How did the US end up on the receiving end of the US-China trade war?

How did the US end up on the receiving end instead of China?

1. The US underestimated Zhong Shan. Zhong Shan is a hawkish hardliner and we've given a brief description of him in our previous post.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/trump-is-in-trouble-because-china-is-no.html

2. The US didn’t understand the implicit message that was sent by China in Shanghai.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/the-us-trade-talk-team-didnt-get.html

3. The US didn’t understand China economic structure.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/07/china-retail-sales-vs-us-retail-sales.html

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/the-slowdown-in-chinas-imports-will.html

4. The US flip-flopped on many issues and created distrust in the trade talk.

How many cards can China use against the US?

The other play cards that China can use against the US:

1. Iran oil
2. Venezuela oil
3. Rare earth
4. RMB depreciation
5. Tariffs
6. North Korea

A few of these will create big headaches for the US already.

The US is trying to raise tension in Asia with its missiles deployment. - Part 2

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/china-counter-u-deployment-intermediate-014010978.html

China has started to warn Asian countries about hosting the US missiles that are targeting China.

We were very concerned about this and did a post recently.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/the-us-is-trying-to-raise-tension-in.html

The US has labelled China as a currency manipulator.

There is no doubt that the US-China trade war will escalate.

What will China do after being labelled as a currency manipulator?

China may ban US oil imports and start to import more Iran oil.  This will definitely irk the US and render US sanctions against Iran as ineffective.  When China imports more Iran oil, it will disrupt the oil market because China will be cutting back oil purchases from other oil producers.  This will cause oil prices to fall and impact the US shale oil industry.

China has more cards to play with the US and China has not announced its own tariffs yet.

Inverse relationship between China A50 and RMB. - Part 3

Black line: USD/CNY
Green line: China A50

Look at what a falling RMB has done to China A50! China has allowed RMB to breach the 7 mark without any FX intervention.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/inverse-relationship-between-china-a50.html

The US is trying to raise tension in Asia with its missiles deployment.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/us-wants-quickly-deploy-missiles-asia-esper-103048072.html

The US wants to deploy its missiles in Asia to target China.  This will definitely raise tension between Asian countries and China.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/australia-wont-host-u-missiles-063447999.html

The new Aussie PM understood the danger of hosting the US missiles and won't allow it in Australia.

I hope that SG won't allow it too because China will aim its missiles at SG when we've US missiles targeting China.  The Sino-SG relationship will also turn south because of the US missiles.

Frasers Property - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/18	Lim & Tan	Frasers Property	2.08	0	Buy
02/12/18	CIMB	Frasers Property	1.96	2.4	Add	RNAV (30% discount)
02/12/18	DBS Vickers	Frasers Property	1.96	2.35	Buy	RNAV (20% discount), PB1x
04/13/18	DBS Vickers	Frasers Property	1.96	2.35	Buy
05/11/18	CIMB	Frasers Property	1.95	2.4	Add
07/06/18	DBS Vickers	Frasers Property	1.67	2.35	Buy
07/09/18	DBS Vickers	Frasers Property	1.58	1.9	Buy	RNAV (35% discount)
08/13/18	DBS Vickers	Frasers Property	1.71	1.98	Buy	RNAV (35% discount)
08/13/18	CIMB	Frasers Property	1.71	2.02	Add	RNAV (35% discount)
11/12/18	CIMB	Frasers Property	1.62	2.08	Add	RNAV (35% discount)
11/13/18	DBS Vickers	Frasers Property	1.63	1.98	Buy	RNAV (35% discount)
01/17/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Property	1.74	1.98	Buy	RNAV (35% discount)
02/14/19	CIMB	Frasers Property	1.7	2.08	Add
02/14/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Property	1.7	1.98	Buy	RNAV (35% discount)
03/22/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Property	1.77	1.98	Buy	RNAV (35% discount)
04/08/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Property	1.81	1.98	Buy
04/10/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Property	1.84	2.3	Buy	RNAV (35% discount)
05/06/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Property	1.89	2.3	Buy	RNAV (35% discount)
05/07/19	CIMB	Frasers Property	1.85	2.08	Add

Frasers Logistics - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/28/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Logistics	1.06	1.2	Buy	DCF
01/28/19	OCBC	Frasers Logistics	1.06	1.19	Buy
01/28/19	CIMB	Frasers Logistics	1.06	1.19	Add
02/08/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Logistics	1.09	1.2	Buy
04/03/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Logistics	1.16	1.2	Buy
04/30/19	OCBC	Frasers Logistics	1.18	1.2	Hold
05/02/19	CIMB	Frasers Logistics	1.18	1.21	Hold	DDM
06/28/19	OCBC	Frasers Logistics	1.19	1.2	Hold
07/04/19	OCBC	Frasers Logistics	1.23	1.2	Hold
07/04/19	Lim & Tan	Frasers Logistics	1.23	0	Hold
07/04/19	CIMB	Frasers Logistics	1.23	1.25	Hold

Frasers Hospitality Trust - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/01/19	Kim Eng	Frasers Hospitality Trust	0.735	0.8	Buy	DDM
02/01/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Hospitality Trust	0.735	0.78	Buy
02/04/19	UOB Kay Hian	Frasers Hospitality Trust	0.74	0.82	Buy
05/03/19	Kim Eng	Frasers Hospitality Trust	0.745	0.85	Buy
05/03/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Hospitality Trust	0.745	0.77	Hold	DCF
07/12/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Hospitality Trust	0.72	0.77	Hold	DCF

Stock calls for 5 August 2019

Date	Analyst	Code	Company	Last	Target	Call	Percent	Valuation
08/05/19	DMG & Partners	5DA	Breadtalk	0.69	0.71	Neutral	2.90	Sum of parts
08/05/19	DMG & Partners	D01	Dairy Farm	7.6	7.38	Neutral	-2.89	DCF
08/05/19	DMG & Partners	G13	Genting	0.9	0.97	Neutral	7.78	EV/Ebitda7x FY19
08/05/19	UOB Kay Hian	G13	Genting	0.9	1.11	Buy	23.33
08/05/19	DBS Vickers	H17	Hi-P	1.34	1.32	Hold	-1.49	PER12x FY20
08/05/19	DBS Vickers	H78	Hongkong Land	6.02	7.7	Buy	27.91	RNAV (40% discount)
08/05/19	DBS Vickers	5JS	Indofood Agri	0.32	0.29	Hold	-9.38	DCF
08/05/19	DBS Vickers	UD2	Japfa	0.5	0.53	Hold	6.00	Sum of parts (10% discount), PER12.5x FY19
08/05/19	phillip	O39	OCBC	11.21	12.5	Accumulate	11.51	GGM, PB1.3x
08/05/19	DMG & Partners	O39	OCBC	11.21	11.8	Neutral	5.26	GGM, PB1.1x FY20
08/05/19	UOB Kay Hian	O39	OCBC	11.21	14.48	Buy	29.17
08/05/19	DBS Vickers	O39	OCBC	11.21	11.5	Hold	2.59
08/05/19	DBS Vickers	E8Z	Roxy-Pacific	0.39	0.39	Hold	0.00	RNAV (55% discount)
08/05/19	CIMB	S68	SGX	7.98	8.1	Hold	1.50	PER21.5x
08/05/19	UOB Kay Hian	S08	Singapore Post	0.965	1.04	Hold	7.77	Sum of parts
08/05/19	DBS Vickers	S08	Singapore Post	0.965	0.96	Hold	-0.52
08/05/19	Lim & Tan	S08	Singapore Post	0.965	0	Hold	-100.00
08/05/19	phillip	U11	UOB	26	28.6	Accumulate	10.00	GGM, PB1.3x
08/05/19	DBS Vickers	U11	UOB	26	29.2	Buy	12.31
08/05/19	Kim Eng	U11	UOB	26	29.13	Buy	12.04	DDM

China has suspended US agricultural purchases and depreciated its yuan.

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/dow-futures-dive-as-china-retaliates-on-trade-yuan-falls-to-decade-low-v-dollar-15044374?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO&yptr=yahoo

China has not retaliated with its own tariffs yet but suspended the US agricultural purchases.  China doesn't want to show hand its tariff card yet.  This will create more uncertainty in the stock market because investors don't want to catch a falling knife.

We had already stated that China was no longer interested in US agricultural purchases in our previous post.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/trump-is-in-trouble-because-china-is-no.html

China had stipulated its tough stance on the wall during the US-China trade talk in Shanghai but the US team didn't get it.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/the-us-trade-talk-team-didnt-get.html

The US doesn't understand that the US tariffs don't impact China's economy much nowadays and China has learnt how to cope with the tariffs already.  Therefore, additional tariffs won't force China to bend over.

Hong Kong economy will be heavily impacted by these protests.

The latest information I've gathered from China is that China has issued HK travel restriction to Guangzhou for safety reason.  As the majority of the Chinese visitors are from Guangzhou, this will impact tourism in HK.

I do not support these protestors for the reasons cited in my previous post below.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/hong-kong-pro-democracy-activists-are.html

Many inbound and outbound flights are cancelled in HK today because of the protest today.  When HK economy collapses, HK will still need China to bail it out again by directing Chinese companies to invest in HK.  There is no way for HK to be independent and yet it wants China to be its saviour whenever it faces an economic collapse.  Nobody can accept this!

The US trade-talk team didn't get the message that China was sending in Shanghai.

A picture tells a thousand words!  How true it is!

The ancient Chinese poetry on the wall had a hidden message which China was trying to send to the US team but the US team didn't understand the implied meaning because there was no Chinese expert on its team.

The poetry was depicting a magnificent mountain and the cloud came along to create a more picturesque view.  The cloud could come and go but the mountain would still be magnificent and picturesque as ever without the cloud.

The implied meaning from the poetry was that China didn't care about whether the US team did come for the trade talk because China would still be doing fine without the trade deal.

The US team didn't understand the poetry on the wall and the meeting broke down in less than 4 hours because it continued with its unreasonable US demands.

Trump is in trouble because China is no longer interested to buy US agricultural products.

China has increased agricultural and farming products from Russia and Argentina recently and the purchases are spearheaded by Zhong Shan, the commence minister.

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3019187/china-and-russia-vow-deepen-trade-soybeans-after-tariff-war

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-argentina-soyproducts-china-exclusive/exclusive-china-to-inspect-argentine-crushers-could-unlock-no-1-soymeal-market-idUSKCN1UP1WT

Zhong Shan is a hawkish Chinese and is ordered by President Xi to take over the US-China trade talk from Liu He who is dovish.  The US team must be regretting now for not concluding the trade talk with Liu He.  The US team is facing Zhong Shan now and the trade talk will be very difficult to reach a settlement because he will walk away from any unfair and unreasonable US demand.  Zhong Shan will take on the additional US tariffs and impose China tariffs too.

Trump is foolish to think that China will back down now.  I believe Trump will back down instead because his tariffs will affect the upcoming festivals such as Thanksgiving and Christmas.  He will lose a lot of votes when his supporters cannot enjoy their festivals since consumer good prices will rise tremendously after the tariffs.

The Strait Times Index (STI) has a high probability to close in the red in August.

I took the effort to compile the monthly gains for the past years and realized that the STI always performed badly in August since 2012.

This pattern looks set to repeat itself in August after Trump's china tariffs announcement.

Baltic dry index - 1788

Today, Friday, August 02 2019, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 24 points, reaching 1788 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

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Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean

US rig count - 942

Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco

ISM PMI analysis for the US economy in July 2019.

The price of a product is affected by raw material and labour costs.  Although the imported raw materials were supposed to be cheaper than local materials, the producers chose to reduce the imported materials and purchase more local materials.  This behaviour might be tariff-related.  However, the reduction in employment had helped to defray the cost and reduced the PMI prices from 47.9 to 45.1.  The upcoming employment data will fall, judging from the PMI employment sub-index number.

The new export and local orders will crumble if Trump imposes the additional tariffs on 1 September since consumer goods are being targeted this time and China has not announced its retaliatory US tariffs.  This July PMI is no longer relevant because of the escalating tariffs from both countries.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/trump-to-impose-additional-tariffs-on.html

In conclusion, the headline PMI figure has been falling for 4 consecutive months already.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/07/ism-pmi-analysis-for-us-economy-in-june.html

Frasers Commercial Trust - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/18/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.47	1.7	Buy
01/21/19	OCBC	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.45	1.56	Buy
01/21/19	CIMB	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.45	1.5	Hold	DDM
01/21/19	Lim & Tan	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.45	0	Hold
03/18/19	DMG & Partners	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.47	1.5	Neutral
04/08/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.47	1.7	Buy
04/24/19	DMG & Partners	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.49	1.5	Neutral	DDM
04/24/19	OCBC	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.49	1.58	Buy
04/24/19	CIMB	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.49	1.5	Hold	DDM
06/06/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.51	1.7	Buy
06/26/19	OCBC	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.58	1.69	Buy
06/26/19	CIMB	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.58	1.64	Add	DDM
06/27/19	DMG & Partners	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.66	1.65	Neutral	DDM
07/04/19	DMG & Partners	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.68	1.65	Neutral
07/12/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.65	1.7	Hold	DCF
07/22/19	OCBC	Frasers Commercial Trust	1.64	1.7	Hold

Frasers Centrepoint Trust - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/17/19	Kim Eng	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.27	2.55	Buy	DDM
01/22/19	Lim & Tan	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.26	0	Hold
01/22/19	OCBC	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.26	2.5	Buy
01/23/19	Phillip	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.27	2.21	Neutral	DDM, PB1.09x FY19
01/23/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.27	2.4	Buy
01/28/19	UOB Kay Hian	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.29	2.32	Buy
01/28/19	CIMB	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.29	2.35	Add	DDM
02/15/19	Phillip	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.24	2.21	Neutral
02/28/19	Kim Eng	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.3	2.55	Buy
03/01/19	OCBC	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.29	2.5	Buy
03/01/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.29	2.4	Buy	DCF
03/14/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.26	2.6	Buy
03/18/19	DMG & Partners	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.28	2.19	Neutral
04/03/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.38	2.6	Buy
04/04/19	Kim Eng	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.36	2.6	Buy
04/24/19	Lim & Tan	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.36	0	Buy
04/25/19	DMG & Partners	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.36	2.19	Neutral	DDM
04/25/19	OCBC	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.36	2.61	Buy	DDM
04/26/19	Phillip	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.37	2.31	Neutral	DDM
05/17/19	OCBC	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.45	2.61	Buy
05/17/19	DMG & Partners	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.45	2.25	Neutral
05/17/19	CIMB	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.45	2.55	Add	DDM
05/21/19	Kim Eng	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.4	2.6	Buy
05/23/19	UOB Kay Hian	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.41	2.71	Buy
05/24/19	Phillip	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.44	2.36	Neutral	DDM
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.52	2.25	Neutral
06/10/19	UOB Kay Hian	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.52	2.71	Buy
06/19/19	Phillip	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.61	2.36	Neutral
06/21/19	UOB Kay Hian	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.55	2.72	Buy
06/24/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.54	2.85	Buy
06/24/19	Amfrasers	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.54	2.33	Neutral	DDM
06/25/19	Kim Eng	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.59	2.6	Buy
07/04/19	DMG & Partners	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.64	2.25	Neutral
07/12/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.64	2.95	Buy
07/16/19	UOB Kay Hian	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.62	2.72	Buy
07/22/19	Phillip	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.65	2.36	Neutral
07/24/19	UOB Kay Hian	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.65	2.66	Hold	DDM, Buy @ $2.42
07/24/19	Kim Eng	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.65	2.8	Buy	DDM
07/24/19	OCBC	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.65	2.69	Hold
07/24/19	CIMB	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.65	2.79	Add	DDM
07/24/19	Lim & Tan	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.65	0	Hold
07/26/19	Amfrasers	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.63	2.51	Neutral
07/29/19	Phillip	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.68	2.77	Accumulate	DDM