It is easy to comprehend Taiwan's motive for supporting HK protests because it wants to gain independence and reject the 1 country 2 systems structure.
However, the US has a more sinister motive in engineering the HK protests.
The US embassy has about 1,000 staffs in HK. Why does the US put so many of its own people in a small country like HK? HK has about 7m people and this means that 1 US staff can monitor 700 Hongkongers.
The US is using HK to gather a lot of intelligence because China has decimated its spying network in the mainland.
https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/07/the-truth-behind-hk-protests.html
Therefore, the US will reject HK's extradition bill at all costs because it wants to protect its own citizens from any crime especially from espionage. Although the bill is dead, the US still continues to engineer more protests because it feels that it can make more demands.
The outcome of this whole event will be very bad and the Hongkongers will be the ones paying a huge price.
Saturday, August 10, 2019
IMF defended China after the US called it a currency manipulator.
https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/imf-says-china-may-more-201233307.html
The US called China a currency manipulator after China's refusal to support its RMB. Basically, the US wants China to manipulate its RMB. When China refuses to do so, the US labels China as a manipulator. Does this sound right?
The IMF has come out to defend China now because it is really ridiculous to label China as a manipulator when China stops intervening its RMB.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/the-us-has-labelled-china-as-currency.html
The US is making itself a laughing stock in the whole world.
The US called China a currency manipulator after China's refusal to support its RMB. Basically, the US wants China to manipulate its RMB. When China refuses to do so, the US labels China as a manipulator. Does this sound right?
The IMF has come out to defend China now because it is really ridiculous to label China as a manipulator when China stops intervening its RMB.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/the-us-has-labelled-china-as-currency.html
The US is making itself a laughing stock in the whole world.
Baltic dry index - 1748
Today, Friday, August 09 2019, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 28 points, reaching 1748 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
=======================
Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.
Friday, August 9, 2019
The US-China trade war is escalating!
https://www.yahoo.com/news/u-holds-off-huawei-licenses-210704605.html
Timeline of escalation:
The US would impose 10% additional China tariffs on 1 September 2019.
China retaliated by suspending US agricultural purchases and also stopped its support for RMB-US $7 level.
The US withheld Huawei licences.
========================
We can see that the trade war has metastasized. The escalation pattern is usually depicted in the following 4 stages.
Trade war -----> Currency war -----> Financial war ------> Economic war
We are currently at the beginning of stage 2 (currency war).
Timeline of escalation:
The US would impose 10% additional China tariffs on 1 September 2019.
China retaliated by suspending US agricultural purchases and also stopped its support for RMB-US $7 level.
The US withheld Huawei licences.
========================
We can see that the trade war has metastasized. The escalation pattern is usually depicted in the following 4 stages.
Trade war -----> Currency war -----> Financial war ------> Economic war
We are currently at the beginning of stage 2 (currency war).
Thursday, August 8, 2019
GSS Energy - Stock calls
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
01/07/19 | DMG & Partners | GSS Energy | 0.097 | 0.19 | Buy | |
03/04/19 | DMG & Partners | GSS Energy | 0.112 | 0.17 | Buy | DCF |
05/14/19 | DMG & Partners | GSS Energy | 0.081 | 0.08 | Neutral | DCF |
06/06/19 | DMG & Partners | GSS Energy | 0.069 | 0.08 | Neutral |
Grand Venture - Stock calls
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
04/04/19 | CIMB | Grand Venture | 0.25 | 0.34 | Add | PER10x FY20 |
Golden Energy - Stock calls
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
02/13/19 | phillip | Golden Energy | 0.245 | 0.36 | Buy | |
03/07/19 | phillip | Golden Energy | 0.235 | 0.3 | Buy | PER10x |
04/26/19 | phillip | Golden Energy | 0.215 | 0.3 | Buy | |
05/24/19 | phillip | Golden Energy | 0.198 | 0.24 | Accumulate | PER10x |
06/03/19 | phillip | Golden Energy | 0.198 | 0.24 | Accumulate | |
07/04/19 | phillip | Golden Energy | 0.225 | 0.24 | Accumulate |
Stock calls for 8 August 2019
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
08/08/19 | Phillip | APAC Realty | 0.515 | 0.58 | Buy | DCF |
08/08/19 | UOB Kay Hian | BRC Asia | 1.31 | 1.75 | Buy | PER11.5x FY20 |
08/08/19 | DMG & Partners | China Aviation Oil | 1.23 | 1.6 | Buy | |
08/08/19 | phillip | China Sunsine | 1.08 | 1.43 | Buy | FCFE |
08/08/19 | phillip | EC World Reit | 0.735 | 0.87 | Buy | DDM |
08/08/19 | DMG & Partners | EC World Reit | 0.735 | 0.82 | Buy | DDM |
08/08/19 | DMG & Partners | Jumbo | 0.375 | 0.47 | Buy | DCF |
08/08/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Jumbo | 0.375 | 0.37 | Hold | |
08/08/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Koufu | 0.71 | 0.95 | Buy | |
08/08/19 | DBS Vickers | Koufu | 0.71 | 0.88 | Buy | PER17x FY20 |
08/08/19 | DBS Vickers | Sasseur | 0.8 | 0.97 | Buy | DCF |
08/08/19 | DMG & Partners | Singapore Medical | 0.37 | 0.48 | Buy | DCF |
08/08/19 | Kim Eng | Singtel | 3.29 | 3.44 | Hold | Sum of parts |
Wednesday, August 7, 2019
Golden Agri - Stock calls
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
01/03/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Golden Agri | 0.245 | 0.2 | Sell | |
01/28/19 | DMG & Partners | Golden Agri | 0.27 | 0.23 | Sell | Sum of parts, PER10x, cut from $0.39 |
02/20/19 | OCBC | Golden Agri | 0.255 | 0.24 | Hold | |
02/27/19 | DMG & Partners | Golden Agri | 0.28 | 0.23 | Sell | Sum of parts |
02/28/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Golden Agri | 0.28 | 0.21 | Sell | |
03/01/19 | CIMB | Golden Agri | 0.275 | 0.23 | Reduce | Sum of parts (10% discount) |
03/01/19 | OCBC | Golden Agri | 0.275 | 0.27 | Hold | |
04/09/19 | OCBC | Golden Agri | 0.315 | 0.29 | Hold | PB0.65x |
04/09/19 | CIMB | Golden Agri | 0.315 | 0.23 | Reduce | |
04/22/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Golden Agri | 0.295 | 0.21 | Sell | |
05/14/19 | OCBC | Golden Agri | 0.275 | 0.29 | Hold | |
05/15/19 | DMG & Partners | Golden Agri | 0.275 | 0.23 | Sell | Sum of parts |
05/27/19 | OCBC | Golden Agri | 0.265 | 0.27 | Hold | |
05/28/19 | CIMB | Golden Agri | 0.26 | 0.23 | Reduce | Sum of parts (10% discount) |
05/28/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Golden Agri | 0.26 | 0.21 | Sell |
GL Ltd - Stock calls
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
02/07/19 | Lim & Tan | GL Ltd | 0.735 | 1.76 | Buy | Sum of parts |
Geo Energy - Stock calls
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
01/04/19 | phillip | Geo Energy | 0.176 | 0.245 | Buy | |
02/13/19 | phillip | Geo Energy | 0.198 | 0.245 | Buy | |
03/18/19 | phillip | Geo Energy | 0.183 | 0.245 | Buy | |
03/25/19 | phillip | Geo Energy | 0.186 | 0.215 | Accumulate | PER10x |
03/26/19 | Amfrasers | Geo Energy | 0.182 | 0.19 | Hold | DCF |
04/26/19 | phillip | Geo Energy | 0.176 | 0.215 | Accumulate | |
05/29/19 | phillip | Geo Energy | 0.148 | 0.15 | Neutral | PER10x |
06/03/19 | phillip | Geo Energy | 0.149 | 0.15 | Neutral | |
07/04/19 | phillip | Geo Energy | 0.155 | 0.15 | Neutral |
Stock calls for 7 August 2019
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
08/07/19 | OCBC | Capitaland | 3.48 | 4.04 | Buy | |
08/07/19 | DBS Vickers | Jumbo | 0.38 | 0.47 | Buy | PER23x FY20 |
08/07/19 | Kim Eng | Netlink | 0.865 | 0.94 | Buy | DDM |
08/07/19 | DBS Vickers | Netlink | 0.865 | 0.95 | Buy | DCF |
08/07/19 | phillip | Penguin | 0.495 | 0.61 | Buy | PER5x FY19 (ex-cash) |
08/07/19 | OCBC | Singapore Post | 0.945 | 1 | Hold | |
08/07/19 | DBS Vickers | Singtel | 3.52 | 3.4 | Hold | Sum of parts |
08/07/19 | Phillip | Starhub | 1.48 | 1.58 | Accumlate | EV/Ebitda6x |
08/07/19 | DMG & Partners | Starhub | 1.48 | 1.52 | Neutral | DCF |
08/07/19 | OCBC | Starhub | 1.48 | 1.52 | Hold | |
08/07/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Starhub | 1.48 | 1.45 | Sell | |
08/07/19 | DBS Vickers | Starhub | 1.48 | 1.55 | Hold | EV/Ebitda 6.6x FY19 |
08/07/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Sunningdale | 1.28 | 1.01 | Sell | |
08/07/19 | DBS Vickers | Yangzijiang | 1.37 | 1.82 | Buy | Sum of parts |
Tuesday, August 6, 2019
Many analysts don't understand economics at all.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-could-unleash-this-weapon-on-the-financial-markets-to-wallop-the-us-152709274.html
The analysts who suggested that China could be selling its US treasuries to punish the US were either stupid or didn't understand economics at all.
We've stated before that China would not sell its US treasuries to punish the US but only to support its RMB.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/06/china-has-started-to-sell-us-treasuries.html
We left out the US treasuries in our post below because we knew that the US treasuries would not be one of the cards that China would hand out.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/how-many-cards-can-china-use-against-us.html
The analysts who suggested that China could be selling its US treasuries to punish the US were either stupid or didn't understand economics at all.
We've stated before that China would not sell its US treasuries to punish the US but only to support its RMB.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/06/china-has-started-to-sell-us-treasuries.html
We left out the US treasuries in our post below because we knew that the US treasuries would not be one of the cards that China would hand out.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/how-many-cards-can-china-use-against-us.html
Genting - Stock calls
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
01/02/19 | DMG & Partners | Genting | 0.975 | 1.23 | Buy | DCF |
01/15/19 | Kim Eng | Genting | 1.03 | 1.26 | Buy | EV/Ebitda9x FY19 |
01/28/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Genting | 1.06 | 1.38 | Buy | EV/Ebitda10x FY19 |
02/15/19 | DMG & Partners | Genting | 1.1 | 1.23 | Buy | DCF |
02/22/19 | CIMB | Genting | 1.11 | 1.28 | Add | EV/Ebitda9x CY20 |
02/22/19 | OCBC | Genting | 1.11 | 1.31 | Buy | FCFE |
02/22/19 | DMG & Partners | Genting | 1.11 | 1.22 | Buy | DCF |
02/22/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Genting | 1.11 | 1.32 | Buy | |
02/22/19 | Kim Eng | Genting | 1.11 | 1.26 | Buy | EV/Ebitda9x FY19 |
02/25/19 | DBS Vickers | Genting | 1.07 | 1.54 | Buy | EV/Ebitda12x |
03/13/19 | DMG & Partners | Genting | 1.02 | 1.22 | Buy | |
03/26/19 | CIMB | Genting | 1.03 | 1.28 | Add | |
04/04/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Genting | 1.07 | 1.26 | Buy | EV/Ebitda 9x |
04/04/19 | DMG & Partners | Genting | 1.07 | 1.08 | Neutral | DCF |
04/04/19 | CIMB | Genting | 1.07 | 1.11 | Add | EV/Ebitda8x |
04/04/19 | OCBC | Genting | 1.07 | 1.31 | Buy | |
04/04/19 | DBS Vickers | Genting | 1.07 | 1.54 | Buy | EV/Ebitda 12x |
04/04/19 | Kim Eng | Genting | 1.07 | 1.12 | Hold | EV/Ebitda 8x FY19 |
04/04/19 | Citibank | Genting | 1.07 | 1.28 | Buy | |
05/10/19 | Kim Eng | Genting | 0.95 | 1.04 | Hold | |
05/10/19 | OCBC | Genting | 0.95 | 1.23 | Buy | |
05/10/19 | DMG & Partners | Genting | 0.95 | 1.02 | Neutral | DCF |
05/10/19 | CIMB | Genting | 0.95 | 1.06 | Add | EV/Ebitda8x CY20 |
05/10/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Genting | 0.95 | 1.26 | Buy | |
05/10/19 | DBS Vickers | Genting | 0.95 | 1.2 | Buy | DCF |
05/10/19 | Citibank | Genting | 0.95 | 1.16 | Buy | |
06/06/19 | DMG & Partners | Genting | 0.86 | 1.02 | Neutral | |
06/24/19 | CIMB | Genting | 0.93 | 1.06 | Add | |
08/05/19 | DMG & Partners | Genting | 0.9 | 0.97 | Neutral | EV/Ebitda7x FY19 |
08/05/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Genting | 0.9 | 1.11 | Buy | |
08/06/19 | Kim Eng | Genting | 0.885 | 0.99 | Hold | |
08/06/19 | Citibank | Genting | 0.885 | 1.07 | Buy | |
08/06/19 | CIMB | Genting | 0.885 | 1 | Add | EV/Ebitda8x CY20 |
08/06/19 | DBS Vickers | Genting | 0.885 | 1.2 | Buy | |
08/06/19 | Lim & Tan | Genting | 0.885 | 0 | Hold |
Fu Yu - Stock calls
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
01/02/19 | DMG & Partners | Fu Yu | 0.19 | 0.23 | Buy | DCF |
01/04/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Fu Yu | 0.186 | 0.27 | Buy | EV/Ebitda 5.3x FY19 |
01/15/19 | CIMB | Fu Yu | 0.2 | 0.2 | Hold | PB0.9x |
02/08/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Fu Yu | 0.205 | 0.27 | Buy | |
02/27/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Fu Yu | 0.21 | 0.285 | Buy | |
02/27/19 | Lim & Tan | Fu Yu | 0.21 | 0 | Buy | |
02/28/19 | DMG & Partners | Fu Yu | 0.215 | 0.24 | Buy | DCF |
02/28/19 | CIMB | Fu Yu | 0.215 | 0.2 | Hold | |
03/13/19 | DMG & Partners | Fu Yu | 0.205 | 0.24 | Buy | |
03/26/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Fu Yu | 0.2 | 0.285 | Buy | |
04/15/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Fu Yu | 0.205 | 0.285 | Buy | EV/Ebitda5.5x |
05/07/19 | DMG & Partners | Fu Yu | 0.21 | 0.24 | Buy | DCF |
05/10/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Fu Yu | 0.205 | 0.285 | Buy | |
05/10/19 | Lim & Tan | Fu Yu | 0.205 | 0 | Buy | |
06/06/19 | DMG & Partners | Fu Yu | 0.19 | 0.24 | Buy | |
06/13/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Fu Yu | 0.2 | 0.29 | Buy | |
07/09/19 | DMG & Partners | Fu Yu | 0.215 | 0.24 | Buy | DCF |
07/15/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Fu Yu | 0.215 | 0.29 | Buy |
Frencken - Stock calls
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
03/12/19 | Amfrasers | Frencken | 0.51 | 0.67 | Buy | PER10x FY19 |
04/15/19 | DBS Vickers | Frencken | 0.6 | 0.75 | Buy | PER8.5x FY19/20 |
04/17/19 | CIMB | Frencken | 0.635 | 0.9 | Add | PER10x FY20 |
05/09/19 | DMG & Partners | Frencken | 0.615 | 0.82 | Buy | DCF |
05/10/19 | DBS Vickers | Frencken | 0.615 | 0.75 | Buy | PER8.5x FY19/20 |
05/10/19 | Lim & Tan | Frencken | 0.615 | 0 | Buy | |
05/10/19 | CIMB | Frencken | 0.615 | 0.9 | Add | |
05/14/19 | Amfrasers | Frencken | 0.595 | 0.67 | Buy | PER10x FY19 |
06/12/19 | DMG & Partners | Frencken | 0.625 | 0.82 | Buy | DCF |
Stock calls for 6 August 2019
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
08/06/19 | DMG & Partners | APAC Realty | 0.525 | 0.65 | Buy | DCF |
08/06/19 | DBS Vickers | APAC Realty | 0.525 | 0.48 | Hold | PER10x FY20 |
08/06/19 | UOB Kay Hian | First Resources | 1.53 | 1.6 | Hold | |
08/06/19 | Kim Eng | Genting | 0.885 | 0.99 | Hold | |
08/06/19 | Citibank | Genting | 0.885 | 1.07 | Buy | |
08/06/19 | CIMB | Genting | 0.885 | 1 | Add | EV/Ebitda8x CY20 |
08/06/19 | DBS Vickers | Genting | 0.885 | 1.2 | Buy | |
08/06/19 | Lim & Tan | Genting | 0.885 | 0 | Hold | |
08/06/19 | CIMB | Hongkong Land | 5.74 | 7.4 | Add | |
08/06/19 | Citibank | Hongkong Land | 5.74 | 5.85 | Sell | |
08/06/19 | DBS Vickers | Keppel Reit | 1.2 | 1.45 | Buy | |
08/06/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Netlink | 0.88 | 0.92 | Buy | DCF |
08/06/19 | Phillip | Netlink | 0.88 | 0.93 | Accumulate | DCF |
08/06/19 | CIMB | OCBC | 11.08 | 12.59 | Hold | GGM, PB1.3x |
08/06/19 | Macquarie | Sembcorp Marine | 1.28 | 1.4 | Neutral | PB |
08/06/19 | Amfrasers | Sheng Siong | 1.16 | 1.27 | Outperform | |
08/06/19 | OCBC | Starhill | 0.775 | 0.81 | Buy | |
08/06/19 | CIMB | UOB | 25.91 | 29.58 | Add | GGM, PB1.3x |
How did the US end up on the receiving end of the US-China trade war?
How did the US end up on the receiving end instead of China?
1. The US underestimated Zhong Shan. Zhong Shan is a hawkish hardliner and we've given a brief description of him in our previous post.
2. The US didn’t understand the implicit message that was sent by China in Shanghai.
3. The US didn’t understand China economic structure.
4. The US flip-flopped on many issues and created distrust in the trade talk.
How many cards can China use against the US?
The other play cards that China can use against the US:
1. Iran oil
2. Venezuela oil
3. Rare earth
4. RMB depreciation
5. Tariffs
6. North Korea
A few of these will create big headaches for the US already.
1. Iran oil
2. Venezuela oil
3. Rare earth
4. RMB depreciation
5. Tariffs
6. North Korea
A few of these will create big headaches for the US already.
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