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Monday, August 17, 2020

Stock calls for 17 August 2020

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
08/17/20PhillipAPAC Realty0.3750.365NeutralDCF
08/17/20DMG & PartnersBumitama0.510.65BuyPER11x FY21
08/17/20Kim EngBumitama0.510.74Buy
08/17/20phillipComfortdelgro1.391.65AccumulateDCF
08/17/20UOB Kay HianComfortdelgro1.391.78Buy
08/17/20DBS VickersComfortdelgro1.391.63BuyPER15x FY21
08/17/20DMG & PartnersComfortdelgro1.391.55BuyDCF, PER17.6x FY21
08/17/20CIMBComfortdelgro1.391.4Hold
08/17/20Kim EngComfortdelgro1.391.76BuyDCF
08/17/20CIMBFirst Resources1.381.8Add
08/17/20DBS VickersFirst Resources1.381.7BuyDCF
08/17/20DMG & PartnersFirst Resources1.381.45NeutralPER14x FY21
08/17/20UOB Kay HianFirst Resources1.381.65Buy
08/17/20Kim EngFirst Resources1.381.79BuyPER18x FY20
08/17/20AmfrasersFrencken1.041.21outperformPER12x FY21
08/17/20DMG & PartnersFu Yu0.240.3BuyDCF
08/17/20DBS VickersFu Yu0.240.27HoldPER12.6x FY21
08/17/20Lim & TanFu Yu0.240Buy
08/17/20DMG & PartnersGolden Agri0.1540.13SellSum of parts
08/17/20CIMBGolden Agri0.1540.12Reduce
08/17/20CIMBKoufu0.6850.86Add
08/17/20Lim & TanOverseas Edu0.290Buy
08/17/20phillipPropnex0.590.7BuyDCF
08/17/20UOB Kay HianSasseur0.7750.99BuyDDM
08/17/20DBS VickersST Engineering3.393.4HoldSum of parts, Buy @ below $3.10
08/17/20UOB Kay HianST Engineering3.393.4HoldBuy @ $3.15
08/17/20CIMBST Engineering3.393.76Add
08/17/20OCBCST Engineering3.393.9Buy
08/17/20AmfrasersSunpower0.5750.91outperform
08/17/20DMG & PartnersThai Beverage0.6050.72BuySum of parts
08/17/20CIMBThai Beverage0.6050.7Hold
08/17/20AmfrasersThai Beverage0.6050.93Outperform
08/17/20AmfrasersUMS1.081.17NeutralPER13x FY21
08/17/20UOB Kay HianVenture20.2517.64HoldPER14.4x FY21, Buy @ $16

Singapore Nodx rose 6% in July 2020.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/singapore-july-exports-rise-6-003000134.html
Year on year changes (YOY):
July 2020: 6%
June 2020: 16.1% (Revised to 13.9%)
May 2020: -4.6%
April 2020: 9.7%
March 2020: 17.6%
February 2020: 3% (Revised to 3.1%)
January 2020: - 3.3%
December 2019: 2.4%
November 2019: - 5.9%
October 2019: - 12.3%
September 2019: -8.1%
August 2019: - 8.9%
July 2019: -11.2%
June 2019: -17.3%
May 2019: -15.9%
April 2019: -10%
March 2019: -11.7%
February 2019: 4.9%
January 2019: -10.1%
December 2018: -8.5%
November 2018: -2.6%
October 2018: 8.3%
September 2018: 8.3%
August 2018: 5%
July 2018: 11.8% (Corrected)
June 2018: 1.1%
May 2018: 15.5%
April 2018: 11.8%
March 2018: -2.7%
February 2018: -5.9%
January 2018: 13%
December 2017: 3.1%
November 2017: 9.1%
October 2017: 20.9%
September 2017: -1.1%
August 2017: 16.7%
July 2017: 8.5%
June 2017: 8.2%
May 2017: -1.2%
Apr 2017: -0.7%
Mar 2017: 16.5%
Feb 2017: 21.1%
Jan 2017: 8.6%

Saturday, August 15, 2020

Baltic dry index - 1577

Today, Thursday, August 13 2020, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 37 points, reaching 1577 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

=========================

Related stock: Sembcorp Marine, Cosco & Pan ocean.

US rig count - 935

 Related stock: Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine & Cosco.

How do you interpret PPI vs CPI and their impacts on the economy?

If you only know how to interpret the PPI and CPI headline numbers and their m-o-m or y-o-y changes, it only shows that you don't know how to analyze the data and also don't understand their economic relationship. 

Well, different people interpret the same data set differently. Therefore, I will show you how a brilliant analyst (me) does it.

Let's begin by looking at the economic relationship first.

In economic terminology, the process is depicted as follow:
CPI/PPI ----->> M1-M2 spread/3m-10y yield spread ----->> PMI ----->> GDP

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2019/06/the-true-picture-of-us-economy.html

Next, we can learn about PPI and CPI impacts.

In a nutshell, a producer will be motivated to produce more when the PPI is rising because of the rising profit margin while a rising CPI will sap consumer demands because it diminishes the consumer purchasing power.

When the PPI is greater than the CPI, it will motivate the producer to produce more. Therefore, this phenomenon is known as an inventory growth phase and this will increase the GDP under the investment component (See below).

GDP = Government spending + Investment + Consumption + Net Exports (X-M)

The reverse is true when the PPI is lesser than the CPI since it motivates the producer to produce lesser. Thus, this phenomenon is known as an inventory reduction phrase and this will decrease the GDP.

The most recent PPI vs CPI chart is showing that the PPI is below the CPI and is in the negative or contracting territory. Moreover, the recent upward slope of the PPI denotes that the producer is reducing the inventory passively instead of proactively (downward slope).

How true is this conclusion (inventory reduction phase)?

We can find another alternative variable (PMI inventories subindex) to verify and authenticate this.

http://sg-stock.blogspot.com/2020/08/us-ism-pmi-had-shown-great-improvement.html

The PMI inventories subindex is in a contracting mode (below 50) which also substantiates our conclusion (inventory reduction phase).

This conclusion (inventory reduction phase) is bad news for the GDP unless the other GDP components can neutralize this negative factor.

Friday, August 14, 2020

Kimly - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
08/13/19DMG & PartnersKimly0.2350.23NeutralDCF
10/15/19DMG & PartnersKimly0.2250.23Neutral
11/28/19DMG & PartnersKimly0.240.24NeutralDCF
12/11/19DMG & PartnersKimly0.2450.24Neutral
06/16/20DMG & PartnersKimly0.220.24Neutral
06/26/20DMG & PartnersKimly0.2250.26BuyDCF

Keppel Reit - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
07/04/19DMG & PartnersKeppel Reit1.281.12Neutral
07/16/19CIMBKeppel Reit1.261.41AddDDM
07/16/19DMG & PartnersKeppel Reit1.261.2NeutralDDM
07/16/19UOB Kay HianKeppel Reit1.261.37Buy
07/16/19DBS VickersKeppel Reit1.261.45BuyDCF
07/16/19Lim & TanKeppel Reit1.260Hold
08/06/19DBS VickersKeppel Reit1.21.45Buy
08/27/19UOB Kay HianKeppel Reit1.241.21HoldBuy @ $1.1
10/02/19DBS VickersKeppel Reit1.261.45BuyDCF
10/02/19DMG & PartnersKeppel Reit1.261.23NeutralDDM
10/17/19CIMBKeppel Reit1.241.35AddDDM
10/17/19UOB Kay HianKeppel Reit1.241.2HoldDDM, Buy @ $1.1
10/17/19Lim & TanKeppel Reit1.240Hold
12/04/19DBS VickersKeppel Reit1.231.45Buy
12/10/19DMG & PartnersKeppel Reit1.251.23Neutral
01/24/20DBS VickersKeppel Reit1.271.45BuyDCF
01/24/20CIMBKeppel Reit1.271.38Add
02/04/20DBS VickersKeppel Reit1.211.45Buy
03/18/20DBS VickersKeppel Reit0.961.45Buy
04/13/20UOB Kay HianKeppel Reit0.951.3Buy
04/23/20CIMBKeppel Reit0.991.2AddDDM
04/23/20DMG & PartnersKeppel Reit0.991.23Neutral
04/24/20Lim & TanKeppel Reit1.040Buy on weakness
05/04/20DMG & PartnersKeppel Reit1.061.07NeutralDDM
06/08/20DBS VickersKeppel Reit1.161.35BuyDCF
06/08/20UOB Kay HianKeppel Reit1.161.3Buy
06/23/20DMG & PartnersKeppel Reit1.131.07Neutral
07/02/20UOB Kay HianKeppel Reit1.111.3Buy
07/09/20DBS VickersKeppel Reit1.11.35Buy
07/21/20DMG & PartnersKeppel Reit1.091.1NeutralDDM
07/21/20Lim & TanKeppel Reit1.090Buy
07/21/20CIMBKeppel Reit1.091.2Add

Keppel Pacific - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
07/12/19DMG & PartnersKeppel Pacific0.790.88BuyDDM
07/18/19DBS VickersKeppel Pacific0.820.9Buy
09/06/19DMG & PartnersKeppel Pacific0.740.88BuyDDM
09/09/19DBS VickersKeppel Pacific0.750.9Buy
10/16/19DBS VickersKeppel Pacific0.760.9BuyDCF
10/16/19DMG & PartnersKeppel Pacific0.760.88BuyDDM
12/10/19DMG & PartnersKeppel Pacific0.7750.88Buy
01/22/20DMG & PartnersKeppel Pacific0.7650.88BuyDDM
01/24/20DBS VickersKeppel Pacific0.7850.9BuyDCF
03/20/20DBS VickersKeppel Pacific0.3950.9Buy
04/14/20DMG & PartnersKeppel Pacific0.540.76BuyDDM
06/08/20DMG & PartnersKeppel Pacific0.7250.8BuyDDM
06/26/20DBS VickersKeppel Pacific0.680.85Buy
07/24/20DMG & PartnersKeppel Pacific0.7150.8BuyDDM

Stock calls for 14 August 2020

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
08/14/20DBS VickersAPAC Realty0.380.4HoldPER11.4x FY21
08/14/20DBS VickersChina Everbright0.2350.33Buy
08/14/20CIMBChina Sunsine0.320.38Add
08/14/20OCBCCity Developments8.4610.64Buy
08/14/20CIMBCity Developments8.4610.1Add
08/14/20DMG & PartnersCity Developments8.469.5BuyRNAV (45% discount)
08/14/20UOB Kay HianCity Developments8.469.2Buy
08/14/20DBS VickersDelfi0.7250.98BuyPER18x FY21
08/14/20DMG & PartnersFood Empire0.620.75BuyPER12x FY20
08/14/20UOB Kay HianFrencken1.241.37Buy
08/14/20DBS VickersFrencken1.241.43BuyPER13.2x FY21
08/14/20CIMBFrencken1.241.06Reduce
08/14/20UOB Kay HianPropnex0.5850.69Buy
08/14/20DBS VickersSunpower0.580.69BuyDCF
08/14/20UOB Kay HianSunpower0.580.92BuySum of parts
08/14/20DBS VickersUMS1.181.37BuyPER15x FY21
08/14/20CIMBUOL6.647.29Add
08/14/20OCBCWilmar4.875.4Buy

Thursday, August 13, 2020

Keppel Infrastructure - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
07/16/19DBS VickersKeppel Infrastructure0.5050.58BuyDDM
10/15/19DBS VickersKeppel Infrastructure0.5450.58Buy
01/22/20DBS VickersKeppel Infrastructure0.550.58BuyDDM
04/21/20Lim & TanKeppel Infrastructure0.4750Buy
04/22/20DBS VickersKeppel Infrastructure0.480.54BuyDDM
04/24/20Credit SuisseKeppel Infrastructure0.490.57Outperform
07/23/20DBS VickersKeppel Infrastructure0.5350.57BuyDDM
07/23/20Lim & TanKeppel Infrastructure0.5350Hold

Keppel DC Reit - Stock calls

DateAnalystCompanyLastTargetCallValuation
07/10/19CIMBKeppel DC Reit1.671.54Add
07/17/19OCBCKeppel DC Reit1.711.93Buy
07/17/19DBS VickersKeppel DC Reit1.711.9BuyDCF
07/18/19PhillipKeppel DC Reit1.731.71HoldDDM
07/18/19CIMBKeppel DC Reit1.731.67HoldDDM
07/23/19AmfrasersKeppel DC Reit1.751.71Neutral
07/26/19OCBCKeppel DC Reit1.711.93Hold
08/26/19PhillipKeppel DC Reit1.741.71Neutral
09/17/19OCBCKeppel DC Reit1.82.08BuyDDM
09/17/19AmfrasersKeppel DC Reit1.81.95Outperform
09/18/19CIMBKeppel DC Reit1.931.82HoldDDM
09/19/19PhillipKeppel DC Reit1.972AccumulateDDM
10/08/19DBS VickersKeppel DC Reit1.92.2BuyDCF
10/16/19CIMBKeppel DC Reit1.991.88HoldDDM
10/16/19PhillipKeppel DC Reit1.992.06AccumulateDDM
10/16/19Lim & TanKeppel DC Reit1.990Hold
10/17/19AmfrasersKeppel DC Reit22.11Outperform
10/17/19OCBCKeppel DC Reit22.08Hold
11/25/19PhillipKeppel DC Reit2.012.06Accumulate
12/18/19DBS VickersKeppel DC Reit1.972.23BuyDCF
01/22/20CIMBKeppel DC Reit2.252.03HoldDDM
01/23/20DBS VickersKeppel DC Reit2.222.4BuyDCF
02/04/20DBS VickersKeppel DC Reit2.272.4Buy
02/25/20DBS VickersKeppel DC Reit2.52.55HoldDCF
03/02/20DBS VickersKeppel DC Reit2.322.55HoldDCF
03/11/20AmfrasersKeppel DC Reit2.382.19Neutral
03/13/20PhillipKeppel DC Reit2.142.06Accumulate
03/19/20CIMBKeppel DC Reit1.862.17Add
04/22/20CIMBKeppel DC Reit2.442.17Hold
04/22/20OCBCKeppel DC Reit2.442.54Hold
04/24/20PhillipKeppel DC Reit2.452.2HoldDDM
07/22/20PhillipKeppel DC Reit2.752.57NeutralDDM, Up from $2.31
07/22/20DBS VickersKeppel DC Reit2.752.8HoldDCF
07/22/20CIMBKeppel DC Reit2.752.88HoldDDM
07/22/20Lim & TanKeppel DC Reit2.750Hold
07/22/20OCBCKeppel DC Reit2.752.86Hold