SIA Engineering - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/07/19	UOB Kay Hian	SIA Engineering	2.39	2.7	Buy	DCF
02/11/19	Kim Eng	SIA Engineering	2.52	2.85	Buy	DCF
02/11/19	OCBC	SIA Engineering	2.52	2.47	Hold
02/11/19	phillip	SIA Engineering	2.52	2.66	Neutral	DCF
02/11/19	UOB Kay Hian	SIA Engineering	2.52	2.55	Hold
02/12/19	CIMB	SIA Engineering	2.39	3.11	Add	DCF
02/12/19	DBS Vickers	SIA Engineering	2.39	2.7	Hold	DCF & PER16x FY20 & Div Yield 4.5% & EV/Ebitda11x
04/15/19	Kim Eng	SIA Engineering	2.49	2.85	Buy
05/14/19	Kim Eng	SIA Engineering	2.43	2.85	Buy	DCF
05/14/19	OCBC	SIA Engineering	2.43	2.43	Hold
05/14/19	UOB Kay Hian	SIA Engineering	2.43	2.55	Hold	Buy @ $2.30
05/14/19	DBS Vickers	SIA Engineering	2.43	2.6	Hold	Sum of parts
05/14/19	CIMB	SIA Engineering	2.43	3.11	Add
07/02/19	Kim Eng	SIA Engineering	2.51	2.85	Buy
07/05/19	DBS Vickers	SIA Engineering	2.72	3.01	Buy
07/08/19	CIMB	SIA Engineering	2.89	3.11	Add	DCF
07/29/19	UOB Kay Hian	SIA Engineering	2.65	2.55	Hold	DCF, Buy @ $2.40
07/29/19	OCBC	SIA Engineering	2.65	2.43	Hold
07/30/19	Kim Eng	SIA Engineering	2.68	2.85	Hold
09/02/19	Kim Eng	SIA Engineering	2.43	2.85	Buy	DCF
11/04/19	Lim & Tan	SIA Engineering	2.65	0	Hold
11/05/19	UOB Kay Hian	SIA Engineering	2.77	3.13	Buy
11/05/19	DBS Vickers	SIA Engineering	2.77	3.3	Buy	Sum of parts
11/05/19	OCBC	SIA Engineering	2.77	2.86	Hold
11/05/19	CIMB	SIA Engineering	2.77	3.3	Add	DCF
11/26/19	Kim Eng	SIA Engineering	2.85	3	Buy
12/27/19	CIMB	SIA Engineering	2.82	3.3	Add
02/04/20	UOB Kay Hian	SIA Engineering	2.58	3.13	Buy	DDM
02/10/20	Lim & Tan	SIA Engineering	2.61	0	Hold
02/11/20	OCBC	SIA Engineering	2.59	2.41	Sell

SIA - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/17/19	UOB Kay Hian	SIA	9.76	10.2	Hold	Sum of parts, Buy @ $9
01/24/19	Kim Eng	SIA	9.5	11.2	Buy	PB0.94x
01/24/19	CIMB	SIA	9.5	10.25	Hold	PB0.9x CY19
02/15/19	CIMB	SIA	9.87	10.25	Hold	PB0.9x CY19
02/15/19	DBS Vickers	SIA	9.87	11	Buy	PB0.9x FY20
02/15/19	Lim & Tan	SIA	9.87	0	Hold
02/18/19	Kim Eng	SIA	9.76	11.2	Buy	PB0.94x
02/18/19	UOB Kay Hian	SIA	9.76	10.2	Hold	Buy @ $9.50
02/18/19	OCBC	SIA	9.76	10.71	Buy
03/19/19	CIMB	SIA	9.83	10.25	Hold
03/19/19	UOB Kay Hian	SIA	9.83	10.1	Hold	Buy @ $9
04/16/19	UOB Kay Hian	SIA	9.88	10.1	Hold	Sum of parts
04/16/19	OCBC	SIA	9.88	11.02	Buy
05/17/19	CIMB	SIA	9.4	10.14	Hold	PB0.9x CY19
05/21/19	OCBC	SIA	9.3	11.02	Buy
05/21/19	UOB Kay Hian	SIA	9.3	9.6	Hold	Buy @ $8.80
05/21/19	DBS Vickers	SIA	9.3	10.8	Buy	PB0.95x FY20
06/19/19	UOB Kay Hian	SIA	9.17	9.5	Hold	Sum of parts, Buy @ $8.60
06/19/19	CIMB	SIA	9.17	10.04	Hold
08/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	SIA	9.67	9.5	Hold	Sum of parts, Buy @ $9.10
08/01/19	DBS Vickers	SIA	9.67	10.8	Buy	PB0.95x FY20
08/01/19	Lim & Tan	SIA	9.67	0	Hold
08/02/19	CIMB	SIA	9.2	10.04	Hold	PB0.9x CY19
09/19/19	UOB Kay Hian	SIA	9.15	9.5	Hold	Sum of parts, Buy @ $8.70
10/17/19	UOB Kay Hian	SIA	9.16	9.5	Hold	Buy @ $9
11/06/19	CIMB	SIA	9.43	10	Hold	PB0.9x CY19
11/06/19	Kim Eng	SIA	9.43	10.7	Buy	PB1x FY21
11/07/19	OCBC	SIA	9.18	10.46	Buy
11/07/19	UOB Kay Hian	SIA	9.18	9.4	Hold	Buy @ $8.70
11/07/19	DBS Vickers	SIA	9.18	10.4	Buy	PB0.95x FY20
01/10/20	UOB Kay Hian	SIA	8.93	9.1	Hold	Sum of parts, Buy @ $8.60
01/14/20	DBS Vickers	SIA	8.95	10.4	Buy
02/04/20	UOB Kay Hian	SIA	8.49	9.1	Hold	Buy @ $8.40
02/06/20	CIMB	SIA	8.59	8.46	Hold	PB0.86x CY20
02/10/20	DBS Vickers	SIA	8.58	10.4	Buy	PB0.95x FY20
02/18/20	OCBC	SIA	8.66	9.9	Buy
03/13/20	CIMB	SIA	7.34	8	Hold	PB0.86x

SHS - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/29/19	phillip	SHS	0.197	0.24	Accumulate	PER10x FY19
03/08/19	phillip	SHS	0.191	0.194	Neutral	PB0.7x
05/21/19	phillip	SHS	0.174	0	Cease coverage

Stock calls for 16 March 2020

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
03/16/20	OCBC	ART	0.95	1.11	Buy
03/16/20	OCBC	CDL Hospitality	1.12	1.09	Hold
03/16/20	OCBC	Far East Hospitality	0.53	0.52	Hold
03/16/20	OCBC	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.56	3.07	Buy
03/16/20	DMG & Partners	Fu Yu	0.2	0.32	Buy	DCF

No US monetary and fiscal policy can save the US stock markets. - Part 3

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/03/no-us-monetary-and-fiscal-policy-can.html

We told you that the US would restart is QE and keep its interest rates low previously (See above).

Guess what!

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/federal-reserve-cuts-rates-to-zero-restarts-quantitative-easing-qe-210001968.html

The US FED did another emergency rate cut yesterday because Trump threatened to demote Powell from FED Chairman to FED director and Powell caved in to Trump's threat for fear of his demotion.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/03/the-us-markets-just-had-dead-cat-bounce.html

We told you that the recent rebound was a dead-cat bounce because the FED was pumping money into the wrong sector (Financial market).  The Asian markets are dropping again after the 2nd FED emergency cut.

The UK has just warned that this covid-19 outbreak will last 1 year and many Brits will get infected.  The US infection rate and death toll are still very low now and will need to rise significantly when there are more covid-19 testings.  The US has just started its free covid-19 testing programme but there is no free covid-19 treatment plan in place.  This won't entice its citizens to come out for testing.  The US must heed our advice to stop the chain of transmission.

The US FED has cut its rate to zero but I can tell you that no business owner will want to borrow free interest-rate loans when there are no customers.  This will be like japanification in the USA.  Japan's interest rates are in negative zone and inflation is still absent because there is not enough customer demand.

What is the FED going to do next when it has no ammunition left?  This is what worries the investors.

Where were the police in Kallang NPP? Police! Where were you?

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/blast-heard-in-front-of-kallang-police-post-man-detained-by-police-eyewitnesses-163611679.html

Singapore police in Kallang NPP didn't come out to investigate when there was a fire burning in front of its police post.  The police also didn't come out to check things out when there were numerous explosions.

Police! Police! Police! Where were you?

The only explanation was police were not in Kallang NPP at that time.

The real situation in Italy.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-scientists/coronavirus-may-have-reached-italy-from-germany-scientists-say-idUSKBN20Y35B

Italy had found its patient zero who was from Germany.  This patient zero visited Hawaii prior to his arrival in Italy and he started to spread the virus in Italy.

Hawaii is an isolated island and yet this patient contracted the virus.  This has led scientists to speculate that covid-19 has been around in the US prior to the outbreak in China.

It is easy to determine the virus origin by analyzing the genome sequence but scientists are not doing it.  Why? They're afraid to determine that this virus doesn't originate in China because the truth will offend the USA government.

The situation in Italy is really serious because Italy is abandoning the sick old people now.  About 23% of Italy population consists of people 65 & above and Italy is reserving the medical supplies and facilities to treat the younger patients.  The old people are feeling betrayed by their government after contributing to Italy in their younger days and yet they're being abandoned now.

The Italian government is abandoning sick old people because of limited medical supplies and healthcare.  Furthermore, Italy has limited financial resources to support their retirements.  If the older population is greatly reduced, this will reduce the financial stresses in the country as the government doesn't need to waste money on them.

It is really heartwrenching to see a government behaving like this.

Baltic dry index - 631

Today, Wednesday, March 11 2020, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 4 points, reaching 631 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

==========================

Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 792

Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

The US markets just had a dead-cat bounce. Why?

Why did I say that the US markets just had a dead-cat bounce?

This is because the US government is doing the wrong thing by pumping money into the wrong sector which is the financial system instead of the medical sector.

When you have a terrorism problem, you should increase your military budget to buy better weapons and provide better training to your military and police forces to deal with the terrorists.  Pumping money into the financial system won't resolve your terrorism problem.

When you have a financial crisis, you should increase your financial budget to provide liquidity to your financial system. No government will pump money into the military or medical sector to resolve a financial crisis.

When you have a healthcare crisis, you should increase your medical budget to provide free covid-19 medical supplies such as free masks, free sanitizers, free covid-19 testing kits, and free covid-19 testings.  Furthermore, free covid-19 treatments must be provided to infected patients so that they will be more willing to come forward to seek treatments to avoid spreading the virus to other people.  The government must also increase hospital beds and build temporary quarantine centres to house infected patients from spreading the virus.

All these measures will cost billions and these billions will be much better used in the medical sector than the financial sector.  A covid-19 testing costs US$1400 per time in the US and a patient may need to be tested a few times to confirm being virus-free.

Insofar, FED has pumped US$1.5T into the financial markets but the US stock markets are still on a downward trajectory.  Why?

This is because the US government is not doing the right thing which is the reason that I'm saying this rebound is a dead-cat bounce.

Is this the time to buy?  My answer is a resounding No and I think there will still be more downsides because the US government is not doing the right thing.  There is no way a stock market will recover when the infection rate and death toll are rising.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/marty-makary-on-coronavirus-in-the-us-183558545.html

The US medical professionals are singing a different tune from the US government.

According to Trump, 37,000 people died from the US flu in 2019.  The covid-19 is 10x more lethal than the US flu as stated by a US top health official.  Therefore, the average death toll per season should be 9250 for flu and 92,500 for covid-19.  The US death toll is just 50 now and the US still has a lot of room to go up.

No US monetary and fiscal policy can save the US stock markets. - Part 2

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/03/no-us-monetary-and-fiscal-policy-can.html

We told you previously that FED was short of USD and the NY Fed injected billions into the FED.

We told you previously that massive credit rating downgrades were coming and S&P warned that it would downgrade oil & gas companies.

We told you earlier that bond investors were cashing out of the US treasury market and FED rushed in to buy the US treasurys.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/13/the-fed-details-moves-to-buy-treasurys-across-all-durations-starting-with-30-year-bond.html

We are doing our best to tell you the symptoms of financial stresses so that you won't be bludgeoned in the market.  I don't know what else I will tell you since I'm monitoring the developments closely but you really need to take note of what I tell you.