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Wednesday, August 7, 2019

GL Ltd - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/07/19 Lim & Tan GL Ltd 0.735 1.76 Buy Sum of parts

Geo Energy - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/04/19 phillip Geo Energy 0.176 0.245 Buy
02/13/19 phillip Geo Energy 0.198 0.245 Buy
03/18/19 phillip Geo Energy 0.183 0.245 Buy
03/25/19 phillip Geo Energy 0.186 0.215 Accumulate PER10x
03/26/19 Amfrasers Geo Energy 0.182 0.19 Hold DCF
04/26/19 phillip Geo Energy 0.176 0.215 Accumulate
05/29/19 phillip Geo Energy 0.148 0.15 Neutral PER10x
06/03/19 phillip Geo Energy 0.149 0.15 Neutral
07/04/19 phillip Geo Energy 0.155 0.15 Neutral

Stock calls for 7 August 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
08/07/19 OCBC Capitaland 3.48 4.04 Buy
08/07/19 DBS Vickers Jumbo 0.38 0.47 Buy PER23x FY20
08/07/19 Kim Eng Netlink 0.865 0.94 Buy DDM
08/07/19 DBS Vickers Netlink 0.865 0.95 Buy DCF
08/07/19 phillip Penguin 0.495 0.61 Buy PER5x FY19 (ex-cash)
08/07/19 OCBC Singapore Post 0.945 1 Hold
08/07/19 DBS Vickers Singtel 3.52 3.4 Hold Sum of parts
08/07/19 Phillip Starhub 1.48 1.58 Accumlate EV/Ebitda6x
08/07/19 DMG & Partners Starhub 1.48 1.52 Neutral DCF
08/07/19 OCBC Starhub 1.48 1.52 Hold
08/07/19 UOB Kay Hian Starhub 1.48 1.45 Sell
08/07/19 DBS Vickers Starhub 1.48 1.55 Hold EV/Ebitda 6.6x FY19
08/07/19 UOB Kay Hian Sunningdale 1.28 1.01 Sell
08/07/19 DBS Vickers Yangzijiang 1.37 1.82 Buy Sum of parts

Tuesday, August 6, 2019

Many analysts don't understand economics at all.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-could-unleash-this-weapon-on-the-financial-markets-to-wallop-the-us-152709274.html

The analysts who suggested that China could be selling its US treasuries to punish the US were either stupid or didn't understand economics at all.

We've stated before that China would not sell its US treasuries to punish the US but only to support its RMB.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/06/china-has-started-to-sell-us-treasuries.html

We left out the US treasuries in our post below because we knew that the US treasuries would not be one of the cards that China would hand out.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/how-many-cards-can-china-use-against-us.html

Genting - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/02/19 DMG & Partners Genting 0.975 1.23 Buy DCF
01/15/19 Kim Eng Genting 1.03 1.26 Buy EV/Ebitda9x FY19
01/28/19 UOB Kay Hian Genting 1.06 1.38 Buy EV/Ebitda10x FY19
02/15/19 DMG & Partners Genting 1.1 1.23 Buy DCF
02/22/19 CIMB Genting 1.11 1.28 Add EV/Ebitda9x CY20
02/22/19 OCBC Genting 1.11 1.31 Buy FCFE
02/22/19 DMG & Partners Genting 1.11 1.22 Buy DCF
02/22/19 UOB Kay Hian Genting 1.11 1.32 Buy
02/22/19 Kim Eng Genting 1.11 1.26 Buy EV/Ebitda9x FY19
02/25/19 DBS Vickers Genting 1.07 1.54 Buy EV/Ebitda12x
03/13/19 DMG & Partners Genting 1.02 1.22 Buy
03/26/19 CIMB Genting 1.03 1.28 Add
04/04/19 UOB Kay Hian Genting 1.07 1.26 Buy EV/Ebitda 9x
04/04/19 DMG & Partners Genting 1.07 1.08 Neutral DCF
04/04/19 CIMB Genting 1.07 1.11 Add EV/Ebitda8x
04/04/19 OCBC Genting 1.07 1.31 Buy
04/04/19 DBS Vickers Genting 1.07 1.54 Buy EV/Ebitda 12x
04/04/19 Kim Eng Genting 1.07 1.12 Hold EV/Ebitda 8x FY19
04/04/19 Citibank Genting 1.07 1.28 Buy
05/10/19 Kim Eng Genting 0.95 1.04 Hold
05/10/19 OCBC Genting 0.95 1.23 Buy
05/10/19 DMG & Partners Genting 0.95 1.02 Neutral DCF
05/10/19 CIMB Genting 0.95 1.06 Add EV/Ebitda8x CY20
05/10/19 UOB Kay Hian Genting 0.95 1.26 Buy
05/10/19 DBS Vickers Genting 0.95 1.2 Buy DCF
05/10/19 Citibank Genting 0.95 1.16 Buy
06/06/19 DMG & Partners Genting 0.86 1.02 Neutral
06/24/19 CIMB Genting 0.93 1.06 Add
08/05/19 DMG & Partners Genting 0.9 0.97 Neutral EV/Ebitda7x FY19
08/05/19 UOB Kay Hian Genting 0.9 1.11 Buy
08/06/19 Kim Eng Genting 0.885 0.99 Hold
08/06/19 Citibank Genting 0.885 1.07 Buy
08/06/19 CIMB Genting 0.885 1 Add EV/Ebitda8x CY20
08/06/19 DBS Vickers Genting 0.885 1.2 Buy
08/06/19 Lim & Tan Genting 0.885 0 Hold

Fu Yu - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/02/19 DMG & Partners Fu Yu 0.19 0.23 Buy DCF
01/04/19 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.186 0.27 Buy EV/Ebitda 5.3x FY19
01/15/19 CIMB Fu Yu 0.2 0.2 Hold PB0.9x
02/08/19 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.205 0.27 Buy
02/27/19 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.21 0.285 Buy
02/27/19 Lim & Tan Fu Yu 0.21 0 Buy
02/28/19 DMG & Partners Fu Yu 0.215 0.24 Buy DCF
02/28/19 CIMB Fu Yu 0.215 0.2 Hold
03/13/19 DMG & Partners Fu Yu 0.205 0.24 Buy
03/26/19 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.2 0.285 Buy
04/15/19 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.205 0.285 Buy EV/Ebitda5.5x
05/07/19 DMG & Partners Fu Yu 0.21 0.24 Buy DCF
05/10/19 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.205 0.285 Buy
05/10/19 Lim & Tan Fu Yu 0.205 0 Buy
06/06/19 DMG & Partners Fu Yu 0.19 0.24 Buy
06/13/19 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.2 0.29 Buy
07/09/19 DMG & Partners Fu Yu 0.215 0.24 Buy DCF
07/15/19 UOB Kay Hian Fu Yu 0.215 0.29 Buy

Frencken - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
03/12/19 Amfrasers Frencken 0.51 0.67 Buy PER10x FY19
04/15/19 DBS Vickers Frencken 0.6 0.75 Buy PER8.5x FY19/20
04/17/19 CIMB Frencken 0.635 0.9 Add PER10x FY20
05/09/19 DMG & Partners Frencken 0.615 0.82 Buy DCF
05/10/19 DBS Vickers Frencken 0.615 0.75 Buy PER8.5x FY19/20
05/10/19 Lim & Tan Frencken 0.615 0 Buy
05/10/19 CIMB Frencken 0.615 0.9 Add
05/14/19 Amfrasers Frencken 0.595 0.67 Buy PER10x FY19
06/12/19 DMG & Partners Frencken 0.625 0.82 Buy DCF

Stock calls for 6 August 2019

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
08/06/19 DMG & Partners APAC Realty 0.525 0.65 Buy DCF
08/06/19 DBS Vickers APAC Realty 0.525 0.48 Hold PER10x FY20
08/06/19 UOB Kay Hian First Resources 1.53 1.6 Hold
08/06/19 Kim Eng Genting 0.885 0.99 Hold
08/06/19 Citibank Genting 0.885 1.07 Buy
08/06/19 CIMB Genting 0.885 1 Add EV/Ebitda8x CY20
08/06/19 DBS Vickers Genting 0.885 1.2 Buy
08/06/19 Lim & Tan Genting 0.885 0 Hold
08/06/19 CIMB Hongkong Land 5.74 7.4 Add
08/06/19 Citibank Hongkong Land 5.74 5.85 Sell
08/06/19 DBS Vickers Keppel Reit 1.2 1.45 Buy
08/06/19 UOB Kay Hian Netlink 0.88 0.92 Buy DCF
08/06/19 Phillip Netlink 0.88 0.93 Accumulate DCF
08/06/19 CIMB OCBC 11.08 12.59 Hold GGM, PB1.3x
08/06/19 Macquarie Sembcorp Marine 1.28 1.4 Neutral PB
08/06/19 Amfrasers Sheng Siong 1.16 1.27 Outperform
08/06/19 OCBC Starhill 0.775 0.81 Buy
08/06/19 CIMB UOB 25.91 29.58 Add GGM, PB1.3x

How did the US end up on the receiving end of the US-China trade war?

How did the US end up on the receiving end instead of China?

1. The US underestimated Zhong Shan. Zhong Shan is a hawkish hardliner and we've given a brief description of him in our previous post.


2. The US didn’t understand the implicit message that was sent by China in Shanghai.


3. The US didn’t understand China economic structure.



4. The US flip-flopped on many issues and created distrust in the trade talk.

How many cards can China use against the US?

The other play cards that China can use against the US:

1. Iran oil
2. Venezuela oil
3. Rare earth
4. RMB depreciation
5. Tariffs
6. North Korea

A few of these will create big headaches for the US already.

The US is trying to raise tension in Asia with its missiles deployment. - Part 2

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/china-counter-u-deployment-intermediate-014010978.html

China has started to warn Asian countries about hosting the US missiles that are targeting China.

We were very concerned about this and did a post recently.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/the-us-is-trying-to-raise-tension-in.html

The US has labelled China as a currency manipulator.

There is no doubt that the US-China trade war will escalate.

What will China do after being labelled as a currency manipulator?

China may ban US oil imports and start to import more Iran oil.  This will definitely irk the US and render US sanctions against Iran as ineffective.  When China imports more Iran oil, it will disrupt the oil market because China will be cutting back oil purchases from other oil producers.  This will cause oil prices to fall and impact the US shale oil industry.

China has more cards to play with the US and China has not announced its own tariffs yet.

Inverse relationship between China A50 and RMB. - Part 3

Black line: USD/CNY
Green line: China A50

Look at what a falling RMB has done to China A50! China has allowed RMB to breach the 7 mark without any FX intervention.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/inverse-relationship-between-china-a50.html

Monday, August 5, 2019

The US is trying to raise tension in Asia with its missiles deployment.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/us-wants-quickly-deploy-missiles-asia-esper-103048072.html

The US wants to deploy its missiles in Asia to target China.  This will definitely raise tension between Asian countries and China.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/australia-wont-host-u-missiles-063447999.html

The new Aussie PM understood the danger of hosting the US missiles and won't allow it in Australia.

I hope that SG won't allow it too because China will aim its missiles at SG when we've US missiles targeting China.  The Sino-SG relationship will also turn south because of the US missiles.

Frasers Property - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/02/18 Lim & Tan Frasers Property 2.08 0 Buy
02/12/18 CIMB Frasers Property 1.96 2.4 Add RNAV (30% discount)
02/12/18 DBS Vickers Frasers Property 1.96 2.35 Buy RNAV (20% discount), PB1x
04/13/18 DBS Vickers Frasers Property 1.96 2.35 Buy
05/11/18 CIMB Frasers Property 1.95 2.4 Add
07/06/18 DBS Vickers Frasers Property 1.67 2.35 Buy
07/09/18 DBS Vickers Frasers Property 1.58 1.9 Buy RNAV (35% discount)
08/13/18 DBS Vickers Frasers Property 1.71 1.98 Buy RNAV (35% discount)
08/13/18 CIMB Frasers Property 1.71 2.02 Add RNAV (35% discount)
11/12/18 CIMB Frasers Property 1.62 2.08 Add RNAV (35% discount)
11/13/18 DBS Vickers Frasers Property 1.63 1.98 Buy RNAV (35% discount)
01/17/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Property 1.74 1.98 Buy RNAV (35% discount)
02/14/19 CIMB Frasers Property 1.7 2.08 Add
02/14/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Property 1.7 1.98 Buy RNAV (35% discount)
03/22/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Property 1.77 1.98 Buy RNAV (35% discount)
04/08/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Property 1.81 1.98 Buy
04/10/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Property 1.84 2.3 Buy RNAV (35% discount)
05/06/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Property 1.89 2.3 Buy RNAV (35% discount)
05/07/19 CIMB Frasers Property 1.85 2.08 Add

Frasers Logistics - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/28/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Logistics 1.06 1.2 Buy DCF
01/28/19 OCBC Frasers Logistics 1.06 1.19 Buy
01/28/19 CIMB Frasers Logistics 1.06 1.19 Add
02/08/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Logistics 1.09 1.2 Buy
04/03/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Logistics 1.16 1.2 Buy
04/30/19 OCBC Frasers Logistics 1.18 1.2 Hold
05/02/19 CIMB Frasers Logistics 1.18 1.21 Hold DDM
06/28/19 OCBC Frasers Logistics 1.19 1.2 Hold
07/04/19 OCBC Frasers Logistics 1.23 1.2 Hold
07/04/19 Lim & Tan Frasers Logistics 1.23 0 Hold
07/04/19 CIMB Frasers Logistics 1.23 1.25 Hold

Frasers Hospitality Trust - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/01/19 Kim Eng Frasers Hospitality Trust 0.735 0.8 Buy DDM
02/01/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Hospitality Trust 0.735 0.78 Buy
02/04/19 UOB Kay Hian Frasers Hospitality Trust 0.74 0.82 Buy
05/03/19 Kim Eng Frasers Hospitality Trust 0.745 0.85 Buy
05/03/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Hospitality Trust 0.745 0.77 Hold DCF
07/12/19 DBS Vickers Frasers Hospitality Trust 0.72 0.77 Hold DCF

Stock calls for 5 August 2019

Date Analyst Code Company Last Target Call Percent Valuation
08/05/19 DMG & Partners 5DA Breadtalk 0.69 0.71 Neutral 2.90 Sum of parts
08/05/19 DMG & Partners D01 Dairy Farm 7.6 7.38 Neutral -2.89 DCF
08/05/19 DMG & Partners G13 Genting 0.9 0.97 Neutral 7.78 EV/Ebitda7x FY19
08/05/19 UOB Kay Hian G13 Genting 0.9 1.11 Buy 23.33
08/05/19 DBS Vickers H17 Hi-P 1.34 1.32 Hold -1.49 PER12x FY20
08/05/19 DBS Vickers H78 Hongkong Land 6.02 7.7 Buy 27.91 RNAV (40% discount)
08/05/19 DBS Vickers 5JS Indofood Agri 0.32 0.29 Hold -9.38 DCF
08/05/19 DBS Vickers UD2 Japfa 0.5 0.53 Hold 6.00 Sum of parts (10% discount), PER12.5x FY19
08/05/19 phillip O39 OCBC 11.21 12.5 Accumulate 11.51 GGM, PB1.3x
08/05/19 DMG & Partners O39 OCBC 11.21 11.8 Neutral 5.26 GGM, PB1.1x FY20
08/05/19 UOB Kay Hian O39 OCBC 11.21 14.48 Buy 29.17
08/05/19 DBS Vickers O39 OCBC 11.21 11.5 Hold 2.59
08/05/19 DBS Vickers E8Z Roxy-Pacific 0.39 0.39 Hold 0.00 RNAV (55% discount)
08/05/19 CIMB S68 SGX 7.98 8.1 Hold 1.50 PER21.5x
08/05/19 UOB Kay Hian S08 Singapore Post 0.965 1.04 Hold 7.77 Sum of parts
08/05/19 DBS Vickers S08 Singapore Post 0.965 0.96 Hold -0.52
08/05/19 Lim & Tan S08 Singapore Post 0.965 0 Hold -100.00
08/05/19 phillip U11 UOB 26 28.6 Accumulate 10.00 GGM, PB1.3x
08/05/19 DBS Vickers U11 UOB 26 29.2 Buy 12.31
08/05/19 Kim Eng U11 UOB 26 29.13 Buy 12.04 DDM

China has suspended US agricultural purchases and depreciated its yuan.

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/dow-futures-dive-as-china-retaliates-on-trade-yuan-falls-to-decade-low-v-dollar-15044374?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO&yptr=yahoo

China has not retaliated with its own tariffs yet but suspended the US agricultural purchases.  China doesn't want to show hand its tariff card yet.  This will create more uncertainty in the stock market because investors don't want to catch a falling knife.

We had already stated that China was no longer interested in US agricultural purchases in our previous post.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/trump-is-in-trouble-because-china-is-no.html

China had stipulated its tough stance on the wall during the US-China trade talk in Shanghai but the US team didn't get it.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/the-us-trade-talk-team-didnt-get.html

The US doesn't understand that the US tariffs don't impact China's economy much nowadays and China has learnt how to cope with the tariffs already.  Therefore, additional tariffs won't force China to bend over.

Hong Kong economy will be heavily impacted by these protests.

The latest information I've gathered from China is that China has issued HK travel restriction to Guangzhou for safety reason.  As the majority of the Chinese visitors are from Guangzhou, this will impact tourism in HK.

I do not support these protestors for the reasons cited in my previous post below.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/hong-kong-pro-democracy-activists-are.html

Many inbound and outbound flights are cancelled in HK today because of the protest today.  When HK economy collapses, HK will still need China to bail it out again by directing Chinese companies to invest in HK.  There is no way for HK to be independent and yet it wants China to be its saviour whenever it faces an economic collapse.  Nobody can accept this!