Stock calls for 7 February 2020

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/07/20	OCBC	A-Reit	3.3	3.59	Buy
02/07/20	DBS Vickers	Ascendas India Trust	1.65	1.85	Buy
02/07/20	UOB Kay Hian	DBS	25.7	28.65	Buy
02/07/20	DMG & Partners	Delfi	0.96	1.68	Buy	DCF
02/07/20	DBS Vickers	Jumbo	0.335	0.38	Buy	PER23x FY20
02/07/20	CIMB	Manulife US Reit	1.07	1.13	Add	DDM
02/07/20	Kim Eng	Manulife US Reit	1.07	1.15	Buy	DDM
02/07/20	DBS Vickers	Sembcorp Industries	2.16	2.2	Hold
02/07/20	Citi Research	Sembcorp Industries	2.16	2.8	Buy
02/07/20	OCBC	Sembcorp Industries	2.16	2.13	Hold
02/07/20	UOB Kay Hian	Sembcorp Industries	2.16	2.17	Hold	Buy @ $2.05
02/07/20	Lim & Tan	Sembcorp Industries	2.16	0	Hold
02/07/20	DMG & Partners	Sembcorp Industries	2.16	2.68	Buy	Sum of parts, PER10x FY20

Singapore has exported coronavirus to the UK.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/third-uk-coronavirus-patient-quarantine-214100995.html

Singapore is famous for the wrong reason again.  SG has exported coronavirus to the UK.

It looks like SG is fast becoming a transmission hub because SG has exported coronavirus to Malaysia, South Korea, and the UK.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/02/the-regional-countries-are-starting-to.html

The US is digging its own grave!

https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-administration-denying-more-tariff-exemption-requests-11580736641

There is no doubt that China cannot fulfill its obligations under the Phase 1 deal.

The US is having a myopic view by not extending tariff exemption to US firms procuring China products.  Why?

This denial will cause US prices to go up and create inflation when the economy is not doing well.  Stagflation is a very difficult issue to resolve.  The US is digging its own grave because it wants to reduce China's imports deliberately.  The US firms have no choice but to increase prices or shift out for their own survival.

MIT: Recession is coming!

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/05/70percent-chance-of-recession-in-next-six-months-study-from-mit-and-state-street-finds.html

Why are we not surprised that a recession will be coming?

We've stated back in 2019 that March 2020 would be the end of a good period.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/12/the-recession-constellation-are.html

China has acknowledged that it cannot fulfill the US-China phase 1 deal.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/china-likely-considering-disaster-clause-060457370.html

Just as we projected in April 2019, China is unable to fulfill the US-China phase 1 deal now.  Even without the virus outbreak, China also couldn't fulfill the deal because the set targets were unrealistic.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/01/many-analysts-are-casting-doubts-on.html

Therefore, US exports to China won't increase significantly for the next few months.  It will be a blessing for the US if China doesn't reduce US imports due to poor local consumption.

Ho Bee - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/26/19	Lim & Tan	Ho Bee	2.51	0	Buy
03/28/19	UOB Kay Hian	Ho Bee	2.5	2.79	Buy	RNAV (30% discount)
04/01/19	Lim & Tan	Ho Bee	2.52	0	Buy
06/28/19	UOB Kay Hian	Ho Bee	2.38	2.79	Buy
11/19/19	Lim & Tan	Ho Bee	2.34	0	Buy

HMI - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/23/19	phillip	HMI	0.540	0.77	Buy
02/13/19	UOB Kay Hian	HMI	0.535	0.73	Buy	DCF
02/14/19	phillip	HMI	0.550	0.77	Buy	DCF
05/14/19	Kim Eng	HMI	0.540	0.68	Buy	DCF, PER27x FY20
05/15/19	phillip	HMI	0.530	0.73	Buy	DCF
05/15/19	CIMB	HMI	0.530	0.68	Add	DCF
05/15/19	UOB Kay Hian	HMI	0.530	0.73	Buy	DCF
05/16/19	Kim Eng	HMI	0.545	0.66	Buy	DCF
06/18/19	UOB Kay Hian	HMI	0.635	0.73	Buy	DCF
07/08/19	UOB Kay Hian	HMI	0.660	0.73	Accept offer	offer at $0.73
07/08/19	Kim Eng	HMI	0.660	0.66	Hold	DCF, accept offer at $0.73
07/08/19	CIMB	HMI	0.660	0.68	Add	offer at $0.73
07/09/19	phillip	HMI	0.720	0.73	Accept offer	offer at $0.73
08/20/19	Lim & Tan	HMI	0.720	0.73	Accept offer	offer at $0.73
08/21/19	Kim Eng	HMI	0.720	0.73	Hold	offer at $0.73

Hi-P - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/08/19	Kim Eng	Hi-P	0.965	0.68	Sell	PB0.8x
02/22/19	DBS Vickers	Hi-P	1.05	1.12	Hold	PER10x FY19
02/25/19	Kim Eng	Hi-P	1.14	1.22	Hold	PB1.5x
03/13/19	Lim & Tan	Hi-P	1.75	0	Avoid	overvalued
04/09/19	Kim Eng	Hi-P	1.63	1.22	Sell	PB1.5x FY19
05/06/19	DBS Vickers	Hi-P	1.44	1.41	Hold	PER12x FY19
05/06/19	Kim Eng	Hi-P	1.44	1.22	Sell	PB1.5x FY19
06/11/19	Kim Eng	Hi-P	1.29	1.22	Hold	PB1.5x FY19
07/19/19	DBS Vickers	Hi-P	1.43	1.41	Hold	PER12x FY19
08/05/19	DBS Vickers	Hi-P	1.34	1.32	Hold	PER12x FY20
10/10/19	Kim Eng	Hi-P	1.19	1.21	Hold	PB1.5x FY19
11/01/19	DBS Vickers	Hi-P	1.44	1.39	Hold
11/01/19	Kim Eng	Hi-P	1.44	1.34	Sell	PB1.5x FY20

Stock calls for 6 February 2020

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/06/20	Tayrona	Clearbridge	0.139	0.41	Overweight
02/06/20	DBS Vickers	Comfortdelgro	2.14	2.45	Buy	DCF, PER18.1x FY20
02/06/20	UOB Kay Hian	First Resources	1.78	2.1	Buy
02/06/20	DMG & Partners	Manulife US Reit	1.04	1.12	Buy	DDM
02/06/20	DBS Vickers	Manulife US Reit	1.04	1.15	Buy	DCF
02/06/20	Lim & Tan	Manulife US Reit	1.04	0	Hold
02/06/20	CIMB	SATS	4.46	4.07	Reduce
02/06/20	CIMB	SIA	8.59	8.46	Hold

Total reported coronavirus cases in China.

The official figures from the Central Government might have underdeclared the true situation in China.  Let's just take these with a heavy pinch of salt.

Haw Par - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/28/19	Lim & Tan	Haw Par	12.39	0	Buy

GSS Energy - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/07/19	DMG & Partners	GSS Energy	0.097	0.19	Buy
03/04/19	DMG & Partners	GSS Energy	0.112	0.17	Buy	DCF
05/14/19	DMG & Partners	GSS Energy	0.081	0.08	Neutral	DCF
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	GSS Energy	0.069	0.08	Neutral
08/20/19	DMG & Partners	GSS Energy	0.074	0.08	Neutral	DCF
10/08/19	DMG & Partners	GSS Energy	0.066	0.08	Neutral	DCF

Grand Venture - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/04/19	CIMB	Grand Venture	0.25	0.34	Add	PER10x FY20
08/19/19	CIMB	Grand Venture	0.22	0.22	Hold

Stock calls for 5 February 2020

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
02/05/20	Phillip	ART	1.24	1.53	Buy	DDM
02/05/20	Lim & Tan	CSE Global	0.51	0.68	Buy
02/05/20	UOB Kay Hian	Food Empire	0.66	0.89	Buy

The real situation in Wuhan.

https://nypost.com/2020/01/24/coronavirus-outbreak-video-shows-dead-bodies-in-halls-of-china-hospital/

There is speculation that the true situation in China is 10x more than the official numbers.

The cremation facilities in Wuhan are working 24/7 now to burn the corpses and this has been on-going for the past few days.

 If the death toll is only 490, the cremation facilities will not need to operate 24/7 for the past few days to burn the corpses.  Many corpses are piling up at the cremation facilities now.

China has acknowledged that the coronavirus has mutated.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/04/researchers-say-the-coronavirus-may-be-more-contagious-than-current-data-shows.html

OMG!  This virus will spread faster and infect more people because it is more potent now.

The regional countries are starting to blame Singapore for spreading the coronavirus.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/singapore-business-meeting-linked-malaysian-054110183.html

The regional countries are starting to blame Singapore for being a transmission hub now because SG has exported coronavirus to Malaysia and South Korea.

Look like SG is being famous for the wrong reason now.

Becareful! The stock markets are being artificially supported now!

The stock markets are artificially inflated now.  Why?

Many listed companies will suffer from declining revenues due to the coronavirus outbreak because of reduced human activities.  However, these stock prices stay elevated artificially.

When the numbers of infectious cases and death tolls keep rising, the stock markets also keep rising.  Does this make any sense at all?  This makes no sense at all because the virus outbreak has not reached its peak and there is no sign of the outbreak abating.  This is especially true when China is not providing a true figure about its infectious cases and fatality rates.

https://meaww.com/china-wuhan-coronavirus-lying-official-figure-sending-bodies-victims-cremation-eyewash-deaths

US suspended flights to Hong Kong due to local transmission.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/transport/major-us-airlines-add-hong-kong-to-china-flight-suspensions

Singapore also has 4 local transmission cases and 24 infected cases that surpass HK's.

Is the US going to suspend flights to SG because SG is also an air hub too?

Hangzhou is in lockdown now!

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/hangzhou-and-taizhou-cities-far-from-virus-epicentre-implement-12388714

The virus outbreak is spreading in China as more cities are in lockdown.  Hangzhou is just about 100++km away from Shanghai.

Community transmission is already happening in China!