Stock calls for 12 September 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
09/12/19	DMG & Partners	APAC Realty	0.495	0.65	Buy
09/12/19	DMG & Partners	City Developments	9.9	9.2	Neutral
09/12/19	DBS Vickers	Sabana	0.455	0.48	Hold	DCF
09/12/19	DBS Vickers	Sembcorp Industries	2.21	3.2	Buy	Sum of parts (10% discount), PER16x FY19, PB0.8x FY19
09/12/19	Lim & Tan	Sembcorp Industries	2.21	0	Buy

Cathy Pacific to cut capacity because HK travel falls.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/1-cathay-pacific-cut-capacity-091425705.html

Cathy Pacific has only itself to blame for the predicament it is facing.

Cathy Pacific management supported its employees to be anti-government protestors.  This airliner has about 3,000 potential terrorists on its payrolls and this will create a flight risk for passengers.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/cathy-pacific-is-high-risk-airliner-fly.html

If Cathy Pacific doesn't eradicate this large group of potential terrorists by re-educating and re-retraining, the mainland passengers won't have the faith to take this airliner because the employees are emotionally disturbed.

Germany will enter into a recession this current quarter.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/german-institutes-see-recession-cut-092552134.html

We had anticipated in January 2019 that the EU would slip into a recession much faster than Asia and we followed up with the same issue again in March 2019.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/01/north-america-and-europe-will-slip-into.html

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/03/germany-will-enter-into-recession-in.html

The German Institute IFW has predicted that Germany will slide into a recession this current quarter which corroborates our conclusion.

SATS - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/04/19	UOB Kay Hian	SATS	4.59	5.6	Buy
01/11/19	OCBC	SATS	4.94	5.23	Hold	DCF
02/08/19	UOB Kay Hian	SATS	4.8	5.6	Buy
02/14/19	phillip	SATS	4.98	5.47	Accumulate	DCF, PER24.6x FY19
02/14/19	OCBC	SATS	4.98	5.23	Hold
02/14/19	CIMB	SATS	4.98	5.46	Add	PER20.3x
02/14/19	Lim & Tan	SATS	4.98	0	Hold
02/14/19	DBS Vickers	SATS	4.98	5.59	Buy	DCF & PER22x FY19
02/14/19	Kim Eng	SATS	4.98	5.8	Buy
02/15/19	Citi Research	SATS	5.08	6	Buy
03/26/19	UOB Kay Hian	SATS	5.06	5.6	Buy
04/15/19	Kim Eng	SATS	5.31	5.8	Buy
05/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	SATS	5.27	5.6	Buy
05/17/19	OCBC	SATS	5.22	5.35	Hold
05/21/19	phillip	SATS	5.08	5.47	Accumulate	DCF, PER24x FY19
05/21/19	UOB Kay Hian	SATS	5.08	5.05	Hold	Buy @ 4.60
05/21/19	DBS Vickers	SATS	5.08	5.44	Buy	DCF & PER22x FY20
06/03/19	UOB Kay Hian	SATS	5.07	5.05	Hold	Buy @ $4.70
06/06/19	DBS Vickers	SATS	5.04	5.44	Buy
06/12/19	Kim Eng	SATS	5.04	6.1	Buy	DCF
06/17/19	CIMB	SATS	5.14	5.4	Add	PER21.9x CY20
07/05/19	Kim Eng	SATS	5.36	6.1	Buy	DCF
07/15/19	UOB Kay Hian	SATS	5.37	5.05	Sell
07/19/19	UOB Kay Hian	SATS	5.32	4.8	Sell
07/19/19	DBS Vickers	SATS	5.32	5	Hold	DCF
07/19/19	CIMB	SATS	5.32	5.4	Hold	PER21.9x CY20
07/22/19	OCBC	SATS	5	5.28	Hold	FCFF
07/22/19	phillip	SATS	5	5.47	Accumulate
07/22/19	Lim & Tan	SATS	5	0	Hold

Sasseur - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/20/19	Kim Eng	Sasseur	0.74	0.9	Buy	DDM
02/20/19	DBS Vickers	Sasseur	0.74	0.97	Buy	DCF
04/03/19	CIMB	Sasseur	0.78	0.92	Add
06/25/19	Kim Eng	Sasseur	0.79	0.9	Buy
08/08/19	DBS Vickers	Sasseur	0.8	0.97	Buy	DCF
08/13/19	CIMB	Sasseur	0.805	0.94	Add	DDM

Sanli Environmental - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/06/19	Tayrona	Sanli Env	0.18	0.234	Overweight

Stock calls for 11 September 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
09/11/19	UOB Kay Hian	A-Reit	3.14	3.25	Hold	DDM
09/11/19	DMG & Partners	CDL Hospitality	1.63	1.79	Buy
09/11/19	Amfrasers	Frencken	0.675	0.81	outperform	PER10x FY20
09/11/19	DMG & Partners	Fu Yu	0.215	0.24	Buy
09/11/19	DMG & Partners	Manulife US Reit	0.915	0.98	Buy
09/11/19	Lim & Tan	Overseas Edu	0.29	0	Buy
09/11/19	DMG & Partners	Oxley	0.31	0.41	Buy
09/11/19	DMG & Partners	Sheng Siong	1.2	1.32	Buy
09/11/19	DMG & Partners	ST Engineering	3.9	4.7	Buy
09/11/19	DMG & Partners	Suntec Reit	1.94	2.08	Buy
09/11/19	DMG & Partners	UOB	25.77	29.5	Buy
09/11/19	Macquarie	Venture	15.33	17.7	Outperform	Roe-g/Coe-g,PER14x FY19
09/11/19	DMG & Partners	Wilmar	3.8	4.5	Buy

Roxy-Pacific - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/17/19	DBS Vickers	Roxy-Pacific	0.405	0.39	Hold
02/25/19	OCBC	Roxy-Pacific	0.415	0.41	Hold
04/17/19	OCBC	Roxy-Pacific	0.4	0.41	Hold
05/09/19	OCBC	Roxy-Pacific	0.405	0.41	Hold
05/10/19	DBS Vickers	Roxy-Pacific	0.405	0.39	Hold	RNAV (55% discount)
07/15/19	OCBC	Roxy-Pacific	0.385	0.41	Hold
08/05/19	DBS Vickers	Roxy-Pacific	0.39	0.39	Hold	RNAV (55% discount)

Riverstone - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/27/19	CIMB	Riverstone	1.1	1.22	Add	PER16.7x FY20
02/27/19	DBS Vickers	Riverstone	1.1	1.19	Hold	PER16x FY19
05/14/19	CIMB	Riverstone	0.995	1.22	Add	PER16.5x FY20
05/16/19	DBS Vickers	Riverstone	0.975	1.03	Hold	PER16.8x FY19/20
08/13/19	DBS Vickers	Riverstone	0.9	1.16	Buy	PER14.5x FY20

Raffles Medical - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/23/19	phillip	Raffles Medical	1.11	1.16	Accumulate
02/20/19	UOB Kay Hian	Raffles Medical	1.12	1.3	Buy	DCF
02/26/19	DMG & Partners	Raffles Medical	1.12	1.02	Neutral	DCF
02/26/19	OCBC	Raffles Medical	1.12	1.25	Buy
02/26/19	DBS Vickers	Raffles Medical	1.12	1.12	Hold	Sum of parts, PER27x FY18/19
02/26/19	phillip	Raffles Medical	1.12	1.09	Neutral	DCF
04/30/19	DMG & Partners	Raffles Medical	1.07	1.02	Neutral
05/02/19	phillip	Raffles Medical	1.08	1.09	Neutral	DCF
05/02/19	DBS Vickers	Raffles Medical	1.08	1.12	Hold	Sum of parts
05/14/19	Kim Eng	Raffles Medical	1.02	1.13	Hold	DCF
06/12/19	CIMB	Raffles Medical	1.02	1.1	Hold
07/30/19	UOB Kay Hian	Raffles Medical	1.03	1.27	Buy	DCF
07/30/19	DMG & Partners	Raffles Medical	1.03	1.02	Neutral
07/30/19	DBS Vickers	Raffles Medical	1.03	1.12	Hold	Sum of parts
07/31/19	phillip	Raffles Medical	1.04	1.09	Neutral	DCF

Stock calls for 10 September 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
09/10/19	DMG & Partners	Avi-Tech	0.31	0.31	Neutral	DCF
09/10/19	Amfrasers	CSE Global	0.46	0.64	Outperform	Sum of parts, PER12x, PB2x
09/10/19	Lim & Tan	SPH	1.99	0	Hold
09/10/19	DBS Vickers	UOL	7.47	8.53	Buy	RNAV (35% discount)
09/10/19	UOB Kay Hian	Yangzijiang	0.98	1.46	Buy	PB0.84x

Q & M - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/23/19	phillip	Q & M	0.495	0.513	Neutral

Propnex - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/27/19	UOB Kay Hian	Propnex	0.565	0.66	Buy
04/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	Propnex	0.595	0.66	Buy
05/16/19	UOB Kay Hian	Propnex	0.505	0.6	Buy	DCF, PER10x FY19
06/03/19	phillip	Propnex	0.5	0.63	Buy	DCF
06/07/19	CIMB	Propnex	0.49	0.64	Add
08/16/19	UOB Kay Hian	Propnex	0.505	0.5	Hold
08/19/19	phillip	Propnex	0.5	0.59	Buy	DCF

Perennial Reit - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/14/19	DBS Vickers	Perennial Reit	0.645	0.83	Buy	RNAV (55% discount)
04/24/19	DBS Vickers	Perennial Reit	0.65	0.83	Buy	RNAV (55% discount)
05/13/19	DBS Vickers	Perennial Reit	0.64	0.83	Buy	RNAV (55% discount)

Stock calls for 9 September 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
09/09/19	CIMB	CSE Global	0.465	0.68	Add
09/09/19	Kim Eng	IHH Healthcare	1.85	2.1	Hold	Sum of parts, Ringgit $6.30 target price
09/09/19	DBS Vickers	Keppel Pacific	0.75	0.9	Buy
09/09/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree Commercial	2.24	2.4	Buy	DCF
09/09/19	CIMB	Sembcorp Marine	1.19	1.26	Hold	PB1.2x CY19
09/09/19	Kim Eng	Venture	15.48	18.88	Buy	Roe-g/Coe-g, PB2.2x FY19

The HK protestors have revealed their true aim of their protests.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/hong-kong-protesters-plan-march-022648940.html

The true aim of the protests is to break away from China and gain independence but HK has always been part of China.

Who are the organizers of these protests?

1. HK institute of human resource management
2. HK confederation of trade unions
3. HK journalists association
4. Civic party
5. Labour party
6. Democratic party

What do these organizers have in common?

They all received fundings from NED.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/07/the-truth-behind-hk-protests.html

Why is making an interest rate policy a difficult task in China?

China has different provinces with different economic growth and each province has different tiered cities (tier 1, tier 2 & tier 3) which have different property prices.

2018 GDP numbers in China provinces:

China was growing at 6.6% in 2018 but its provinces were growing at different rates.  Tianjin was growing at 3.6% (below the country 6.6%) while Guizhou and Tibet were growing at 9.1% (above the country 6.6%).  Each province has its own tiered cities with different property prices.

When China cuts/raises its interest rates, the rates will have to be applied across the board and each province will be impacted differently.  For example, if China cut its interest rates, Tianjin's GDP growth (3.6%) might grow closer to the national rate (6.6%) which was good for Tianjian but Guizhou's GDP growth (9.1%) might be inflated to the extent that it became an overheating economy which was bad for Guizhou.  The interest rate changes would also impact the property prices in the different tiered cities in each province.

Therefore, the Chinese government has to assess the interest rates' impacts in each province first before making any change to the current interest rates.  The assessments will take time since every mayor has to report the impacts back to the central government for better decision making.

The SG government is glad that it is not facing such a difficult task.  Can you imagine SG has different GDP growth in each town?  What if Ang Mo Kio had a 9.1% growth while Chua Chu Kang had a 3.6% growth and each town had its own tiered cities?  Would the SG government be able to implement the property measures so easily?

When will China reduce its interest rates?

When the US and the rest of the world are in a rate-cutting frenzy, China cannot alienate itself and hold its rates perpetually.  Thus, it is a question of when will China do it instead.

In order for our readers to understand this better, it is best that the readers read and understand the rationale and logic of China not reducing its interest rates at this moment.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/06/china-has-started-to-sell-us-treasuries.html

What had  China done insofar to stimulate its economy after the US cut the FED rates?

China had implemented the new LPR and reduced the RRR.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/08/why-is-renminbi-rmb-depreciating-again.html

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/china-has-just-cut-banks-rrr-by-50bp.html

Please read our post on RRR to understand its impact.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/how-china-rrr-cut-will-impact-its.html

China does not have runaway inflation, so China can afford to cut its interest rates.  However, China is not doing it now. Why?

If you think that China doesn't cut its interest rates because of its simmering inflation, then I must say that you are wrong because you do not understand China's economic structure well enough.

The properties constitute a large part of the people's assets and the property sector is the Achilles heel of China.  Therefore, any disruption to the property sector will disrupt the economy severely.

As we can see, China has been trying to avoid any disruption to the property sector by implementing LPR and reducing RRR instead of cutting its interest rates because these 2 policies have minimal impacts on the property sector.

China will only cut its interest rates after it has figured out how to rein in the property prices with new property policies and measures because cutting the interest rates will create a buying frenzy to inflate the property prices.  A skyrocketing property market will create social unrest and China is trying to maintain stability in the country.

Baltic dry index - 2462

Today, Friday, September 06 2019, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 37 points, reaching 2462 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

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Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 898

Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.