The Hong Kong protest continues after HK CE's telecast.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/hong-kong-protesters-aim-stress-test-airport-210048026.html

We had already stated that the HK protest would not end because the protestors were paid to protest.  Those protestors are not interested in the extradition bill because it is never the goal of their protests.  Their goal is to make quick money out of these protests.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/latest-hk-chief-executives-telecast.html

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/the-hk-protestors-have-rejected-hk-ces.html

We hate to be right in our analysis for this kind of situation.

China has just cut the bank's RRR by 50bp!

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3026064/china-cuts-banks-reserve-requirements-latest-effort-boost

China has just cut the bank's RRR by 50bp to stimulate its economy.

Many analysts had expected China to cut its interest rates to stimulate its economy and they were proven to be wrong when China didn't do as they concluded.  We had stated in June 2019 that China wouldn't cut its interest rates but would reduce its RRR further.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/07/will-china-cut-its-bank-interest-rates.html

Please read our economic analysis in June to understand the rationale for China not to cut its interest rates.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/06/china-has-started-to-sell-us-treasuries.html

Will the US Fed reduce its interest rates in September 2019?

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/the-us-fed-has-cut-interest-rate-by-025.html

We got it right when we predicted a US FED rate cut in July by analyzing the 4 important rates in US.

Let's do it again to see what will happen in September 2019.

Iorr: 2.10% (Falling), Max is 2.25% as set by the FED.

Effr: 2.13% (Falling)

Ioer: 2.10% (Falling)

On RRP: 2%

The official US interest rates set by the FED range from 2% to 2.25% currently.

Effr: 2.13% (Loan rate offered by FED to US bank)
Ioer: 2.10% (Deposit rate offered by FED to US bank for the excess fund)

The spread between Effr and Ioer denotes the monetary supply condition in the US banking system.  In other words, the lesser the spread, the looser the monetary supply and vice versa.  A shrinking spread describes an easing while a widening spread describes a tightening condition.  This spread has not widened which means that there is no monetary tightening in the US.  However, the 10-year treasury yield (risk-free rate) is only around 1.5% currently which is below the Ioer (2.1%).  Thus, the US FED has to cut its rates to make the Ioer less attractive to the banks in order to stimulate the economy.

Please read the post below to understand the 4 interest rates better.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/04/whats-happening-to-usd-now-why-is-it.html

The falling rates are signaling that the US FED is likely to cut rates again for it to stay relevant.  Furthermore, the US FED is being held hostage by Trump and wall street to cut rates now.  Therefore, the US Fed has no choice now, especially the PMI is weakening.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/ism-pmi-analysis-for-us-economy-in.html

If the US Fed dares to defy Trump and Wall Street, the stock markets will crash.  I don't see the US Fed having the guts or gumption to fight for its independence and risk crashing the stock markets by putting the rates on hold.

Penguin - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/26/19	phillip	Penguin	0.45	0.61	Buy	PER5x FY19 (ex-cash)
05/21/19	phillip	Penguin	0.44	0.61	Buy	PER5x FY19 (ex-cash)
05/27/19	CIMB	Penguin	0.445	0.72	Add	PB1x FY19
08/07/19	phillip	Penguin	0.495	0.61	Buy	PER5x FY19 (ex-cash)

Parkway Life - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/30/19	DBS Vickers	Parkway Life	2.8	3.1	Buy
03/18/19	UOB Kay Hian	Parkway Life	2.88	3.25	Buy	DDM
04/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	Parkway Life	2.92	3.25	Buy	DDM
05/02/19	UOB Kay Hian	Parkway Life	2.89	3.25	Buy
07/31/19	Lim & Tan	Parkway Life	3.06	0	Hold
08/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	Parkway Life	3.06	3.25	Buy
08/01/19	DBS Vickers	Parkway Life	3.06	3.35	Buy

Pacific Century - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/04/19	Lim & Tan	Pacific Century	0.385	0	Buy

Stock calls for 6 September 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
09/06/19	DBS Vickers	Capitaland	3.51	4	Buy
09/06/19	phillip	Clearbridge	0.142	0.26	Buy	DCF
09/06/19	DBS Vickers	CSE Global	0.47	0.65	Buy	PER12x FY20
09/06/19	DMG & Partners	DBS	24.63	25.3	Neutral	GGM, PB1.23x FY20
09/06/19	OCBC	Hutchison Port	0.22	0.17	Hold
09/06/19	DMG & Partners	Keppel Pacific	0.74	0.88	Buy	DDM

The US-China trade war is not subsiding.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/us-imposes-duties-on-structural-steel-from-china--mexico-11874126

The US has imposed duties on China's structural steel.

China has to recognize that the US cannot be trusted and will renege on its promises like a thug. 

There is no need to be a gentleman when it comes to dealing with the US because the US will not show any goodwill gesture prior to the October meeting.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/the-us-china-trade-talk-is-deferred-to.html

PACC Offshore - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/26/19	DBS Vickers	PACC Offshore	0.183	0.2	Hold	PB0.8x FY19
05/14/19	DBS Vickers	PACC Offshore	0.173	0.2	Hold	PB0.8x FY19

Oxley - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/02/19	DBS Vickers	Oxley	0.325	0.68	Buy
06/13/19	DMG & Partners	Oxley	0.31	0.41	Buy	RNAV (45% discount)

Overseas Education - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/23/19	UOB Kay Hian	Overseas Edu	0.33	0.46	Buy	EV/Ebitda10.4x
05/08/19	UOB Kay Hian	Overseas Edu	0.3	0.46	Buy	EV/Ebitda10.4x
05/08/19	Lim & Tan	Overseas Edu	0.3	0.48	Buy	DDM & DCF
08/19/19	UOB Kay Hian	Overseas Edu	0.285	0.46	Buy

Stock calls for 5 September 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
09/05/19	Lim & Tan	Capitaland	3.49	0	Accumulate
09/05/19	phillip	DBS	24.54	27.6	Accumulate
09/05/19	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	10.71	14.48	Buy	GGM
09/05/19	DMG & Partners	Silverlake	0.455	0.56	Buy	DCF
09/05/19	phillip	UOB	25.1	28.6	Accumulate

The HK protestors have rejected the HK CE's pacification.

Just as we expected, the HK protectors have rejected her compromise and pacification.

The HK protestors are paid to protest and they will not accept any favourable outcome even if the government relented.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/latest-hk-chief-executives-telecast.html

They claimed the relentment came too little and too late but they never thought that late was better than never.  Eventually, they will push themselves into a corner and regret this later.

The US-China trade talk is deferred to October 2019.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-u-hold-trade-talks-014856242.html

The US-China trade talk is deferred to October 2019 from September 2019.  Will the October meeting take place?  The US will impose another set of tariffs on 1 October and China will definitely retaliate against that.

The US has to end this trade war fast because its bleak economic numbers are showing up in the PMI now.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/ism-pmi-analysis-for-us-economy-in.html

The weakening PMI will cause the GDP number to dive and Trump has to stop the hemorrhage before he loses his election.

Latest HK Chief Executive's telecast.

Is she doing enough to end the HK protests?

No!  This is because she is not eradicating the root cause of the problems (protests).  This uprising of the Hongkongers is engineered by the US, UK and Taiwan.  She must uproot those paid lackeys to end the protests.  The protestors don't even understand what they're protesting.  Therefore, it is useless to pacify the protestors as they will keep shifting their goal poles.

Cathy Pacific is a high risk airliner! Fly at your own risk!

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/3025421/cathay-pacific-suspends-cabin-crew-two-flights-found

Cathy Pacific employees committed a terrorist act by depleting the oxygen bottles.

Cathy Pacific chairman has resigned after the terrorist act was committed by his employees.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/hong-kong-cathay-pacific-chairman-resigns-11872184

We had warned about a flight risk with Cathy Pacific previously in our post below.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/cathy-pacific-suspends-ticket-sales-at.html

China is right to scrutinize Cathy Pacific employees flying in and out of China airspace.

Hot news! Singapore general election is coming!

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/pm-lee-convenes-electoral-boundaries-review-committee-091256644.html

It looks like SG GE is coming in a few months time according to the historical record.

Why?

This is because the economy will be so bad next year that there will be more opposition voices.

OUE Lippo HC - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/11/19	Soochow SSD	OUE Lippo HC	0.066	0.088	Buy	Sum of parts

OUE Hospitality - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/19	CIMB	OUE Hospitality	0.67	0.85	Add	DDM
01/16/19	OCBC	OUE Hospitality	0.685	0.79	Buy
01/30/19	DBS Vickers	OUE Hospitality	0.695	0.85	Buy	DCF
01/31/19	OCBC	OUE Hospitality	0.725	0.82	Buy
03/18/19	DMG & Partners	OUE Hospitality	0.725	0.77	Buy
04/09/19	DMG & Partners	OUE Hospitality	0.735	0.76	Take Profit	Accept offer
04/09/19	DBS Vickers	OUE Hospitality	0.735	0.85	Buy
04/10/19	CIMB	OUE Hospitality	0.725	0.85	Add
05/03/19	CIMB	OUE Hospitality	0.72	0.85	Add
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	OUE Hospitality	0.68	0.76	Take Profit
07/04/19	DMG & Partners	OUE Hospitality	0.72	0.76	Take Profit

OUE Commercial - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/31/19	OCBC	OUE Commercial	0.49	0.5	Hold
01/31/19	DBS Vickers	OUE Commercial	0.49	0.6	Buy	DCF
02/04/19	CIMB	OUE Commercial	0.515	0.57	Hold
02/08/19	DBS Vickers	OUE Commercial	0.51	0.6	Buy
04/03/19	DBS Vickers	OUE Commercial	0.52	0.6	Buy
04/10/19	CIMB	OUE Commercial	0.51	0.57	Hold
05/10/19	CIMB	OUE Commercial	0.5	0.57	Hold