Stock calls for 31 October 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
10/31/19	UOB Kay Hian	ART	1.4	1.66	Buy	DDM
10/31/19	DMG & Partners	CDL Hospitality	1.63	1.78	Buy	DDM
10/31/19	Kim Eng	CDL Hospitality	1.63	1.8	Buy	DDM
10/31/19	UOB Kay Hian	CDL Hospitality	1.63	2.05	Buy
10/31/19	CIMB	CSE Global	0.525	0.68	Buy
10/31/19	DBS Vickers	Delfi	0.995	1.49	Buy	PER23.7x FY20
10/31/19	UOB Kay Hian	Far East Hospitality	0.71	0.86	Buy
10/31/19	DBS Vickers	Far East Hospitality	0.71	0.8	Buy
10/31/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Hospitality Trust	0.735	0.78	Hold
10/31/19	OCBC	Mapletree North Asia	1.27	1.43	Buy
10/31/19	Lim & Tan	Parkway Life	3.24	0	Hold
10/31/19	DBS Vickers	Singapore Post	0.96	0.96	Hold

APEC summit is cancelled!

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/chiles-apec-cancellation-raises-hurdle-002610187.html

The APEC summit in Chile is cancelled because of its ongoing violent protests.

Shall we support the Chilean protests? Fight for freedom in Chile! Fight for democracy in Chile! Hahaha!

The US GDP growth declined to 1.9%.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/us-economy-grows-modest-1-123602190.html

The US GDP growth slowed to 1.9% but this would still be an optimistic number in the face of the consecutive declines in its PMI.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/10/ism-pmi-declined-to-478-in-september.html

We don't want to accuse the US of fudging its GDP number but the declining PMI numbers are showing a more dire strait situation.

Anyway, let's put this aside and look at another thing that most media omit.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/07/the-us-china-trade-war-impacts-on-both_27.html

China GDP growth - 3rd Qtr: 6%
US GDP growth - 3rd Qtr: 1.9%

China has grown its GDP by US$0.82T (6% of GDP US$13.6T) this quarter but the US is only growing at US$0.39T (1.9% of GDP US$20.5T).  In other words, China is growing at twice the US growth rate in absolute terms.

The FED has cut rates as we had predicted.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wrapup-4-u-fed-cuts-180003179.html

The US FED has cut rates to 1.5-1.75% and will remain on hold for now.  This means there won't be any further cut anymore in 2019.

We had anticipated such a rate cut in our previous post with our own analysis.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/10/the-us-fed-will-cut-rates-again-in.html

The UK has started to withdraw its support for the Hong Kong protest.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/10/the-hong-kong-protestors-have-just.html

As stated in our previous post, the HK protestors will start to lose the western support.

The UK knows that it cannot support the HK protests anymore because it has its own Brexit protest now.  Although the Brexit protest is still peaceful, it may escalate into a violent protest in the future and the UK police will have some difficulty to do a violent crackdown on its own violent protest if the UK government keeps supporting the violent protests in HK.  The UK also doesn't want the HK protestors to support the Brexit protest after they showed support for the Catalan protestors.

The US will also withdraw its support for the HK protestors if the US has a protest.  There may be an impeachment protest in the US since Nancy Pelosi is putting her political life at stake by spearheading the President's impeachment.

There are few protests going on in the west now.

Chile
Spain (Catalan)
UK (Brexit)
France (Yellow vest)

Frasers Centrepoint Trust - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/17/19	Kim Eng	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.27	2.55	Buy	DDM
01/22/19	Lim & Tan	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.26	0	Hold
01/22/19	OCBC	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.26	2.5	Buy
01/23/19	Phillip	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.27	2.21	Neutral	DDM, PB1.09x FY19
01/23/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.27	2.4	Buy
01/28/19	UOB Kay Hian	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.29	2.32	Buy
01/28/19	CIMB	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.29	2.35	Add	DDM
02/15/19	Phillip	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.24	2.21	Neutral
02/28/19	Kim Eng	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.3	2.55	Buy
03/01/19	OCBC	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.29	2.5	Buy
03/01/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.29	2.4	Buy	DCF
03/14/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.26	2.6	Buy
03/18/19	DMG & Partners	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.28	2.19	Neutral
04/03/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.38	2.6	Buy
04/04/19	Kim Eng	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.36	2.6	Buy
04/24/19	Lim & Tan	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.36	0	Buy
04/25/19	DMG & Partners	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.36	2.19	Neutral	DDM
04/25/19	OCBC	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.36	2.61	Buy	DDM
04/26/19	Phillip	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.37	2.31	Neutral	DDM
05/17/19	OCBC	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.45	2.61	Buy
05/17/19	DMG & Partners	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.45	2.25	Neutral
05/17/19	CIMB	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.45	2.55	Add	DDM
05/21/19	Kim Eng	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.4	2.6	Buy
05/23/19	UOB Kay Hian	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.41	2.71	Buy
05/24/19	Phillip	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.44	2.36	Neutral	DDM
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.52	2.25	Neutral
06/10/19	UOB Kay Hian	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.52	2.71	Buy
06/19/19	Phillip	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.61	2.36	Neutral
06/21/19	UOB Kay Hian	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.55	2.72	Buy
06/24/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.54	2.85	Buy
06/24/19	Amfrasers	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.54	2.33	Neutral	DDM
06/25/19	Kim Eng	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.59	2.6	Buy
07/04/19	DMG & Partners	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.64	2.25	Neutral
07/12/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.64	2.95	Buy
07/16/19	UOB Kay Hian	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.62	2.72	Buy
07/22/19	Phillip	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.65	2.36	Neutral
07/24/19	UOB Kay Hian	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.65	2.66	Hold	DDM, Buy @ $2.42
07/24/19	Kim Eng	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.65	2.8	Buy	DDM
07/24/19	OCBC	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.65	2.69	Hold
07/24/19	CIMB	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.65	2.79	Add	DDM
07/24/19	Lim & Tan	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.65	0	Hold
07/26/19	Amfrasers	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.63	2.51	Neutral
07/29/19	Phillip	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.68	2.77	Accumulate	DDM
08/22/19	CIMB	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.68	2.79	Add
08/26/19	Phillip	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.68	2.77	Accumulate
08/30/19	CIMB	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.74	2.9	Add	DDM
08/30/19	DMG & Partners	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.74	2.55	Neutral	DDM
09/19/19	Kim Eng	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.7	2.8	Buy
09/24/19	Phillip	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.71	2.77	Accumulate
10/02/19	DBS Vickers	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.7	2.95	Buy
10/18/19	Phillip	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.77	2.77	Accumulate
10/24/19	DMG & Partners	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.72	2.55	Neutral	DDM
10/24/19	OCBC	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.72	2.75	Hold
10/24/19	UOB Kay Hian	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.72	3.05	Buy
10/24/19	Lim & Tan	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.72	0	Hold
10/25/19	Phillip	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.75	3.11	Accumulate	DDM

Fortune Reit - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/25/19	DBS Vickers	Fortune Reit	9.8	10.68	Buy
01/29/19	DBS Vickers	Fortune Reit	9.7	10.76	Buy
03/06/19	DBS Vickers	Fortune Reit	9.8	10.76	Buy
06/21/19	DBS Vickers	Fortune Reit	10.66	11.8	Buy	DDM

Food Empire - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/04/19	DMG & Partners	Food Empire	0.58	0.69	Buy
04/05/19	DMG & Partners	Food Empire	0.56	0.69	Buy
08/13/19	DMG & Partners	Food Empire	0.525	0.73	Buy	PER13x FY19

Stock calls for 30 October 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
10/30/19	OCBC	Cache Logistics	0.72	0.72	Hold
10/30/19	Lim & Tan	Far East Hospitality	0.7	0	Hold
10/30/19	OCBC	Hutchison Port	0.158	0.155	Hold
10/30/19	DBS Vickers	Mapletree North Asia	1.27	1.6	Buy	DCF
10/30/19	DMG & Partners	Raffles Medical	1	1.02	Neutral	DCF
10/30/19	CIMB	Raffles Medical	1	1.16	Add	Sum of parts
10/30/19	UOB Kay Hian	Raffles Medical	1	1.27	Buy	DCF
10/30/19	DBS Vickers	Raffles Medical	1	1.12	Hold
10/30/19	UOB Kay Hian	Sasseur	0.8	0.97	Buy	DDM

When the US says it is deploying its troops to protect the oil field, you cannot trust the US government.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/russia-releases-damning-evidence-u-173000250.html

The US is caught red-handed by Russia for plundering Syrian oil under the guise of safeguarding the oil field.

Why am I not surprised?  If you truly understand the Americans, you will know that the US cannot be trusted.

Food Empire - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/04/19	DMG & Partners	Food Empire	0.58	0.69	Buy
04/05/19	DMG & Partners	Food Empire	0.56	0.69	Buy
08/13/19	DMG & Partners	Food Empire	0.525	0.73	Buy	PER13x FY19

First Sponsor - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/22/19	DBS Vickers	First Sponsor	1.27	1.62	Buy	RNAV (35% discount)
07/26/19	DBS Vickers	First Sponsor	1.31	1.62	Buy	RNAV (35% discount)

First Resources - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/03/19	UOB Kay Hian	First Resources	1.56	1.6	Hold
02/20/19	UOB Kay Hian	First Resources	1.72	1.85	Hold	PER13x FY19, Buy @ $1.65
02/21/19	Kim Eng	First Resources	1.69	2.1	Buy
03/01/19	Kim Eng	First Resources	1.71	2.03	Buy	PER17x
03/04/19	DMG & Partners	First Resources	1.72	1.6	Neutral	PER13x FY19
03/04/19	DBS Vickers	First Resources	1.72	1.97	Buy	DCF
03/05/19	CIMB	First Resources	1.7	2.12	Add
03/12/19	UOB Kay Hian	First Resources	1.69	1.85	Hold	Buy @ $1.65
04/09/19	CIMB	First Resources	1.79	2.12	Add
04/22/19	UOB Kay Hian	First Resources	1.85	1.85	Hold
05/06/19	Kim Eng	First Resources	1.82	2.03	Buy	PER17x FY19
05/09/19	UOB Kay Hian	First Resources	1.79	1.85	Hold	PER13x FY19, Buy @ $1.65
05/16/19	DMG & Partners	First Resources	1.7	1.53	Neutral	PER13x FY20
05/16/19	Kim Eng	First Resources	1.7	1.93	Buy	PER17x
05/16/19	DBS Vickers	First Resources	1.7	1.95	Buy	DCF, PER16.5x FY19
05/16/19	UOB Kay Hian	First Resources	1.7	1.7	Hold	Buy @ $1.50
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	First Resources	1.56	1.53	Neutral
07/02/19	Kim Eng	First Resources	1.6	1.93	Buy
07/16/19	DBS Vickers	First Resources	1.55	1.82	Buy	DCF
08/06/19	UOB Kay Hian	First Resources	1.53	1.6	Hold	Buy @ $1.45
08/15/19	Kim Eng	First Resources	1.57	1.8	Buy
08/15/19	DMG & Partners	First Resources	1.57	1.45	Neutral	PER14x FY20
08/15/19	CIMB	First Resources	1.57	1.76	Add
08/21/19	UOB Kay Hian	First Resources	1.5	1.6	Hold	Buy @ $1.45
09/30/19	DMG & Partners	First Resources	1.6	1.9	Buy	PER18x FY20

Stock calls for 29 October 2019

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
10/29/19	DBS Vickers	CapitaRetail China	1.55	1.8	Buy
10/29/19	UOB Kay Hian	DBS	25.18	29.75	Buy
10/29/19	Amfrasers	Eagle Hospitality Trust	0.545	0.72	outperform	DDM
10/29/19	DMG & Partners	ESR-Reit	0.53	0.6	Buy	DDM
10/29/19	Lim & Tan	Mapletree North Asia	1.26	0	Hold
10/29/19	UOB Kay Hian	Oxley	0.34	0.5	Buy	RNAV (30% discount)
10/29/19	Kim Eng	Venture	15.29	18.85	Buy	PB2.1x FY20

omg! Ang Mo Kio Block 4xx unit was ablaze this morning.

AMK again!

The US Fed will cut rates again in October 2019.

How did we reach our conclusion?  Please read our previous analysis to understand our methodology.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/09/will-us-fed-reduce-its-interest-rates.html

Our analysis:

Iorr: 1.8% (falling), Max is 2% as set by the US FED.

Effr: 1.85% (falling)

Ioer: 1.8% (falling)

On RRP: 1.7% (falling), Min is 1.75% as set by the US FED.

The official US interest rates set by the FED range from 1.75% to 2% currently.

Effr: 1.85%
Ioer: 1.8%

The Effr-Ioer spread is widening compared to the previous spread in September which denotes a monetary tightening condition.

The On RRR (1.7%) has breached the minimum rate (1.75%) set by the US FED which is signalling some financial stress in the monetary system.  This breach is caused by FED's intervention in the repo market.  Any of the 4 rates must not trade outside of the range set by the US FED (1.75%-2%).

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/10/the-us-fed-will-start-to-purchase-60b-t.html

Therefore, we can conclude that the US FED will cut interest rates again in October 2019 to keep itself relevant since it cannot keep the rates within the set range.

Baltic dry index - 1801

Today, Friday, October 25 2019, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 16 points, reaching 1801 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

========================

Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 830

Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

First Reit - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/16/19	phillip	First Reit	1.04	0.88	Neutral	DDM
01/17/19	Lim & Tan	First Reit	1.03	0	Neutral
01/18/19	OCBC	First Reit	1.01	0.97	Hold
01/18/19	CIMB	First Reit	1.01	1.2	Add	DDM
02/11/19	OCBC	First Reit	1.14	0.97	Sell
04/11/19	CIMB	First Reit	0.99	1.2	Add	DDM
08/13/19	CIMB	First Reit	1.06	1.23	Add

Far East Hospitality - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/02/19	CIMB	Far East Hospitality	0.605	0.68	Add
01/16/19	OCBC	Far East Hospitality	0.625	0.675	Buy
02/07/19	OCBC	Far East Hospitality	0.66	0.675	Buy
02/13/19	Lim & Tan	Far East Hospitality	0.64	0	Buy
02/14/19	DBS Vickers	Far East Hospitality	0.635	0.7	Buy	DCF
02/14/19	CIMB	Far East Hospitality	0.635	0.68	Add	DDM
02/14/19	Kim Eng	Far East Hospitality	0.635	0.75	Buy	DDM
02/14/19	OCBC	Far East Hospitality	0.635	0.68	Buy
04/15/19	OCBC	Far East Hospitality	0.685	0.68	Hold
04/26/19	OCBC	Far East Hospitality	0.66	0.67	Hold
04/26/19	DBS Vickers	Far East Hospitality	0.66	0.7	Buy
04/29/19	CIMB	Far East Hospitality	0.665	0.71	Add
04/29/19	Kim Eng	Far East Hospitality	0.665	0.8	Buy
06/12/19	OCBC	Far East Hospitality	0.645	0.67	Hold
06/25/19	Kim Eng	Far East Hospitality	0.675	0.8	Buy
07/22/19	UOB Kay Hian	Far East Hospitality	0.685	0.82	Buy	DDM
07/31/19	OCBC	Far East Hospitality	0.685	0.67	Hold
07/31/19	CIMB	Far East Hospitality	0.685	0.68	Hold
08/01/19	DBS Vickers	Far East Hospitality	0.68	0.7	Hold	DCF
08/27/19	UOB Kay Hian	Far East Hospitality	0.65	0.82	Buy
09/19/19	Kim Eng	Far East Hospitality	0.675	0.8	Buy
10/09/19	DBS Vickers	Far East Hospitality	0.69	0.7	Hold