Stock calls for 4 June 2020

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/04/20	Jefferies	A-Reit		3.1	Buy
06/04/20	DMG & Partners	CSE Global	0.49	0.54	Buy	PER12x FY20
06/04/20	Lim & Tan	CSE Global	0.49	0	Buy
06/04/20	CIMB	CSE Global	0.49	0.55	Add
06/04/20	UOB Kay Hian	Valuetronics	0.625	0.55	Sell
06/04/20	CIMB	Valuetronics	0.625	0.53	Reduce	PER9x FY20

Perennial Reit - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/24/19	DBS Vickers	Perennial Reit	0.65	0.83	Buy	RNAV (55% discount)
05/13/19	DBS Vickers	Perennial Reit	0.64	0.83	Buy	RNAV (55% discount)
02/21/20	DBS Vickers	Perennial Reit	0.52	0.83	Buy	RNAV (55% discount)
05/08/20	DBS Vickers	Perennial Reit	0.5	0.83	Buy

Penguin - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/26/19	phillip	Penguin	0.45	0.61	Buy	PER5x FY19 (ex-cash)
05/21/19	phillip	Penguin	0.44	0.61	Buy	PER5x FY19 (ex-cash)
05/27/19	CIMB	Penguin	0.445	0.72	Add	PB1x FY19
08/07/19	phillip	Penguin	0.495	0.61	Buy	PER5x FY19 (ex-cash)
10/09/19	UOB Kay Hian	Penguin	0.62	0.85	Buy	PER7.6x FY2020
11/08/19	CIMB	Penguin	0.66	0.81	Add	PB1x FY20
11/08/19	UOB Kay Hian	Penguin	0.66	0.85	Buy
11/11/19	phillip	Penguin	0.7	0.93	Buy	PER5x FY20 (ex-cash)
12/06/19	UOB Kay Hian	Penguin	0.725	0.85	Buy
02/26/20	CIMB	Penguin	0.71	0.82	Add	PB1x FY20
02/26/20	UOB Kay Hian	Penguin	0.71	0.85	Buy
02/27/20	phillip	Penguin	0.675	0.88	Buy	PER5x FY20 (ex-cash)
04/15/20	Lim & Tan	Penguin	0.495	0.7	Buy	PB1x
06/01/20	Lim & Tan	Penguin	0.5	0	Buy
06/03/20	phillip	Penguin	0.525	0.55	Accumlate	PB0.7x FY20

Parkway Life - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	Parkway Life	2.92	3.25	Buy	DDM
05/02/19	UOB Kay Hian	Parkway Life	2.89	3.25	Buy
07/31/19	Lim & Tan	Parkway Life	3.06	0	Hold
08/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	Parkway Life	3.06	3.25	Buy
08/01/19	DBS Vickers	Parkway Life	3.06	3.35	Buy
10/31/19	Lim & Tan	Parkway Life	3.24	0	Hold
11/01/19	UOB Kay Hian	Parkway Life	3.27	3.58	Buy	DDM
11/01/19	CIMB	Parkway Life	3.27	3.26	Hold
01/22/20	Lim & Tan	Parkway Life	3.4	0	Hold
01/29/20	UOB Kay Hian	Parkway Life	3.6	3.78	Buy	DDM
02/13/20	DBS Vickers	Parkway Life	3.56	4	Buy	DCF
04/23/20	UOB Kay Hian	Parkway Life	3.34	3.78	Buy	DDM
04/23/20	CIMB	Parkway Life	3.34	3.38	Hold	DDM
04/27/20	Lim & Tan	Parkway Life	3.31	0	Hold

Stock calls for 3 June 2020

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/03/20	CIMB	APAC Realty	0.405	0.538	Add	DCF
06/03/20	DBS Vickers	Capitamall Trust	2.13	2.15	Buy
06/03/20	DBS Vickers	CapitaRetail China	1.38	1.55	Buy
06/03/20	UOB Kay Hian	CSE Global	0.475	0.65	Buy
06/03/20	DBS Vickers	Mapletree Commercial	2.07	2.25	Buy
06/03/20	DBS Vickers	Mapletree North Asia	0.9	1.05	Buy
06/03/20	phillip	Penguin	0.525	0.55	Accumlate	PB0.7x FY20
06/03/20	DBS Vickers	Riverstone	2.24	3.09	Buy	PER28x FY20
06/03/20	DBS Vickers	Sasseur	0.8	0.8	Buy
06/03/20	Lim & Tan	SIA	4.11	0	Take Profit
06/03/20	DBS Vickers	SPH Reit	0.88	0.8	Hold
06/03/20	DMG & Partners	Starhill	0.535	0.63	Buy	DDM
06/03/20	Lim & Tan	Valuetronics	0.68	0	Take Profit

Deutsche Bank has corroborated our analysis finally!

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-may-sell-treasurys-but-that-doesnt-mean-its-weaponizing-its-more-than-1-trillion-hoard-of-us-debt-says-deutsche-bank-2020-06-02?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

We had stated previously that China wouldn't use its US treasuries as a weapon against the US because it defied economic sense.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/06/china-has-started-to-sell-us-treasuries.html

Many analysts are still having this flawed thinking about China weaponizing its US treasuries.  However, DB has come to its sense and corroborated our analysis.

Hot news! Hainan will be a tax-free port by 2025!

https://www.yicaiglobal.com/news/china-to-turn-hainan-into-zero-tariff-free-trade-port-by-2025

We had stated just a few days ago that the direct FDIs in China would increase while the HK's FDIs in China would decrease.  We are proven right again in our analysis.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/05/how-important-is-hong-kong-to-china.html

After our posting, China has just announced that Hainan will be tax-free port by 2025.  This will definitely undermine HK's financial hub status.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/11/hong-kong-is-financial-hub-because-of.html

International trading will decrease in HK in the future and HK will lose its financial hub status over time.  The Hongkongers are paying a heavy price just to be US puppets.

The US ISM PMI is still in a recessionary mode in May 2020.

The May PMI is still in a recessionary mode (Low 40s).

Therefore, this latest PMI has confirmed that the US is still in a recession in Q2.

PanUnited - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
01/28/20	Lim & Tan	PanUnited	0.375	0	Buy on weakness
02/11/20	Lim & Tan	PanUnited	0.365	0.56	Buy	PB2x FY21
04/06/20	Lim & Tan	PanUnited	0.27	0	Hold

PACC Offshore - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/14/19	DBS Vickers	PACC Offshore	0.173	0.2	Hold	PB0.8x FY19
08/08/19	DBS Vickers	PACC Offshore	0.145	0.15	Hold	PB0.6x
11/07/19	DBS Vickers	PACC Offshore	0.21	0.22	Hold	PB1x FY19

Oxley - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
05/02/19	DBS Vickers	Oxley	0.325	0.68	Buy
06/13/19	DMG & Partners	Oxley	0.31	0.41	Buy	RNAV (45% discount)
09/11/19	DMG & Partners	Oxley	0.31	0.41	Buy
09/24/19	DMG & Partners	Oxley	0.305	0.43	Buy	RNAV (45% discount)
09/25/19	UOB Kay Hian	Oxley	0.31	0.64	Buy	RNAV (30% discount)
10/02/19	DMG & Partners	Oxley	0.32	0.43	Buy
10/15/19	DMG & Partners	Oxley	0.325	0.43	Buy	RNAV (45% discount)
10/29/19	UOB Kay Hian	Oxley	0.34	0.5	Buy	RNAV (30% discount)
11/14/19	DMG & Partners	Oxley	0.345	0.43	Buy	RNAV (45% discount)
12/16/19	DMG & Partners	Oxley	0.35	0.43	Buy	RNAV (45% discount)
01/08/20	DMG & Partners	Oxley	0.375	0.43	Buy
02/11/20	UOB Kay Hian	Oxley	0.34	0.49	Buy
02/12/20	DMG & Partners	Oxley	0.34	0.42	Buy	RNAV (45% discount)
03/27/20	DMG & Partners	Oxley	0.22	0.36	Buy	RNAV (55% discount)
04/07/20	DMG & Partners	Oxley	0.199	0.36	Buy
04/13/20	UOB Kay Hian	Oxley	0.225	0.48	Buy	RNAV (30% discount)
04/13/20	DMG & Partners	Oxley	0.225	0.31	Buy	RNAV (55% discount)
05/27/20	DMG & Partners	Oxley	0.23	0.29	Buy	RNAV (55% discount)

Stock calls for 2 June 2020

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/02/20	DBS Vickers	A-Reit	3.16	3.45	Buy
06/02/20	DBS Vickers	AIMS AMP Cap Ind Reit	1.26	1.4	Buy
06/02/20	CIMB	Avi-Tech	0.39	0.422	Add
06/02/20	DMG & Partners	Capitaland	2.97	4	Buy
06/02/20	DMG & Partners	Comfortdelgro	1.43	1.65	Buy	DCF
06/02/20	DBS Vickers	Frasers Logistics	1.15	1.4	Buy
06/02/20	Amfrasers	Frencken	0.81	1.01	outperform	PER10x FY20
06/02/20	DBS Vickers	Hutchison Port	0.112	0.12	Hold	DCF
06/02/20	UOB Kay Hian	Keppel Corp	5.96	7.15	Buy
06/02/20	DBS Vickers	MM2 Asia	0.175	0.14	Fully Valued	Sum of parts, PER6x FY21

Overseas Edu - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/23/19	UOB Kay Hian	Overseas Edu	0.33	0.46	Buy	EV/Ebitda10.4x
05/08/19	UOB Kay Hian	Overseas Edu	0.3	0.46	Buy	EV/Ebitda10.4x
05/08/19	Lim & Tan	Overseas Edu	0.3	0.48	Buy	DDM & DCF
08/19/19	UOB Kay Hian	Overseas Edu	0.285	0.46	Buy
09/11/19	Lim & Tan	Overseas Edu	0.29	0	Buy
11/12/19	UOB Kay Hian	Overseas Edu	0.285	0.46	Buy
12/19/19	Lim & Tan	Overseas Edu	0.32	0	Buy
02/17/20	Lim & Tan	Overseas Edu	0.365	0	Buy
02/18/20	UOB Kay Hian	Overseas Edu	0.365	0.49	Buy

OUE Hospitality - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/09/19	DMG & Partners	OUE Hospitality	0.735	0.76	Take Profit	Accept offer
04/09/19	DBS Vickers	OUE Hospitality	0.735	0.85	Buy
04/10/19	CIMB	OUE Hospitality	0.725	0.85	Add
05/03/19	CIMB	OUE Hospitality	0.72	0.85	Add
06/06/19	DMG & Partners	OUE Hospitality	0.68	0.76	Take Profit
07/04/19	DMG & Partners	OUE Hospitality	0.72	0.76	Take Profit

OUE Commercial - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
04/03/19	DBS Vickers	OUE Commercial	0.52	0.6	Buy
04/10/19	CIMB	OUE Commercial	0.51	0.57	Hold
05/10/19	CIMB	OUE Commercial	0.5	0.57	Hold
10/04/19	DBS Vickers	OUE Commercial	0.54	0.59	Buy
10/04/19	CIMB	OUE Commercial	0.54	0.61	Hold
11/15/19	DBS Vickers	OUE Commercial	0.54	0.6	Buy	DCF
11/19/19	OCBC	OUE Commercial	0.545	0.535	Hold
11/19/19	CIMB	OUE Commercial	0.545	0.57	Hold	DDM
12/04/19	DBS Vickers	OUE Commercial	0.56	0.6	Buy
02/03/20	OCBC	OUE Commercial	0.545	0.55	Hold
02/03/20	DBS Vickers	OUE Commercial	0.545	0.6	Buy	DCF
02/13/20	CIMB	OUE Commercial	0.525	0.53	Hold	DDM
03/30/20	DBS Vickers	OUE Commercial	0.335	0.6	Buy

Stock calls for 1 June 2020

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
06/01/20	DBS Vickers	ART	0.96	1.1	Buy
06/01/20	DBS Vickers	CDL Hospitality	0.95	1.3	Buy
06/01/20	DBS Vickers	Comfortdelgro	1.44	1.68	Buy	PER16.8x FY20/21
06/01/20	DBS Vickers	Far East Hospitality	0.495	0.6	Buy
06/01/20	DBS Vickers	Frasers Centrepoint Trust	2.43	2.65	Buy	PB1.2x
06/01/20	CIMB	ISDN	0.235	0.279	Add	Up from $0.22
06/01/20	DBS Vickers	Koufu	0.65	0.68	Hold
06/01/20	DBS Vickers	Lendlease Reit	0.67	0.85	Buy
06/01/20	DBS Vickers	OCBC	8.55	7.9	Hold
06/01/20	Lim & Tan	Penguin	0.5	0	Buy
06/01/20	DBS Vickers	SATS	2.66	2.64	Hold
06/01/20	DBS Vickers	Sembcorp Industries	1.36	1.7	Buy	Sum of parts (10% discount)
06/01/20	Phillip	Singtel	2.49	2.44	Neutral	Sum of parts
06/01/20	DBS Vickers	UOB	19.5	17.5	Hold

The US police brutality protests are spreading worldwide but HK and Human rights groups are not involved.

https://www.vox.com/2020/5/31/21276031/george-floyd-protests-london-berlin

Why are HK and Human Rights Groups keeping silent on the US police brutality protests?

Are they condoning police brutality or being discriminatory?

HK and Human Rights Groups no longer have any right to speak up against police brutality in Asia if they keep silent on the US police brutality acts.

How important is Hong Kong to China?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-protests-finance-explainer/explainer-how-important-is-hong-kong-to-china-as-a-free-finance-hub-idUSKBN2350VO

Many analysts painted the picture that at least 60% of FDI in China came from HK and without HK, China would lose all these foreign direct investments (FDIs).  However, the truth is the exact opposite from these analyses.  Why?

Many US firms established their regional HQs or HQs in HK because of the US special trading status bestowed upon HK since the US wanted to make use of the special political status (1 country-2 systems) that HK possessed.  The HK tax-free status between the US and HK had given the US firms the advantages to import and export to China through HK without any tax.  Therefore, many US firms avoided direct investments in China by harnessing this special trading status in HK and invest in China indirectly through HK.  This basic understanding helps to explain the high HK's FDI in China. 

This special US-HK trading status also gives US the leverage to embark on a US-China trade war because the US can exclude the HK trading figures from the US-China trade deficit.  In the last decade, the US-HK trade surplus had reached about US$300B which had benefitted the US.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/amcham-sad-day-hong-kong-trump-strips-special-treatment-12786452

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/05/how-did-us-fudge-us-china-trade-data.html

The time has come for China to close this loophole in the US-China trading relationship.  HK was able to enjoy this preferential treatment because China had always treated HK as a long-lost child.  Recently, China had decided to impose its national securities law (NSL) on HK so that it could get rid of US influences in HK to restore peace and order in HK.  Yes, there will be protests in the next 1-2 years but peace and order will return after China executes the NSL against some defiant Hongkongers as a show of force.  This NSL will be good for HK in the long run.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/11/hong-kong-is-financial-hub-because-of.html

The US firms will lose a lot and China will gain more leverage against the US because the US firms will have to invest directly in China instead since there is no added advantage by using HK after the US cancels the special US-HK trading status.  The US has to weigh the pros and cons now with regards to this cancellation.

Many US firms will not choose to give up the China market since there are a lot of monies to be made and their stock prices will drop significantly without China revenues.  Therefore, China will gain more direct FDIs but will diminish its HK's FDIs in the end which will not result in a significant fall in the total China FDI figure.  The only victim in this episode will be HK since HK deserves it with its misjudgement (anti-China stance).

Baltic dry index - 504

Today, Friday, May 29 2020, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 15 points, reaching 504 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

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Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 301

Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.