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Wednesday, March 18, 2020

Stock calls for 18 March 2020

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
03/18/20CIMBCenturion0.390.58Add
03/18/20CIMBGenting0.620.76AddEV/Ebitda7x FY21
03/18/20Kim EngGenting0.620.84Buy
03/18/20CitibankGreat Eastern18.219.5Hold
03/18/20DBS VickersKeppel Reit0.961.45Buy
03/18/20DBS VickersLendlease Reit0.480.94Buy
03/18/20DBS VickersMapletree Commercial1.772.6Buy
03/18/20UOB Kay HianMapletree Industrial2.142.9Buy
03/18/20DMG & PartnersSheng Siong1.051.42BuyDCF
03/18/20DBS VickersSuntec Reit1.312.15Buy

Red alert: US companies are asking for government bailouts.

The US hotel and travel industry are asking for bailouts!

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/u-hotel-travel-industry-ask-234837213.html

The US airliners are asking for bailouts!

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/u-airlines-face-push-back-203204316.html

The US airplane manufacturer is asking for a bailout!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/03/17/boeing-asks-at-least-60-billion-trump-expresses-support-bailout/

Can you imagine that this virus outbreak is just in its inception in the US and so many US companies are asking for government bailouts?

What will happen to the US when the infections hit 50m people and cause 1.7m deaths?

Will the stock markets recover from now or there are further downsides to come? You decide for yourself.

Just look at the GDP growth forecast for the US in Q2.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/second-quarter-gdp-could-plunge-10-economist-warns-133619896.html

Red alert: US medical workers are getting infected with covid-19.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/one-mask-day-doctors-virus-225407143.html

This is really bad news for the US.

When more medical workers are getting infected, the US will collapse because there won't be enough medical workers to take care of the infected patients.

Don't be surprised that the US will overtake China and become the sick man of the world.


Just take a look at the projection for the US below.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/03/50m-americans-could-be-infected-by.html

Tuesday, March 17, 2020

The Japanese stock markets have more room to fall. Why?

The Japanese stock markets have not factored in the cancellation of the 2020 Olympics.

2020 Olympics won't be postponed to the end of the year in Japan because the weather won't be suitable to hold it anymore.  This event also cannot be postponed to next year (2021) because this will affect the next Olympics which is to be held in 2024.  Therefore, the event is likely to be cancelled since covid-19 outbreak cannot be contained worldwide.  Japan will lose billions from this cancellation since $12 billions have been invested to prepare the sports facilities and infrastructures.

After the 2020 Olympics is cancelled, the Japanese government will start to report the true covid-19 statistics which won't be good.

The 2 achilles' heels of the US economy.

Any rebound in the US stock markets is just temporary because the short-sellers are squaring their positions.

The US stock markets have not priced in the full impacts of the covid-19 outbreak yet.  S&P has projected 50m infections in the US.  We can infer the death toll at 1.7m since the average mortality rate is 3.4%.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/03/50m-americans-could-be-infected-by.html

I've seen other projections and the highest was 170m infections.  Therefore, S&P's projection is considered optimistic since the US flu has infected more than 30m people insofar.

This covid-19 outbreak will hit the 2 Achilles' heels of the US economy which are the corporate debts (include high yield bonds - junk bonds) and the mortgage debts (property).  This is the rationale behind the US FED's action to inject money into the financial market to buy the US treasurys and mortgage-backed securities.

The S&P has started to downgrade the corporate's credit rating now.

https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/s-p-cuts-boeing-to-bbb-keeps-ratings-on-negative-watch-57609123

The S&P has also warned about the shale oil&gas companies and Australia banks ratings.

When the corporate and mortgage debts blow up, the world will face a great recession and this time will be much serious than the past recessions.  This is because people will be losing monies and also their lives.

Singapore Medical - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
01/02/19DMG & PartnersSingapore Medical0.40.56Buy
02/21/19UOB Kay HianSingapore Medical0.470.65BuyPER23x FY19
02/21/19DMG & PartnersSingapore Medical0.470.54BuyDCF
05/10/19UOB Kay HianSingapore Medical0.4450.62BuyPER23x FY19
05/10/19DMG & PartnersSingapore Medical0.4450.48NeutralDCF
06/06/19DMG & PartnersSingapore Medical0.3850.48NeutralDCF
06/07/19DMG & PartnersSingapore Medical0.380.48BuyDCF
08/08/19DMG & PartnersSingapore Medical0.370.48BuyDCF
10/15/19DMG & PartnersSingapore Medical0.3050.48Buy
11/13/19DMG & PartnersSingapore Medical0.3250.36NeutralDCF, PER13.4x
02/25/20DMG & PartnersSingapore Medical0.320.35NeutralPER11.3x FY20

Silverlake - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
01/02/19DMG & PartnersSilverlake0.4150.65BuyDCF
01/03/19DBS VickersSilverlake0.4050.6BuyPER21x FY19
01/07/19DBS VickersSilverlake0.4250.62BuyPER21x FY19
02/01/19DMG & PartnersSilverlake0.4850.65BuyDCF
02/15/19DBS VickersSilverlake0.5150.62BuyPER21x FY19
03/01/19CIMBSilverlake0.570.62AddSum of parts, PER19x CY20
03/13/19DMG & PartnersSilverlake0.5550.65BuyDCF
05/07/19DMG & PartnersSilverlake0.610.65BuyDCF
05/16/19DBS VickersSilverlake0.520.63BuyPER21x FY19
05/16/19CIMBSilverlake0.520.58Add
06/06/19DMG & PartnersSilverlake0.530.65BuyDCF
08/01/19DMG & PartnersSilverlake0.520.65BuyDCF
08/26/19CIMBSilverlake0.510.53Hold
08/26/19DBS VickersSilverlake0.510.6BuyPER21x FY20
09/05/19DMG & PartnersSilverlake0.4550.56BuyDCF
10/08/19DMG & PartnersSilverlake0.440.56Buy
11/15/19DBS VickersSilverlake0.440.57BuyPER21x FY20
11/18/19DMG & PartnersSilverlake0.430.46NeutralDCF
12/10/19DMG & PartnersSilverlake0.410.46Neutral
02/14/20DBS VickersSilverlake0.370.48BuyPER21x FY20
02/14/20DMG & PartnersSilverlake0.370.41NeutralDCF

SIIC - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
01/21/19DBS VickersSIIC0.290.32HoldPER13x FY19
08/13/19DBS VickersSIIC0.2350.265HoldFS

Stock calls for 17 March 2020

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
03/17/20Kim EngCache Logistics0.5150.8Buy
03/17/20Kim EngCapitamall Trust22.7Buy
03/17/20DMG & PartnersOCBC8.79.6BuyGGM, PB0.89x FY20
03/17/20DBS VickersOCBC8.78.6HoldGGM, PB0.8x FY20
03/17/20Kim EngSPH Reit0.871.15Buy
03/17/20DMG & PartnersST Engineering3.364.9BuySum of parts
03/17/20DBS VickersUOB19.4519HoldGGM, PB0.8x FY20
03/17/20UOB Kay HianYangzijiang0.81.25Buy

Singapore Nodx climbed 3% yoy in February.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/exports-nodx-february-singapore-12545258
Year on year changes (YOY):
February 2020: 3%
January 2020: - 3.3%
December 2019: 2.4%
November 2019: - 5.9%
October 2019: - 12.3%
September 2019: -8.1%
August 2019: - 8.9%
July 2019: -11.2%
June 2019: -17.3%
May 2019: -15.9%
April 2019: -10%
March 2019: -11.7%
February 2019: 4.9%
January 2019: -10.1%
December 2018: -8.5%
November 2018: -2.6%
October 2018: 8.3%
September 2018: 8.3%
August 2018: 5%
July 2018: 11.8% (Corrected)
June 2018: 1.1%
May 2018: 15.5%
April 2018: 11.8%
March 2018: -2.7%
February 2018: -5.9%
January 2018: 13%
December 2017: 3.1%
November 2017: 9.1%
October 2017: 20.9%
September 2017: -1.1%
August 2017: 16.7%
July 2017: 8.5%
June 2017: 8.2%
May 2017: -1.2%
Apr 2017: -0.7%
Mar 2017: 16.5%
Feb 2017: 21.1%
Jan 2017: 8.6%

50m Americans could be infected by covid-19.

https://www.asiainsurancereview.com/News/View-NewsLetter-Article/id/60687/Type/eDaily/COVID-19-Around-50m-Americans-could-be-infected-and-lead-to-90bn-medical-insurance-claims

S&P is projecting that 50m Americans will be infected by covid-19.  This means there will be 1.7m deaths in the US at a 3.4% mortality rate.

The US still has a long way to go from the current statistics.  The US cases are rising rapidly now.


omg! The UK has given up its fight against covid-19 outbreak.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-13/u-k-says-virus-needs-to-infect-60-of-britons-to-save-lives

The UK has given up!

This is really an insane proposition.

The UK will be the virus outbreak epicentre soon because it is not trying to contain and mitigate the outbreak.  It will let its people mingle around to achieve the herd immunity objective.

We must ban UK now!

Monday, March 16, 2020

The US markets just had a dead-cat bounce. Why? - Part 2

We are right again!

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/03/the-us-markets-just-had-dead-cat-bounce.html

We told you that it was a dead-cat bounce last Friday.  There is no way for the stock markets to recover when the infection rate and death toll are increasing.

The US cases are increasing rapidly now.