Baltic dry index - 1348

Today, Thursday, July 30 2020, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 31 points, reaching 1348 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

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Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean

US rig count - 942

Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco

The US treasury department is awashed with US$1.8T.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/money-markets-seek-treasury-answer-100000877.html

The US treasury has US$1.8T in cash.

We had stated previously that the US treasury department was flushed with USD.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/03/weve-correctly-predicted-end-of-good-us.html

Red alert: The US economy is going to contract sharply in Q2. - Part 2

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/30/us-gdp-q2-2020-first-reading.html

The US Q2 GDP collapsed by 32.9% and the Q1 GDP was revised down to -5%.  We're right again!

We had stated on numerous postings that the US Q2 GDP would be worse than Q1 by analyzing US consumer spendings and PMIs.  Therefore, the big drop in US Q2 GDP is an expected outcome if you've been following our earlier postings.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/04/red-alert-us-economy-is-going-to.html

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/05/the-us-ism-pmi-in-april-had-worsened.html

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/06/the-imf-has-finally-agreed-with-our-us.html

Ho Bee - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
11/19/19	Lim & Tan	Ho Bee	2.34	0	Buy

HMI - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/08/19	UOB Kay Hian	HMI	0.660	0.73	Accept offer	offer at $0.73
07/08/19	Kim Eng	HMI	0.660	0.66	Hold	DCF, accept offer at $0.73
07/08/19	CIMB	HMI	0.660	0.68	Add	offer at $0.73
07/09/19	phillip	HMI	0.720	0.73	Accept offer	offer at $0.73
08/20/19	Lim & Tan	HMI	0.720	0.73	Accept offer	offer at $0.73
08/21/19	Kim Eng	HMI	0.720	0.73	Hold	offer at $0.73

Hi-P - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/19/19	DBS Vickers	Hi-P	1.43	1.41	Hold	PER12x FY19
08/05/19	DBS Vickers	Hi-P	1.34	1.32	Hold	PER12x FY20
10/10/19	Kim Eng	Hi-P	1.19	1.21	Hold	PB1.5x FY19
11/01/19	DBS Vickers	Hi-P	1.44	1.39	Hold	PER13x FY20
11/01/19	Kim Eng	Hi-P	1.44	1.34	Sell	PB1.5x FY20
02/14/20	DBS Vickers	Hi-P	1.3	1.37	Hold	PER14x FY20
02/18/20	Kim Eng	Hi-P	1.31	1	Sell	PB1.2x FY20
03/30/20	Kim Eng	Hi-P	0.83	0.78	Hold	Roe-g/Coe-g, PB1x FY20
04/02/20	DBS Vickers	Hi-P	0.835	0.85	Hold
04/20/20	Kim Eng	Hi-P	0.97	0.78	Neutral

Stock calls for 30 July 2020

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/30/20	OCBC	ART	0.895	1.03	Buy
07/30/20	DBS Vickers	Capitaland	2.76	4.5	Buy
07/30/20	UOB Kay Hian	CDL Hospitality	0.97	1	Hold	DDM, Buy @ $0.9
07/30/20	DBS Vickers	CDL Hospitality	0.97	1.3	Buy
07/30/20	Kim Eng	CDL Hospitality	0.97	0.95	Hold
07/30/20	DBS Vickers	City Developments	8.28	13	Buy
07/30/20	DMG & Partners	Dairy Farm	4.15	4.47	Neutral	DCF
07/30/20	DBS Vickers	Dairy Farm	4.15	4.86	Buy	Sum of parts
07/30/20	Macquarie	DBS	20.4	25.5	outperform	PB
07/30/20	OCBC	DBS	20.4	20	Hold
07/30/20	UOB Kay Hian	DBS	20.4	23.12	Buy
07/30/20	DBS Vickers	Frasers Property	1.18	1.7	Buy
07/30/20	Lim & Tan	Hongkong Land	3.72	0	Buy
07/30/20	Macquarie	OCBC	8.9	11	Outperform	PB
07/30/20	UOB Kay Hian	OCBC	8.9	11.22	Buy
07/30/20	CIMB	Parkway Life	3.44	3.43	Hold
07/30/20	DBS Vickers	Sheng Siong	1.73	1.91	Buy	PER25x FY21
07/30/20	DBS Vickers	SIA	3.53	3.75	Hold	PB0.8x FY21/22
07/30/20	CIMB	SIA	3.53	3.55	Hold	PB0.84x FY22
07/30/20	OCBC	Starhill	0.47	0.53	Buy
07/30/20	Macquarie	UOB	20.02	21	Neutral	PB
07/30/20	OCBC	UOB	20.02	21.5	Hold
07/30/20	DBS Vickers	UOL	6.7	9.5	Buy

The HK commercial reits are in troubles.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/hong-kongs-commercial-lenders-edge-025659845.html

The HK commercial REITs are in trouble because HK banks will be taking actions against them by recalling their loans or getting them to top up the fallen values.  We can't blame the banks because they need to cut their risk exposures too.

We had stated this situation before below.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/04/why-am-i-not-interested-in-reits-and.html

We've just added the following feature.

We've just added the following feature so that our viewers can receive updates whenever we have some new postings.

Please feel free to be our followers to receive our latest updates so that you won't miss our important and accurate analyses anymore. Cheers!

MAS has capped SG banks' dividend payout to 60% and this causes SG bank stocks to tank.

https://www.theedgesingapore.com/news/banking-finance/mas-calls-banks-cap-dividends-fy20-60-fy19

SG banks' share prices drop immediately after MAS's announcement.  The share price reaction is totally expected and we're not saying this on hindsight as we've stated this before.

Why did MAS make such an announcement that would cause the share prices to drop and make investors lose money?

We had explained this before in April 2020.  Please take a look and you will understand what's happening.

https://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/04/what-will-companies-do-with-credit.html

Latest Canadian court disclosure showed that Meng didn't deceive HSBC.

http://en.people.cn/n3/2020/0724/c90000-9714596.html

The latest Canadian court showed that HSBC set up Meng to get itself off the hook.

HSBC's internal email correspondences showed that HSBC was in full knowledge of the relationship between Huawei and the Iranian company.  HSBC claimed that its junior executive didn't report the relationship to the top management but the junior executive was not that junior as he was the VP of the department.  Whatever miscommunication happened between HSBC and its VP shouldn't be pinned on Huawei as the internal documents showed that Huawei didn't hide the relationship.

This disclosure is in Meng's favour now and it puts the Canadian authority in a bad light because it would mean the arrest was politically motivated.

GSS Energy - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/20/19	DMG & Partners	GSS Energy	0.074	0.08	Neutral	DCF
10/08/19	DMG & Partners	GSS Energy	0.066	0.08	Neutral	DCF

Great Eastern - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
11/09/19	Citibank	Great Eastern	23.29	27.8	Buy
02/21/20	Citibank	Great Eastern	22.15	27	Buy
03/18/20	Citibank	Great Eastern	18.2	19.5	Hold

Grand Venture - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
08/19/19	CIMB	Grand Venture	0.22	0.22	Hold
07/06/20	CIMB	Grand Venture	0.22	0.262	Add

Stock calls for 29 July 2020

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/29/20	Kim Eng	ARA Logistics	0.635	0.8	Buy	DDM
07/29/20	DMG & Partners	ARA Logistics	0.635	0.72	Buy	DDM
07/29/20	UOB Kay Hian	ART	0.895	0.98	Hold	DDM
07/29/20	Phillip	ART	0.895	1.08	Buy
07/29/20	Kim Eng	ART	0.895	1.05	Buy
07/29/20	CIMB	ART	0.895	1.08	Add
07/29/20	DBS Vickers	Ascendas India Trust	1.33	1.85	Buy	DDM
07/29/20	DBS Vickers	Mapletree North Asia	0.875	1.05	Buy
07/29/20	OCBC	Mapletree North Asia	0.875	1.09	Buy
07/29/20	CIMB	Mapletree North Asia	0.875	1.12	Add
07/29/20	Amfrasers	Mermaid	0.07	0.085	Neutral	Sum of parts
07/29/20	UOB Kay Hian	Parkway Life	3.44	3.8	Buy	DDM
07/29/20	Lim & Tan	Parkway Life	3.44	0	Hold
07/29/20	phillip	Raffles Medical	0.92	0.94	Neutral	DCF
07/29/20	DBS Vickers	Singapore Post	0.74	0.64	Fully Valued	DCF, PER17x FY21
07/29/20	DMG & Partners	ST Engineering	3.31	3.9	Buy
07/29/20	CIMB	Starhill	0.475	0.706	Add	DDM
07/29/20	UOB Kay Hian	Top Glove	8.65	11.97	Buy	PER16x FY21, Ringgit target $36.90

The FED will remain status quo again!

I see no point in analyzing the Fed interest rate movement for now because the Fed has rejected a negative rate policy.  Therefore, I will just use Fedwatch tool for now.

Fedwatch tool is indicating that there won't be any change to the Fed interest rate policy which is in sync with the previous Fed's pronouncement.

US national guards were sent to suppress peaceful protestors.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53559501

US national guards were sent to suppress peaceful protestors.  This is the kind of human rights that the US is propagating.

The international human rights group is missing again and keeping quiet about this excessive force being used by the US government.

The US repo market is dead which is exactly just how we've envisioned.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/03/weve-correctly-predicted-end-of-good-us.html

We told you that the repo market would be wiped out when the US cut its rates to Zero.  It had happened.

Repo Market Data:

22 July - Zero deal!

23 July - Zero deal!

24 July - Zero deal!

27 July - Zero deal!

Reverse Repo Market Data:

22 July - Zero deal!

23 July - Zero deal!

24 July - Zero deal!

27 July - Zero deal!

Like we said before, we're not always right but we're also seldom wrong.  Therefore, when we tell you something, you better pay attention.

Golden Energy - Stock calls

Date	Analyst	Company	Last	Target	Call	Valuation
07/04/19	phillip	Golden Energy	0.225	0.24	Accumulate
08/23/19	phillip	Golden Energy	0.188	0.19	Neutral	PER10x