Saturday, September 7, 2019
The Hong Kong protest continues after HK CE's telecast.
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/hong-kong-protesters-aim-stress-test-airport-210048026.html
We had already stated that the HK protest would not end because the protestors were paid to protest. Those protestors are not interested in the extradition bill because it is never the goal of their protests. Their goal is to make quick money out of these protests.
https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/latest-hk-chief-executives-telecast.html
https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/the-hk-protestors-have-rejected-hk-ces.html
We hate to be right in our analysis for this kind of situation.
We had already stated that the HK protest would not end because the protestors were paid to protest. Those protestors are not interested in the extradition bill because it is never the goal of their protests. Their goal is to make quick money out of these protests.
https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/latest-hk-chief-executives-telecast.html
https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/the-hk-protestors-have-rejected-hk-ces.html
We hate to be right in our analysis for this kind of situation.
China has just cut the bank's RRR by 50bp!
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3026064/china-cuts-banks-reserve-requirements-latest-effort-boost
China has just cut the bank's RRR by 50bp to stimulate its economy.
Many analysts had expected China to cut its interest rates to stimulate its economy and they were proven to be wrong when China didn't do as they concluded. We had stated in June 2019 that China wouldn't cut its interest rates but would reduce its RRR further.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/07/will-china-cut-its-bank-interest-rates.html
Please read our economic analysis in June to understand the rationale for China not to cut its interest rates.
https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/06/china-has-started-to-sell-us-treasuries.html
China has just cut the bank's RRR by 50bp to stimulate its economy.
Many analysts had expected China to cut its interest rates to stimulate its economy and they were proven to be wrong when China didn't do as they concluded. We had stated in June 2019 that China wouldn't cut its interest rates but would reduce its RRR further.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/07/will-china-cut-its-bank-interest-rates.html
Please read our economic analysis in June to understand the rationale for China not to cut its interest rates.
https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/06/china-has-started-to-sell-us-treasuries.html
Friday, September 6, 2019
Will the US Fed reduce its interest rates in September 2019?
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/the-us-fed-has-cut-interest-rate-by-025.html
We got it right when we predicted a US FED rate cut in July by analyzing the 4 important rates in US.
Let's do it again to see what will happen in September 2019.
Iorr: 2.10% (Falling), Max is 2.25% as set by the FED.
Effr: 2.13% (Falling)
Ioer: 2.10% (Falling)
On RRP: 2%
The official US interest rates set by the FED range from 2% to 2.25% currently.
Effr: 2.13% (Loan rate offered by FED to US bank)
Ioer: 2.10% (Deposit rate offered by FED to US bank for the excess fund)
The spread between Effr and Ioer denotes the monetary supply condition in the US banking system. In other words, the lesser the spread, the looser the monetary supply and vice versa. A shrinking spread describes an easing while a widening spread describes a tightening condition. This spread has not widened which means that there is no monetary tightening in the US. However, the 10-year treasury yield (risk-free rate) is only around 1.5% currently which is below the Ioer (2.1%). Thus, the US FED has to cut its rates to make the Ioer less attractive to the banks in order to stimulate the economy.
Please read the post below to understand the 4 interest rates better.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/whats-happening-to-usd-now-why-is-it.html
The falling rates are signaling that the US FED is likely to cut rates again for it to stay relevant. Furthermore, the US FED is being held hostage by Trump and wall street to cut rates now. Therefore, the US Fed has no choice now, especially the PMI is weakening.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/ism-pmi-analysis-for-us-economy-in.html
If the US Fed dares to defy Trump and Wall Street, the stock markets will crash. I don't see the US Fed having the guts or gumption to fight for its independence and risk crashing the stock markets by putting the rates on hold.
We got it right when we predicted a US FED rate cut in July by analyzing the 4 important rates in US.
Let's do it again to see what will happen in September 2019.
Iorr: 2.10% (Falling), Max is 2.25% as set by the FED.
Effr: 2.13% (Falling)
Ioer: 2.10% (Falling)
On RRP: 2%
The official US interest rates set by the FED range from 2% to 2.25% currently.
Effr: 2.13% (Loan rate offered by FED to US bank)
Ioer: 2.10% (Deposit rate offered by FED to US bank for the excess fund)
The spread between Effr and Ioer denotes the monetary supply condition in the US banking system. In other words, the lesser the spread, the looser the monetary supply and vice versa. A shrinking spread describes an easing while a widening spread describes a tightening condition. This spread has not widened which means that there is no monetary tightening in the US. However, the 10-year treasury yield (risk-free rate) is only around 1.5% currently which is below the Ioer (2.1%). Thus, the US FED has to cut its rates to make the Ioer less attractive to the banks in order to stimulate the economy.
Please read the post below to understand the 4 interest rates better.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/whats-happening-to-usd-now-why-is-it.html
The falling rates are signaling that the US FED is likely to cut rates again for it to stay relevant. Furthermore, the US FED is being held hostage by Trump and wall street to cut rates now. Therefore, the US Fed has no choice now, especially the PMI is weakening.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/ism-pmi-analysis-for-us-economy-in.html
If the US Fed dares to defy Trump and Wall Street, the stock markets will crash. I don't see the US Fed having the guts or gumption to fight for its independence and risk crashing the stock markets by putting the rates on hold.
Penguin - Stock calls
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
04/26/19 | phillip | Penguin | 0.45 | 0.61 | Buy | PER5x FY19 (ex-cash) |
05/21/19 | phillip | Penguin | 0.44 | 0.61 | Buy | PER5x FY19 (ex-cash) |
05/27/19 | CIMB | Penguin | 0.445 | 0.72 | Add | PB1x FY19 |
08/07/19 | phillip | Penguin | 0.495 | 0.61 | Buy | PER5x FY19 (ex-cash) |
Parkway Life - Stock calls
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
01/30/19 | DBS Vickers | Parkway Life | 2.8 | 3.1 | Buy | |
03/18/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Parkway Life | 2.88 | 3.25 | Buy | DDM |
04/01/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Parkway Life | 2.92 | 3.25 | Buy | DDM |
05/02/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Parkway Life | 2.89 | 3.25 | Buy | |
07/31/19 | Lim & Tan | Parkway Life | 3.06 | 0 | Hold | |
08/01/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Parkway Life | 3.06 | 3.25 | Buy | |
08/01/19 | DBS Vickers | Parkway Life | 3.06 | 3.35 | Buy |
Pacific Century - Stock calls
Date
|
Analyst
|
Company
|
Last
|
Target
|
Call
|
Valuation
|
03/04/19
|
Lim & Tan
|
Pacific Century
|
0.385
|
0
|
Buy
|
|
Stock calls for 6 September 2019
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
09/06/19 | DBS Vickers | Capitaland | 3.51 | 4 | Buy | |
09/06/19 | phillip | Clearbridge | 0.142 | 0.26 | Buy | DCF |
09/06/19 | DBS Vickers | CSE Global | 0.47 | 0.65 | Buy | PER12x FY20 |
09/06/19 | DMG & Partners | DBS | 24.63 | 25.3 | Neutral | GGM, PB1.23x FY20 |
09/06/19 | OCBC | Hutchison Port | 0.22 | 0.17 | Hold | |
09/06/19 | DMG & Partners | Keppel Pacific | 0.74 | 0.88 | Buy | DDM |
Thursday, September 5, 2019
The US-China trade war is not subsiding.
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/us-imposes-duties-on-structural-steel-from-china--mexico-11874126
The US has imposed duties on China's structural steel.
China has to recognize that the US cannot be trusted and will renege on its promises like a thug.
There is no need to be a gentleman when it comes to dealing with the US because the US will not show any goodwill gesture prior to the October meeting.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/the-us-china-trade-talk-is-deferred-to.html
The US has imposed duties on China's structural steel.
China has to recognize that the US cannot be trusted and will renege on its promises like a thug.
There is no need to be a gentleman when it comes to dealing with the US because the US will not show any goodwill gesture prior to the October meeting.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/the-us-china-trade-talk-is-deferred-to.html
PACC Offshore - Stock calls
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
02/26/19 | DBS Vickers | PACC Offshore | 0.183 | 0.2 | Hold | PB0.8x FY19 |
05/14/19 | DBS Vickers | PACC Offshore | 0.173 | 0.2 | Hold | PB0.8x FY19 |
Oxley - Stock calls
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
05/02/19 | DBS Vickers | Oxley | 0.325 | 0.68 | Buy | |
06/13/19 | DMG & Partners | Oxley | 0.31 | 0.41 | Buy | RNAV (45% discount) |
Overseas Education - Stock calls
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
04/23/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Overseas Edu | 0.33 | 0.46 | Buy | EV/Ebitda10.4x |
05/08/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Overseas Edu | 0.3 | 0.46 | Buy | EV/Ebitda10.4x |
05/08/19 | Lim & Tan | Overseas Edu | 0.3 | 0.48 | Buy | DDM & DCF |
08/19/19 | UOB Kay Hian | Overseas Edu | 0.285 | 0.46 | Buy |
Stock calls for 5 September 2019
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
09/05/19 | Lim & Tan | Capitaland | 3.49 | 0 | Accumulate | |
09/05/19 | phillip | DBS | 24.54 | 27.6 | Accumulate | |
09/05/19 | UOB Kay Hian | OCBC | 10.71 | 14.48 | Buy | GGM |
09/05/19 | DMG & Partners | Silverlake | 0.455 | 0.56 | Buy | DCF |
09/05/19 | phillip | UOB | 25.1 | 28.6 | Accumulate |
The HK protestors have rejected the HK CE's pacification.
Just as we expected, the HK protectors have rejected her compromise and pacification.
The HK protestors are paid to protest and they will not accept any favourable outcome even if the government relented.
https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/latest-hk-chief-executives-telecast.html
They claimed the relentment came too little and too late but they never thought that late was better than never. Eventually, they will push themselves into a corner and regret this later.
The HK protestors are paid to protest and they will not accept any favourable outcome even if the government relented.
https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/latest-hk-chief-executives-telecast.html
They claimed the relentment came too little and too late but they never thought that late was better than never. Eventually, they will push themselves into a corner and regret this later.
The US-China trade talk is deferred to October 2019.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-u-hold-trade-talks-014856242.html
The US-China trade talk is deferred to October 2019 from September 2019. Will the October meeting take place? The US will impose another set of tariffs on 1 October and China will definitely retaliate against that.
The US has to end this trade war fast because its bleak economic numbers are showing up in the PMI now.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/ism-pmi-analysis-for-us-economy-in.html
The weakening PMI will cause the GDP number to dive and Trump has to stop the hemorrhage before he loses his election.
The US-China trade talk is deferred to October 2019 from September 2019. Will the October meeting take place? The US will impose another set of tariffs on 1 October and China will definitely retaliate against that.
The US has to end this trade war fast because its bleak economic numbers are showing up in the PMI now.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/ism-pmi-analysis-for-us-economy-in.html
The weakening PMI will cause the GDP number to dive and Trump has to stop the hemorrhage before he loses his election.
Wednesday, September 4, 2019
Latest HK Chief Executive's telecast.
No! This is because she is not eradicating the root cause of the problems (protests). This uprising of the Hongkongers is engineered by the US, UK and Taiwan. She must uproot those paid lackeys to end the protests. The protestors don't even understand what they're protesting. Therefore, it is useless to pacify the protestors as they will keep shifting their goal poles.
Cathy Pacific is a high risk airliner! Fly at your own risk!
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/3025421/cathay-pacific-suspends-cabin-crew-two-flights-found
Cathy Pacific employees committed a terrorist act by depleting the oxygen bottles.
Cathy Pacific chairman has resigned after the terrorist act was committed by his employees.
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/hong-kong-cathay-pacific-chairman-resigns-11872184
We had warned about a flight risk with Cathy Pacific previously in our post below.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/cathy-pacific-suspends-ticket-sales-at.html
China is right to scrutinize Cathy Pacific employees flying in and out of China airspace.
Cathy Pacific employees committed a terrorist act by depleting the oxygen bottles.
Cathy Pacific chairman has resigned after the terrorist act was committed by his employees.
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/hong-kong-cathay-pacific-chairman-resigns-11872184
We had warned about a flight risk with Cathy Pacific previously in our post below.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/cathy-pacific-suspends-ticket-sales-at.html
China is right to scrutinize Cathy Pacific employees flying in and out of China airspace.
Hot news! Singapore general election is coming!
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/pm-lee-convenes-electoral-boundaries-review-committee-091256644.html
It looks like SG GE is coming in a few months time according to the historical record.
Why?
This is because the economy will be so bad next year that there will be more opposition voices.
It looks like SG GE is coming in a few months time according to the historical record.
Why?
This is because the economy will be so bad next year that there will be more opposition voices.
OUE Lippo HC - Stock calls
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
03/11/19 | Soochow SSD | OUE Lippo HC | 0.066 | 0.088 | Buy | Sum of parts |
OUE Hospitality - Stock calls
Date | Analyst | Company | Last | Target | Call | Valuation |
01/02/19 | CIMB | OUE Hospitality | 0.67 | 0.85 | Add | DDM |
01/16/19 | OCBC | OUE Hospitality | 0.685 | 0.79 | Buy | |
01/30/19 | DBS Vickers | OUE Hospitality | 0.695 | 0.85 | Buy | DCF |
01/31/19 | OCBC | OUE Hospitality | 0.725 | 0.82 | Buy | |
03/18/19 | DMG & Partners | OUE Hospitality | 0.725 | 0.77 | Buy | |
04/09/19 | DMG & Partners | OUE Hospitality | 0.735 | 0.76 | Take Profit | Accept offer |
04/09/19 | DBS Vickers | OUE Hospitality | 0.735 | 0.85 | Buy | |
04/10/19 | CIMB | OUE Hospitality | 0.725 | 0.85 | Add | |
05/03/19 | CIMB | OUE Hospitality | 0.72 | 0.85 | Add | |
06/06/19 | DMG & Partners | OUE Hospitality | 0.68 | 0.76 | Take Profit | |
07/04/19 | DMG & Partners | OUE Hospitality | 0.72 | 0.76 | Take Profit |
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