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Monday, February 10, 2020

Hotel Properties - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
02/27/19Lim & TanHotel Properties3.760Hold
04/17/19OCBCHotel Properties3.884.74Buy
07/15/19OCBCHotel Properties3.694.74Buy

Hongkong Land - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
01/17/19DBS VickersHongkong Land6.927.86Buy
01/17/19CitibankHongkong Land6.925.9Sell
03/01/19DBS VickersHongkong Land6.778.02BuyRNAV (40% discount)
03/01/19CitibankHongkong Land6.776.45Sell
05/10/19DBS VickersHongkong Land6.978.02BuyRNAV (40% discount)
08/02/19DBS VickersHongkong Land6.097.93Buy
08/05/19DBS VickersHongkong Land6.027.7BuyRNAV (40% discount)
08/06/19CIMBHongkong Land5.747.4Add
08/06/19CitibankHongkong Land5.745.85Sell
12/12/19DBS VickersHongkong Land5.476.64BuyRNAV (45% discount)

Stock calls for 10 February 2020

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
02/10/20OCBCCapitaRetail China1.521.57Hold
02/10/20DBS VickersCapitaRetail China1.521.8Buy
02/10/20OCBCFrasers Logistics1.271.37Hold
02/10/20DBS VickersGenting0.861.2Buy
02/10/20DBS VickersNetlink1.011.04Buy
02/10/20UOB Kay HianOCBC10.8612.8Buy
02/10/20DBS VickersSIA8.5810.4Buy
02/10/20Lim & TanSIA Engineering2.610Hold
02/10/20UOB Kay HianSingapore Post0.890.99HoldSum of parts
02/10/20DBS VickersSingapore Post0.890.85HoldPER17x FY21
02/10/20OCBCSingapore Post0.890.96Hold
02/10/20DBS VickersSingtel3.323.8Buy
02/10/20UOB Kay HianSingtel3.323.32HoldDCF

Red alert - China has another bird flu outbreak in Sichuan after Hunan.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/energy-commodities/china-reports-first-h5n6-bird-flu-in-sichuan-poultry-farm-ministry

China has another variant of the bird flu (H5N6) outbreak in Sichuan after Hunan's (H5N1).

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/02/red-alert-h5n1-bird-flu-outbreak-in.html

omg! Travellers are shunning Singapore!

https://www.straitstimes.com/world/middle-east/coronavirus-qatar-kuwait-advise-citizens-to-avoid-travel-to-singapore

https://www.asiaone.com/asia/coronavirus-not-just-china-travellers-also-avoiding-singapore-and-japan

The middle east countries have issued a travel alert to Singapore and many travellers are shunning Singapore because Singapore is one of the top 3 infected countries.  This will definitely impact the tourism and hospitality sectors.


Saturday, February 8, 2020

Guangzhou and Shenzhen are in lockdown now.

https://www.dimsumdaily.hk/following-guangzhou-housing-estates-in-shenzhen-is-now-in-lockdown-to-prevent-virus-spread/

Omg! The situation in China is getting very bad.

More than 70 cities are in lockdown and more than 100m people are trapped in these Chinese cities.

However, the virus outbreak is not subsiding as more cities are in lockdown.

Baltic dry index - 431

Today, Thursday, February 06 2020, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 1 point, reaching 431 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
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Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 790

Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

Bad news! China has started to reduce its imports.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinese-gas-buyer-cnooc-declares-064044988.html

The reduction in commodity imports will have a multiplier effect on other sectors.  There is a significant reduction in China's consumption now and this will affect the global economy.

Friday, February 7, 2020

Coronavirus updates!

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Singapore is one of the top 3 epicentres in the world and SG has exported the virus to Malaysia, South Korea and the UK.

Singapore raises risk alert to orange!

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/government-economy/singapore-raises-risk-alert-for-novel-coronavirus-to-orange

SG government raises risk alert to orange and advises organizers to cancel or defer non-essential large scale events.

Is SG airshow essential?  of course not!  However, our government deems it as essential and insists that it must carry on.

https://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/major-summit-on-eve-of-singapore-airshow-canceled-on-coronavirus-fears

Hong Leong Finance - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/28/19 Lim & Tan Hong Leong Finance 2.71 0 Buy
04/26/19 Lim & Tan Hong Leong Finance 2.8 0 Buy

Hong Leong Asia - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
01/28/20 Lim & Tan Hong Leong Asia 0.625 0 Buy on weakness

Hock Lian Seng - Stock calls

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
08/02/19 Lim & Tan Hock Lian Seng 0.33 0 Buy on weakness

Stock calls for 7 February 2020

Date Analyst Company Last Target Call Valuation
02/07/20 OCBC A-Reit 3.3 3.59 Buy
02/07/20 DBS Vickers Ascendas India Trust 1.65 1.85 Buy
02/07/20 UOB Kay Hian DBS 25.7 28.65 Buy
02/07/20 DMG & Partners Delfi 0.96 1.68 Buy DCF
02/07/20 DBS Vickers Jumbo 0.335 0.38 Buy PER23x FY20
02/07/20 CIMB Manulife US Reit 1.07 1.13 Add DDM
02/07/20 Kim Eng Manulife US Reit 1.07 1.15 Buy DDM
02/07/20 DBS Vickers Sembcorp Industries 2.16 2.2 Hold
02/07/20 Citi Research Sembcorp Industries 2.16 2.8 Buy
02/07/20 OCBC Sembcorp Industries 2.16 2.13 Hold
02/07/20 UOB Kay Hian Sembcorp Industries 2.16 2.17 Hold Buy @ $2.05
02/07/20 Lim & Tan Sembcorp Industries 2.16 0 Hold
02/07/20 DMG & Partners Sembcorp Industries 2.16 2.68 Buy Sum of parts, PER10x FY20

Singapore has exported coronavirus to the UK.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/third-uk-coronavirus-patient-quarantine-214100995.html

Singapore is famous for the wrong reason again.  SG has exported coronavirus to the UK.

It looks like SG is fast becoming a transmission hub because SG has exported coronavirus to Malaysia, South Korea, and the UK.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/02/the-regional-countries-are-starting-to.html

Thursday, February 6, 2020

The US is digging its own grave!

https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-administration-denying-more-tariff-exemption-requests-11580736641

There is no doubt that China cannot fulfill its obligations under the Phase 1 deal.

The US is having a myopic view by not extending tariff exemption to US firms procuring China products.  Why?

This denial will cause US prices to go up and create inflation when the economy is not doing well.  Stagflation is a very difficult issue to resolve.  The US is digging its own grave because it wants to reduce China's imports deliberately.  The US firms have no choice but to increase prices or shift out for their own survival.

MIT: Recession is coming!

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/05/70percent-chance-of-recession-in-next-six-months-study-from-mit-and-state-street-finds.html

Why are we not surprised that a recession will be coming?

We've stated back in 2019 that March 2020 would be the end of a good period.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/12/the-recession-constellation-are.html

China has acknowledged that it cannot fulfill the US-China phase 1 deal.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/china-likely-considering-disaster-clause-060457370.html

Just as we projected in April 2019, China is unable to fulfill the US-China phase 1 deal now.  Even without the virus outbreak, China also couldn't fulfill the deal because the set targets were unrealistic.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/01/many-analysts-are-casting-doubts-on.html

Therefore, US exports to China won't increase significantly for the next few months.  It will be a blessing for the US if China doesn't reduce US imports due to poor local consumption.