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Wednesday, March 4, 2020

Overseas Education - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
04/23/19UOB Kay HianOverseas Edu0.330.46BuyEV/Ebitda10.4x
05/08/19UOB Kay HianOverseas Edu0.30.46BuyEV/Ebitda10.4x
05/08/19Lim & TanOverseas Edu0.30.48BuyDDM & DCF
08/19/19UOB Kay HianOverseas Edu0.2850.46Buy
09/11/19Lim & TanOverseas Edu0.290Buy
11/12/19UOB Kay HianOverseas Edu0.2850.46Buy
12/19/19Lim & TanOverseas Edu0.320Buy
02/17/20Lim & TanOverseas Edu0.3650Buy
02/18/20UOB Kay HianOverseas Edu0.3650.49Buy

Stock calls for 4 March 2020

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
03/04/20DMG & PartnersAmara0.40.78BuyRNAV (44% discount)
03/04/20PhillipCapitaland3.584.2BuyRNAV (20% discount)
03/04/20CitibankDBS23.6624.4Hold
03/04/20DMG & PartnersHyphens Pharma0.230.27BuyDCF
03/04/20DBS VickersJapfa0.5750.84BuySum of parts, PER11x
03/04/20PhillipJEP0.2050.25BuyPER14x FY20
03/04/20UOB Kay HianMapletree Logistics1.892.08BuyDDM
03/04/20CitibankOCBC10.6511Hold
03/04/20CIMBSunningdale1.21.1Hold
03/04/20CitibankUOB24.2724.4Hold

Hong Kong PMI plunges to record low but Hongkongers do not care.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/coronavirus-sends-hong-kong-feb-business-activity-plunging-to-record-low-pmi-2020-03-03

The HK PMI plunges to record low which is also indicating that HK will enter into a recession but Hongkongers do not care because they are still continuing their anti-government protests despite being able to receive HK$10,000 handout per head (above 18-year old) from the government.

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/3053025/hong-kong-protests-riot-police-fire-tear-gas-pepper-spray

How many times can the HK government give handouts to these people especially when HK is entering into a severe recession?

Goodbye HK! RIP!

Why was China not following the US in an emergency cut?

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/chinas-central-bank-keeps-short-term-rates-steady-despite-fed-easing-2020-03-03

A monetary policy such as an interest rate cut is meant to resolve demand-side problems by boosting consumer spendings and business investments.  It is not meant to fix supply-side problems like supply disruption caused by an exogenous condition such as a virus outbreak.

This is the primary reason for China to stay put as it wants to monitor the work resumption situation first before taking any further stimulating policy.

Yes, the FED is wrong to do an inter-meeting emergency cut.

A China man is hinting that Singapore covid-19 cases are not true.

In this video, a China man is alleging that Singapore covid-19 cases are not reflective of the true situation.  This was because a Wuhan whore came to Singapore and served more than 250 Singaporean men during the virus outbreak and she was diagnosed with covid-19 virus upon her return to China.

This is really bad news for SG if his allegation is true.


Why did the US Fed do emergency interest rates cut?

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-cuts-interest-rate-by-half-percentage-point-in-rare-inter-meeting-move-2020-03-03

Let's try to understand and analyze the monetary situation in the US prior to the emergency interest rates cut by the US Fed.

As usual, we will look at the 4 US rates.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/01/what-will-fed-do-for-upcoming-meeting.html (Previous post)

Iorr: 1.6% prior to the cut of 0.5% to 1.1% (Mar 2020).

The previous max limit was 1.75%.  The current max limit is 1.25% after the cut.

The Iorr increased to 1.6% from 1.55% prior to the cut and it was within the limit set by the Fed.


Effr: 1.59% (increased from 1.55%).  It is within the range of 1.5% to 1.75% set by the Fed.


Ioer: 1.6% prior to the cut of 0.5% to 1.1% (Mar 2020).

The Iorr increased to 1.6% from 1.55% prior to the cut and it was within the limit set by the Fed (1.5% to 1.75%).


On RRP: 1.5%, Min limit is 1.5% as set by the Fed.


Effr: 1.59% (prior to the emergency cut)
Ioer: 1.6% (prior to the emergency cut)

The Effr-Ioer spread was negligible which showed that there was no monetary tightening the US financial and monetary system and all the 4 rates were within the 1.5% to 1.75% set by the Fed.

Therefore, there is no valid reason for the US Fed to do emergency interest rates cut prior to the March 17-18 FED meeting.

What's the rationale behind this emergency cut?

Well, the only rationale left will be this is a pre-emptive move for something worse to come.

What's the biggest risk now? Covid-19 outbreak!

This emergency cut is just telling us that the covid-19 outbreak in the US is worse than what it seems and the US Fed can no longer wait until the March meeting to do the cut.  We've been suspecting and doubting the real covid-19 situation in the US.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/03/why-are-global-scientists-claiming-now.html

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/03/signs-that-us-cannot-contain-covid-19.html

The US stock markets fell heavily because of this emergency cut.  Consequently, we expect the US infection rate and death toll to increase significantly after the emergency cut because this is what the FED is insinuating.

The US death toll has increased to 9 as we speak.  The fatality rate is 7.4% (9/122) in the US which is much higher than in China (3.7%).


Tuesday, March 3, 2020

US medical whistleblower complained about poor US medical protocols.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/hhs-conducting-internal-investigation-whistleblower-complaint/story?id=69343176

The US will definitely have Covid-19 community spread because of its poor medical protocols and bad containment measures.

The US is still fudging its covid-19 statistics by not testing the sick.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/03/signs-that-us-cannot-contain-covid-19.html

OUE Lippo HC - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
03/11/19Soochow SSDOUE Lippo HC0.0660.088BuySum of parts

OUE Hospitality - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
01/02/19CIMBOUE Hospitality0.670.85AddDDM
01/16/19OCBCOUE Hospitality0.6850.79Buy
01/30/19DBS VickersOUE Hospitality0.6950.85BuyDCF
01/31/19OCBCOUE Hospitality0.7250.82Buy
03/18/19DMG & PartnersOUE Hospitality0.7250.77Buy
04/09/19DMG & PartnersOUE Hospitality0.7350.76Take ProfitAccept offer
04/09/19DBS VickersOUE Hospitality0.7350.85Buy
04/10/19CIMBOUE Hospitality0.7250.85Add
05/03/19CIMBOUE Hospitality0.720.85Add
06/06/19DMG & PartnersOUE Hospitality0.680.76Take Profit
07/04/19DMG & PartnersOUE Hospitality0.720.76Take Profit

OUE Commercial - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
01/31/19OCBCOUE Commercial0.490.5Hold
01/31/19DBS VickersOUE Commercial0.490.6BuyDCF
02/04/19CIMBOUE Commercial0.5150.57Hold
02/08/19DBS VickersOUE Commercial0.510.6Buy
04/03/19DBS VickersOUE Commercial0.520.6Buy
04/10/19CIMBOUE Commercial0.510.57Hold
05/10/19CIMBOUE Commercial0.50.57Hold
10/04/19DBS VickersOUE Commercial0.540.59Buy
10/04/19CIMBOUE Commercial0.540.61Hold
11/15/19DBS VickersOUE Commercial0.540.6BuyDCF
11/19/19OCBCOUE Commercial0.5450.535Hold
11/19/19CIMBOUE Commercial0.5450.57HoldDDM
12/04/19DBS VickersOUE Commercial0.560.6Buy
02/03/20OCBCOUE Commercial0.5450.55Hold
02/03/20DBS VickersOUE Commercial0.5450.6BuyDCF
02/13/20CIMBOUE Commercial0.5250.53HoldDDM

Stock calls for 3 March 2020

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
03/03/20phillipCity Developments9.7411.89BuyRNAV (30% discount), PB0.98x FY20
03/03/20DMG & PartnersIreit0.7850.92BuyDDM
03/03/20UOB Kay HianJapfa0.590.88BuySum of parts
03/03/20UOB Kay HianKoufu0.710.81Buy
03/03/20Lim & TanKoufu0.710Hold
03/03/20DBS VickersSunpower0.530.84Buy

What's wrong with Singapore minister?

Singapore minister scolded Singaporeans for being a bunch of disgraceful idiots when they went on a panic buying spree.

What's my take on this remark?

Well, I believe this minister has lost touch with people on the ground and SG is the only place in the world whereby our minister will verbally abuse our citizens.

Did Singaporeans do something out of the ordinary? Hell No!

Panic buying occurs in many places and not just in SG.  Just take a look below.

Indonesia
https://www.asiaone.com/asia/panic-buying-hits-jakarta-supermarkets-govt-announces-first-covid-19-cases

Germany
https://www.dw.com/en/german-supermarkets-report-coronavirus-panic-buying/a-52597644

Italy
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/24/europe/italy-coronavirus-outbreak-monday-intl/index.html

USA
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2020/03/02/coronavirus-toilet-paper-shortage-stores-selling-out/4930420002/

Did their governments scold their own citizens as disgraceful idiots? Hell No!

Signs that the US cannot contain covid-19 virus outbreak.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/02/who-has-raised-covid-19-outbreak-to.html

We had stated in late Feb 2020 that the US couldn't contain the covid-19 outbreak.

There are some signs emerging that prove that we're correct.

1. No testing of the sick.
http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/03/the-true-situation-of-covid-19-in-us.html

2. Poor containment measure.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/02/cdc-released-a-woman-in-texas-who-tested-positive-for-the-coronavirus-totally-unacceptable.html

3. Death toll is increasing rapidly.  The death toll is 6 now as compared to 1 on 1 March.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/03/the-us-reports-its-1st-covid-19-death.html



Monday, March 2, 2020

The true situation of covid-19 in the US.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/02/coronavirus-new-york-city-doctor-has-to-plead-to-test-people.html

The US is not testing the sick for covid-19 virus as attested by the US doctor.

The covid-19 cases will spike significantly once the US conducts thorough testing like South Korea.

Furthermore, the US has 1st and 2nd-generation covid-19 viruses which are more potent.

OUE - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
02/28/19OCBCOUE1.662.32Buy
04/17/19OCBCOUE1.792.32Buy
11/21/19OCBCOUE1.491.69Buy

Olam - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
11/26/19Lim & TanOlam1.820Hold