1.59 | 1.8 | Buy | |
08/01/19 | DBS Vickers | Far East Hospitality | 0.68 | 0.7 | Hold | DCF |
08/01/19 | Kim Eng | Japfa | 0.51 | 0.73 | Buy | Sum of parts |
08/01/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Parkway Life | 3.06 | 3.25 | Buy | |
08/01/19 | DBS Vickers | Parkway Life | 3.06 | 3.35 | Buy | |
08/01/19 | DMG & Partners | SGX | 7.92 | 8.1 | Neutral | PER23x FY20 |
08/01/19 | DBS Vickers | SGX | 7.92 | 8.3 | Buy | |
08/01/19 | phillip | Sheng Siong | 1.16 | 1.3 | Accumulate | PER25x FY19 |
08/01/19 | UOB Kay Hian | SIA | 9.67 | 9.5 | Hold | |
08/01/19 | DBS Vickers | SIA | 9.67 | 10.8 | Buy | PB0.95x FY20 |
08/01/19 | Lim & Tan | SIA | 9.67 | 0 | Hold | |
08/01/19 | DMG & Partners | Silverlake | 0.52 | 0.65 | Buy | DCF |
China has limited its Chinese from visiting Taiwan.
https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/taiwan-criticizes-chinas-ban-individual-033205976.html
This is not surprising since President Tsai is a pro-independent woman. We need to remember that Taiwan is part of China after all.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/01/taiwan-president-is-making-ridiculous.html
Taiwan has a huge trade surplus with China and it is using the trade surplus to purchase US military weapons to be used against China. Therefore, it's about time that China should rein in the Taiwan-China trade surplus.
This is not surprising since President Tsai is a pro-independent woman. We need to remember that Taiwan is part of China after all.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/01/taiwan-president-is-making-ridiculous.html
Taiwan has a huge trade surplus with China and it is using the trade surplus to purchase US military weapons to be used against China. Therefore, it's about time that China should rein in the Taiwan-China trade surplus.
US-China trade talk broke down again in July 2019.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/31/china-us-officials-meet-for-trade-talks-in-shanghai.html
Despite the proclamation of a constructive meeting at the end of July 2019, the US-China trade talk actually broke down because both sides couldn't agree on numerous issues. Furthermore, we could see that both countries accused each other of flip-flopping after the meeting.
The only constructive outcome was that both parties were still willing to continue the trade talk in September.
Despite the proclamation of a constructive meeting at the end of July 2019, the US-China trade talk actually broke down because both sides couldn't agree on numerous issues. Furthermore, we could see that both countries accused each other of flip-flopping after the meeting.
The only constructive outcome was that both parties were still willing to continue the trade talk in September.
The US Fed has cut interest rate by 0.25%!
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-meeting-rates-powell-211534497.html
We've got it right. We predicted a rate cut in July 2019 by analyzing the 4 US rates and the PMI in June.
https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/06/will-us-fed-reduce-its-interest-rates.html
We've got it right. We predicted a rate cut in July 2019 by analyzing the 4 US rates and the PMI in June.
https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/06/will-us-fed-reduce-its-interest-rates.html
Wednesday, July 31, 2019
First Reit - Stock calls
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
01/16/19 | phillip | First Reit | 1.04 | 0.88 | Neutral | DDM |
01/17/19 | Lim & Tan | First Reit | 1.03 | 0 | Neutral | |
01/18/19 | OCBC | First Reit | 1.01 | 0.97 | Hold | |
01/18/19 | CIMB | First Reit | 1.01 | 1.2 | Add | DDM |
02/11/19 | OCBC | First Reit | 1.14 | 0.97 | Sell | |
04/11/19 | CIMB | First Reit | 0.99 | 1.2 | Add | DDM |
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