Genting - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/19	DMG & Partners	Genting	0.975	1.23	Buy	DCF
01/15/19	Kim Eng	Genting	1.03	1.26	Buy	EV/Ebitda9x FY19
01/28/19	UOB Kay Hian	Genting	1.06	1.38	Buy	EV/Ebitda10x FY19
02/15/19	DMG & Partners	Genting	1.1	1.23	Buy	DCF
02/22/19	CIMB	Genting	1.11	1.28	Add	EV/Ebitda9x CY20
02/22/19	OCBC	Genting	1.11	1.31	Buy	FCFE
02/22/19	DMG & Partners	Genting	1.11	1.22	Buy	DCF
02/22/19	UOB Kay Hian	Genting	1.11	1.32	Buy
02/22/19	Kim Eng	Genting	1.11	1.26	Buy	EV/Ebitda9x FY19
02/25/19	DBS Vickers	Genting	1.07	1.54	Buy	EV/Ebitda12x
03/13/19	DMG & Partners	Genting	1.02	1.22	Buy
03/26/19	CIMB	Genting	1.03	1.28	Add
04/04/19	UOB Kay Hian	Genting	1.07	1.26	Buy	EV/Ebitda 9x
04/04/19	DMG & Partners	Genting	1.07	1.08	Neutral	DCF
04/04/19	CIMB	Genting	1.07	1.11	Add	EV/Ebitda8x
04/04/19	OCBC	Genting	1.07	1.31	Buy
04/04/19	DBS Vickers	Genting	1.07	1.54	Buy	EV/Ebitda 12x
04/04/19	Kim Eng	Genting	1.07	1.12	Hold	EV/Ebitda 8x FY19
04/04/19	Citibank	Genting	1.07	1.28	Buy
05/10/19	Kim Eng	Genting	0.95	1.04	Hold
05/10/19	OCBC	Genting	0.95	1.23	Buy
05/10/19	DMG & Partners	Genting	0.95	1.02	Neutral	DCF
05/10/19	CIMB	Genting	0.95	1.06	Add	EV/Ebitda8x CY20
05/10/19	UOB Kay Hian	Genting	0.95	1.26	Buy
05/10/19	DBS Vickers	Genting	0.95	1.2	Buy	DCF
05/10/19	Citibank	Genting	0.95	1.16	Buy
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	Genting	0.86	1.02	Neutral
06/24/19	CIMB	Genting	0.93	1.06	Add
08/05/19	DMG & Partners	Genting	0.9	0.97	Neutral	EV/Ebitda7x FY19
08/05/19	UOB Kay Hian	Genting	0.9	1.11	Buy
08/06/19	Kim Eng	Genting	0.885	0.99	Hold
08/06/19	Citibank	Genting	0.885	1.07	Buy
08/06/19	CIMB	Genting	0.885	1	Add	EV/Ebitda8x CY20
08/06/19	DBS Vickers	Genting	0.885	1.2	Buy
08/06/19	Lim & Tan	Genting	0.885	0	Hold

Fu Yu - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/19	DMG & Partners	Fu Yu	0.19	0.23	Buy	DCF
01/04/19	UOB Kay Hian	Fu Yu	0.186	0.27	Buy	EV/Ebitda 5.3x FY19
01/15/19	CIMB	Fu Yu	0.2	0.2	Hold	PB0.9x
02/08/19	UOB Kay Hian	Fu Yu	0.205	0.27	Buy
02/27/19	UOB Kay Hian	Fu Yu	0.21	0.285	Buy
02/27/19	Lim & Tan	Fu Yu	0.21	0	Buy
02/28/19	DMG & Partners	Fu Yu	0.215	0.24	Buy	DCF
02/28/19	CIMB	Fu Yu	0.215	0.2	Hold
03/13/19	DMG & Partners	Fu Yu	0.205	0.24	Buy
03/26/19	UOB Kay Hian	Fu Yu	0.2	0.285	Buy
04/15/19	UOB Kay Hian	Fu Yu	0.205	0.285	Buy	EV/Ebitda5.5x
05/07/19	DMG & Partners	Fu Yu	0.21	0.24	Buy	DCF
05/10/19	UOB Kay Hian	Fu Yu	0.205	0.285	Buy
05/10/19	Lim & Tan	Fu Yu	0.205	0	Buy
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	Fu Yu	0.19	0.24	Buy
06/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	Fu Yu	0.2	0.29	Buy
07/09/19	DMG & Partners	Fu Yu	0.215	0.24	Buy	DCF
07/15/19	UOB Kay Hian	Fu Yu	0.215	0.29	Buy

Frencken - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/12/19	Amfrasers	Frencken	0.51	0.67	Buy	PER10x FY19
04/15/19	DBS Vickers	Frencken	0.6	0.75	Buy	PER8.5x FY19/20
04/17/19	CIMB	Frencken	0.635	0.9	Add	PER10x FY20
05/09/19	DMG & Partners	Frencken	0.615	0.82	Buy	DCF
05/10/19	DBS Vickers	Frencken	0.615	0.75	Buy	PER8.5x FY19/20
05/10/19	Lim & Tan	Frencken	0.615	0	Buy
05/10/19	CIMB	Frencken	0.615	0.9	Add
05/14/19	Amfrasers	Frencken	0.595	0.67	Buy	PER10x FY19
06/12/19	DMG & Partners	Frencken	0.625	0.82	Buy	DCF

Stock calls for 6 August 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/06/19	DMG & Partners	APAC Realty	0.525	0.65	Buy	DCF
08/06/19	DBS Vickers	APAC Realty	0.525	0.48	Hold	PER10x FY20
08/06/19	UOB Kay Hian	First Resources	1.53	1.6	Hold
08/06/19	Kim Eng	Genting	0.885	0.99	Hold
08/06/19	Citibank	Genting	0.885	1.07	Buy
08/06/19	CIMB	Genting	0.885	1	Add	EV/Ebitda8x CY20
08/06/19	DBS Vickers	Genting	0.885	1.2	Buy
08/06/19	Lim & Tan	Genting	0.885	0	Hold
08/06/19	CIMB	Hongkong Land	5.74	7.4	Add
08/06/19	Citibank	Hongkong Land	5.74	5.85	Sell
08/06/19	DBS Vickers	Keppel Reit	1.2	1.45	Buy
08/06/19	UOB Kay Hian	Netlink	0.88	0.92	Buy	DCF
08/06/19	Phillip	Netlink	0.88	0.93	Accumulate	DCF
08/06/19	CIMB	OCBC	11.08	12.59	Hold	GGM, PB1.3x
08/06/19	Macquarie	Sembcorp Marine	1.28	1.4	Neutral	PB
08/06/19	Amfrasers	Sheng Siong	1.16	1.27	Outperform
08/06/19	OCBC	Starhill	0.775	0.81	Buy
08/06/19	CIMB	UOB	25.91	29.58	Add	GGM, PB1.3x

How did the US end up on the receiving end of the US-China trade war?

How did the US end up on the receiving end instead of China?

1. The US underestimated Zhong Shan. Zhong Shan is a hawkish hardliner and we've given a brief description of him in our previous post.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/trump-is-in-trouble-because-china-is-no.html

2. The US didn’t understand the implicit message that was sent by China in Shanghai.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/the-us-trade-talk-team-didnt-get.html

3. The US didn’t understand China economic structure.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/07/china-retail-sales-vs-us-retail-sales.html

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/the-slowdown-in-chinas-imports-will.html

4. The US flip-flopped on many issues and created distrust in the trade talk.

How many cards can China use against the US?

The other play cards that China can use against the US:

1. Iran oil
2. Venezuela oil
3. Rare earth
4. RMB depreciation
5. Tariffs
6. North Korea

A few of these will create big headaches for the US already.

The US is trying to raise tension in Asia with its missiles deployment. - Part 2

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/china-counter-u-deployment-intermediate-014010978.html

China has started to warn Asian countries about hosting the US missiles that are targeting China.

We were very concerned about this and did a post recently.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/the-us-is-trying-to-raise-tension-in.html

The US has labelled China as a currency manipulator.

There is no doubt that the US-China trade war will escalate.

What will China do after being labelled as a currency manipulator?

China may ban US oil imports and start to import more Iran oil.  This will definitely irk the US and render US sanctions against Iran as ineffective.  When China imports more Iran oil, it will disrupt the oil market because China will be cutting back oil purchases from other oil producers.  This will cause oil prices to fall and impact the US shale oil industry.

China has more cards to play with the US and China has not announced its own tariffs yet.

Inverse relationship between China A50 and RMB. - Part 3

Black line: USD/CNY
Green line: China A50

Look at what a falling RMB has done to China A50! China has allowed RMB to breach the 7 mark without any FX intervention.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/inverse-relationship-between-china-a50.html

The US is trying to raise tension in Asia with its missiles deployment.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/us-wants-quickly-deploy-missiles-asia-esper-103048072.html

The US wants to deploy its missiles in Asia to target China.  This will definitely raise tension between Asian countries and China.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/australia-wont-host-u-missiles-063447999.html

The new Aussie PM understood the danger of hosting the US missiles and won't allow it in Australia.

I hope that SG won't allow it too because China will aim its missiles at SG when we've US missiles targeting China.  The Sino-SG relationship will also turn south because of the US missiles.

Frasers Property - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/18	Lim & Tan	Frasers Property	2.08	0	Buy
02/12/18	CIMB	Frasers Property	1.96	2.4	Add	RNAV (30% discount)
02/12/18	DBS Vickers	Frasers Property	1.96	2.35	Buy	RNAV (20% discount), PB1x
04/13/18	DBS Vickers	Frasers Property	1.96	2.35	Buy
05/11/18	CIMB	Frasers Property	1.95	2.4	Add
07/06/18	DBS Vickers	Frasers Property	1.67	2.35	Buy
07/09/18	DBS Vickers	Frasers Property	1.58	1.9	Buy	RNAV (35% discount)
08/13/18	DBS Vickers	Frasers Property	1.71	1.98	Buy	RNAV (35% discount)
08/13/18	CIMB	Frasers Property	1.71	2.02	Add	RNAV (35% discount)
11/12/18	CIMB	Frasers Property	1.62	2.08	Add	RNAV (35% discount)
11/13/18	DBS Vickers	Frasers Property	1.63	1.98	Buy	RNAV (35% discount)
01/17/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Property	1.74	1.98	Buy	RNAV (35% discount)
02/14/19	CIMB	Frasers Property	1.7	2.08	Add
02/14/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Property	1.7	1.98	Buy	RNAV (35% discount)
03/22/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Property	1.77	1.98	Buy	RNAV (35% discount)
04/08/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Property	1.81	1.98	Buy
04/10/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Property	1.84	2.3	Buy	RNAV (35% discount)
05/06/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Property	1.89	2.3	Buy	RNAV (35% discount)
05/07/19	CIMB	Frasers Property	1.85	2.08	Add

Frasers Logistics - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/28/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Logistics	1.06	1.2	Buy	DCF
01/28/19	OCBC	Frasers Logistics	1.06	1.19	Buy
01/28/19	CIMB	Frasers Logistics	1.06	1.19	Add
02/08/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Logistics	1.09	1.2	Buy
04/03/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Logistics	1.16	1.2	Buy
04/30/19	OCBC	Frasers Logistics	1.18	1.2	Hold
05/02/19	CIMB	Frasers Logistics	1.18	1.21	Hold	DDM
06/28/19	OCBC	Frasers Logistics	1.19	1.2	Hold
07/04/19	OCBC	Frasers Logistics	1.23	1.2	Hold
07/04/19	Lim & Tan	Frasers Logistics	1.23	0	Hold
07/04/19	CIMB	Frasers Logistics	1.23	1.25	Hold

Frasers Hospitality Trust - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/01/19	Kim Eng	Frasers Hospitality Trust	0.735	0.8	Buy	DDM
02/01/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Hospitality Trust	0.735	0.78	Buy
02/04/19	UOB Kay Hian	Frasers Hospitality Trust	0.74	0.82	Buy
05/03/19	Kim Eng	Frasers Hospitality Trust	0.745	0.85	Buy
05/03/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Hospitality Trust	0.745	0.77	Hold	DCF
07/12/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Hospitality Trust	0.72	0.77	Hold	DCF

Stock calls for 5 August 2019

Date	Analyst	Code	Company	Last	Target	Call	Percent	Valuation
08/05/19	DMG & Partners	5DA	Breadtalk	0.69	0.71	Neutral	2.90	Sum of parts
08/05/19	DMG & Partners	D01	Dairy Farm	7.6	7.38	Neutral	-2.89	DCF
08/05/19	DMG & Partners	G13	Genting	0.9	0.97	Neutral	7.78	EV/Ebitda7x FY19
08/05/19	UOB Kay Hian	G13	Genting	0.9	1.11	Buy	23.33
08/05/19	DBS Vickers	H17	Hi-P	1.34	1.32	Hold	-1.49	PER12x FY20
08/05/19	DBS Vickers	H78	Hongkong Land	6.02	7.7	Buy	27.91	RNAV (40% discount)
08/05/19	DBS Vickers	5JS	Indofood Agri	0.32	0.29	Hold	-9.38	DCF
08/05/19	DBS Vickers	UD2	Japfa	0.5	0.53	Hold	6.00	Sum of parts (10% discount), PER12.5x FY19
08/05/19	phillip	O39	OCBC	11.21	12.5	Accumulate	11.51	GGM, PB1.3x
08/05/19	DMG & Partners	O39	OCBC	11.21	11.8	Neutral	5.26	GGM, PB1.1x FY20
08/05/19	UOB Kay Hian	O39	OCBC	11.21	14.48	Buy	29.17
08/05/19	DBS Vickers	O39	OCBC	11.21	11.5	Hold	2.59
08/05/19	DBS Vickers	E8Z	Roxy-Pacific	0.39	0.39	Hold	0.00	RNAV (55% discount)
08/05/19	CIMB	S68	SGX	7.98	8.1	Hold	1.50	PER21.5x
08/05/19	UOB Kay Hian	S08	Singapore Post	0.965	1.04	Hold	7.77	Sum of parts
08/05/19	DBS Vickers	S08	Singapore Post	0.965	0.96	Hold	-0.52
08/05/19	Lim & Tan	S08	Singapore Post	0.965	0	Hold	-100.00
08/05/19	phillip	U11	UOB	26	28.6	Accumulate	10.00	GGM, PB1.3x
08/05/19	DBS Vickers	U11	UOB	26	29.2	Buy	12.31
08/05/19	Kim Eng	U11	UOB	26	29.13	Buy	12.04	DDM

China has suspended US agricultural purchases and depreciated its yuan.

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/dow-futures-dive-as-china-retaliates-on-trade-yuan-falls-to-decade-low-v-dollar-15044374?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO&yptr=yahoo

China has not retaliated with its own tariffs yet but suspended the US agricultural purchases.  China doesn't want to show hand its tariff card yet.  This will create more uncertainty in the stock market because investors don't want to catch a falling knife.

We had already stated that China was no longer interested in US agricultural purchases in our previous post.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/trump-is-in-trouble-because-china-is-no.html

China had stipulated its tough stance on the wall during the US-China trade talk in Shanghai but the US team didn't get it.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/the-us-trade-talk-team-didnt-get.html

The US doesn't understand that the US tariffs don't impact China's economy much nowadays and China has learnt how to cope with the tariffs already.  Therefore, additional tariffs won't force China to bend over.

Hong Kong economy will be heavily impacted by these protests.

The latest information I've gathered from China is that China has issued HK travel restriction to Guangzhou for safety reason.  As the majority of the Chinese visitors are from Guangzhou, this will impact tourism in HK.

I do not support these protestors for the reasons cited in my previous post below.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/hong-kong-pro-democracy-activists-are.html

Many inbound and outbound flights are cancelled in HK today because of the protest today.  When HK economy collapses, HK will still need China to bail it out again by directing Chinese companies to invest in HK.  There is no way for HK to be independent and yet it wants China to be its saviour whenever it faces an economic collapse.  Nobody can accept this!

The US trade-talk team didn't get the message that China was sending in Shanghai.

A picture tells a thousand words!  How true it is!

The ancient Chinese poetry on the wall had a hidden message which China was trying to send to the US team but the US team didn't understand the implied meaning because there was no Chinese expert on its team.

The poetry was depicting a magnificent mountain and the cloud came along to create a more picturesque view.  The cloud could come and go but the mountain would still be magnificent and picturesque as ever without the cloud.

The implied meaning from the poetry was that China didn't care about whether the US team did come for the trade talk because China would still be doing fine without the trade deal.

The US team didn't understand the poetry on the wall and the meeting broke down in less than 4 hours because it continued with its unreasonable US demands.

Trump is in trouble because China is no longer interested to buy US agricultural products.

China has increased agricultural and farming products from Russia and Argentina recently and the purchases are spearheaded by Zhong Shan, the commence minister.

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3019187/china-and-russia-vow-deepen-trade-soybeans-after-tariff-war

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-argentina-soyproducts-china-exclusive/exclusive-china-to-inspect-argentine-crushers-could-unlock-no-1-soymeal-market-idUSKCN1UP1WT

Zhong Shan is a hawkish Chinese and is ordered by President Xi to take over the US-China trade talk from Liu He who is dovish.  The US team must be regretting now for not concluding the trade talk with Liu He.  The US team is facing Zhong Shan now and the trade talk will be very difficult to reach a settlement because he will walk away from any unfair and unreasonable US demand.  Zhong Shan will take on the additional US tariffs and impose China tariffs too.

Trump is foolish to think that China will back down now.  I believe Trump will back down instead because his tariffs will affect the upcoming festivals such as Thanksgiving and Christmas.  He will lose a lot of votes when his supporters cannot enjoy their festivals since consumer good prices will rise tremendously after the tariffs.

The Strait Times Index (STI) has a high probability to close in the red in August.

I took the effort to compile the monthly gains for the past years and realized that the STI always performed badly in August since 2012.

This pattern looks set to repeat itself in August after Trump's china tariffs announcement.

Baltic dry index - 1788

Today, Friday, August 02 2019, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 24 points, reaching 1788 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

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